On a macro level, as of the latest data, the price of Bitcoin has reached $111,800, significantly up from the previous high of $109,800 on January 20. According to Coingecko, trading volume in the past 24 hours reached $71.685 billion, reflecting high market activity and strong demand from players.
More notably, Bitcoin's market capitalization soared to $2.209 trillion, successfully surpassing Amazon's $2.14 trillion, making it the fifth largest asset by market value globally. This milestone not only showcases Bitcoin's strong potential as a digital asset but also marks its gradual transition from a fringe investment to a core component of global finance, alongside gold and top tech companies.
Bitcoin's astonishing surge is closely linked to the influx of institutional capital. According to TheBlock, BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $8.9 billion this year, ranking fourth among global ETFs. In the past month, BlackRock IBIT attracted $6.5 billion in funds, bringing its assets under management to $66.9 billion, second only to VOO, VTI, and SPLG.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF market is equally booming, with a total net inflow of $7.6 billion in 2025, including nearly $7.4 billion in the past month, highlighting institutional preferences for crypto assets. In addition, the US SEC recently approved BlackRock's physical redemption of the spot Ethereum ETF, injecting new vitality into the crypto market.
The current explosion of Bitcoin is closely related to changes in the regulatory environment. The advancement of stablecoin legislation and the gradual easing of regulatory attitudes have injected confidence into the market, attracting more capital inflows. Meanwhile, despite the failed 20-year US Treasury auction putting pressure on US stocks, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong resilience, quickly recovering lost ground and even rising in tandem with gold. This convergence with traditional safe-haven assets indicates that players are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as 'digital gold' amid economic uncertainty. This role transition may open up broader market space for Bitcoin.
On-chain data provides us with an important observational window. Despite Bitcoin's price reaching new highs, the BTC stock on platforms continues to decline. This indicates that players are inclined to hold long-term or cash out at high positions through OTC, either adding positions or transferring assets to private wallets. Looking back at the last bull market, when prices rose, a large amount of BTC flowed into platforms for high-position selling, while this cycle is completely the opposite, with exchange stocks continuously shrinking. This supply-demand imbalance provides a solid foundation for price increases, and the starting point of this trend is closely related to a significant event.
This year, Trump proposed the idea of making BTC a strategic reserve asset for the US at the Bitcoin Consensus Conference, which quickly ignited market enthusiasm. Since then, the stock of BTC on platforms has accelerated its outflow, as players seem to be motivated by policy signals, reinforcing their confidence in long-term holding. This strategic endorsement not only enhances Bitcoin's legitimacy but also pushes prices higher by reducing market circulation. The resonance between politics and the market is injecting new momentum into Bitcoin's rise.
Data on long-term holdings (holding BTC for over a year) is a reliable indicator of market trends. Currently, long-term holders are in the distribution phase, which is typically accompanied by rising prices. Historically, this indicator has an inverse relationship with price, and it is currently in the fifth large-scale distribution cycle, possibly forming a double top pattern similar to the fourth cycle. While it is impossible to precisely determine the top, as long as the macro environment remains stable, Bitcoin still has upward potential. It is important to note that this data has a lag, making it suitable for trend judgment rather than precise top predictions.
On-chain data shows that the total open interest of Bitcoin contracts across the network has reached approximately 724,200 coins, with a value exceeding $80 billion, hitting $80.82 billion, setting a new historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 18.98%. Among them, the open interest of CME contracts stands at 163,400 Bitcoins (approximately $18.23 billion), ranking first, accounting for 22.55%; a certain An contract's open interest stands at 122,100 Bitcoins (approximately $13.64 billion), ranking second, accounting for 16.87%.
US spot ETF data: The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 3,120 coins yesterday, worth $329 million; the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 25,600 coins yesterday, worth $64.8 million;
Overall, the data from the Bitcoin futures market has added more clues to this round of price increase. The open interest of Bitcoin contracts reached 724,200 coins, with a value exceeding $80.8 billion, setting a new historical high. Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio dropped to 0.4, creating a historical low, indicating that there are too many short players. This imbalance between longs and shorts suggests the continuation of a short squeeze, and the behavior of short covering further drives up the price of Bitcoin. In the short term, as long as the shorts have not completely collapsed, the upward momentum of Bitcoin may still be strong.