At the macro level, the remarks of Federal Reserve official Bostic have cooled the market. He expects only one interest rate cut in 2025, with economic growth rates possibly between 0.5% and 1%, but emphasized that the economy will not fall into recession. He pointed out that if trade negotiations go smoothly, the Fed may take further actions. This statement echoes Powell's recent admission that the economic model underestimates inflation, indicating that easing policies are unlikely in the short term. As a result, the crypto market has seen increased volatility, with BTC experiencing several rollercoaster movements within 24 hours, hitting a high of over $107,000 and a low approaching $102,000, with an astonishing amplitude.
Meanwhile, there has been a turning point in the global situation. Trump announced a two-hour phone call with Putin, during which the two sides reached a positive consensus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Russia and Ukraine set to immediately engage in ceasefire negotiations aimed at ending the war. Trump emphasized that the details of the negotiations will be negotiated by both parties themselves, and Russia expressed a willingness to engage in large-scale trade with the US post-war, while Ukraine is expected to benefit from trade through reconstruction. Additionally, Trump has informed leaders such as Zelensky and EU Commission President von der Leyen, with the Vatican also expressing its intention to host the negotiations. This news has injected optimism into the market, with US stocks turning from a 1% decline at the opening to a slight increase, and BTC, gold, and US stocks rising in rare synchrony, reflecting the market's complex sentiment towards uncertainty.
In the crypto space, the US SEC has postponed its decision on the Solana spot ETF proposals submitted by 21Shares, Bitwise, VanEck, and Canary Capital, stating that more time is needed to assess legal and policy issues. The SEC emphasized that this does not indicate an approval or rejection stance towards the applications, with the final approval deadline expected in August 2025. The recent performance of the BTC market has been described as 'magical.' Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, revealed that his company MSTR achieved a 4.8% BTC yield in the first 49 days of Q2, holding $60.7 billion in BTC and realizing a floating profit of over $7.7 billion since the beginning of the year.
Market sentiment is also affected by the China-US trade friction. The US Department of Commerce recently escalated restrictions on Dragon Brother chip exports, targeting high-performance AI chips such as NVIDIA H100, A100, etc. Dragon Brother has warned of retaliatory measures. Coupled with Moody's downgrade, US stocks opened down more than 1%, but subsequently digested the bad news, with the Nasdaq and S&P turning to rise. However, the US bond market does not look optimistic, with the ten-year US Treasury yield maintaining at 4.445%, and the twenty- and thirty-year yields approaching 5%, indicating that liquidity risks remain.
However, the movements of large funds on platforms reveal different signals. The net outflow data of BTC from the three major platforms OK, Some Security, and Coinbase is noteworthy. The net outflow peak on OK platform reached 800 BTC per day in May, Some Security 1,300 BTC per day, and Coinbase even reached 2,300 BTC. Historical data shows that similar net outflow peaks often occur at market highs; for example, when BTC broke $70,000 in March 2024, OK had a daily net outflow of 400 BTC, and Some Security 1,800 BTC; when BTC broke $100,000 in December 2024, the net outflow was even greater. These data seemingly reflect large funds chasing high prices, but when combined with OTC trading data, the situation becomes nuanced. Glassnode tracking shows that during the peak period of BTC net outflow, the number of OTC trades surged simultaneously, suggesting that large funds may be cashing out through OTC at high levels, rather than holding long-term.
ETF data: The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 6,272 coins yesterday, valued at $667 million; the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 5,487 coins yesterday, valued at $13.7 million;
On-chain data shows that small investors holding less than 1 coin have shifted from selling to slightly increasing their positions (about 0.55), indicating a recovery in market confidence. Medium to large investors holding 100-1,000 coins and 1,000-10,000 coins have increased their holdings more significantly, with ratios reaching 0.9 and 0.85 respectively, reflecting optimism about long-term value. Only those holding 1-10 coins remain net sellers, possibly due to short-term profit-taking.
Overall, the short-term trading difficulty for Bitcoin is quite high. Although there is a certain probability of reaching a new high in the future, the sustainability is not optimistic. If a new high is reached again, the risk will likely come! BTC on-chain data reflects the confidence of holders, but the synchrony of net outflow from platforms and the surge in OTC trading indicate that major funds may be 'lifting and unloading' at high levels. This strategy exploits market FOMO sentiment by pushing prices up through low selling pressure, secretly transferring chips to OTC for cashing out, rather than genuinely being bullish. From the chip perspective, a significant amount of chips has accumulated around $102,000, forming a certain level of support; however, the range between $93,000 and $98,000 remains very solid support, as few have reduced their holdings in this range, which is still the densest area of chips.#比特币走势分析