I. Core conclusion
146 is the 'deciding factor' for the bulls and bears at the 4-hour level:
- Failing to stabilize indicates weakness: Weak rebound, lower support levels 142.4→140.2→138 (gradual downside risk).
- Stabilizing indicates strength: Confirm rebound, upper resistance levels 148.5→151.3→154 (opportunities for gradual breakthroughs).
II. Detailed analysis
1. Bearish scenario (losing 146)
- Signal: Price continues to be suppressed below $146, 4-hour level volume is shrinking, and the height of the rebound is gradually decreasing.
- Role of support levels:
- $142.4: The first support for short-term declines; if broken, may quickly drop to 140.2.
- 140.2: Mid-term bull-bear dividing line; if lost, could trigger panic selling, accelerating towards 138.
- 138: Strong support area; a break may open up space below 135, and caution is needed for a deep correction.
2. Bullish scenario (stabilizing above 146)
- Signal: Price breaks above 146 with increased volume and stabilizes for more than 4 hours, short-term moving averages turn upward, and volume expands.
- Role of resistance levels:
- 148.5: The first resistance for rebounds; if broken, market sentiment turns optimistic, targeting 151.3.
- 151.3: Mid-term key resistance; if broken, may attract chasing funds, confirming bullish trends.
- 154: Strong resistance area; if stabilized, it is expected to challenge the 160 integer mark, opening up upward space.
III. Operational strategy and risk warning
1. Strategy recommendation
- Conservative type: Wait for a clear direction (break above 146 or below 142.4) before entering, to avoid losses in consolidation.
- Aggressive type:
- Enter long with a light position near 142.4 on the decline, target 146, and set a stop loss below 140.
- Enter short with a light position near 148.5, target 146, and set a stop loss above 150.
2. Risk warning
- Sector correlation: As a public chain token, SOL's movements are easily influenced by Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), requiring simultaneous attention to mainstream coin trends.
- Position management: The stop loss for a single trade should not exceed 2% of total capital to avoid full position speculation and prevent spikes (e.g., quick rebounds after briefly breaking 138).
IV. Summary
Today's SOL market revolves around 146, with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears; the 4-hour trend determines the short-term direction:
- Downward: Support levels form a 'defensive line' in sequence; if there are consecutive breaks, caution is needed for a trend reversal.
- Upward: Resistance levels gradually rise; breaking key points may initiate a wave rebound.
It is advisable to use the 4-hour closing price as the basis for breakthrough confirmation, flexibly adjust positions based on changes in volume, and avoid premature entry into the consolidation range.$SOL #SOL走势