蟹老板的进击之路

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币安蟹老板的聊天室

Regarding the decline triggered by today's war, let me just say this: as long as a full-scale Third World War does not break out, the impact of localized conflicts on the financial market is always short-term!

Looking at the funding situation, the Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in the last 4 days, with over $80 million in inflows yesterday. This clearly shows that the market's funds have not panicked due to unexpected events; instead, they are continuing to flow in. The cyclical bull market has not changed due to conflicts, and all we need to do is patiently wait for the market to digest the impact of this unexpected event.

Which altcoins can we pay attention to?

Actually, this cycle, the crab boss has told everyone early on that there aren't many secondary projects worth playing with at the moment. The two previously emphasized, Pepe and Sui, can definitely be operated according to the points mentioned in previous articles. Both can be traded long-term and in waves. Once Pepe falls below 1, I will definitely notify in the ban group.

The altcoin indicators mentioned in the May 31 article are still valid.

#PEPE‏ #加密市场回调 #以色列伊朗冲突

Every time we encounter this kind of war-like sudden market movement, the recovery is usually quite fast. Still keep an eye on pepe, sui, aave, with a preference for entering pepe below 1. It is not recommended to leverage and hold. As mentioned yesterday, look for the current leading altcoin sectors; for now, just focus on the popular ones.

#PEPE‏

It's time to fight again, brothers' accounts have been taken to buy bullets again 😭#美国加征关税

The current altcoins are too sensitive; as soon as the market pulls back slightly, they follow the decline. The mainstream coins that were once highly regarded are now completely overlooked by major funds. Those who used to invest in these mainstream coins have now gone to the blockchain, only to find that the current on-chain memes are essentially no different from those old mainstream coins, just stripped of their packaging.

Therefore, this round of altcoin rally has already passed more than half of its course, with new things like influencer coins, AI tool coins, inscriptions, and runes having seen increases of a hundred times or even a thousand times.

Conversely, many of those once-glorious old coins on exchanges may never recover. This is why I have consistently advised friends who stubbornly hold onto small coins to quickly switch their portfolios. Instead of waiting for a small probability of recovery with these small coins, it’s better to concentrate funds and only buy leading coins in various fields, such as Pepe and Aave.

Learn to think like large institutions, turning the quality of projects into measurable standards. Currently, playing with small coins is inherently a high-risk, high-reward endeavor.

In the past year, even the strongest coins in various fields have rarely outperformed Bitcoin. I see future opportunities for small coins lying in projects that can yield extremely high returns; of course, the main position still needs to be in Bitcoin.

In summary, for this round of market activity, I do not intend to touch most old coins anymore. Just focus on which sectors are hot and have traffic, and buy the leading coins in those relative sectors.

The Ten Sins of Web3
Lust: Female group member dd
Pride: How do you know I made ten times?
Greed: Give me another gold dog CA
Sloth: Can you help me buy some U?
Wrath: Why did you go long on ETH at a low position?
Envy: Their profit charts are all fake!
Insidiousness: Group members hop on and then dump
Lies: Come on, I just put in 100 Sol
Gluttony: Binance Alpha, give me another round of Haidilao
Incompetence: No one can make money in this market!

In the secondary market without expectations of interest rate cuts, do not worry about not rising, but rather worry about sustainability. #美国加征关税

Today and tomorrow, data on CPI and PPI will be announced. The inflation data will reflect the impact of tariffs, and the current market expectations are not very optimistic. If the data turns out to be negative, it may impact interest rate cut expectations and market sentiment.

On the altcoin front, there has been new progress regarding SOL's ETF. Last night, the SEC requested that the issuer of the proposed spot SOL ETF submit a revised S-1 form within the next week. Industry insiders believe that this ETF could be approved within 3 to 5 weeks. Additionally, there are reports that the SEC also seems willing to accept proposals that include staking mechanisms, which would be beneficial not only for SOL but also for ETH.

Last night, both ETH and SOL showed strong performance. It seems that the altcoin ETF is on the way, which is expected to bring a wave of altcoin market activity. Bloomberg believes that the market is about to enter the altcoin ETF phase and has also provided the approval rates for other altcoin ETFs by 2025: LTC 90%, SOL 90%, XRP 85%, DOGE 80%, HBAR 80%, ADA 75%, DOT 75%, AVAX 75%, SUI 60%, TRX uncertain. These are all altcoins worth paying attention to, as they basically belong to the ETF sector.

#CPI数据来袭

Great Reconciliation of the Century! #CPI数据来袭

In the past few days, those altcoins related to Ethereum have shown performance. If Ethereum can lead the rise, it would definitely be great news for the entire altcoin market!

However, there isn't enough money in the market right now, and the atmosphere isn't that hot. It's unrealistic to expect all coins to rise together; the most likely scenario is that different types of coins will take turns increasing.

If Ethereum can kick off a good start and drive this kind of 'turn-taking rise', it would be a strong boost for altcoins, instilling more confidence and willingness to invest.

To summarize: If Ethereum can rise steadily and for a longer duration this time, we can expect more smaller coins to follow suit.

Is this surge a rebound or a reversal? The key depends on two points:

First, can Ethereum truly stand on its own, not following the rise and fall of Bitcoin, but moving independently?

Secondly, the requirements for Bitcoin are not high; as long as it can stabilize and not drop, even if it just stays flat, that would be the best situation for the current market.

This Wednesday's CPI data and Thursday's PPI data are the most relevant, as they are the last two inflation reports before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (the first in two months). The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate decision, but more importantly, it will assess the U.S. economy, inflation, and short- to medium-term monetary policy.

Another potential source of volatility is Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction. Although this event may seem unrelated, it could trigger significant fluctuations in the context of a declining bond market. Looking back at the last U.S. Treasury auction: weak demand led to a sharp rise in yields, causing a sudden drop in the stock market, and that trend also transmitted to the intraday price of Bitcoin.

Lastly, attention should be paid to the China-U.S. trade negotiations. Today, both sides will engage in a new round of discussions in London. If progress is limited, it may exacerbate short-term selling pressure (especially since the weekend market rally has partially priced in today's positive expectations). If positive signals regarding a trade agreement emerge, it would be beneficial for U.S. stocks and the dollar.

#加密市场反弹

Waking up, the pancake has risen to 110,000. Ethereum is also about to break through the key points of the fluctuating range. The US and China are still negotiating, and so far the progress seems good. The only worry is if Trump makes another negative comment. The knockoffs have risen nearly 20 points from the bottom. For those who bought SUI below 3, it's time to reduce positions and focus on protecting profits.

Let's talk about the market expectations going forward:

Currently, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts are mostly set after September, so the third quarter may still experience range-bound fluctuations, and any significant market movements will have to wait until the fourth quarter, unless there are cuts ahead of schedule.

In addition to interest rate cuts, the implementation of tariffs and the passage of the CLARITY Act could also stimulate the market for small movements; these are opportunities that individual altcoins might benefit from. There may be more small opportunities in the third quarter, and when the market is dull, there will always be those who can't sit still. Where there is demand, there is a market, and it is easier to gain exposure during such times.

For example, last week B announced support for a liquidity plan for altcoins.

As for the altcoin season, I personally still believe there will be an altcoin season, but it will be more localized. The demand for liquidity overflow is still present, but it is not what it used to be; it will not be the exaggerated market like in 2021.

The most important macro data this week is the CPI on Wednesday, while there are several cryptocurrency-related discussions on Tuesday. Additionally, the China-U.S. economic and trade consultations will also begin on Tuesday, making these two days particularly noteworthy. The confrontation between Trump and Musk is still ongoing.
#特朗普马斯克分歧

No more blessings for the college entrance exam. If you see this, it means that you probably won't get into a good school. After the exam on the 9th, come find me to get a phone and browse Alpha!

#加密市场回调