On Wednesday night, Trump once again spoke out about tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and mentioned that he would soon announce a 25% tariff on the European Union. The Nasdaq opened up 1%, fell 0.2% during the session, and the S&P 500 fell 0.3% during the session. People spend most of their time looking for reasons for declines, potential declines, increases, and potential increases. Current decline factors: Trump's tariffs/weak US economy/potential interest rate hikes in Japan/US PPI and CPI inflation exceeded expectations. Potential rise factors: The Fed's expectation of a rate cut has been brought forward from September to November to June to September; the path for the US to build reserves in the second half of the year will be clearer.
Back to the topic:
The Oklahoma House of Representatives Committee passed the BTC Strategic Reserve Act, which will enter a full vote of the House of Representatives. The bill allows the state to invest 10% of public funds in BTC or any digital asset with a market value of more than $500 billion. Cointelegraph reported: Ohio's (Strategic BTC Reserve Act) has passed the committee review stage, and is one step closer to approval. The BTC reserve bills in Montana and South Dakota have been rejected one after another. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced in the 2025-26 (Budget) that he will soon issue a second policy declaration on the development of virtual assets to explore how to combine the advantages of traditional financial services with technological innovation in the field of virtual assets, and improve the security and flexibility of real economic activities. It will also encourage local and international companies to explore the innovation and application of virtual asset technology. The Hong Kong government will consult on the licensing system for virtual asset over-the-counter trading and custody services within the year. In terms of stablecoin regulation, the Hong Kong government has submitted a draft bill to the Legislative Council. After the bill is passed, the HKMA will approve the license application as soon as possible. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed that it has received a pledge application from Grayscale Spot ETH ETF. On February 26, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 21, a new low since August 2024, and was in an extremely fearful state. (Last week it was 50 points) El Salvador increased its holdings by 7 BTC, holding 6088.18 BTC. Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, increased its holdings by 135 BTC, holding 2235 BTC. Polymarket predicts that the probability of the United States establishing BTC reserves in 2025 is 46%.
Analyst PlanB said that if BTC rebounds in a V-shape after this decline (around next week), it will confirm that it is still in a bull market, which is usually accompanied by a 20%-30% decline, followed by a sharp V-shaped rebound. CZ posted, "Waiting for new headlines: BTC plummeted from $1.001 million to $985,000." Previously, CZ said on December 17, 2020, waiting for new headlines: BTC plummeted from $101,000 to $85,000. This article has caused widespread discussion on social media platforms. Matt Cole, CEO of ETF issuer Strive, wrote to GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen, suggesting that GameStop shift its nearly $5 billion cash reserves to BTC. The letter mentioned that GameStop is considering buying BTC and other cryptocurrencies to meet business challenges, but Strive believes that execution strategy is critical to success and has made specific suggestions. Cointelegraph reported that the growing global M2 money supply could trigger a rise in BTC, but analysts warned not to bet everything on this emerging signal. Analyst Pav Hundal said: Our core forecast remains that the market will remain strong in March and beyond. Analyst BravoResearch: The US money supply has doubled in just 10 years, and this surge in liquidity could fuel BTC's parabolic rise. On February 25, BTC spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $1.139 billion, a record high; US ETH spot ETFs had an outflow of $50.1 million.
Since February, the cumulative outflow of BTC spot ETFs in the United States has reached $2.415 billion. (SoSoValue data) This week, Trump mentioned the issue of tariffs again, saying that tariffs on Canada and Mexico are being implemented and will be announced as early as April 2 (previously March 4). Market sentiment continues to be under pressure, and the US stock index and the currency market have fallen across the board. The Nasdaq index has fallen by -1.88% this week, Tesla's market value has fallen below $1 trillion, and the Bloomberg US Stock Index has fallen 10% from its record high. BTC has fallen below $84,000. CZ said: There is no need to panic, BTC will not "die". Bybit hackers have cleaned 45,900 ETH ($113 million) in the past 24 hours, and a total of 135,000 ETH ($335 million) has been cleaned and transferred out, which is close to one-third of the total amount stolen. There are still 363,900 ETH ($900 million) in the hacker's address. At the current frequency, it will take 8 to 10 days to transfer all the stolen ETH. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has abandoned its investigation into DeFi company Uniswap Labs. Uniswap founder Hayden Adams said: The charges have been dropped, and the investigation lasted for more than three years, forcing a lot of time and millions of dollars to be wasted. Amy Lynch, an American regulatory expert, predicted that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may redefine the attributes of cryptocurrencies, and pending cases based on the positions of former members will eventually be withdrawn. Most tokens may be classified as commodities, thus leaving the jurisdiction of the SEC. The Kobeissi Letter analyzed MicroStrategy and found that due to structural guarantees, the possibility of forced liquidation of BTC is low.
MicroStrategy holds about 499,096 BTC, worth about $44.4 billion. Even if BTC falls by more than 50% to $33,000, MicroStrategy's assets are still more than 100% higher than its debts, and forced liquidation is unlikely to occur before the debt matures (as early as 2028). The pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate futures contracts shows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% at its June meeting, and there is a more than 70% chance of another rate cut as early as September. Fed Logan said: The Federal Reserve is currently gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (shrinking its balance sheet). In the medium term, when the Federal Reserve needs to start expanding its balance sheet again, policymakers should consider actively purchasing more short-term assets to bring the balance sheet to a neutral level faster (widening the balance sheet). Trump's tariffs and signs of weakness in U.S. economic data have made market sentiment fragile. Next, Nvidia's earnings report on Thursday morning, US GDP data on Thursday night, and the Fed's favorite inflation indicator PCE data on Friday may all affect the market. Traders generally remain cautious and wait for more economic data and policy guidance. On Wednesday night, Trump once again spoke out on the issue of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and mentioned that he would soon announce a 25% tariff on the European Union. BTC fell below $84,000, the Nasdaq opened up 1%, fell 0.2% during the session, and the S&P 500 fell 0.3% during the session. Market sentiment is fragile. People spend most of their time finding reasons for declines, potential declines, increases, and potential increases to keep themselves in the past.
Factors for the current decline: Trump's tariff increase, weak US economy, potential interest rate hikes in Japan, and US PPI and CPI inflation exceeding expectations. Potential factors for the rise: The Fed's rate cut expectations have been brought forward from September to November to June to September; the path for the US to build BTC reserves in the second half of the year will be clearer. It is currently falling, and the potential reasons for the rise are interest rate cuts and the US building BTC reserves. In all these situations, is the bull market cycle over? The old man believes that if the Fed no longer cuts interest rates, the bull market cycle will encounter difficulties, and the probability of no longer cutting interest rates is very small. The Fed remains loose, and a rate cut in the second half of the year is a high probability event. Currently, about 20 states in the United States have proposed BTC reserve bills, and some state bills may pass. Emotions are following the crowd, and analysts seem to have hit the bottom at this moment. (Inflation indicators that affect the probability of the Fed's rate cut in the short term, the US PCE price index on Friday was 2.8% before and 2.6% expected, which needs attention) #比特币价格走势分析
