甜梦链

后天晚上2点美联储将进行下一次议息会议，这个月大概率还是会维持利率不变，下半年才有望迎来降息，主要还是看鲍威尔的讲话内容偏向鸽还是鹰，若偏向鸽，属于利好；反之偏向鹰，则属于利空

WLFI will go live in less than a day, what wealth opportunities do we have?

Let's get straight to the conclusion: if you have $WLFI for over 0.15U, sell it, don't fantasize about 47U, and for those who didn't participate in the public sale, look for opportunities to short $Trump

🔶
The weakness of $Trump and the 15-minute divergence

Let's directly look at the comparison chart; E is also being tough, TRUMP is simply not resistant to blows and can't fight back, with large fluctuations. Even today, with such a good overall environment, the RSI on the 15-minute line has shown divergence, with the rebound weaker than Ethereum.

🔷
WLFI cannot replicate the glory of $Trump

① Just a question, WLFI's first phase is 20 billion
✖️
0.015U plus the second phase of 5 billion
✖️
0.05U in chips, who will take it? $Trump's on-chain launch has a huge wealth effect, WLFI is clearly just a pile of elite excrement, does it think the leeks are fools?

② Trump's younger son tweeted: The empowerment of WLFI is to buy $Trump? Because he's the president, can he really fly by stepping on his left foot and right foot?
🤣

③ The 12-month unlocking period has been canceled
WLFI originally had a 12-month unlocking period, but the latest shows it has been canceled; what does it mean to pour 25 billion into it? If the unit price is what everyone fantasizes about at 4.7U, that's 117.5 billion in circulating selling pressure and 470 billion in FDV......

Also, don't forget, both $Trump and WLFI still have 75% locked, and Trump is already 79 years old, he is a businessman.

大饼收线周线价格低于108500重要点位。价格在ma5下方。
日线收完线形态指标都是拐头向下。
现在就在2日线ma20附近有些支撑。在104000附近。破位就去测试10万关口。
以太周线收完线已经烧了5跟香了。上方阻力很大。以太对大饼的汇率受到ma20压制明显。
目前以太的价格在围绕周线ma120震荡。同步大饼。
美股期货日线级别形态不是很好。背离太严重了。暂时受到日线ma20支撑。预计这地方撑不住会有回调。
总结。目前美股大饼都是看空的，美股回调带动大饼。

What should Alpha brush next?
I'll share the results of my tests from last night.
I tested AB, and it can brush during upward waves, but whenever there's a downward movement or spikes, it's easy to get cut. The worst result last night was a loss of 5U on a 1000-dollar trade, and the best result was earning 10U after brushing one account, but that doesn't mean AB can be used mindlessly.
Taiko, just look at those rows of heaven and earth needles, along with various other tokens; there aren't really any good options, and you can only test it yourself.

The conclusion is that you shouldn’t brush during crazy spikes, avoid brushing when the 1-minute line shows a downward trend, do small amount tests, and if it doesn’t work, switch targets immediately. Reduce the amount of brushing; previously brushing 30,000 to 60,000 daily should change to lower tiers and focus on careful development.

Currently, no good targets have been found on the BSC chain; today I'm planning to dive into the Solana and SUI chains.

ZK, ZKJ, ARB and other tokens are welcoming large unlocks, among which:

ZK will unlock approximately 768 million tokens at 4 PM Beijing time on June 17, accounting for 20.91% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 39 million USD;

ZKJ will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on June 19, accounting for 5.04% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 30.3 million USD;

ARB will unlock approximately 9.265 million tokens at 9 PM Beijing time on June 16, accounting for 1.91% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 30.2 million USD;

S will unlock approximately 4.763 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on June 18, accounting for 1.65% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 15.8 million USD;

ID will unlock approximately 7.265 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on June 22, accounting for 16.88% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 12 million USD;

APE will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 PM Beijing time on June 17, accounting for 1.95% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 10.6 million USD;

LISTA will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens at 5 PM Beijing time on June 20, accounting for 19.36% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 7 million USD;

MELANIA will unlock approximately 26.25 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on June 18, accounting for 6.58% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 6.9 million USD.

Bitcoin daily closing weakens, showing signs of selling at February highs again. The false breakout has lasted for a month, and the market capitalization has fallen below 3.3 trillion, with funds continuously flowing out from the entire network. Heavy positions/steel rods/spot longs please be aware of the risks.

A macro storm is approaching:
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, need to avoid interest rate hike risks.
On Thursday at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve's decision will be announced, with Powell's speech at 2:30, hawkish or dovish is hard to predict.
Trump's 90-day tariff suspension will expire on July 8, and the market may repeat the deep washout from June to August last year, with no hope for interest rate cuts before September.
Hotspot tracking:
1. Trump's family DeFi project $WLFI has exceeded a market value of 10 billion before the market opens, with Sun Yuchen making a profit of 300 million dollars by entering early.
2. Binance's Alpha project KOGE and ZKJ plummeted by 80%, with high liquidity projects taking the opportunity to sell, Alpha trading volume has been halved.
3. Public chain #SOL rebounds, strong ETF expectations, leading staking project $JTO also rises concurrently.
This week may welcome a key turning point, be sure to control risks and respond cautiously.

Bitcoin has been moving relatively slowly recently, oscillating in the range of 104,000 to 106,000 with fluctuations of about 2,000 dollars. However, trading within this range is also a good choice. Last week's news had a significant impact.

Currently, Bitcoin is still showing relatively strong behavior. The support levels to watch are around 104,000 and 101,500. You can also place a buy order near 104,200, with a target that can at least reach 110,000.

Pay attention to the second phase of the two sols:

$rico: There’s not much to say about this narrative, currently at the price cost level, bought all the way from 5m, breaking out sideways, after buying just wait for the old horse;

$loud: 1.2m building cost, there may be a wave of rebound followed by a drop then enter a long-term sideways trend, or it might go up directly, just feel that this position has a good risk-reward ratio.

The price on BSC is double that on the ETH chain, and Binance's own ZKJ contract surprisingly uses the ETH chain...

After all this time, it turns out the ZKJ on Alpha is a standalone coin, which indirectly indicates that the initial LPs on BSC are provided by the team's own coins. The first wave of dumping was on BSC, and then some people followed by dumping on Bybit, causing the contracts to collapse, and then the spot on the ETH chain also crashed...

After all this, BSC's ZKJ is a standalone coin, this world is really a makeshift troupe...

BTC has been on the rise since April of this year. It took only one month to return to its original point, and in May it broke new highs. This is intentional by the capital. In the short term, 106,000 is a significant resistance. The weekly chart hasn't deteriorated yet, but the daily chart shows a double top, so risk control is necessary.
Where are the pitfalls? First: From last year's surge to 110,000, forming a double top, it started to correct for more than two months and dropped by 30%. Remember this correction period? Many people got liquidated during this wave, saying they would withdraw their investments and stop playing. In the end, they still couldn't withstand the pressure and were forced out below 80,000.
Second: The big coin quickly rose to 110,000 this month, breaking new highs. Many people weren't buying at 70,000 but were chasing high at 100,000. Retail investors don't have that much professional insight; they only look at price fluctuations and make trades. Therefore, there are very few chips at 70,000 to 80,000; most are expensive chips that were bought high, all waiting for the new high surge, aiming for 130,000 to 150,000.
Third: Do you know how much capital the big players have? They have already built their positions at 70,000 to 80,000. At 110,000 to 120,000, it's the point for them to gradually sell off. Now that this position has broken new highs but hasn't risen for a long time, isn't it just nurturing the bulls and facilitating turnover? If you keep waiting for a surge, you're just at risk of being stuck.

$ETH is trading at a critical position.

--- Figure 1, box oscillation + daily EMA 144/169 perspective, the price is gradually approaching the lower boundary around 2410, you can start to position for spot trading.

--- Only when the lower bound of the above range is broken, will it be the beginning of a panic exit. There is a large FVD gap on the left side, which is likely to cause a high hang-back. Once broken, long positions must stop-loss, quickly retract, and then formulate an upward plan (2B formation).

--- In the short term, 2655 serves as a key watershed; if the price is below this level, retracements can be made.

--- Low long positions can be chosen at 2445/2380.

--- It has been said before that 2545 is a support-resistance exchange point, why did it become invalid over the weekend? The main reason is the insufficient liquidity over the weekend; it is recommended to wait for liquidity to return before trading!

BTC is hitting again, hitting again.
The weekend has shifted from a decline to a correction, liquidity is about to return, it’s better to patiently wait for the direction to come.

--- The range of 106100-106800 goes without saying, as long as the price has not recovered, there is still a risk of continued pullback!

--- Figure two shows the liquidation chart, there is a large amount of short liquidations around 106900, resonating with the above pressure, so be cautious of the breakout situation.

--- Low long positions at 103100/101500, the latter is crucial for survival.

--- 110400👀

Yesterday's #Bitcoin one-hour range had a breakthrough demand, but surprisingly it did not break down in the early morning, instead it broke up in the morning. Did I miss some good news?

Or is it just to liquidate some short positions?

As it stands, the one-hour breakthrough has not allowed the price to break through the four-hour mid-level resistance. Let's continue to observe the follow-up!

Today's BTC liquidity is very low, with trading volume levels at less than 40% of usual, compared to less than 30% of the peak trading volume this Friday.

This liquidity is indeed quite suitable for liquidating both long and short positions, so be aware that it is early morning tonight!

There is a significant probability of increased volatility early on weekends, so be careful to avoid risks!

Currently, the four-hour fluctuation range is around 104,000——106,100, especially 106,100 is a key dual resistance formed by both the four-hour and daily lines.

The defensive position is still recommended to refer to the daily report mentioning the bottom support near 101,700, paying special attention to the buying power near the recent lows before June 5.

Like a decline and a breakthrough, there are many traders' psychological expectation positions near the recent new highs and lows, which will create a certain turnover to activate short-term trading volume.

Important next week‼️ Macroeconomic news:
Tuesday, Bank of Japan interest rate decision
Thursday, 2 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision, 2:30 AM Powell's remarks
Trump's 90-day tariff suspension ends on July 8
The market after July 8 is expected to be not very good
Arb, Zk, Zro, Ftn currencies are unlocking in large amounts🔓

The current bullish bottom line is at 101000$ . Judging criteria: daily level solid closing + with volume. I can't see too far at the moment; the first stage is at $93000; the second stage is at 87000$ because after the first stage is completed, it will rebound to test around 100,000 to 101,000. After testing, it will gradually reach that point. Therefore, when placing orders, it should be done in two or even three times; thinking of finishing the entire drop in one go is unrealistic.
For those who don't understand, overturn the logic of the past two days and look at the closed loop again.

The biggest problem in the current market is that there are too many coins and too little liquidity. Most project teams hold a large number of coins, which appear to show profits on paper, but they can't be sold at all. If they really try to sell, they might not even be able to liquidate 10% of their market value before it crashes.

This is the fundamental reason why everyone is racking their brains to get onto Binance and other exchanges -- to compete for a bit more liquidity in the market.

When you provide liquidity to a meme coin, you are essentially providing them with liquidity. Although it seems like the transaction fees from the people who are trading daily are a decent ongoing income, the control is in someone else's hands. One day, if they think the daily transaction fees are not enough or if there is a trend of decreasing returns, with one swift move, all those meme coins in your liquidity pool will make it nearly impossible for you to ever break even in your life.

Understand your original intention of chasing Alpha. Is it to enjoy the risk-free dividends from Binance? Once you start to expand your risk exposure just to gain a few more points, be careful that one day your principal might be consumed by others.

On the daily level, reaching here has already seen two consecutive panic declines, along with a severely broken candlestick pattern. However, the final entity still closed above the previous range, indicating that the buying pressure within the range is strong enough.

One of my relatively simple bullish judgment criteria is that the range does not break. My medium to long-term strategy of a second push to a new high remains unchanged.

Now many people blame the inability of altcoins to rise on the lack of interest rate cuts and liquidity, eagerly hoping that the Federal Reserve will show mercy and bring relief. However, I believe that even if interest rates are cut, altcoins won't see any significant improvement. Many of those hoping for rate cuts have developed a path dependency on 2021, where the epic global monetary expansion was a crucial factor in the bull market. More importantly, there has been a surge of innovation in the crypto space, along with an overwhelming belief in Web3 across various global industries. Nothing is more convincing than the narratives around who runs faster and the big casino of crypto, competing instead on who can hold on longer with diamond hands. Therefore, after interest rate cuts and monetary expansion, there will be a reservoir that can absorb it.

Is the recent bull market in crypto and stocks related to interest rate cuts? Isn't it more about the scarcity of assets? Why do many in the crypto community have absurdly low estimates for Circle's market value, only to be shocked by a fourfold drop at opening? Isn't it because the stablecoin concept in the U.S. stock market primarily revolves around Circle, while you can't even say that you can buy the stablecoins in the crypto market, let alone count them?

So even if liquidity is injected now, where is the reservoir? It's with BTC, with only a little trickling down to ETH and SOL. As for altcoins? "Finally, we've waited for liquidity to come, hurry up and issue coins!"

There's not much to see this weekend, the liquidation target upwards is 108k, and downwards is 102k;

The short liquidity at high positions has become the most dense and uniform liquidation zone I've seen in this round of market...

The current trend structure is oscillating, so the probability of liquidation here is about 50%...

There's nothing wrong with being bearish, and being bullish is also completely reasonable; overanalyzing will only confuse your mind. This is a better time to gamble...

What will be the future trend of BTC?

Chart 1 and 2: The main capital in spot and futures has mostly been net outflow over the last 3-30 days, and the net outflow is significant;
Chart 3: Recent net inflows in ETFs are decreasing, with one day seeing a net outflow of over 600 million;
Chart 4: BTC is fluctuating up and down at a high level, with the main players buying less and selling more at high levels, indicating signs of offloading;

Around June 20, BTC will face a choice of major trend direction, and I predict a high likelihood of BTC turning downward!