Why do I think it is not a bear market yet? Of course, this is just my personal partial understanding and may not be correct.

First of all, from the perspective of liquidity trend, although the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in controlling monetary policy from 2025, the expected increase in interest rate cuts is not yet possible, but the United States is already on the road to monetary easing. Although it is a bit slow, monetary easing is already an inevitable trend.

Of course, this does not mean that there will be no bear market, but the conditions for the emergence of a bear market must be accompanied by an economic recession, or the occurrence of a black swan, or a sharp decline in liquidity.

But in reality, although the U.S. stock market has fallen for three consecutive days, the S&P and Nasdaq both broke through their historical highs last week. As of now, the Nasdaq has recovered the decline of yesterday, and the S&P even has the opportunity to recover the decline of Monday. It is difficult for me to say that this situation is a bear market. If there is, it is not now.

Many friends may say that although the US stock market is good, what does it have to do with cryptocurrencies? However, if we regard the US stock market as a leveraged technology stock, it may be much easier to understand. On the one hand, there is uncertainty brought by monetary policy, on the other hand, the tariff policy has brought about a decline in investors' expectations, and on the other hand, some investors have left the market due to the historical high. To put it in a more human way, every time#Bitcoinbreaks through the historical high, a large number of investors also leave the market, which is also true for the US stock market.

As for cryptocurrencies as leveraged technology stocks, I think this is not impossible. Secondly, in 2023 and 2024, we have experienced eight months of garbage time. Every time in garbage time, there are always friends who tell me that it is a bear market and we have to run away. If we don’t run away, it will start with X. In 2023, it once fell below $25,000, and in 2024, it once fell below $50,000.

At that time, the talk of a bear market was even more intense than it is now. It was only August at that time, and it fell from a high of $70,000 to $49,000 in 6 days. In the end, it slowly returned to the support range from $49,000. It was not as bad as it is now. In the end, it broke through the new high again with the trend and entered a new stage.