蟹老板的进击之路

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The picture shows the chat room entrance after joining! Real-time wealth codes including market reminders and faith recharge will be carried out! Welcome everyone!

币安蟹老板的聊天室

BN Wallet TGE event, one a day, and now some TGE projects are directly launching spot trading. You might be happy about getting some benefits, but from another perspective, this is also indirectly increasing the number of altcoins. The much-anticipated altcoin season is simply impossible to happen in a short time. Last year was about new projects on BN, this year is TGE, which is just a way to siphon off funds. Do you want the whole industry to improve and ride a big wave, or do you just want to simply take a bit of profit?

The turning point for major altcoins is getting further away. #币安Alpha上新

The big pancake is still fluctuating around 95,000, and the price is still high, but market sentiment and incremental funds have taken a sharp downturn. The matter of 'rising' is only related to incremental buy orders, and has nothing to do with the price itself $BTC

The market has been held back for almost four months!

In the early morning, the Arizona Senate passed the Bitcoin Reserve Bill, making it the first state in the country to include BTC in its strategic reserves!

10% (state treasury + retirement system) can be invested public funds (approximately $78 billion), theoretically able to buy $7.8 billion worth of BTC, which at the current price, could purchase about 80,000 coins. Mysterious funds are on the way.

#Strategy增持比特币

$PNUT pnut has quickly reached 10%, following the market rebound, the rate suddenly turned negative, but it can still be taken. $PNUT

Currently, the focus should be on the exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin, as Ethereum is the largest public chain in the blockchain space. Their strengthening can indicate whether market funds are starting to flow out of Bitcoin. Over the past three months, mainstream coins' exchange rates against Bitcoin have been declining, which is why altcoins have remained inactive. This is also the reason why altcoins haven't performed or participated much during this period.

However, there has been a turning point recently, as some mainstream exchange rates have risen above the 20-day moving average. If they can stabilize, it would confirm that funds are starting to flow towards mainstream coins. Nonetheless, observation is still necessary, as the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin has not been able to rise above the 20-day moving average since it fell below it on January 8 of this year.

$PNUT popcat bottom raised four times, pengu bottom also raised four times, the only one synchronized with Robinhood is pnut that hasn't raised, pnut has a lot of trapped positions, you might want to pay attention to whether pnut's main force will make a move, current price 0.183. $PNUT

When emotions are good, there is a surge; when emotions are low, there is a drop. This is the situation we are currently facing. I mentioned last week to appropriately reduce positions to avoid riding a roller coaster. So far, it is still within expectations. Next, we need to pay attention to changes in GDP data.
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

XRP has passed the futures ETF, and the market seems to have anticipated this, not rising much.
#xrp

GM🌞

It is said that the alpaca dog fund uses delisting news to attract speculators to short, and then turns around to go long, directly blowing up all the shorts. Additionally, ALPACA's funding rate once dropped to -2%, which means that shorts not only face the risk of liquidation but also have to pay high "interest," accelerating liquidations and pushing up prices. Meanwhile, the dog fund's long positions also benefit from the interest, and then they recycle the money to pump and go long, resulting in a 10x increase when delisting occurs.

However, for coins that are already heavily controlled, the final outcome is just a needle sticking to the bottom, and it can give you a "free fall" in no time. When the exchange posts a delisting announcement, it will directly drop to zero. The crazier it rises now, the tighter the trap will be later!

#ALPACA

The Logic Behind ALPACA's Price Increase Despite Delisting:

1. Early Positioning Before Delisting

Before the delisting announcement is made, the "whales" may have received inside information or sensed anomalies, with suspected accumulation activities around April 19. During this period, the trading volume of ALPACA on Binance significantly increased, but the price rise was quite limited.

2. Creating Expectations Mismatch, Emergence of "Negative Traps"

The market generally anticipated that "delisting = crash," leading retail investors and short-term speculators to collectively take a bearish stance, resulting in an influx of short positions and a surge in ALPACA's open interest. The "whales" took advantage of this by accumulating at low prices, significantly building long positions at the bottom, and subsequently raising the spot price, triggering a chain reaction of short liquidations.

3. Accelerating Short Squeeze through Rule Changes

Binance shortened the funding fee collection period from 8 hours to 1 hour, and ALPACA's funding rate temporarily dropped to -2%. Shorts not only faced liquidation risks but also had to pay high "interest" every hour, forcing them to accelerate their liquidations, which in turn sped up the short squeeze and the pace of price increases.

4. The Profit Model of the Main Force

Spot Market: Accumulating chips at low prices during delisting panic, creating the illusion of a "dead cat bounce" to attract retail investors to chase high prices before unloading at a higher position.

Contract Market: Holding massive long positions and continuously collecting interest paid by shorts through a negative funding rate mechanism, achieving profits in both directions.

#ALPACA

We have experienced the worst of the macro environment, and now we have basically recovered. Once the market continues to adjust and fully restores confidence, the trend will begin to shift from a rebound to a reversal.

If there is no interest rate cut in May, then June will likely see a cut as well. At that time, with the introduction of related tariff negotiations and other policies, the market will be ready to take off. The entire month of May is a good time to position for potential lows.

#特朗普暂停新关税

Important macroeconomic events and data forecasts for next week:

Tuesday: US March JOLTs job openings.
Wednesday: US first quarter real GDP, core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary, US March core PCE price index monthly rate.
Thursday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision, Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference.
Friday: US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.

#TRUMP晚宴 #比特币市值排名

GM🌞