On the macro level: The U.S. Senate is accelerating the advancement of the (Guidance for Innovative Stablecoin and Establishment Act) (GENIUS Act), which is expected to pass as early as May 26. This bill aims to establish a unified federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. Previously, the bill faced controversy due to potential interests involving the Trump family, and Democrat D had obstructed its progress on May 8. Currently, the related provisions have been removed, and the bill is expected to be smoothly enacted.
The latest 13F filings show that Abu Dhabi's Mubadala has significantly increased its holdings in BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). As of the end of March 2025, its holdings have increased to 8.7269 million shares, with a holding value of $408.5 million, expanding further from 8.2355 million shares at the end of 2024. This move not only highlights the global top capital's favor towards crypto assets but also injects new momentum into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.
Since May, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have been attracting significant capital, with notable net inflows. On May 2, 5, and 9, inflows of $675 million, $425 million, and $335 million were recorded, with an additional $115 million added yesterday (May 15). Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led with a single-day inflow of $410 million, becoming the 'darling' of institutional investors.
The repayment progress of the bankrupt platform FTX brings positive signals to the market. Following the first round of repayments to small creditors, FTX plans to initiate the second round of distributions on May 30, involving over $5 billion, covering claims below and above $50,000. According to FTX creditor representative Sunil, Kraken has begun confirming repayment arrangements with users.
The latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked heated market discussions. In the bond market, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury has significantly declined, with CME data showing a reduced probability of no rate cuts in July. The market tends to believe that the Fed may adjust its inflation target, shortening the high-interest period. However, the U.S. stock market reacted oppositely, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 retreating, causing some players to worry about the continuation of tightening policies. As a result, Bitcoin fell back after reaching $101,300 yesterday, with short-term volatility intensifying.
ETF data: The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 15,300 coins yesterday, valued at $39.8 million; the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 1,111 coins yesterday, valued at $115 million.
On-chain data: Bitcoin has returned to $103,000, however, the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss indicator (LTH-NUPL) has dropped to 0.69, equivalent to when it was $85,000 on April 1. This indicator reflects the profit status of holders for more than 155 days. The decline in the indicator is due to buyers from December 2024 turning into long-term holders, with high purchase costs reducing profit ratios. Surprisingly, the price increase has not sparked market enthusiasm, and the sluggish LTH-NUPL reveals a lack of market confidence.
Market update: The current turnover rate of Bitcoin continues to decline, indicating that players are less concerned about short-term fluctuations and are more focused on long-term value. The price is fluctuating around $103,000, with $101,500 as short-term support, while the range between $93,000 and $98,000 is considered a more reliable support level.#比特币
