加密鱼右右

Today is the first data release after the change in the director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data from the Cleveland Fed is somewhat more accurate, but the difference is not significant. Broad inflation did not continue to rise and remains at 2.7%, the same as last month. The month-over-month CPI has slightly decreased, while both the year-over-year and month-over-month core inflation rates have increased, particularly the year-over-year core inflation rate, which exceeded market expectations, mainly due to a significant rise in used car prices.

Overall, this data is not very good. Although CPI did not increase, the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation, which excludes food and energy data during the core PCE period, making the core CPI somewhat more important. This is not good data for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

ETH finally broke 4400, it has been grinding for two days. It officially reached the 4380-4440 fluctuation range. Here, it will usually grind a bit, and after stabilizing, it will try to break through 4500. Once it reaches 4400, 4112 becomes the short-term bottom, so short positions trapped below 4100 are difficult to unwind for the time being.

目前的走势来看“补缺”与“三浪回调”趋势愈发明显，看一下当前最新状态：

1，BTC CME缺口仅剩325点，日内回落已经有所补缺，但是并未完全补齐。需注意，缺口补齐并非一次性就可以完成，短期可能几天，长期可能会一两周。

2，缺口由 CEM 数据触发，也由CME走势数据补齐。

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3，中继三浪是大趋势上涨中参考的“回调”思路，参考回调，不是看空，大趋势依旧看涨。要问大趋势是多久，我认为是下一次美国换届阶段。

4，中继三浪是以历史新高为起点参考一轮一两个月的回调周期，如果本周BTC价格无法尝试再次测试历史高点，基本确定了二浪反弹结束，三浪回调浪来袭。

5，介于目前市场面临利率宽松活跃度提升，所以整体节奏较快，参考今年2次新高之后的走势与时间周期，每一浪周期大约2周时间，前后误差2-3天。

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are about to reach new highs, while most altcoins are still at the bottom, and even most people have not broken even. The divergence is here; valuable coins will definitely explode, this is a historical pattern, this is the law of financial markets.

However, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research and investigation clearly. There are many types of altcoins now, and the number is too numerous to count. Which coins are truly valuable, and which coins are about to explode next, this is what needs to be studied carefully at present.

If valuable coins explode next, and you are still entangled in whether the altcoin season will come, and still cursing altcoins, then this round of market will just slip by again.

CPI results will be released at 8:30 tonight; it won't drop much, and data that meets expectations will be a pleasant surprise.

以太坊真正的比特币
强势的上涨趋势中，震荡通道盘整
做多2个计划：
1️⃣ 突破通道回踩做多
2️⃣ 假跌破通道测试通道起点做多

The second support for BTC currently seems to be holding at 118490--118686.
Tonight there is CPI data, which may result in fluctuations. In fact, capital has already dumped in advance for risk aversion, so tonight, regardless of whether the news is bad or good, the probability of further decline is already very low, at most there will be some back and forth spikes.

The CPI at 8:30 PM tonight is a ticking time bomb overhead; there is panic that poor CPI data will affect next month's interest rate cut. Looking at today's overall performance, the market is quite sluggish, and no one dares to take the lead.

Take some profits on ETH and keep some ammunition on hand. If there’s a spike tonight, I will buy back some ETH. Given the situation tonight, we have to play defensively.

ETH is currently only facing a portion of historical supply (from the high supply zone of 2021), but even on the 4-hour level, there has been no significant structural damage, and the highs and lows are still slowly rising...
Therefore, you may be bearish on BTC, but there is no reason to be bearish on ETH.
Looking at the ASR channel, the price has been oscillating upwards in the orange average resistance zone, which has always been a relatively strong performance.
It indicates that the current market demand is gradually absorbing the supply near the historical highs.

ETH顶部在哪？
1. BTC12万之上具有明显的抛压，虽未见顶但上涨幅度有限
2.ETH如果要追上BTC的涨幅，理论上可以到7000-8000
3.山寨包括SOL/BNB正在被ETH疯狂吸血，所以不要问能买什么山寨
4.山寨被吸血，BTC处于顶部范围，整个币圈能打的只有ETH

Although there were fluctuations in the market today, the overall sentiment is stable, and the risk-averse sentiment before the release of the CPI is relatively normal. Last month's broad CPI was 2.7%, with market expectations at 2.8%, and the Cleveland Fed predicting 2.72%. Unless there are unexpected events, the result is likely to be in the 2.7%-2.8% range; if it is below 2.7%, it would be favorable for the market. The month-on-month CPI expectation is lower than the previous value, indicating that inflation transmission pressure is not significant; the core CPI is higher than or equal to last month, reflecting that inflation in the United States is still rising, and the data has not yet included the formal tariff impact.

The impact of tariffs on the market is gradually being digested, and the current focus is on the policy game between Trump’s faction and the Fed's conservatives. If the data is good, everyone will be happy; if it is poor, it may not necessarily be pessimistic, as the probability of a rate cut in September remains high. The outcome of this market and Fed game is still uncertain.

Regarding $BTC, the trading volume has increased since Monday, in line with expectations, mainly driven by short-term investors, with weekend gains attracting trading activity. Early investors remain cautious and have not sold off due to BTC's return to $120,000. The two main support levels are stable, and holders are gradually shifting towards a long-term perspective. The seventh support zone is forming, but it still needs to be observed whether it stabilizes. Overall, short-term funds are active, but the strength of long-term holdings remains stable, providing strong support for prices.

目前是新的一周，周K线的回踩，我昨天就说过不排除大饼今天会再次回踩一下，没想到是先拉高在回踩，既然上涨趋势已经走出来了，就不可能轻易改变，小幅回踩才是健康的走势，不可能每天都上涨，每个要有这种承受能力。如果大家接的价格如果在现价之上，那就把保本损设好，如果在现价之下 那就把止损设好，心态放好，不要追涨杀跌，等待回踩调整结束 再次拉升！

Recently, I can clearly feel the return of the AI concept, possibly driven by Spark. These days, while scanning new projects, I've seen many narratives centered around the AI concept. If AI is really going to make a wave, what should we pay attention to? First, we should focus on the popularity of Spark and related narratives like 'littleguy', which can serve as an emotional indicator for the AI concept. Additionally, the daily new AI projects are also favored by hot money.

This round of altcoin season may be shorter, more fragmented, and may not even fully blossom.

The previous altcoin trends relied on retail investors and small funds rushing in, but now large funds are focused on BTC ETFs, ETH ETFs, and high market cap blue-chip assets on-chain, and are less willing to cast a wide net into a bunch of illiquid junk.

On-chain monitoring and KOL chain tracking are becoming increasingly widespread, making it much more costly for manipulators to pump prices and cut retail investors; as soon as they pump, on-chain hunters follow suit to arbitrage.

In the past, the themes of altcoin seasons were scarce, but now meme, AI, RWA, and on-chain games are all competing for attention, making it difficult for funds to concentrate on a wave of junk for sustained fermentation.

Thus, a new situation may arise where a few top junk coins are wildly pumped while the rest can’t even catch the atmosphere of the opening.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching historical highs. Logically speaking, as the market rises, there should be FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. However, the reality is quite the opposite. Most people seem to have missed this market surge, but the true situation is that most people's altcoins have not yet recovered their costs; the market surged before last year's tariff changes, and to this day, there has been no portfolio adjustment, and many are still facing significant losses.

This is actually because most people are still trying to follow the old ways, thinking that when Bitcoin hits a new high, altcoins will follow. However, Bitcoin already reached a historical high in mid-July this year, and it is about to hit another high, while most altcoins are still at the bottom, and those holding onto their positions are unwilling to change, leaving a mess behind.

This reflects the mindset that the market has cultivated over the previous four-year bull and bear cycles, where most expect a bull market to emerge after Bitcoin's halving. As a result, most people bought in at high levels in the first half of the year, without realizing that the market logic has changed. Earlier this year, the Crab Boss even published an article stating that the four-year bull and bear cycle has changed, and that trading systems should adapt to market changes, with the losses in the first half of the year still fresh in memory.

With the entry of consortiums like MicroStrategy and the inflow of ETFs, Bitcoin has been completely integrated into the U.S. stock market and is now fully controlled by consortiums. The main logic is that traditional institutions have purchased about 12% of BTC, while ETH has only seen a maximum of 4-5%, leaving a lot of room for growth. In the second half of the year, these institutions are likely to continue buying until they reach about 10%, gradually bringing ETH's effect closer to that of BTC.

Although the market has escaped the four-year cycle, the cryptocurrency market still has cycles, with ups and downs. There's no doubt that Bitcoin and Ethereum are not just cash games; they have their own cycles. This cycle is similar to past cycles, so it's crucial to make good use of the remaining time to accumulate wealth while learning to secure profits and maintaining valuable positions.

从2024年3月之后，币圈的山寨就没有叙事了；

上半场大饼主线，中间三弟（索子）在特定环境下（流动性紧缩）投机开起支线赌场；

现在下半场以太主线，还没看到其他的币圈原生叙事；既然没看到什么币圈原生叙事，那就是所有的山寨，包含以太的小弟们，都是在情绪的带动下陪跑而已；

过去的逻辑是：大饼溢出到以太，以太溢出到山寨，万币起飞，赚钱效应极大，扩圈，吸引圈外资金，板块轮动，直到流入资金不足以承载币圈螺旋向上，然后崩盘......

但是经过了这几年的洗礼，你们看看山寨的庄都几把什么德行了，别说山寨的庄了，看看老韭菜们都什么德行了；

这个阶段，可以不可以赌山寨走情绪拉升？可以，但是要谨慎。不服，你就梭哈山寨，咱们过一个月两个月再看，还几把狗狗看1刀，索子看300.....去你吗的吧！

For a currency like ETH, which is highly liquid and has a high proportion of retail investors, strong volatility is the only effective means of depopulating retail investors. Common tactics include:
Fake breakout: Continuously breaking previous highs for several days to attract retail investors to chase long positions, then crashing back to support.
Sudden crash and rebound: A sudden drop of -20% followed by a rapid pullback, forcing impatient investors to sell at a loss.
Therefore, retail investors can choose their trading strategies based on their own trading characteristics, different time frames, and position sizes, but it is always important to avoid naively believing that prices will go up or down and taking on high leverage, which could lead to liquidation.
So, assuming that in the next two weeks to a month, ETH really quickly rises to the previous high of 4870, will there still be a low entry price like the sudden drop to 2110 we saw earlier? I think the probability is low, after all, even if ETH's volatility is higher than Bitcoin's, it shouldn't be able to drop 50% in a bull market, right? While this approach may be effective in shaking out positions and accumulating, it also damages the structure and atmosphere of raising the price. If only institutions are buying and retail investors are completely sidelined, then how will institutions tell their story, and to whom will they sell their assets? Therefore, a healthy market must have enough depth, allowing space for both big whales and small fry to coexist.

Recently, BTC, ETH, and BNB have all reached recent highs, and SOL is just behind

From the daily chart perspective, SOL has seen six consecutive bullish candles, showing a V-shaped bottom rebound. It has successfully broken through all moving average resistance and returned to an ascending channel. Its MACD has also started to turn upwards, showing a trend towards forming a golden cross above zero. Once formed, this will trigger a new wave of upward momentum, aiming to challenge the 200 resistance level.

If Ethereum explodes, then the altcoins related to Ethereum will thrive together
uni ena link aave pendle
Especially with Ethereum as the settlement layer, the narrative of stablecoin issuance will explode, focusing on infrastructure and DeFi

Platform Tokens
BNB BGB
Both are following the narrative of compliant coins and stocks, with a higher probability of platform tokens causing trouble

Public Chains
sui sol ada xrp
As long as Ethereum does well, other public chains will still be in a competitive comparison, rallying up