【July 31 Crypto Market Analysis】
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in its July meeting for the seventh consecutive time, emphasizing the need to keep high rates for a longer period to ensure inflation decreases. While core PCE has declined, it remains above target, and employment shows slight signs of weakness, leading to market expectations for only one rate cut this year. Trump has reignited tariff issues, proposing heavy taxes on Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, significantly increasing geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
BTC quickly rose after briefly falling below 116K, with the daily line forming a long lower shadow bullish candle. Overall, it remains in a high-level range between 120K and 116K. Trading volume continues to shrink, and market sentiment is cautious, indicating a change in trend is imminent. Watch for a breakout above 120K or a drop below 116K for directional choice. The short-term strategy focuses on selling high and buying low within the range.
ETH's structure is healthy, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement; however, the characteristics of shrinking volume during rises and expanding volume during corrections indicate a lack of upward momentum. As the monthly line approaches close, caution is advised for potential pullbacks after highs. Watch for resistance at 3880-3920 and support at 3740-3780.
The sentiment around altcoins is weak, severely affected by regulation and policy, with high speculation. It is advisable to avoid weak coins that are moving sideways, and prioritize participating in strong structures that have 'increased volume and pullbacks that do not break'.
