The current market is entering a period of high volatility adjustment under the interplay of macroeconomic bearish and bullish expectations. Trump announced that he will impose high tariffs on the EU and multiple industries, escalating geopolitical risks and global trade friction, leading funds to flow into safe-haven assets, with gold surging and risk assets under pressure. CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is as high as 92.4%. Although the expectation of monetary easing is positive for the risk market, it has not yet materialized, forming a short-term 'bullish realization' game.
Bitcoin's overall network computing power has reached a historical high, reflecting miners' confidence and improved network security, which is a medium to long-term positive; however, the price has not risen in sync, creating a 'divergence' between computing power and price, compounded by adjustments in U.S. stocks and the bleeding of mainstream coins, which has instead created short-term pressure.
On the technical front for BTC, after confirming a drop below the box support, the pullback repair has been completed, and the current second wave decline has begun, with a short-term test of the 110,000 support likely. ETH continues to be constrained by the 3,700 resistance level, consistently decreasing in volume, and after breaking the 3,560 support, it may test downward towards 3,450.
In the altcoin space, fund rotation is weak, with most projects driven only by short-term themes, showing no sustained major rise, overall risk outweighing opportunity. It is currently recommended to continue holding cash or light positions and observe, focusing on the key support performance of BTC/ETH, before deciding on future allocations.
