Under the current dual game of macro and technology, the cryptocurrency market has experienced short-term fluctuations and rebounds, but the overall trend remains unclear. On the fundamentals, U.S. Trade Representative Tai announced high tariffs on multiple countries, but at the same time, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is as high as 89.1%, significantly improving liquidity expectations and driving up cryptocurrency assets. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 64, indicating a warming investor sentiment.
On the technical side for BTC, after breaking below the key support of 116K on the weekly chart, it stopped falling at MA7. Although it rebounded due to rate cut expectations, the trading volume is insufficient, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound. If it can maintain above 116K with increased volume in the short term, it is likely to welcome a new round of increases; otherwise, it still faces risks of high-level fluctuations. For ETH, the structure is weak, with fierce battles between bulls and bears on the daily chart. The 3600 point level is a key pressure zone, and only a volume breakout may challenge 3700.
Overall, altcoins have retraced gains, and FOMO sentiment can easily lead to chasing prices and getting stuck. Currently, attention should be prioritized on rotation opportunities driven by mainstream coins. It is recommended to focus on L2 projects with clear narrative support (such as RWA) and high capital concentration, flexibly adopting a rolling rotation strategy to cope with rapidly changing market hotspots. Overall, whether the rate cut is realized will be the key factor determining the trend in the second half of the year.
