美国关税

#美国关税
Trump is once again spewing venom!

Imposing an 80% tariff on China seems to be the right move!!!

The current market fluctuations truly hinge on Trump's words!

#大跌
The reason for the big drop has finally been found
Targeted explosion!
Targeted explosion!
Targeted explosion!
It’s not the California bill, the US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or the ETH hackers laundering coins.
It’s the dealers who joined forces to crack down on the big dog investors.
A direct explosion of 159 million US dollars.
The dealers know that the retail investors have no money............
It’s ruthless!

Is the bull market really gone?
Many retail investors are confused, should I cut my losses and leave, gradually buy the dip, or just lie flat and wait for death, or hold cash and wait for the market to rise? My mind is a mess, unable to tell north from south? Now I can only say that the price has indeed fallen below the bull-bear boundary.
Recently, there has been a sharp decline, and the whole market is in tears, the wailing sound has spread from Ukraine in Europe to retail investors on Wall Street. Ultimately, overwhelmed by sadness, exhausted mentally and physically, deeply distressed, it is still the retail investors in the crypto circle who bear all the pain and torment.
The United States is burdened with $45 trillion in national debt, pressing Trump to the point of breathlessness. Wherever there are interests, wherever money can be obtained, they will stop at nothing to pay off debts. The tariffs on Mexico and Canada should be implemented in March. Unless both countries surrender and obediently comply.
Ukraine, in the end, still negotiates and accepts the agreement from the United States. From this perspective, a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war seems possible. Great Russia is once again embracing the United States, and just like all past history, directly points its guns at Country C.
To be honest, the greatest harm to the people of Country C has never been from the United States, but from Great Russia. If you look for real history, you will know that a nation with a history of brutal aggression, once it catches its breath, will first slaughter its former partners and neighboring countries. We all say, a dog doesn't change its habit of eating shit.
Currently, looking at the daily level of BTC, it has fallen below the bull-bear boundary, breaking below the bottom of the upward structure, with 90,000 as an important key support. So what can be confirmed about the current market is that the trend is downward, and one should reduce positions at key resistance levels during rebounds. Moreover, once the trend goes downward, it cannot immediately recover; it is only advised that everyone should trade short-term recently, make money and run, do not be overly ambitious. Currently, the upper pressure is around 90,000, and the short-term support below is 85,000.
At the weekly level, the MACD has formed a death cross, and the moving averages have also formed a death cross; the possibility of an immediate reversal is very small. I once thought and reminded multiple times that if there was a chance to rebound in February-March, one should clear their positions and leave the market; now, it seems there is no opportunity at all. The general direction is downward; everyone should operate cautiously and not be overly ambitious.
Looking at the sentiment indicators, it is 21 today; if it continues to go down, I personally still suggest gradually entering the market. If it reaches 10, one can go all in. Then during a rebound of 30-50 points, clear the positions and exit. Recently, one can only do short-term cycles; do not be overly ambitious, nor do I want to be ambitious. $BTC #比特币价格走势分析

The latest insider information that will shake the market!

"Wall Street Storm" Warning: The US stock market faces a major correction, billionaires are bearish about the future!

Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen recently warned that with the implementation of Trump's policies, the US stock market may face a significant correction. In a summit, he pointed out that "there is a lot of uncertainty right now" and emphasized that tariff policies could trigger retaliatory tariff wars, affecting economic growth. Cohen mentioned that the slowdown in labor force growth and the government's tightening policies could have negative effects on the economy.

Although the S&P 500 index has risen sharply recently, he predicts that with high inflation and economic instability, the stock market may undergo a significant pullback. With fierce competition between retail investors and hedge funds, Cohen believes that we are currently in a risky period of overvaluation, and he does not rule out the possibility of a significant market decline.

Meanwhile, tech stocks like Nvidia are performing strongly but still face downward pressure, especially from retail investors' selling behavior and the turmoil in the options market, suggesting that the market may soon experience severe turbulence.

🚨According to CME tools, the interest rate market expects that the Fed may resume rate cuts in June and may cut rates again in September, betting that there will be two more rate cut opportunities this year-

Several reasons why the Fed postponed rate cuts:

1. The core inflation rate is higher than the set target, and inflationary pressure remains high.

2. "Economic data is strong", at least that's the case based on various publicly disclosed data. The Fed's goal of cutting interest rates is definitely not to serve the world, but to serve the US economic recovery.

3. Uncertainty about tariffs and Trump's policies. After Trump took office, he introduced a series of policies, including new tariff policies, trade policies, and drastic reforms of the government efficiency department. Especially for tariff policies, the Fed will only make decisions more cautiously before there is a stable expectation.

The "temporary disappearance" of the expectation of rate cuts will undoubtedly lead to a setback in market confidence, and the waiting time for the market may be longer and longer.

But the more you draw the bow, the more powerful the arrow will be;

Now there is actually no better way for ordinary people, unless you just clear your position and stop playing, then this round of market outlook has nothing to do with you, otherwise you have no choice but to invest regularly and lie flat!

From the perspective of US economic data, the revised annualized quarterly GDP for the fourth quarter will be announced tonight at 9:30 PM. The previous value was 2.3% and the expectation is also 2.3%. If tonight's announced data is lower than expected, it will again be interpreted as an economic recession. There is a data sentiment release here, and then the short-term negative sentiment will be released. Tomorrow night at 9:30 PM, the PCE data will be the most watched. Currently, the previous data is 2.8% with an expectation of 2.6%. If the data meets expectations, then the short-term inflation data in the US will decrease. Of course, regardless of whether this data has any issues, it is a positive for the financial market in the short term; at least the market can rebound for a few days and take a breather. Tonight, we can look for positions to go long!

Why do I think it is not a bear market yet? Of course, this is just my personal partial understanding and may not be correct.

First of all, from the perspective of liquidity trend, although the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in controlling monetary policy from 2025, the expected increase in interest rate cuts is not yet possible, but the United States is already on the road to monetary easing. Although it is a bit slow, monetary easing is already an inevitable trend.

Of course, this does not mean that there will be no bear market, but the conditions for the emergence of a bear market must be accompanied by an economic recession, or the occurrence of a black swan, or a sharp decline in liquidity.

But in reality, although the U.S. stock market has fallen for three consecutive days, the S&P and Nasdaq both broke through their historical highs last week. As of now, the Nasdaq has recovered the decline of yesterday, and the S&P even has the opportunity to recover the decline of Monday. It is difficult for me to say that this situation is a bear market. If there is, it is not now.

Many friends may say that although the US stock market is good, what does it have to do with cryptocurrencies? However, if we regard the US stock market as a leveraged technology stock, it may be much easier to understand. On the one hand, there is uncertainty brought by monetary policy, on the other hand, the tariff policy has brought about a decline in investors' expectations, and on the other hand, some investors have left the market due to the historical high. To put it in a more human way, every time#Bitcoinbreaks through the historical high, a large number of investors also leave the market, which is also true for the US stock market.

As for cryptocurrencies as leveraged technology stocks, I think this is not impossible. Secondly, in 2023 and 2024, we have experienced eight months of garbage time. Every time in garbage time, there are always friends who tell me that it is a bear market and we have to run away. If we don’t run away, it will start with X. In 2023, it once fell below $25,000, and in 2024, it once fell below $50,000.

At that time, the talk of a bear market was even more intense than it is now. It was only August at that time, and it fell from a high of $70,000 to $49,000 in 6 days. In the end, it slowly returned to the support range from $49,000. It was not as bad as it is now. In the end, it broke through the new high again with the trend and entered a new stage.

Incredible!!!

U.S. Treasury bonds skyrocketing, will the Federal Reserve turn against us? Investors bet on economic collapse and interest rate cuts to save the day!

U.S. Treasury investors sense a shift: the Federal Reserve may pivot from combating inflation to saving growth! Treasury bonds have risen for six consecutive days, having fallen to their lowest point this year, with heightened sentiment. Morgan Stanley warns that the 10-year Treasury yield may break 4%, provided that market expectations for interest rates drop to 3.25%. Friday's PCE inflation data could be crucial—if it surprises on the dovish side, investors will rush to buy long-term bonds, pushing rates lower.

The market is booming

This week saw three U.S. Treasury auctions with overwhelming demand; on Wednesday, the 7-year Treasury bond yield was 4.194%, below the market expectation of 4.203%, and the earlier two and five-year bonds were also oversold. Traders are betting on two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, with year-end rates around 3.65%. However, experts warn that without new fundamental support, the 10-year Treasury bond will struggle to break the psychological barrier of 4.25%, unless there is a significant drop.

Trump's tariffs complicate matters

Last year's weak non-farm payrolls had the Treasury yield hovering below 4% for months, and now Trump's tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, and the EU cast further shadows on economic growth. Morgan Stanley's chief strategist, Huonbach, said: "Changes in immigration policy could drag down GDP, and investors are bearish on neutral interest rates." U.S. Treasuries have risen 2.3% this year, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.3%; a February survey showed optimism for U.S. Treasuries to outpace the stock market.

Economic alarm bells ringing

EY's chief economist Gregory Daco stated that although the U.S. economy is robust, trade and policy uncertainties are amplifying volatility, leaving businesses and consumers in a wait-and-see mode. A Philadelphia Fed survey revealed that one-third of workers face layoff risks, consumer confidence has plummeted, and Citigroup's economic surprise index hit a new low since September last year. Budget cuts and tax reduction disputes further cloud the interest rate outlook.

The game of inflation and interest rate cuts

Core PCE has held steady at 2.8% for three consecutive months; Morgan Stanley predicts it will drop to 2.58% in January, with interest rate cuts expected in June. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, however, stated: "Bonds are betting on supply and inflation effects; we will see the truth by the end of the year." Whether U.S. Treasuries rise or fall, and whether the Federal Reserve will step in, all depends on how this grand drama unfolds!

Trading cannot be done on impulse, nor can it be assumed. $BTC has risen sharply today, driving a recovery in the overall market. The current support does not seem very solid, and speculators are quickly switching currencies.

It is advisable to consider taking profits for the coins you hold if they reach short-term targets!

The global tariffs on April 2nd continue to be a ticking time bomb for risk markets!

#美国关税

Incredible!!!

Trump's heavy tariff declaration - Is the United States going to be rich?

🇺🇸Latest news: President Trump announced that he would cancel the 25% tariff policy on Canadian and Mexican goods!

"This is very beneficial to the United States! Our country is about to explode with wealth!" Trump said confidently. How will this decision shake up the North American economic landscape? The market is already hotly discussed, what do you think?

The company announced a 25% tax increase on the EU (the main reason for the drop tonight)
At the same time, tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on April 2.

The last straw that broke the camel's back!

All the negative news has come to fruition.

Thursday Intraday Summary: The market's bottoming and rebound is a normal method, not a reversal signal. The intraday short position at 86850 realized over 1000 points of space, and the midnight strategy continues to be short!

Regarding Bitcoin's trend, Lin Kun has repeated many times in one day that the strategy is to short. The market trend is also very extreme. Today, Bitcoin broke down again. Although we did not keep up with this rhythm, it also validates Lin Kun's viewpoint. I mentioned yesterday that the bearish trend has not ended. I wonder how many old friends have truly listened to this?

Today, Bitcoin bottomed around 82250 and then strongly rebounded, reaching a daily high near 87000. The rebound strength is indeed there, but this does not mean that the market trend has reversed. Therefore, we also entered short positions around 86850 during the session, and since the market trend is a bit slow, we simply harvested over 1000 points and left hastily!

In the evening, Bitcoin also touched a low around 84640 and stopped, entering a choppy rhythm. So far, the coin price is hovering around 85500. As mentioned before, do not be eager for quick success, and do not chase highs and kill lows. Although the market is currently dominated by bears, do not underestimate the rebound strength. So, we should still maintain a high short strategy!

Regarding Bitcoin's midnight trend, Lin Kun just mentioned in the live broadcast that since the market has refreshed the low point and opened up downward space again, the bearish trend has not ended. Any rebound is an opportunity for shorts. Therefore, we will continue to maintain a high short strategy!

For Bitcoin's midnight operations, Lin Kun personally suggests shorting on the rebound at 86350-86850, with a target looking down at 84000-83500!

With the trend, it feels light; against the trend, it gets messy. Recently, we have been saying that the bearish trend has just begun, and the rebound is a short opportunity. Recently, shorting has also been smooth sailing. The rebound is just a paper tiger; do not be misled by the seemingly strong rebound on the surface. The trend is still bearish!

Trump went crazy again about tariffs, and crashed the market again
Let me briefly talk about my next operation view
🔴First of all, the core of Trump's economy is actually one thing, tariffs replace income tax.
Trump has said this repeatedly. But this is simply absurd to the extreme.
The current tax sources in the United States are 49% income tax and 2% tariffs.
Even elementary school math problems can be calculated clearly: the 2% tariff must be expanded 25 times to fill the income tax gap. This kind of fantasy policy conversion is tantamount to asking ants to move mountains!

🔴I personally think that Trump is likely to detonate the US economic powder keg himself. This madman not only tore the trust of neighboring Canada and Mexico to pieces, but also kicked European allies into the quagmire of tariff wars-clearly implementing the "double strangulation strategy": the left hand is poisoning the blood vessels of its own economy, and the right hand is using an electric saw to cut off the bridges of allies, and is determined to put the United States into a desperate situation of internal and external bleeding.

🔴I now think that the United States will be very chaotic and sinking in the next few years, almost certainly. What I am most worried about now is that Trump may "export chaos" to the world, and may even export war. In extreme cases, the United States and Canada may even "accidentally fire". In short, judging from the trend of this month, I feel that the situation in the United States and the world afterwards has greatly increased the risk.

🔴Now I am 80% cash USDT short and waiting for him to perform. It would be best if the United States goes into recession so that I can release water and wait for the opportunity to pick up bloody chips (the current SOL buying point is adjusted downward, and the ETH fixed investment plan remains unchanged). This round of cycle will be infinitely extended by Trump.

Can we buy the bottom now?

Let me first say my opinion. If there is no drop in the market, we generally cannot buy the bottom. How to judge whether it is a drop in the market?

This drop must be accompanied by a large amount of leverage being liquidated, because the drop of large-scale plug-ins will trigger the critical value and force the goods that were not originally wanted to be sold to be sold during the market decline. Therefore, this kind of drop is called irrational drop, and the winning rate of this kind is relatively high. The last wave of plug-in drop was on February 3.

In that wave, there was a huge amount of liquidation, mainly the leverage of Ethereum and Shanzhai, and in this wave of decline, the overall leverage liquidation is relatively small.

Therefore, this time the event has not yet fermented to the end. After all, the tariffs were collected on March 4, but the hourly K-line fell in large volume, and the shorts were exhausted. It is a good time to buy the bottom in a short period of time, and the price of this wave is only a short-term opportunity! The rebound will at least see 9w2, and the previous support level will become a resistance level. The rebound will touch the 9w2 test, but the big cake will not fall all at once. The decline is also a period of bottoming out, continuous testing, and finally oscillation to get chips.

Panic + oversold, this opportunity is indeed a good opportunity for the band. When the bottom fluctuates, there will be many opportunities for the band. If you don’t dare to go up when it is oversold, you have to chase it when it rebounds, and the profit space is very small.

LTC and PEPE are worth choosing. Of course, you can consider leaving if you hold 10 points this time.

If you are mentally unstable, or still in panic, and you are not sure about the band, it is not recommended to do it. Just wait and see. I just said that the tariff issue will be implemented on March 4.

Among all the leveraged liquidations in the past six months, the liquidation of Bitcoin is actually relatively the least. The wave of liquidations on August 5 last year was more.

Therefore, if it is a bear market, the leveraged liquidation of Bitcoin may be the biggest factor in accelerating the market decline. Note that the bottom-fishing mentioned here refers to short-term band thinking, not long-term layout, because the market is still at a high level, so if you don’t make a long-term layout, you can only make short-term arbitrage. The real long-term layout needs to wait for the signal of the cycle.

Next, we can pay attention to Nvidia’s financial report tomorrow and the core PCE data for January released by the United States on Friday to see if there can be some positive signals to repair market prices.
#加密市场回调

China's environmentally friendly hydrogen bomb test successful? #美国关税

Recently, everyone has to tighten their belts, cut costs, and live a hard life. The season is spring, but the cryptocurrency world has entered winter.
With such a trend against the sky and the trend against the demon, it can be predicted that in 2025, the world will be full of major events, chaos, and people will not be able to make a living. Everyone will have to rely on themselves for good fortune.
At present, from the perspective of form, it is certain that BTC has entered a bear market. In all the past, after several BTC halvings, the bull market lasted for 12-18 months.
Today, it is less than 10 months. It seems that the world is changing, and the bankers are changing. What remains unchanged is always us leeks. In this bull market, the worst victims are the old leeks, that is, those KOLs who claim to have experienced several rounds of bull markets and entered thousands of pits and ravines. They are all dead, are there any who survived?
Trump has been very busy recently. He has just made substantial progress in promoting the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and now he has continued the tariff policy. Canada and Mexico have not surrendered, and the tariffs are being implemented. He has become aggressive towards the EU again, and wants to add a 25% tariff. Bilateral trade is about to become tense again, which is turbulent for the entire world economy and finance. Many risk funds have withdrawn from the stock market and are watching from the sidelines to see how the market will develop in the future.
Needless to say, the currency circle has not received any funds, and there is no reverse flow. The liquidity is extremely poor. There is no need to think about the reversal of the market. Recently, it is recommended to only do short-term trading, make money and run, and don't have a pattern.
At present, it can be seen from the daily level that the bear market pattern has been entered after breaking the bull-bear dividing line. Once the trend is formed, it will not reverse immediately. Recently, the volume has fallen sharply, and a large amount of funds have fled. The macd cross is downward, and there is a trend of continued oscillation and downward movement. The support below is 73,000, and the pressure above is around 90,000. Recently, only do rebound market, don't hold the currency.
One-hour line, MACD golden cross, short-term stop loss, you can go long at 83200, stop loss at 82000, and take profit near 86500.
From the sentiment indicators, it can be seen that there is extreme panic, but it is also a signal to enter the market in batches. It is still recommended to enter ETH, SOL, doge, bnb, link, and other mainstream coins at the current price, and set the stop loss at the previous low. At present, the cottage does not follow the decline. But if it rebounds 20-50 points, you must clear the position and leave the market. Those who have entered the market recently will hold it for 1-2 weeks. If there is a rebound, you must reduce your position.
The trend has changed, and we can only follow the trend.We don’t know what the weather will be like tomorrow. We can only seize today and wait and see. $BTC

Shock!! Watch quickly!! "Tether CEO roars: Competitors want to kill USDT, I'm ready to flip the table and start a war!"

Tether boss Paolo Ardoino is furious, firing shots on X: Competitors don't compete with products but use dirty tricks to kill USDT! He shouted, "USDT is the super weapon that claims to represent the dollar in emerging markets, but these guys rely on the law to take us down; every meeting we have is a conspiracy to eliminate Tether!"

Rumors say the new stablecoin law will ban offshore players from buying U.S. Treasury bonds, Ardoino is enraged: This is blatant regulatory kidnapping! Hiframework CEO Vance Spencer also jumped in: "This bill is crazy, cutting off Tether’s bond path will backfire on the U.S.!" Tether holds $115 billion in Treasury bonds and has 400 million users globally, Ardoino declared: "Whoever dares to move against us, I will make you reborn!"

The community is in an uproar, Castle Island founder Nic Carter warns: "The dollar relies on offshore support, banning Tether from buying bonds is self-destructive!" Spencer added: "Overseas demand is the king; restricting bond demand means the U.S. dollar hegemony is doomed!" Tether vows to fight back fiercely, defending the war to the end. Who will laugh last?