美债

US Debt Nuclear Explosion: Global Sell-off of US Debt Hits America's Lifeline, Is a Financial Storm Coming?

Crises Facing the US:
Either allow the debt crisis to erupt
Or restart the printing press and self-destruct the dollar's credit

1. A Death Spiral Emerges in the US Debt Market
10-year Treasury yield soars to 4.48%, marking the highest single-week increase in 23 years
30-year yield surpasses 4.95%, the largest jump in 42 years
Deadly math: For every 0.1% increase in yield, annual interest expenses for the US government surge by $36 billion

2. Bloody Arithmetic Behind the Sell-off

Mysterious Forces Strike
Japan publicly denies but secretly reduces holdings by $55.5 billion, China sells $57.3 billion in a single month, and the UK follows with $44.1 billion, as the three countries collaborate to create a "Dollar Black Hole"

Chain Reaction of Death
$8.4 trillion in maturing US debt faces a life-extension crisis
New debt issuance costs surge by $200 billion per week
Collateral devaluation triggers liquidity crisis warnings

3. Trump's Deadly Predicament
Blood Supply Cut Off: Japan, China, and the UK collectively refuse to take on long-term bonds
Interest Rate Trap: The Federal Reserve is forced to enter the bond market = De facto QE
Political Backlash: Tariffs have yet to be collected but $200 billion in interest is already paid

4. Signs of Reversal Emerge
Wall Street begins to short US Treasury futures
Cryptocurrency attracts $18 billion in a single week
Gold breaks $2,500, hitting an all-time high

Summary
This sell-off of US debt is essentially a precise strike against "de-dollarization."

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#美联储何时降息？ #美国加征关税 #美债

The debts of the Americans must always be repaid. #美债

It is said that as June approaches, the 65 trillion old debts hang like a noose on the beam, making it hard for people to breathe. Upon closer calculation, this number is not exaggerated — the total amount of U.S. national debt has exceeded 34 trillion, and the daily interest burns away 2 billion, equivalent to the livelihood of a city. In earlier years, they were accustomed to the trick of 'borrowing new to pay old', patching the east wall with the west wall, thus fooling the world. But now, this new debt actually requires five percent interest! Five cents — the ten-year treasury bond interest rate has surged from last year's 1.25% to today's 4.5%. Are the people of the world truly blind? Clearly, a deep pit has been dug, yet they insist on covering it with gold leaf, enticing people to jump in. This kind of calculation resembles that of a street gambler, betting that tomorrow they can borrow another jug of wine.

But the debt of wine is still debt. With no one buying the new debt, how can the old debt be repaid? Just the treasury bonds maturing in June account for thirty percent of the annual maturity amount. The bankers’ abacus beads click loudly, yet the deficit on the ledger grows like wild grass — last year's deficit was 1.7 trillion, and this year adds new wounds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio already surpassing 120%, which is thirty percent more than that before the fall of the Roman Empire. This world has always been like this: countless sweet words when borrowing, and all kinds of excuses when repaying. If in the past it was a 'paper tiger,' today it has become a 'paper money tiger' — unable to even print paper money.

When the dollar collapses, the building will tilt. Overseas creditors are smirking with their ledgers in hand: Japan holds 1.1 trillion, China 780 billion, and even a small country like Belgium has staked 300 billion. The former vassals are likely to scatter like birds and beasts. Allies are now holding their ledgers, coldly watching this drama — the European Central Bank sold off 10 billion in U.S. bonds last month, and Saudi oil money has turned to gold, clearly no longer trusting even 'paper money.' What 'tariff wars,' what 'trade knives,' are merely the dying whispers of a moribund entity.

Yet this world ultimately cannot tolerate those who deceive and steal reputations. The day the debts pile high is the day credit collapses. When the waters run dry, let us see how the hegemony turns to dust, scattered in the wind — no matter how fast the Federal Reserve's printing press works, it cannot outpace the calculations of the people of the world.

Alas! The world says capital is like a tiger, yet it does not know that this tiger can also starve to death. 34 trillion of flesh can never satisfy a bottomless pit.

Recently, the game between US Treasury bonds and Bitcoin has become increasingly interesting, feeling like watching a financial version of a 'cat and mouse game.' US national debt has now surpassed $37 trillion, and the interest alone is consuming 30% of the fiscal budget—who can withstand that? No wonder these big buyers in China are quietly reducing their holdings of long-term US Treasuries.

Interestingly, some of the money that has fled from US Treasuries has actually flowed into Bitcoin. Especially for wealthy individuals in countries like Turkey and Argentina, where their local currencies have depreciated to the point of being unrecognizable, Bitcoin has become their lifeline. Recently, Bitcoin trading volume surged by 300%, and major institutions like BlackRock are getting in on the action, buying 200,000 coins through ETFs, accounting for 1% of the circulating supply—what a bold move!

The policy side is also quite surreal. The US government has surprisingly included Bitcoin in its strategic reserves and there are rumors about implementing zero capital gains tax. As soon as this news broke, meme coins went wild, with daily trading volume soaring by 350%. BlackRock is playing it smart, launching a $2.55 billion tokenized fund, aiming to completely bridge traditional finance and the crypto market.

Speaking of Bitcoin prices, the halving effect this year is still quite powerful. Exchange inventories have dropped from 5 million coins to 3 million coins, and the supply-demand imbalance is directly pushing the price towards $100,000. The Middle East is also playing the game well, reducing their dollar assets while using the Chinese yuan to settle oil, and secretly hoarding Bitcoin on the side—full marks for this operation.

How high do you think Bitcoin can go this time? Will the US Treasury crisis become a catalyst for Bitcoin's explosion? Feel free to share your views on my public account [Crypto Circle - Uncle] where I share the latest market analysis and investment insights every day~#美债

Prominent Community
Real-time Analysis (2025.1.21)
Analyst: Dr. Louis

#News
Today's Trump inauguration speech and the signed executive orders did not mention anything related to cryptocurrencies.
However, there is no need to feel pessimistic, as the Trump administration may continue to release policies regarding the crypto industry. This is because Silicon Valley giants have previously spent a lot of money on sponsorship and lobbying, and their interests are much greater.
For example, the CEO of Coinbase stated at the Davos Forum, "Cryptocurrency in the U.S. under Trump may see new rules, as congressional legislation could unleash significant investments."

#Macro
① The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yield both fell, with liquidity pressure easing compared to last week.

② Regarding the Japanese monetary policy meeting on January 24, if the Bank of Japan announces an interest rate hike, it could add an extra layer of negative impact on the sluggish market sentiment, leading to greater market downward pressure.
However, the current market environment is different; the yen carry trade positions and the proportion of Japanese stocks held by overseas investors have significantly decreased, coupled with optimistic economic data, the expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have been fully priced in. Therefore, it is expected that the panic sentiment triggered by the BoJ's rate hike last August will be relatively small.

#Technical
Currently, there is resistance at the reference price of the EA arbitrage model's lowest price (around 103000), and with the ongoing market pessimism, a further pullback is not ruled out. If there is a pullback, the first support level is around 97000.
#特朗普 #美债 #BTC走势分析

#美债 #中国经济危机 , as large amounts of foreign capital begin to flee China, is once again forced to sell 11.9 billion US dollars in government bonds to facilitate foreign companies' payments to leave China and stabilize the exchange rate. Currently, foreign exchange reserves have reached 440 billion US dollars. Trump's re-election has intensified trade blockades against China. If Canada and Mexico do not stop purchasing raw materials from China, they may face tariffs. Malaysia and Vietnam are also prohibiting the assembly of Chinese raw materials within their borders to benefit from reduced tariffs on re-export trade, otherwise, they may face sanctions from the United States. Due to non-compliance with contracts stemming from the WTO, the Hong Kong National Security Law, and the Budapest Memorandum, China faces a credit bankruptcy. The Chinese yuan will depreciate in the long term. Personal suggestion: Hold US dollars in the long term, and it is not recommended to open a Chinese-funded bank in Hong Kong as foreign exchange reserves may hit bottom and be subject to forced conversion. Business owners are advised to relocate industrial raw materials to countries like Vietnam. $BTC

Who knows how to invest idle money on Binance into something stable like US Treasury bonds?

Could Bitcoin Become the 'Savior' of US Debt? $110,000 is Just the Starting Point!

In just two months, the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed from $74,000 to $111,900, a surge so rapid that it leaves many in disbelief. Many believe this signals the arrival of a bull market, but the reality is different; the real reason lies in the urgent need for the US to resolve its debt crisis.

First, let's focus on the stablecoin legislation recently introduced in the US. This legislation stipulates that if a cryptocurrency issuer wants to obtain a compliant identity recognized by the US, it must be anchored 100% to the US dollar or US treasury bonds. In other words, for every dollar of stablecoin issued, virtual currency companies must use the reclaimed funds to purchase US treasury bonds. Taking the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, USDT, as an example, its asset scale reaches $150 billion, and the issuing company Tether holds as much as $120 billion in US treasury bonds, making bond interest a major source of revenue for Tether. So the question arises: can the stablecoin market become the savior of the massive US debt? The total global trading volume of stablecoins reaches $28 trillion, of which 83% is denominated in US dollars, approximately $23 trillion. In fact, it is not necessary for all $23 trillion to flood into the US bond market to save US debt; addressing the $1.2 trillion interest portion would ensure the orderly operation of the asset chain.

Since last year, the US has been secretly laying out plans in the cryptocurrency field. BlackRock has openly traded virtual currencies, Trump has issued Trump coins, and has pushed for legislation in various states to incorporate Bitcoin and other virtual currencies into the system, with a variety of operations involving cryptocurrency emerging continuously, indicating that cryptocurrency has been politicized. With the implementation of the virtual currency legislation, it is expected that more institutions will join the ranks of stablecoin issuers in the future. It is predicted that the issuance of digital assets may exceed one trillion dollars within the next three years, which undoubtedly opens up a new channel for the US Treasury to automatically purchase US treasury bonds. By then, the market value of Bitcoin is likely to surpass that of gold, and the price of BTC will rise to an unimaginable height! What strategic layout is hidden behind this in the US? How will it reshape the global financial landscape? Let's wait and see.

Follow me for real-time updates on the latest news and market trends in the crypto space.

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$ETH
$SOL

Trump changes his stance daily. The main purpose of launching a global tariff war this time is to implement a debt swap strategy, attempting to promote the issuance of interest-free century bonds, deferring short-term debt repayment pressure, while asking allies to increase their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds under the guise of sharing NATO military expenses.

Secondly, he aims to lower Treasury yields, that is, by creating trade uncertainty, forcing capital to flow back into the U.S. Treasury market, thereby reducing U.S. Treasury yields and saving on interest payments.

Currently, the only certainty in the market is that in 2025, $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature and need to be redeemed, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June alone. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will need to pay more than $300 billion in interest, leading to unprecedented fiscal pressure.

Therefore, it can be expected that Trump's tariff war may gradually become clearer by the end of June.

#美债 #关税战 #特朗普

Tonight, U.S. Treasury Bonds Face a 'Test'!

Tonight, U.S. Treasury bonds will face a 'test' as the U.S. Treasury is set to auction $16 billion in 20-year bonds. This is the first long-term bond auction since Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from the highest AAA level, and the results will directly reflect market confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds.

The market's tension is not without reason.

Just last Tuesday, Japan's 20-year bond auction recorded the worst results in 12 years, leading to a 15 basis point spike in yields in a single day. Wall Street is concerned that tonight's U.S. bond auction may replicate this situation.

Currently, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are approaching the 5% mark. When bond yields soar, it means that bond prices will plummet, causing bondholders to lose money and triggering more selling pressure.

What impact will this have on U.S. stocks? They can easily be 'dragged down' by U.S. Treasury bonds.

Last night, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 ending a six-day winning streak. Part of the reason is that investors are worried about soaring Treasury yields impacting the stock market.

Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that many people are buying options betting that the 10-year yield will rise to 5% in the coming weeks. To hedge against risk, everyone is willing to pay a higher cost for insurance, indicating the market's anxiety.

J.P. Morgan analysts put it bluntly: both trade and monetary policies are filled with uncertainty, and U.S. Treasury yields may experience a 'bear steepening'—in simple terms, long-term rates will rise faster than short-term rates, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook.

In short, tonight's bond auction is like a stress test for the U.S. economy. If the bidding goes poorly, it may trigger a chain reaction: bond market crash → soaring yields → stock market pressure → economic cooling. This vicious cycle is exactly the nightmare that Wall Street is currently most worried about.

#美债

Trump vs Powell!
Trump wildly criticizes Powell as a "fool", urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to save U.S. debt (34 trillion in debt, interest crushing the White House, a 1% cut could save 300 billion!) 🔥 Powell retaliates with CPI data: inflation at 3.3% and you still dare to cut? You're asking for trouble!
Market status:
The dollar soars to 105, BTC falls below 60,000 dollars
U.S. bond yields inverted, recession warning lights all on
The truth for retail investors: politicians fight, retail investors suffer! Rate cuts = betting on inflation explosion, no cuts = betting on U.S. bond default, either way it's explosive, fasten your seatbelts! 💣 #美联储 #美债 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Is Japan really responsible for the plunge in US debt?

In the turmoil in the US bond market earlier this month, were Japanese institutions really the "pusher behind the scenes"?

According to preliminary data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, private institutions including banks and pension funds sold $17.5 billion worth of long-term foreign bonds in the week ending April 4. Another $3.6 billion was sold the following week.

This total of more than $20 billion in sales is one of the largest two-week sell-offs since records began in 2005.

This round of selling came as global stock and bond markets fell into panic after Trump announced his tariff plan on April 2. In the four trading days that followed, the S&P 500 plunged 12%. The US Treasury market was hit hard, with 10-year Treasury yields soaring in the week of April 11, the largest increase since 2001.

Japan once said: It will not sell US debt to counter tariffs.

Previously, the market rumored that as the second largest foreign holder of US debt, Japan may sell US debt to counter tariffs.

On April 9, Wall Street News reported that Japan quickly spoke out amid market rumors and speculation.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato made it clear that it would not use its holdings of U.S. Treasuries as a tool for tariff retaliation:

"We manage our holdings of U.S. Treasuries in case there is a need for future exchange rate intervention."

In addition, according to the Global Times, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said last week that Japan "does not intend to make major concessions and will not rush to reach an agreement" in tariff negotiations with the U.S. government.

"I don't think we should make major concessions in order to quickly end the negotiations," Shigeru Ishiba made clear in Congress, and he also ruled out the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products.

$BTC $ETH
#特朗普施压鲍威尔 #中美贸易关系 #美债

At the end of May and the beginning of June, tens of trillions of US Treasury bonds will mature and need to be redeemed

Current operations must be carried out with great caution

#美债

Yesterday Ethereum pulled back to around $1843, I added some short positions at $1840, and this morning it dropped to around $1785, closing 30% of the positions. Each trade should be planned, including both long and short positions, and I have set profit-taking and stop-loss strategies separately. As we get closer to 630, the U.S. government has to repay $6.5 trillion in U.S. debt, while the U.S. Treasury's cash reserves are only $638.7 billion. How can they repay it? Let's not even talk about interest rate cuts; it could very well collapse. The crypto market usually reacts in advance, so we will wait and see. I remain bearish, especially on Ethereum. #BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美债

U.S. national debt has surged to a new high of $36.58 trillion, and I think the impact on the crypto industry is quite direct.

The U.S. dollar is likely to become even less valuable. Bitcoin and similar assets with a limited supply are expected to be seen as safe-haven treasures by more people, and their prices might rise. However, regulation will certainly tighten, as the government does not want to see money flowing into the crypto sphere.

The market is likely to become more chaotic. Speculative and safe-haven funds will flood in, and volatility will certainly increase. However, this will also help weed out those worthless coins with no practical use. Established coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum may attract more institutional interest.

Overall, there are opportunities, but the risks are also significant; it just depends on who can withstand this wave of turbulence.
#美债