美债
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Yesterday Ethereum pulled back to around $1843, I added some short positions at $1840, and this morning it dropped to around $1785, closing 30% of the positions. Each trade should be planned, including both long and short positions, and I have set profit-taking and stop-loss strategies separately. As we get closer to 630, the U.S. government has to repay $6.5 trillion in U.S. debt, while the U.S. Treasury's cash reserves are only $638.7 billion. How can they repay it? Let's not even talk about interest rate cuts; it could very well collapse. The crypto market usually reacts in advance, so we will wait and see. I remain bearish, especially on Ethereum. #BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美债
大漠哥
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This recent drop has made me very satisfied with Ethereum. During the rebound, Ethereum is also the weakest. This is what they call: 'When bulls are strong, bears are not weak; when bears are weak, bulls are not strong.' The hype around the upgrade in May is almost over; we should continue as before, no need to pretend 😄, let's be straightforward... #ETH
无量大尊:
发新的美债还旧的美债
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Trump changes his stance daily. The main purpose of launching a global tariff war this time is to implement a debt swap strategy, attempting to promote the issuance of interest-free century bonds, deferring short-term debt repayment pressure, while asking allies to increase their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds under the guise of sharing NATO military expenses.
Secondly, he aims to lower Treasury yields, that is, by creating trade uncertainty, forcing capital to flow back into the U.S. Treasury market, thereby reducing U.S. Treasury yields and saving on interest payments.
Currently, the only certainty in the market is that in 2025, $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature and need to be redeemed, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June alone. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will need to pay more than $300 billion in interest, leading to unprecedented fiscal pressure.
Therefore, it can be expected that Trump's tariff war may gradually become clearer by the end of June.
#美债 #关税战 #特朗普
Secondly, he aims to lower Treasury yields, that is, by creating trade uncertainty, forcing capital to flow back into the U.S. Treasury market, thereby reducing U.S. Treasury yields and saving on interest payments.
Currently, the only certainty in the market is that in 2025, $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature and need to be redeemed, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June alone. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will need to pay more than $300 billion in interest, leading to unprecedented fiscal pressure.
Therefore, it can be expected that Trump's tariff war may gradually become clearer by the end of June.
#美债 #关税战 #特朗普
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Is Japan really responsible for the plunge in US debt?
In the turmoil in the US bond market earlier this month, were Japanese institutions really the "pusher behind the scenes"?
According to preliminary data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, private institutions including banks and pension funds sold $17.5 billion worth of long-term foreign bonds in the week ending April 4. Another $3.6 billion was sold the following week.
This total of more than $20 billion in sales is one of the largest two-week sell-offs since records began in 2005.
This round of selling came as global stock and bond markets fell into panic after Trump announced his tariff plan on April 2. In the four trading days that followed, the S&P 500 plunged 12%. The US Treasury market was hit hard, with 10-year Treasury yields soaring in the week of April 11, the largest increase since 2001.
Japan once said: It will not sell US debt to counter tariffs.
Previously, the market rumored that as the second largest foreign holder of US debt, Japan may sell US debt to counter tariffs.
On April 9, Wall Street News reported that Japan quickly spoke out amid market rumors and speculation.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato made it clear that it would not use its holdings of U.S. Treasuries as a tool for tariff retaliation:
"We manage our holdings of U.S. Treasuries in case there is a need for future exchange rate intervention."
In addition, according to the Global Times, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said last week that Japan "does not intend to make major concessions and will not rush to reach an agreement" in tariff negotiations with the U.S. government.
"I don't think we should make major concessions in order to quickly end the negotiations," Shigeru Ishiba made clear in Congress, and he also ruled out the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products.
$BTC $ETH
#特朗普施压鲍威尔 #中美贸易关系 #美债
In the turmoil in the US bond market earlier this month, were Japanese institutions really the "pusher behind the scenes"?
According to preliminary data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, private institutions including banks and pension funds sold $17.5 billion worth of long-term foreign bonds in the week ending April 4. Another $3.6 billion was sold the following week.
This total of more than $20 billion in sales is one of the largest two-week sell-offs since records began in 2005.
This round of selling came as global stock and bond markets fell into panic after Trump announced his tariff plan on April 2. In the four trading days that followed, the S&P 500 plunged 12%. The US Treasury market was hit hard, with 10-year Treasury yields soaring in the week of April 11, the largest increase since 2001.
Japan once said: It will not sell US debt to counter tariffs.
Previously, the market rumored that as the second largest foreign holder of US debt, Japan may sell US debt to counter tariffs.
On April 9, Wall Street News reported that Japan quickly spoke out amid market rumors and speculation.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato made it clear that it would not use its holdings of U.S. Treasuries as a tool for tariff retaliation:
"We manage our holdings of U.S. Treasuries in case there is a need for future exchange rate intervention."
In addition, according to the Global Times, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said last week that Japan "does not intend to make major concessions and will not rush to reach an agreement" in tariff negotiations with the U.S. government.
"I don't think we should make major concessions in order to quickly end the negotiations," Shigeru Ishiba made clear in Congress, and he also ruled out the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products.
$BTC $ETH
#特朗普施压鲍威尔 #中美贸易关系 #美债
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The debts of the Americans must always be repaid. #美债
It is said that as June approaches, the 65 trillion old debts hang like a noose on the beam, making it hard for people to breathe. Upon closer calculation, this number is not exaggerated — the total amount of U.S. national debt has exceeded 34 trillion, and the daily interest burns away 2 billion, equivalent to the livelihood of a city. In earlier years, they were accustomed to the trick of 'borrowing new to pay old', patching the east wall with the west wall, thus fooling the world. But now, this new debt actually requires five percent interest! Five cents — the ten-year treasury bond interest rate has surged from last year's 1.25% to today's 4.5%. Are the people of the world truly blind? Clearly, a deep pit has been dug, yet they insist on covering it with gold leaf, enticing people to jump in. This kind of calculation resembles that of a street gambler, betting that tomorrow they can borrow another jug of wine.
But the debt of wine is still debt. With no one buying the new debt, how can the old debt be repaid? Just the treasury bonds maturing in June account for thirty percent of the annual maturity amount. The bankers’ abacus beads click loudly, yet the deficit on the ledger grows like wild grass — last year's deficit was 1.7 trillion, and this year adds new wounds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio already surpassing 120%, which is thirty percent more than that before the fall of the Roman Empire. This world has always been like this: countless sweet words when borrowing, and all kinds of excuses when repaying. If in the past it was a 'paper tiger,' today it has become a 'paper money tiger' — unable to even print paper money.
When the dollar collapses, the building will tilt. Overseas creditors are smirking with their ledgers in hand: Japan holds 1.1 trillion, China 780 billion, and even a small country like Belgium has staked 300 billion. The former vassals are likely to scatter like birds and beasts. Allies are now holding their ledgers, coldly watching this drama — the European Central Bank sold off 10 billion in U.S. bonds last month, and Saudi oil money has turned to gold, clearly no longer trusting even 'paper money.' What 'tariff wars,' what 'trade knives,' are merely the dying whispers of a moribund entity.
Yet this world ultimately cannot tolerate those who deceive and steal reputations. The day the debts pile high is the day credit collapses. When the waters run dry, let us see how the hegemony turns to dust, scattered in the wind — no matter how fast the Federal Reserve's printing press works, it cannot outpace the calculations of the people of the world.
Alas! The world says capital is like a tiger, yet it does not know that this tiger can also starve to death. 34 trillion of flesh can never satisfy a bottomless pit.
It is said that as June approaches, the 65 trillion old debts hang like a noose on the beam, making it hard for people to breathe. Upon closer calculation, this number is not exaggerated — the total amount of U.S. national debt has exceeded 34 trillion, and the daily interest burns away 2 billion, equivalent to the livelihood of a city. In earlier years, they were accustomed to the trick of 'borrowing new to pay old', patching the east wall with the west wall, thus fooling the world. But now, this new debt actually requires five percent interest! Five cents — the ten-year treasury bond interest rate has surged from last year's 1.25% to today's 4.5%. Are the people of the world truly blind? Clearly, a deep pit has been dug, yet they insist on covering it with gold leaf, enticing people to jump in. This kind of calculation resembles that of a street gambler, betting that tomorrow they can borrow another jug of wine.
But the debt of wine is still debt. With no one buying the new debt, how can the old debt be repaid? Just the treasury bonds maturing in June account for thirty percent of the annual maturity amount. The bankers’ abacus beads click loudly, yet the deficit on the ledger grows like wild grass — last year's deficit was 1.7 trillion, and this year adds new wounds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio already surpassing 120%, which is thirty percent more than that before the fall of the Roman Empire. This world has always been like this: countless sweet words when borrowing, and all kinds of excuses when repaying. If in the past it was a 'paper tiger,' today it has become a 'paper money tiger' — unable to even print paper money.
When the dollar collapses, the building will tilt. Overseas creditors are smirking with their ledgers in hand: Japan holds 1.1 trillion, China 780 billion, and even a small country like Belgium has staked 300 billion. The former vassals are likely to scatter like birds and beasts. Allies are now holding their ledgers, coldly watching this drama — the European Central Bank sold off 10 billion in U.S. bonds last month, and Saudi oil money has turned to gold, clearly no longer trusting even 'paper money.' What 'tariff wars,' what 'trade knives,' are merely the dying whispers of a moribund entity.
Yet this world ultimately cannot tolerate those who deceive and steal reputations. The day the debts pile high is the day credit collapses. When the waters run dry, let us see how the hegemony turns to dust, scattered in the wind — no matter how fast the Federal Reserve's printing press works, it cannot outpace the calculations of the people of the world.
Alas! The world says capital is like a tiger, yet it does not know that this tiger can also starve to death. 34 trillion of flesh can never satisfy a bottomless pit.
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US Debt Nuclear Explosion: Global Sell-off of US Debt Hits America's Lifeline, Is a Financial Storm Coming?
Crises Facing the US:
Either allow the debt crisis to erupt
Or restart the printing press and self-destruct the dollar's credit
1. A Death Spiral Emerges in the US Debt Market
10-year Treasury yield soars to 4.48%, marking the highest single-week increase in 23 years
30-year yield surpasses 4.95%, the largest jump in 42 years
Deadly math: For every 0.1% increase in yield, annual interest expenses for the US government surge by $36 billion
2. Bloody Arithmetic Behind the Sell-off
Mysterious Forces Strike
Japan publicly denies but secretly reduces holdings by $55.5 billion, China sells $57.3 billion in a single month, and the UK follows with $44.1 billion, as the three countries collaborate to create a "Dollar Black Hole"
Chain Reaction of Death
$8.4 trillion in maturing US debt faces a life-extension crisis
New debt issuance costs surge by $200 billion per week
Collateral devaluation triggers liquidity crisis warnings
3. Trump's Deadly Predicament
Blood Supply Cut Off: Japan, China, and the UK collectively refuse to take on long-term bonds
Interest Rate Trap: The Federal Reserve is forced to enter the bond market = De facto QE
Political Backlash: Tariffs have yet to be collected but $200 billion in interest is already paid
4. Signs of Reversal Emerge
Wall Street begins to short US Treasury futures
Cryptocurrency attracts $18 billion in a single week
Gold breaks $2,500, hitting an all-time high
Summary
This sell-off of US debt is essentially a precise strike against "de-dollarization."
Binance Chat Room 币安王牌KOL专属聊天裙领浮力
#美联储何时降息？ #美国加征关税 #美债
Crises Facing the US:
Either allow the debt crisis to erupt
Or restart the printing press and self-destruct the dollar's credit
1. A Death Spiral Emerges in the US Debt Market
10-year Treasury yield soars to 4.48%, marking the highest single-week increase in 23 years
30-year yield surpasses 4.95%, the largest jump in 42 years
Deadly math: For every 0.1% increase in yield, annual interest expenses for the US government surge by $36 billion
2. Bloody Arithmetic Behind the Sell-off
Mysterious Forces Strike
Japan publicly denies but secretly reduces holdings by $55.5 billion, China sells $57.3 billion in a single month, and the UK follows with $44.1 billion, as the three countries collaborate to create a "Dollar Black Hole"
Chain Reaction of Death
$8.4 trillion in maturing US debt faces a life-extension crisis
New debt issuance costs surge by $200 billion per week
Collateral devaluation triggers liquidity crisis warnings
3. Trump's Deadly Predicament
Blood Supply Cut Off: Japan, China, and the UK collectively refuse to take on long-term bonds
Interest Rate Trap: The Federal Reserve is forced to enter the bond market = De facto QE
Political Backlash: Tariffs have yet to be collected but $200 billion in interest is already paid
4. Signs of Reversal Emerge
Wall Street begins to short US Treasury futures
Cryptocurrency attracts $18 billion in a single week
Gold breaks $2,500, hitting an all-time high
Summary
This sell-off of US debt is essentially a precise strike against "de-dollarization."
Binance Chat Room 币安王牌KOL专属聊天裙领浮力
#美联储何时降息？ #美国加征关税 #美债
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Trump Tariffs - Excerpt from Teacher Qin Jiu Pi Ke
Why is it that at this time, buying U.S. Treasuries has a better cost-effectiveness than buying Bitcoin? How should we operate specifically?
First, let's discuss two concepts.
First, U.S. Treasuries are the cornerstone of modern finance. The entire stock market, real estate market, commodities, and all financial markets you can think of are fundamentally based on U.S. Treasuries.
Second, the price of U.S. Treasuries is inversely proportional to yield, meaning when everyone buys U.S. Treasuries, bond yields will go down, and when everyone sells, yields will go up.
U.S. Treasuries are essentially America's ability, as a person, to continuously borrow new funds to pay off old debts, or rather, its credit. Once the world begins to question America's ability to repay debts, or even to pay interest, the entire stock market, housing market, and the purchasing power of the dollar will start to collapse. A default on U.S. Treasuries would be a nuclear-level event; not just for America, the entire world would enter a depression more terrifying than 1929.
First, let's discuss two concepts.
First, U.S. Treasuries are the cornerstone of modern finance. The entire stock market, real estate market, commodities, and all financial markets you can think of are fundamentally based on U.S. Treasuries.
Second, the price of U.S. Treasuries is inversely proportional to yield, meaning when everyone buys U.S. Treasuries, bond yields will go down, and when everyone sells, yields will go up.
U.S. Treasuries are essentially America's ability, as a person, to continuously borrow new funds to pay off old debts, or rather, its credit. Once the world begins to question America's ability to repay debts, or even to pay interest, the entire stock market, housing market, and the purchasing power of the dollar will start to collapse. A default on U.S. Treasuries would be a nuclear-level event; not just for America, the entire world would enter a depression more terrifying than 1929.
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Why Bitcoin Cannot Replace the Dollar, Let Alone Solve the U.S. Debt Crisis. An In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin, the Dollar, and U.S. Debt
On March 2, U.S. President Trump posted on social media, stating that he would establish a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve centered around Bitcoin and Ethereum.
It was originally a super positive signal, but the market taught everyone a lesson. Within 24 hours, there were dramatic rises and falls, and even more absurdly, some insider addresses profited significantly by operating in advance.
Many people think that establishing a cryptocurrency reserve is a good thing. Why did the price experience a surge only to quickly decline? This article will delve into understanding what determines the price of Bitcoin and what the future holds for it.
It was originally a super positive signal, but the market taught everyone a lesson. Within 24 hours, there were dramatic rises and falls, and even more absurdly, some insider addresses profited significantly by operating in advance.
Many people think that establishing a cryptocurrency reserve is a good thing. Why did the price experience a surge only to quickly decline? This article will delve into understanding what determines the price of Bitcoin and what the future holds for it.
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Prominent Community
Real-time Analysis (2025.1.21)
Analyst: Dr. Louis
#News
Today's Trump inauguration speech and the signed executive orders did not mention anything related to cryptocurrencies.
However, there is no need to feel pessimistic, as the Trump administration may continue to release policies regarding the crypto industry. This is because Silicon Valley giants have previously spent a lot of money on sponsorship and lobbying, and their interests are much greater.
For example, the CEO of Coinbase stated at the Davos Forum, "Cryptocurrency in the U.S. under Trump may see new rules, as congressional legislation could unleash significant investments."
#Macro
① The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yield both fell, with liquidity pressure easing compared to last week.
② Regarding the Japanese monetary policy meeting on January 24, if the Bank of Japan announces an interest rate hike, it could add an extra layer of negative impact on the sluggish market sentiment, leading to greater market downward pressure.
However, the current market environment is different; the yen carry trade positions and the proportion of Japanese stocks held by overseas investors have significantly decreased, coupled with optimistic economic data, the expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have been fully priced in. Therefore, it is expected that the panic sentiment triggered by the BoJ's rate hike last August will be relatively small.
#Technical
Currently, there is resistance at the reference price of the EA arbitrage model's lowest price (around 103000), and with the ongoing market pessimism, a further pullback is not ruled out. If there is a pullback, the first support level is around 97000.
#特朗普 #美债 #BTC走势分析
Real-time Analysis (2025.1.21)
Analyst: Dr. Louis
#News
Today's Trump inauguration speech and the signed executive orders did not mention anything related to cryptocurrencies.
However, there is no need to feel pessimistic, as the Trump administration may continue to release policies regarding the crypto industry. This is because Silicon Valley giants have previously spent a lot of money on sponsorship and lobbying, and their interests are much greater.
For example, the CEO of Coinbase stated at the Davos Forum, "Cryptocurrency in the U.S. under Trump may see new rules, as congressional legislation could unleash significant investments."
#Macro
① The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yield both fell, with liquidity pressure easing compared to last week.
② Regarding the Japanese monetary policy meeting on January 24, if the Bank of Japan announces an interest rate hike, it could add an extra layer of negative impact on the sluggish market sentiment, leading to greater market downward pressure.
However, the current market environment is different; the yen carry trade positions and the proportion of Japanese stocks held by overseas investors have significantly decreased, coupled with optimistic economic data, the expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have been fully priced in. Therefore, it is expected that the panic sentiment triggered by the BoJ's rate hike last August will be relatively small.
#Technical
Currently, there is resistance at the reference price of the EA arbitrage model's lowest price (around 103000), and with the ongoing market pessimism, a further pullback is not ruled out. If there is a pullback, the first support level is around 97000.
#特朗普 #美债 #BTC走势分析
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#美债 #中国经济危机 , as large amounts of foreign capital begin to flee China, is once again forced to sell 11.9 billion US dollars in government bonds to facilitate foreign companies' payments to leave China and stabilize the exchange rate. Currently, foreign exchange reserves have reached 440 billion US dollars. Trump's re-election has intensified trade blockades against China. If Canada and Mexico do not stop purchasing raw materials from China, they may face tariffs. Malaysia and Vietnam are also prohibiting the assembly of Chinese raw materials within their borders to benefit from reduced tariffs on re-export trade, otherwise, they may face sanctions from the United States. Due to non-compliance with contracts stemming from the WTO, the Hong Kong National Security Law, and the Budapest Memorandum, China faces a credit bankruptcy. The Chinese yuan will depreciate in the long term. Personal suggestion: Hold US dollars in the long term, and it is not recommended to open a Chinese-funded bank in Hong Kong as foreign exchange reserves may hit bottom and be subject to forced conversion. Business owners are advised to relocate industrial raw materials to countries like Vietnam. $BTC
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Who knows how to invest idle money on Binance into something stable like US Treasury bonds?
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A story explaining what happened with US bonds
#美债
There is a village with over 200 people.
At the west end of the village is the village chief's house. Everyone pay attention, this village chief is called Xiao Mei.
Xiao Mei is tall and strong, she beats up anyone she catches, and her position as village chief is as secure as an old dog.
One day, Xiao Mei plans to renovate her house. After calculating, she needs 1 million.
But Xiao Mei's annual salary is only 200,000, saving money will take several years.
Xiao Mei thought for a moment and decided to borrow money.
There are over 200 households in the village, who doesn't have some spare cash?
So Xiao Mei started borrowing money and wrote IOUs. Some were to be paid back in a year, some in two years, and there were even ones to be paid back in 10, 20, or even 30 years.
There is a village with over 200 people.
At the west end of the village is the village chief's house. Everyone pay attention, this village chief is called Xiao Mei.
Xiao Mei is tall and strong, she beats up anyone she catches, and her position as village chief is as secure as an old dog.
One day, Xiao Mei plans to renovate her house. After calculating, she needs 1 million.
But Xiao Mei's annual salary is only 200,000, saving money will take several years.
Xiao Mei thought for a moment and decided to borrow money.
There are over 200 households in the village, who doesn't have some spare cash?
So Xiao Mei started borrowing money and wrote IOUs. Some were to be paid back in a year, some in two years, and there were even ones to be paid back in 10, 20, or even 30 years.
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Analysis of Blackrock's tokenized fund BUIDL, opening up a brave new world of DeFi for RWA assets
Analysis of Blackrock's tokenized fund BUIDL, opening up a brave new world of DeFi for RWA assets
Since Blackrock successfully promoted the launch of BTC Spot ETF this year and introduced crypto assets into traditional finance, two months later on March 21, 2024, Blackrock teamed up with Securitize to launch the first tokenized fund BUIDL "BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund" on the public blockchain - Ethereum, introducing traditional finance into the crypto market.
The launch of the BUIDL Fund marks an important milestone in the tokenization of RWA assets. Through the BUIDL Fund, Blackrock, the world's largest asset management company, allows people to witness the future of blockchain technology transforming the financial system and achieve seamless connection between crypto assets and real-world assets.
Since Blackrock successfully promoted the launch of BTC Spot ETF this year and introduced crypto assets into traditional finance, two months later on March 21, 2024, Blackrock teamed up with Securitize to launch the first tokenized fund BUIDL "BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund" on the public blockchain - Ethereum, introducing traditional finance into the crypto market.
The launch of the BUIDL Fund marks an important milestone in the tokenization of RWA assets. Through the BUIDL Fund, Blackrock, the world's largest asset management company, allows people to witness the future of blockchain technology transforming the financial system and achieve seamless connection between crypto assets and real-world assets.
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Gold, the US dollar, and the forecast for 2025
Recently, market conditions have been volatile and somewhat boring. Everyone is discussing the relationship between gold and the US dollar, as well as forecasts for gold trends in 2025. This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice; corrections and additions are welcome.
The relationship between gold and the US dollar
When discussing the relationship between gold and the US dollar, several key factors are often mentioned: nominal interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation.
Typically, gold and the US dollar are negatively correlated; when the dollar strengthens, gold prices fall; when the dollar weakens, gold prices rise, but this is not absolute.
Factors influencing gold prices
Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors. For London gold, the current price is about $2915 per ounce, showing a stable upward trend on a daily basis. Since December 2024, gold prices have been steadily rising.
The relationship between gold and the US dollar
When discussing the relationship between gold and the US dollar, several key factors are often mentioned: nominal interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation.
Typically, gold and the US dollar are negatively correlated; when the dollar strengthens, gold prices fall; when the dollar weakens, gold prices rise, but this is not absolute.
Factors influencing gold prices
Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors. For London gold, the current price is about $2915 per ounce, showing a stable upward trend on a daily basis. Since December 2024, gold prices have been steadily rising.
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