Brief Analysis of Cryptocurrency Market (August 5, 2025)
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is as high as 94.4%. Daly stated that "there may be more than two rate cuts this year," reinforcing expectations for easing. The US dollar is weakening, and US Treasury yields are declining, bringing dual benefits of valuation recovery and sentiment boost to the crypto market. However, we must remain vigilant about potential rebounds in inflation or employment, which could delay the easing process and lead to short-term backlash in the market.
From a technical perspective, BTC has pulled back from its mid-July high, showing a corrective rebound after a breakdown. Currently, the rebound lacks sufficient volume and has not formed a V-shaped reversal. Short-term support is at 110,000; if broken, it will test 105,000; resistance is in the 115,000-116,000 range. The main strategy is to short high and long low.
Regarding ETH, it has recently rebounded to around 3700 due to positive stimuli, but has faced multiple resistances, and the market has not yet broken through. Key support is at 3600; if broken, it will retrace to 3400; a breakout above 3700 may challenge the previous high of 3941.
In terms of altcoins, if ETH can stabilize and strengthen, L2, AI, RWA, etc., will benefit from the main chain linkage, entering a rotation explosion window. Focus on TVL expansion and on-chain hot assets.
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