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[Jinshi Data Compilation: Summary of important news in the European and American markets on February 28]
Domestic News:
1. Xi Jinping meets with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu.
2. The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision, inspection and anti-unfair competition in 2025.
3. The Ministry of Public Security responded to the US threat to impose another 10% tariff: urging the US to correct its wrong practices.
4. Li Lecheng is appointed as the Party Secretary of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
5. The central bank conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation in February.
6. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to further strengthen the management of product access, recall and online software upgrades for intelligent connected vehicles.
Domestic News:
1. Xi Jinping meets with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu.
2. The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision, inspection and anti-unfair competition in 2025.
3. The Ministry of Public Security responded to the US threat to impose another 10% tariff: urging the US to correct its wrong practices.
4. Li Lecheng is appointed as the Party Secretary of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
5. The central bank conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation in February.
6. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to further strengthen the management of product access, recall and online software upgrades for intelligent connected vehicles.
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[Product Trading Logic] The expectation of maintenance by Yuanxing Energy and other companies may have opened up space for soda ash?
The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only
Coking coal
Trading logic: Mongolian coal imports remain high; the absolute value of total inventory is still high; the ten rounds of coke price increases and decreases have landed; downstream coke companies and steel mills purchase on demand
Risk factors: Rumors of production restrictions at Shanxi coking plants boosted market sentiment; coking companies took the initiative to limit production after losses widened; hot metal output at steel mills stabilized and rebounded
Focus events: The actual implementation strength and diffusion effect of Shanxi's production restriction policy; the sustainability of the recovery of molten iron production and the progress of steel mills' resumption of production; the fluctuation of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume and the destocking of port stocks, etc.
Coking coal
Trading logic: Mongolian coal imports remain high; the absolute value of total inventory is still high; the ten rounds of coke price increases and decreases have landed; downstream coke companies and steel mills purchase on demand
Risk factors: Rumors of production restrictions at Shanxi coking plants boosted market sentiment; coking companies took the initiative to limit production after losses widened; hot metal output at steel mills stabilized and rebounded
Focus events: The actual implementation strength and diffusion effect of Shanxi's production restriction policy; the sustainability of the recovery of molten iron production and the progress of steel mills' resumption of production; the fluctuation of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume and the destocking of port stocks, etc.
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Gold prices have plummeted, but will the “bull market” end easily?
Gold’s aggressive push toward $3,000 an ounce has pushed it into overbought territory, increasing the risk of a near-term sell-off.
Although gold prices have fallen below $2,900 an ounce as investors booked profits, one market analyst said the precious metal remains well supported. Rising inflationary pressures and the risk of a global trade war increase the likelihood of policy mistakes by governments and central banks, which could further boost gold prices.
On Friday, as the dollar remained strong after U.S. inflation data met expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may be cautious about further rate cuts, spot gold fell below $2,840 an ounce for the first time since February 6, down 1.4% on the day and nearly $120 from Monday's record high. New York gold futures fell below $2,850 an ounce. Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, the biggest weekly drop since November last year.
Although gold prices have fallen below $2,900 an ounce as investors booked profits, one market analyst said the precious metal remains well supported. Rising inflationary pressures and the risk of a global trade war increase the likelihood of policy mistakes by governments and central banks, which could further boost gold prices.
On Friday, as the dollar remained strong after U.S. inflation data met expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may be cautious about further rate cuts, spot gold fell below $2,840 an ounce for the first time since February 6, down 1.4% on the day and nearly $120 from Monday's record high. New York gold futures fell below $2,850 an ounce. Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, the biggest weekly drop since November last year.
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The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is no surprise! The market is relieved
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge cooled in January, offering some relief after a string of reports showed price pressures heating up again and consumers pulling back on spending.
The U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.6% in January, in line with expectations, hitting a new low since June 2024, and the previous value was revised from 2.8% to 2.9%; the U.S. core PCE price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.3% in January, also in line with expectations, hitting a new high since October 2024, and the previous value was 0.2%. The overall PCE annual and monthly rates are also within market expectations.
In addition, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, fell 0.2% in January, the largest drop since February 2021, ending the growth trend since March 2023. Market expectations are for a 0.1% increase, with the previous value revised from 0.70% to 0.8%. This is partly due to the extreme winter weather that hit the U.S. after a strong holiday shopping season.
The U.S. core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.6% in January, in line with expectations, hitting a new low since June 2024, and the previous value was revised from 2.8% to 2.9%; the U.S. core PCE price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.3% in January, also in line with expectations, hitting a new high since October 2024, and the previous value was 0.2%. The overall PCE annual and monthly rates are also within market expectations.
In addition, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, fell 0.2% in January, the largest drop since February 2021, ending the growth trend since March 2023. Market expectations are for a 0.1% increase, with the previous value revised from 0.70% to 0.8%. This is partly due to the extreme winter weather that hit the U.S. after a strong holiday shopping season.
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This week's hot list: Trump's tariffs have caused another market turmoil! Gold has retreated sharply from its historical high
Market Review
The U.S. dollar index rose overall this week and will record its first increase in four weeks. The boost behind it mainly comes from U.S. tariff policies and remarks. After Trump claimed that he would start imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, the U.S. dollar index suddenly jumped on Thursday and returned to above the 107 mark, marking the largest single-day increase in two months.
Affected by factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and traders' profit-taking, spot gold recorded its eleventh record high since 2025 this week, reaching a high of $2,956 during the session, but then began to correct. On Tuesday, it fell more than $60 from its high and on Thursday it fell more than $50. This week is expected to close with a weekly decline for the first time in more than two months.
The U.S. dollar index rose overall this week and will record its first increase in four weeks. The boost behind it mainly comes from U.S. tariff policies and remarks. After Trump claimed that he would start imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, the U.S. dollar index suddenly jumped on Thursday and returned to above the 107 mark, marking the largest single-day increase in two months.
Affected by factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and traders' profit-taking, spot gold recorded its eleventh record high since 2025 this week, reaching a high of $2,956 during the session, but then began to correct. On Tuesday, it fell more than $60 from its high and on Thursday it fell more than $50. This week is expected to close with a weekly decline for the first time in more than two months.
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U.S. stocks reverse, should 'Trump put options' take effect?
Bank of America strategists stated that if the S&P 500 index (SPX) completely reverses its gains after the election, it will trigger investor expectations for U.S. President Trump to take intervention measures to support the market.
This month, the U.S. benchmark stock index has fallen nearly 3%, partly due to market concerns that Trump's proposed tariff measures could trigger a global trade war. Currently, the S&P 500 index is only about 1% away from the closing level of 5783 points on November 5, the day of the presidential election last year. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, about half of the S&P 500 index components have been in decline since election day.
This month, the U.S. benchmark stock index has fallen nearly 3%, partly due to market concerns that Trump's proposed tariff measures could trigger a global trade war. Currently, the S&P 500 index is only about 1% away from the closing level of 5783 points on November 5, the day of the presidential election last year. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, about half of the S&P 500 index components have been in decline since election day.
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【Golden Ten Data Compilation: Daily US Stock Market News Brief (February 28, Friday)】
Individual Stock News
1. HP Inc. (HPQ.N) Q1 revenue increased by 2.4% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, with expected earnings per share of $3.45 to $3.75 for the full fiscal year 2025, all above general expectations.
2. Dell Technologies (DELL.N) Q4 revenue grew by 7.2% year-over-year to $23.9 billion, falling short of market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $2.68, better than market expectations. The company expects earnings per share of approximately $9.30 for fiscal year 2026, excluding certain items, with revenue between $101 billion and $105 billion.
3. Tesla (TSLA.O) plans to offer a 'self-driving' ride-hailing service in California, competing with Uber (UBER.N) and others.
Individual Stock News
1. HP Inc. (HPQ.N) Q1 revenue increased by 2.4% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, with expected earnings per share of $3.45 to $3.75 for the full fiscal year 2025, all above general expectations.
2. Dell Technologies (DELL.N) Q4 revenue grew by 7.2% year-over-year to $23.9 billion, falling short of market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $2.68, better than market expectations. The company expects earnings per share of approximately $9.30 for fiscal year 2026, excluding certain items, with revenue between $101 billion and $105 billion.
3. Tesla (TSLA.O) plans to offer a 'self-driving' ride-hailing service in California, competing with Uber (UBER.N) and others.
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Is the next financial shock coming? Keep an eye on the yen!
All gains in the S&P 500 index this year have been erased. After Nvidia (NVDA.O) released its earnings report and outlook, investors again felt uneasy about the valuations of large tech companies. Layoffs driven by the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and economic uncertainty brought about by tariff rhetoric have shaken traders' confidence.
Meanwhile, Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist for Reverse Global Macro Services at BCA Research, pointed out that another potential danger may sow the seeds for the next financial shock. His concerns focus on the differing inflation curves between the US, UK, EU, and Japan.
Meanwhile, Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist for Reverse Global Macro Services at BCA Research, pointed out that another potential danger may sow the seeds for the next financial shock. His concerns focus on the differing inflation curves between the US, UK, EU, and Japan.
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【Cambridge Technology: Expected Increase in Demand for High-Speed Optical Modules from Operators by 2025】Jinshi Data, February 28th – Cambridge Technology stated on the interactive platform that with the acceleration of data center construction, especially in AI computing power, the demand for high-speed optical modules from operators is expected to grow by 2025. On one hand, the global optical module market is showing a growth trend, and the company has launched related products. On the other hand, the development of 5G network construction and industrial internet will also bring an increase in demand. However, the industry is highly competitive; if other manufacturers launch more competitive products or if operators adjust their construction plans, it may affect the sales of the company's high-speed optical module products. (Source: Jinshi Data)
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The outlook for U.S. government finances is unclear, but this Fed official firmly supports steady balance sheet reduction!
Cleveland Fed President Harmark stated that even in the context of unclear government fiscal prospects, the Federal Reserve should still steadily advance the balance sheet reduction (i.e., quantitative tightening or QT) process. She also made it clear that even if inflation pressures do not dissipate as quickly as expected, she is not inclined to support interest rate hikes.
Harmark pointed out in an exclusive interview with Reuters that during the period when the government clarifies spending plans and adjusts the debt ceiling to meet financing needs, 'the baseline expectation is that the Federal Reserve should continue to advance QT.' Once the government fiscal issues are resolved, if the distribution of market liquidity becomes imbalanced, 'liquidity can be injected into the system through temporary repurchase operations.'
Harmark pointed out in an exclusive interview with Reuters that during the period when the government clarifies spending plans and adjusts the debt ceiling to meet financing needs, 'the baseline expectation is that the Federal Reserve should continue to advance QT.' Once the government fiscal issues are resolved, if the distribution of market liquidity becomes imbalanced, 'liquidity can be injected into the system through temporary repurchase operations.'
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【Shenyang Government Service Access DeepSeek】Jin Ten Data, February 28 - Recently, Shenyang completed the private deployment of the DeepSeek large model in the government network environment and launched the first batch of application scenarios for the DeepSeek large model. Next, the Shenyang Data Bureau will continue to focus on the three major directions of "service quality improvement, governance efficiency enhancement, and industry upgrading," working with relevant departments at all levels, relying on government network computing power resources and public data resources to promote innovative applications of the DeepSeek large model in more fields, accelerating the implementation of "N" model service applications in areas such as government services, government office work, and urban governance. (Shenyang Release) (Transferred from: Jin Ten Data)
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How to Force the Federal Reserve to Cut Rates? Trump May Have Found a 'Backdoor'!
In the view of Nir Kaissar, head of the asset management company Unison Advisors, U.S. President Trump may have ultimately found a way to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates: fiscal tightening.
It is no secret that Trump wants to lower interest rates. He also seeks more influence over monetary policy, although he has the authority to nominate the Federal Reserve Chair and two Vice Chairs, subject to Senate confirmation. It would be a mistake for the Federal Reserve to grant more independence to this president or any future president, so it is reasonable to doubt that it will do so.
It is no secret that Trump wants to lower interest rates. He also seeks more influence over monetary policy, although he has the authority to nominate the Federal Reserve Chair and two Vice Chairs, subject to Senate confirmation. It would be a mistake for the Federal Reserve to grant more independence to this president or any future president, so it is reasonable to doubt that it will do so.
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【Zhiwei Intelligent: The AI All-in-One Machine Has Attracted Inquiries from Numerous Customers and Partners】Jin Shi Data, February 28 - Zhiwei Intelligent's AI all-in-one machine and AI workstation products have attracted numerous inquiries from customers and partners due to their high performance and flexible deployment capabilities. Currently, market demand is mainly concentrated in fields such as education, office, finance, healthcare, and industry, especially in industries with a high demand for private deployment. The computing power all-in-one machine is at a critical stage of transitioning from 'technical validation' to 'large-scale commercial use.' The company will strive to seize market opportunities and expand its market share. (Source: Jin Shi Data)
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【Kaisa Group: Hong Kong Plan Approved by Most Creditors】According to Jin Shi Data, on February 28, Kaisa Group (01638.HK) announced in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that a total of 2,900 creditors holding $15,261,148,917 of voting rights Kaisa plan debts attended the meeting in person, by authorized representatives, or by commissioned representatives and voted at the meeting. A total of 2,843 creditors holding $14,825,085,867 of voting rights Kaisa plan debts (accounting for 98.03% of the total voting rights Kaisa plan debts at the meeting and 97.14% of the total value) voted in favor of the Kaisa Hong Kong plan. The Kaisa Hong Kong plan has received the necessary approval from the majority of Kaisa Hong Kong plan creditors. Kaisa Group announced on February 28 in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that a total of 2,900 creditors holding $15,261,148,917 of voting rights Kaisa plan debts attended the meeting in person, by authorized representatives, or by commissioned representatives and voted at the meeting. A total of 2,843 creditors holding $14,825,085,867 of voting rights Kaisa plan debts (accounting for 98.03% of the total voting rights Kaisa plan debts at the meeting and 97.14% of the total value) voted in favor of the Kaisa Hong Kong plan. The Kaisa Hong Kong plan has received the necessary approval from the majority of Kaisa Hong Kong plan creditors. (Source: Jin Shi Data)
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Alibaba (BABA.N): On February 27, spent $10 million to repurchase 580,000 shares. (Source: Jin Ten Data)
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【Gold prices plummet: Industry insiders say it's due to profit-taking by bulls】On February 28, the topic of "gold prices plummet" surged in popularity on Weibo. COMEX gold futures fell again during trading on February 28, reaching a low of $2867.2 per ounce after breaking below $2900 per ounce the previous day. This represents a decline of over $100 per ounce compared to the monthly high of $2974 per ounce. The prices of branded gold jewelry also fell in response; on February 28, Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry quoted prices of 880 yuan per gram, down 6 yuan per gram from the previous day. Regarding the reasons for the drop in gold prices, industry insiders noted that after London gold spot prices broke through the resistance level of $2950 per ounce, a large amount of profit-taking occurred, leading to the decline in gold prices. In addition, the price spread between COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices has gradually narrowed, physical gold demand has weakened marginally, and the replenishment of inventory in the New York precious metals market has cooled down. A research report by Shenwan Hongyuan Futures indicates that market sentiment toward the outlook for gold this year is relatively optimistic, further driving a rush to buy, but the cost-effectiveness of continuing to buy gold has decreased, and the overall situation may display a stage of profit-taking. (China Securities Journal) (Source: Jin Shi Data)
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【Huafeng Co., Ltd.: Generator sets are not the core equipment directly related to data centers and computing power】Jin Shi Data, February 28th: Huafeng Co., Ltd. announced on February 28th that the company has noticed the high market attention to the power supply sector of data centers. The company's intelligent generator set products, as backup power, can be used in various application scenarios such as communication base stations, oilfield wells, banks, mines, etc., and can also be used as emergency power for data centers. Generator sets are not the core equipment directly related to data centers and computing power, and there is inherent uncertainty in the scale and development speed of downstream markets such as computing power, which also brings significant uncertainty to the company's business impact. (Source: Jin Shi Data)
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Russia-U.S. Relations Thaw, Investors Eagerly Searching for Profit Opportunities!
In his office in Midtown Manhattan, securities lawyer Grigory Marinichev constantly receives calls from clients around the world, all asking the same question: How can they trade Russian assets?
His answer was simple: No, because hundreds of billions of Russian assets remain frozen under U.S. sanctions. However, as speculation grows that the Russian financial market may reopen to the outside world soon, some are eager to enter the market early, leading Marinichev's warnings to encourage them to seek alternative ways.
His answer was simple: No, because hundreds of billions of Russian assets remain frozen under U.S. sanctions. However, as speculation grows that the Russian financial market may reopen to the outside world soon, some are eager to enter the market early, leading Marinichev's warnings to encourage them to seek alternative ways.
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【In January 2025, the scale of China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 4.0543 trillion yuan】On February 28, Jinshidata reported that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released the international balance of payments data for goods and services trade in January 2025. In January 2025, the scale of China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 4.0543 trillion yuan. Among them, the goods trade export was 2.0109 trillion yuan, import was 1.3767 trillion yuan, resulting in a surplus of 634.2 billion yuan; the services trade export was 251.8 billion yuan, import was 414.9 billion yuan, resulting in a deficit of 163.1 billion yuan. The main items of services trade were: travel services trade scale of 233.4 billion yuan, transportation services trade scale of 171.4 billion yuan, other commercial services trade scale of 106.0 billion yuan, telecommunications, computer and information services trade scale of 64.8 billion yuan. In dollar terms, in January 2025, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade exported 315 billion dollars, imported 249.4 billion dollars, resulting in a surplus of 65.6 billion dollars. (Source: Jinshidata)
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Trump 2.0 Causes Big Waves! Has Oil, Gold, and U.S. Stocks Changed?
The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's economic policies continues to affect the market, as tariff threats disrupt oil price expectations, gold prices diverge from traditional logic, and Nvidia's performance, while exceeding expectations, causes a downturn in U.S. stocks. These phenomena reflect the market's complex attitude toward policies and corporate earnings. Here is an in-depth interpretation of these phenomena by a Bloomberg columnist.
Oil price conundrum: Trump finds it hard to have it both ways.
Unpredictable and inconsistent economic policies are not only annoying but also hinder business planning. For example, the Trump administration's ambitions regarding oil are relatively straightforward—support production and lower oil prices through 'drill, baby, drill'—as a means to reduce inflation and subsequently lower interest rates. However, when considering how these policies will be implemented, it becomes much more complicated.
Oil price conundrum: Trump finds it hard to have it both ways.
Unpredictable and inconsistent economic policies are not only annoying but also hinder business planning. For example, the Trump administration's ambitions regarding oil are relatively straightforward—support production and lower oil prices through 'drill, baby, drill'—as a means to reduce inflation and subsequently lower interest rates. However, when considering how these policies will be implemented, it becomes much more complicated.
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