甜梦链

高端的食材往往只需要最朴素的烹饪方式；

最牛逼的操盘手法都是明牌，自然而然的过程中就搞乱了韭菜们的心态，所以有人曾经说过：这帮狗日的操盘手都是人性研究大师。

1，行情只有两种走法，趋势和震荡；

2，趋势往往短暂而迅速，震荡往往又漫又长；

3，趋势行情又短又快是为了快速脱离成本区，提高大家的持仓成本，以延续趋势的时间；震荡行情又慢又长是为了让大家从趋势行情中转到的钱吐出来；

4，所以，最朴素的盈利办法就是一旦趋势转震荡，直接选择远离市场，在相对的低位布局，准备迎接下一次趋势。

$BTC market rebound and reversal, currently still on the left side of the trend under the big trend, and what season is it for altcoins?

Reversal market needs to meet two necessary conditions:
1. The supply of long-held BTC must account for more than 75% of the total circulating supply. Currently, long-held supply is still on the rise, as shown in box A in the picture, and has not reached this value.
2. On the macro level, there needs to be a pause in interest rate hikes, a period of loose QE, plus BTC's self-narrative hype, with no other negative events.

Finally, this chart has been created, showing the long-held positions of $BTC and BTC prices since 2020, along with macro and narrative analysis, as shown in the picture.

Conclusion:
The current conditions for a reversal market have not been met, and since Trump took office, the impact of tariffs has slowly dissipated, but the influence is still present. We continue to return to focus on the economic and employment aspects within the interest rate cut cycle.

There were sharp declines in the mid-stage of a bull market, but they had little effect on sentiment, and the market remained in FOMO. There can also be rebounds in bear and monkey markets, but these rebounds are the inevitable result of emotional speculation.

2025.4.29

① Converging and oscillating, the possibility of a breakout upwards is greater. If it wants to decline, it must at least break below 93500; if it can't do that, don't blindly look for adjustments. I continue to emphasize that the current trend is very healthy. The market news we can know today, apart from the earnings reports of the four giants in the US stock market, is temporarily nothing else. Tomorrow is a crucial day. If a breakout is found today, then tomorrow there may likely be an adjustment, in conjunction with the news, and so on. It’s not certain. Especially if $btc really breaks the previous high and effectively breaks through 96200, the adjustment may seem trivial. At that time, there is no need to panic, and no need to always have in mind the possibility of a big pullback or major adjustment. The current pressure is concentrated in the range of 【95100-96200】. Further up, it’s probably around 【98300-99600】.

② The support below is mainly in the range of 【94000-94200】, and the defensive position is 93500. The price that needs to break through and stabilize above is 95400. In between is the converging oscillation.

In summary, in this kind of market, it basically can't drop much lower. Even if it does drop, it will be an opportunity presented to you. The bearish factors have mostly been exhausted, and the only remaining issue for bearish continuation below might be the potential recession of the US economy. Of course, as long as the Federal Reserve hasn't started to cut interest rates, the market won't have money, and the rebound will always just be a rebound. However, once the Federal Reserve starts to have expectations of cutting rates, hey, you know what that means.

以“杀猪盘”的视角去理解Binance新上线的代币：

玩家 与 “做市商”对赌：

持仓走高的时候，我自己会弄明白，散户做多比较多还是做空比较多，因为他们在这个阶段一定会被清算掉

持仓走低的时候，架网格，空死它们

bubb
alpha section
Market value 1.5 million
bsc series
Bought 50u as a lottery ticket, zero-sum mentality, let's see if it can be 10 times, double it and break even

If in the morning the troll I recommended breaks 2 million, I will stop loss, all with a zero-sum mentality

Yesterday, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $590 million, marking the seventh consecutive working day of significant net inflow.

The ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $64 million yesterday, also rarely experiencing three consecutive working days of net inflow.

Considering that ETH has been quite strong recently, is ETH about to have another surge?

明确vc下场的能不能玩？

Vc这个背景，大部分时候只是多了一个让人fomo的理由而已，有点格局的会拉高了再浇，没有格局的一分钱不掏，有人上车就浇，之前某个mvb的项目，自己发了，浇了，还不承认是自己发的，出生vc很多的。

这一轮我还没看到格局的vc，上一轮在bsc、sui上的vc都挺格局的，至少大部分人能赚到钱。等待这波稍微格局点的vc重新出手。

车头喊单能不能接？

大部分所谓车头进的瞬间不能追，他的小号已经拉满了，后面还跟一堆跟单的，手动的进去等着被浇
大部分喊单的瞬间不能追，喊单的跟他的兄弟好友姘头已经上好仓位了，等你接盘

上面说的是这一瞬间不接，但是他们上了之后可以去看看叙事、筹码分布、情绪啥的，冷静下来看看要不要接。

全网都在喊的时候能不能玩？

这里需要评估一下空间，全网都在喊的，又觉得叙事很好的时候，看一下当下市值，如果明显超过了当下的龙头市值，就没有太多追的必要，毕竟以小搏大，博的是空间

前排地址在出货还能不能进？

很多时候dev的明牌小号一直在出，我几次被这样吓跑了，但是他们戏很多，有时候前排出货是真出货，有时候前排出货其他小地址在接，真正出货都是前排不动，剩下很多地址去出，散户们能怎么办？查得到个鬼

总有人问我，每天分析复盘那么多，到底赚到钱没。我目前的分析复盘是为了少亏钱，现在每天亏得比之前少了，也算是不错的进步了。
这个市场，并不是赚不到钱就是不行，纯散户韭菜没几个能赚到钱的。

总之，都是赌

BTC/ETH Metaphysics Monthly Hexagram Welfare Divination Free Share

April is coming to an end, and we are about to welcome May.

How will Bitcoin or Ethereum perform in May? Will it start a big correction or continue to reach new highs? Or will it start to correct after reaching a new high?

Currently, opinions on May are divided.

This morning, I have made a divination for Bitcoin in May using Qimen Dunjia prediction. (Image three)

I conduct divination for the upcoming month's Bitcoin/Ethereum trend around the end of each month.

The advantage of the monthly hexagram is that I can clearly know how Bitcoin/Ethereum will rise or fall within this month, and I can now break it down into weekly rise and fall situations, allowing me to have a thorough understanding of the market, facilitating operations.

This is also why I said at the beginning of April that Bitcoin would first go through Qingming Festival, then April Fool's Day, followed by Spring Festival.

It is also why when Bitcoin dropped from 84,000 to 74,000 USD at the beginning of the month, while Twitter was filled with lamentations, I kept buying the dip and encouraged everyone to do the same.

The monthly hexagram is very important, with a yearly cycle; many people will miss too many market opportunities. It is neither a continuously rising market nor a continuously falling market; the monthly cycle is the gold in the current coin trend.

Since 2022, I have been consistently sharing Bitcoin-focused monthly hexagrams, and it has been two and a half years now.

Some fans have been paying to watch consistently. This year, I wanted to stop this type of analysis for two months, but he asked me to help him analyze. I will also synchronize to the public account Boyi Tongjin, with each article priced at 600 RMB.

Since I started doing public welfare divination, I found that everyone is very interested in metaphysical divination of market trends. I decided that if the real interaction traffic of this post reaches over 30,000, I will share one of the BTC/ETH monthly hexagram Qimen Dunjia predictions for free.

The Bitcoin monthly hexagram can be used to observe the trends of most coins, as many coin trends are linked to Bitcoin.

Ethereum is also linked to many altcoins.

Let’s talk about my views on the current macro market:

1. The roots of the monkey market: a split between soft and hard data, chaotic fundamentals
Typically, the Federal Reserve refers to two types of data when making decisions:
1) Soft data: such as consumer confidence, PMI surveys, and entrepreneur sentiment, which are expectation indicators.
2) Hard data: such as retail sales, actual employment, and industrial production, which are real data that have occurred.

However, there is now a rare situation of soft-hard data split: soft data (confidence, expectations) is rapidly collapsing; hard data (consumption, employment, etc.) superficially still holds up well.

This split directly leads to extreme chaos in the macro environment:
1) The market cannot find a clear path to verify or falsify.
2) Any policy news, tariff direction, or official statements will be magnified as the main driving force.

The result is:
1) The holding period for investors and institutions has significantly shortened.
2) Short-term trading dominated by sentiment and technicals has increased. (The golden age of traders)

In summary: the fundamentals have not provided direction, so news has become the only direction.

2. The U.S. is undergoing narrative reconstruction: high volatility, weak trends
From a broader narrative perspective, a deeper core narrative is: the huge transformation from "America is invincible" to "America is also fragile."

This transformation itself signifies higher volatility and more frequent local severe fluctuations. The split between soft and hard data actually reflects the middle ground where the old world is not dead, and the new narrative is not established.

Thus, the narrative reconstruction period = rising volatility, disappearing trends.

Therefore, whether it is the U.S. stock market or the cryptocurrency sector, both have recently shown highly similar characteristics: the market moves very slowly and fragmented, with both rises and falls lacking sustainability;
Altcoins are lying still, while BTC recovers on its own but without a diffusion effect. The contract trading environment is extremely tricky, frequently shaking out positions, and even pure arbitrage returns are shrinking.

Bitcoin Running Flat (declining in a sideways manner).

Characteristics are:
Wave A declines significantly (109,500 ➔ 74,000)
Wave B rebounds strongly, close to or slightly exceeding the starting point of Wave A
Wave C declines very shallowly, not making new lows, only slightly probing down or time oscillating.

🔥 Reasons:
1) The narrative and consensus around BTC are shifting; with the crisis in US bonds and the dollar, it has formed a divergence from other risk assets.
2) Weekly super trend: 74,000 shows extremely strong support, whereas US stock indices have all broken below their corresponding positions. This position can be considered the bull-bear dividing line. If it breaks below, it will fully indicate a bear market expectation.
3) The decline of US economic data will gradually become apparent, while inflation expectations will likely lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates. After the debt ceiling was raised in Q3, a scenario similar to the "stagflation" of the 70s-80s may occur. Stagflation will simultaneously push up gold/BTC/stocks. Historically, stagflation has been the best period for asset price growth.

Wave B's peak occurs from late April to early May.
Wave C will slowly decline or consolidate until early June.
In terms of space:
The pullback may be very small, only returning to the 85,000 range?
It is difficult to break below the 74,000 bottom, and it may not even touch 74,000 at all.

✅ Current position:
In the range of 99,400-102,500, consider reducing positions by 10%-20% to lock in profits, but keep the main position. Hedge with puts at key ladder positions.

Running Flat is the easiest to make people emotionally collapse.
It can't rise, and it won't fall,
It wears you down to the point of questioning life, and then suddenly sparks the next round of a major bull market.

Currently, most analysts in the market expect QT to end in the second quarter of 2025;

In simple terms, that means June to July!

Friends who are looking forward to that season, are you a bit excited?

Actually, I am too, because the significance of stopping QT is immense. Historical data analysis shows that when QT ends...

The Federal Reserve typically starts QE within 6 months!

Of course, this estimated QE timing is mainly based on the recent transition from QT to QE starting in 2019...

As it stands, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has already shrunk to the level it was after the emergency QE in May 2020, especially since the current scale of QT has been reduced to nearly ineffective, so the liquidity drain brought by QT no longer exists;

On the other hand, global liquidity and M2 money supply continue to rise!

In the cryptocurrency market, the issuance of stablecoins is also ongoing!

I don't know if you have the courage to shout those three words after June?

Does ETH still have a chance? Analyzing ETH's trends from macroeconomic and on-chain data (also applicable to altcoin season)

Although I believe there is still a chance for $ETH, this opportunity may not be now, but rather during two possible phases of monetary easing:

1. In the mid-term of monetary easing, when interest rates decrease, inflation falls, and investors' risk appetite rises, provided that there is no economic recession.

2. In the later stages or the tail end of monetary easing, when interest rates have nearly bottomed out, inflation has returned to below 2% or even lower, and investors' risk appetite increases, preferably after an economic recession has already occurred.

From both a macroeconomic and on-chain perspective, ETH is currently in a bottom range. On-chain data indicates that prices below $1,500 represent a good buying opportunity, while macroeconomic uncertainty could lead to a recession, which does not rule out the possibility of ETH continuing to decline.

On-chain data also shows a trend of increasing ETH holdings among retail investors, whales, and super whales. While not as pronounced as $BTC, there are indeed more on-chain investors buying ETH.

Overall, ETH is very similar to the Russell 2000, both highly reliant on liquidity pairing, so during periods of monetary tightening, there may not be sufficient liquidity available, resulting in slow price increases.

The pressure level above SEI is around 0.218. This pressure was observed around March 26, when BTC touched 95,000 at 3.2 this year. SEI's high point was 0.27, and today it seems to have touched 0.218, but it hasn't stabilized yet. If it stabilizes, it might test 0.27.

However, SEI follows the overall market. Currently, BTC's pressure is also around 95,600 to 96,400. If the market sentiment worsens, especially for BTC, then the possibility of SEI going against the trend is quite low.

Compared to SUI, SEI's momentum is not as strong, and you can see that clearly in the 24-hour trading volume. As an L1, SEI is also experiencing the first phase of SOL.

In a rebound market, it's still wise to take profits when available.
As a common saying goes, if the US stock market faces an economic recession and BTC dips, there might be even lower positions in the future.
For reference, feel free to communicate and learn.

Bearish, but the market keeps fluctuating. What to do when lacking confidence to act?

1. Control position size and invest in batches. For example, I gradually build a position in the 95 range, with a liquidation price controlled at an exaggerated 500,000;

2. If it breaks through the 95 range, I will look for the next sideways range to continue finding the highs to build a position, either one-to-one or double, following the rhythm of investing;

3. If the market exceeds expectations and shows a large-scale rally, then the orders above the average price of 95 can be left to earn fees, and I can focus on other activities as if they don't exist.

The cryptocurrency sector welcomes a significant piece of news. The Trump family

Crypto giants clash with political forces! CZ meets with Trump-affiliated projects, SEC regulation is in a trust crisis, crypto giants meet with political forces, and the independence of the SEC is drawing attention!
Recently, the cryptocurrency sector welcomed a significant piece of news. The Trump family's cryptocurrency project World Liberty

Financial (WLFI) announced on the X platform that its founders Zach Witkoff, Zak Folkman, and WatcherChase successfully met with Binance founder Zhao Changpeng in Abu Dhabi. The two parties discussed key issues such as promoting the globalization of cryptocurrency and setting new industry standards, aiming to create broader development space for the cryptocurrency industry.

Zhao Changpeng himself also confirmed in a post that he met with Zach Witkoff and Bilal Bin Saqib that day, and made a prediction about potential negative reports, stating that he would continue to focus on building without being disturbed by external factors.

This meeting comes at a time when the Trump family's cryptocurrency business is taking frequent actions, and a series of developments have raised market scrutiny on the independence of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Trump's son Eric Trump plans to attend the Token2049 conference alongside Sun Yuchen and World Liberty Financial co-founder Zack Witkoff, and Trump’s TRUMP dinner plan is also progressing. This series of events puts enormous pressure on the SEC; if it gives special treatment to digital asset projects closely tied to politics, it will inevitably raise doubts about its fairness, posing a severe challenge for the new chairman Paul Atkins.

Currently, there is indeed an intention within the SEC to promote cryptocurrency reform, but the external suspicion of its political bias poses many obstacles to its actions. In the future, if Atkins can find a balance between advancing regulatory modernization and ensuring fair enforcement, the SEC is expected to regain its global leadership position in the field of digital asset regulation; conversely, once caught in partisan disputes, even reform measures with good intentions may stagnate.

The cryptocurrency industry currently maintains a cautiously optimistic attitude, anticipating improvements in the regulatory environment while also remaining highly vigilant about potential conflicts of interest. After all, as long as the shadow of conflicts of interest remains, the reform achievements of the SEC in the cryptocurrency field may be overshadowed, and the healthy development of the industry will continue to face uncertainty.

$ SUI
Recently, there has been a huge outbreak, with token prices and ecological data showing strong performance. The driving mechanisms and technological breakthroughs behind it are closely related to ecological outbreaks, capital, staking innovations, and more. With technological iterations, continuous capital inflow, and the ecological applications going mainstream, the core actions of SUI will continuously improve, and it is expected to become a leading player! So it can be said that SUI is truly impressive, and its ecosystem is comparable to that of Solana back in the day.

新的钱包空投，Alpha 积分要求从 45 涨到 65 了，我看了下我有 82 分，简单来说钱包账户有 1 万和 9 万 u，每天都是 + 3 积分，所以只需要有 1 万 u 即可。

然后找市场流动性最大的几个 Alpha，分别买个 1 BNB，每个就有 9 积分。

所以比较推荐的配置：
· 存 1 万 / +3 每天
· 买 1 BNB 的 Alpha / + 9 一次

由于这个存款积分，每次都是限时 15 天，所以只需要保持每半个月，用 BNB 买卖点 Alpha 就能达标。

考虑到绝大多数 Alpha 代币，都是 BNB 链的项目，这个设计也相当于变相给 BNB 链产生交易，然后加速燃烧。

估计后续大多的币安项目发射，都要到链上，通过官方钱包来进行了。

How much longer can the Meme bull run?
In 2024, DOGE/PEPE rely on emotional hype to crush the technicals, low gas fees + social fragmentation allow retail investors to rush in madly. The battle between bulls and bears is fierce:
Bulls: Late-stage bull market funding drives high volatility, FOMO remains, and new Memes can create wealth myths;
Bears: 99% of projects are manipulated stocks, severe control after market cap inflation, new investors face supply cuts or bear market transitions, leading to liquidity crises.

1. Federal Reserve Tightening: Easing → funds overflow and continue to party; Tightening → liquidity withdrawal leads to direct collapse.

2. New Narrative Takes Over: The rise of Layer 3/AI chains diverts funds, otherwise, Meme becomes the 'last carnival'.

Risk is at an all-time high: Essentially a game of foolishness, manipulation/insider trading runs rampant, beware of the Musk effect causing a crash after the tide recedes!
Strategy: Newcomers should avoid, veterans should enter and exit quickly, stop loss below the 20-day line, cash out at 10-20 times to switch to mainstream.

Cryptocurrency Survival Guide for Retail Investors! All the tricks of the market makers exposed, this time we must go against the trend!

1. Don't panic during sudden price surges and drops! A sudden spike followed by a retreat is a signal for market makers to accumulate, and a weak rebound after a drop is likely for distribution; chasing highs and cutting losses will get you burned!

2. News is all smoke and mirrors: positive news at high levels = signal for market makers to escape, negative news at low levels = time to quietly pick up bargains, operating in the opposite direction is the right way!

3. Trading volume can be misleading: a spike in volume at new highs might be a 'false breakout', a rise without volume will definitely crash; observe the volume at the bottom first, sustained increase is the true reversal!

4. Remember the iron law against human nature: when everyone is shouting to charge, I retreat; when there is collective despair, I buy the dip! Stick to mainstream coins, don't touch junk coins, averaging down is equivalent to giving money to market makers!

5. Making money relies on 'hard work': hold onto strong coins to let profits soar, choosing the right track is 100 times more important than hard work, reject fantasies of quick wealth, compound interest is the true way to wealth!