On a macro level, Trump's tax reform bill was originally seen as a 'booster' for the U.S. economy, but it encountered setbacks in Congress last week. In a procedural vote, five conservative Republican lawmakers stood in alignment with Democrats to oppose the bill. They demanded significant cuts to Medicaid to balance the budget deficit, demonstrating the power of fiscal discipline. Republican leadership acknowledged that the bill needs further refinement to gain enough support.
Nevertheless, a House panel recently passed a tax reform bill, opening the door for a possible full vote this week. The bill promises to significantly reduce the tax burden, invigorating both businesses and individuals, but internal divisions remain a major obstacle. The final outcome of the tax reform not only concerns the economic outlook of the United States but will also profoundly impact global market sentiment.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is experiencing its 'moment of glory.' BlackRock recently disclosed that its BlackRock IBIT holds 659,700 Bitcoins, accounting for over 3% of the total supply, with a total market value of up to 65.9 billion dollars. This data highlights the unprecedented enthusiasm of institutional players for digital assets.
Meanwhile, El Salvador's Bitcoin strategic reserves are performing impressively. According to The Bitcoin Office, the value of El Salvador's Bitcoin assets has risen to 655 million dollars, increasing by 137 million dollars in one month. This successful case provides a reference for other institutions and highlights Bitcoin's potential as a global reserve asset.
Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has caused market turbulence, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant downplayed it, stating, 'Moody's rating is irrelevant.' However, the market clearly disagrees, with 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields breaking 5%, and U.S. stock futures falling over 1% after the opening.
Bitcoin surged during low liquidity periods but was quickly brought back down by Asian players seeking safe-haven investments. Historical experience shows that the impact of credit rating downgrades is usually short-term. The current market is driven by multiple factors including politics, economics, and monetary policy, with Trump's policy statements acting as a barometer for market fluctuations. Optimism regarding tariff policies remains, but the Fed's dot plot in June and the expiration of tariff exemptions in July may disrupt the calm.
In terms of market conditions, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is at a critical stage. The 93,000 to 98,000 dollar range is a strong support zone, firmly established. The chips around 82,000 dollars have been mostly cleared, with remaining players mostly long-term holders. Meanwhile, the chips around 102,000 dollars are primarily short-term speculators, making it difficult to form effective support. The daily Bitcoin chart might form a 'Dark Cloud Cover' pattern tomorrow morning, which, if confirmed, could signal a short-term top, and a potential pullback in the trend. Tonight's U.S. stock market opening and the closing at 8 a.m. tomorrow are particularly important and will determine the subsequent trend.
