On the macro level, Federal Reserve officials have been vocal, providing the latest guidance on monetary policy direction. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly stated that the current policy stance is robust, and the Fed remains highly sensitive to inflation risks. Yesterday, speeches from several officials further clarified that the Fed has no intention to adjust monetary policy in the short term, with this 'wait-and-see' attitude potentially extending into June or even July. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously emphasized that the impact of tariff policy on inflation remains to be observed, and its nature could be a one-time shock or a long-term trend, requiring more data to support decision-making. This cautious strategy highlights the Fed's robust thinking in addressing economic uncertainty.
Additionally, the Texas legislature has passed the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act, allowing the state to include Bitcoin as an official investment asset. This bill has passed its second reading and only awaits the governor's signature to become law. This move not only injects new momentum into Texas's financial innovation but may also prompt other states to follow suit, further advancing Bitcoin's position in mainstream finance.
On the regulatory front, the US SEC has recently postponed several decisions regarding crypto ETF approvals, including the 21Shares Core XRP Trust, Grayscale XRP Trust, and Grayscale Dogecoin Trust. The SEC stated that given the complex legal and policy considerations involved in the proposals, it has decided to solicit public opinions to ensure prudent assessment. Additionally, the SEC has also delayed the decision on Bitwise's Ethereum ETF staking plan. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the SEC typically uses the full approval period, and a final decision is expected in October, with a low likelihood of early approval. This reflects the regulatory body's cautious approach in the digital asset space.
On the market level, the Bitcoin craze continues to heat up. According to Bitcoin Magazine, Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive company plans to purchase about 75,000 Bitcoins at a discounted price, including assets from Mt. Gox, which may further stimulate market sentiment. In terms of data, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures climbed to $72 billion on May 20, an increase of 8% from the previous week, setting a record. CME leads with $16.9 billion, while another firm follows with $12 billion. CoinGlass points out that institutional players are the main force behind this craze, and short positions are concentrated in the $107,000 to $108,000 range, totaling about $1.2 billion.
On-chain data can be divided into two main categories:
Short-term holders (STH) - holding BTC < 155 days
Long-term holders (LTH) - holding BTC ≥ 155 days
Each group reacts differently to price changes - their MVRV shows us the scale of their unrealized profits, measuring their sentiment.
Since the low of $74,000:
MVRV: 1.74 → 2.33 (+74% → +133%)
STH MVRV: 0.82 → 1.13 (from -18% loss to +13% profit)
LTH MVRV: 2.91 → 3.30 (+191% → +230%)
Profitability has risen across the board - boosting confidence and supporting the rebound.
The Ethereum Pectra upgrade has not yet translated into a surge in network participation. Since the upgrade, the average number of new and recovering addresses has decreased compared to the beginning of the year (down 1.8% and 8.4%, respectively), but the churn rate has also significantly decreased (-8.5%).
US spot ETF data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 3,120 coins yesterday, worth $329 million; the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 25,600 coins yesterday, worth $64.8 million;
Overall, market turnover has risen with price increases, short-term players have become the main trading force, while recent bargain hunters have significantly reduced their holdings, and long-term holders remain steady. The chip distribution shows that the $93,000-$98,000 range is the strongest support, while around $102,000, although holding over 1.4 million Bitcoins, most are short-term holdings, and negative news may trigger selling risks.
Today, Bitcoin showed strong momentum, reaching $107,985, just a step away from its historical high. In the past week, the market has lacked significant macro data support, and price fluctuations have been more driven by external factors. Trends in Trump’s policies, signs of easing China-US trade relations, and even the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could all serve as catalysts for pushing Bitcoin higher. Additionally, the long/short ratio has dropped to a historic low of 0.44, with short sentiment high. On May 20, the open interest in Bitcoin futures reached a record $72 billion, indicating that a short squeeze may be brewing. The current high-level fluctuations may be a game before the shorts are 'squeezed out', and close attention needs to be paid to changes in the long/short ratio, as real adjustments may come after the shorts collapse.