Crypto Meng

Why do I think the Bitcoin market cycle is not over yet?

After breaking through 120,000, BTC has seen a slight pullback today, currently down by 2 points. After such a significant rise, technical pullbacks and high-level profit-taking are very normal.

This week is still cryptocurrency week, with Congress set to review a series of bills, and the market holds a positive outlook on this.

Reasons: ① This market cycle is driven by institutions, with spot Bitcoin ETFs being one of the main drivers for capital inflow. This is not a fleeting moment but is supported by substantial momentum.

② Google search index shows that public interest in Bitcoin has not yet reached the levels of the bull markets in 2021 and 2017. The price rise has not generated a large-scale increase in attention, and downloads of apps like Coinbase have not shown significant fluctuations.

③ From Bitcoin's rainbow chart, it can be seen that the current price has not yet reached the FOMO and bubble regions.

#BTC再创新高

Is Ethereum about to take off? These 10 bullish reasons are making both institutions and retail investors restless...

① Regulation has become friendlier: The new regulatory attitude in the U.S. supports crypto innovation, clarifying through legislation that Ethereum is not a security, and also regulating stablecoins, which encourages institutions to participate with confidence.

② Institutions are piling in: Public companies like SharpLink are making substantial purchases of ETH as reserve assets, leading to skyrocketing stock prices, prompting other companies to follow suit, and even large institutions are joining in, reminiscent of the initial rush for Bitcoin.

③ Technical indicators are bullish: The ETH price has returned above key moving averages, and the charts suggest an upward trend, with many believing that there is little room for decline, making upward movement more likely.

④ Rapid technological upgrades: The recently completed Pectra upgrade has made transactions cheaper and faster, with further scalability improvements expected, resulting in increasingly stronger performance.

⑤ Favorable macro environment: The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, and ETH staking yields are higher than those of government bonds, making investors more inclined to buy; a weaker dollar also benefits crypto assets.

⑥ Staking is very popular: Nearly 30% of ETH has been staked, and there may soon be staking ETFs locking up more ETH, reducing circulation and making prices more likely to rise.

⑦ Layer 2 is exploding: Major companies like Sony and Robinhood are using Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling network, which maintains security while enhancing efficiency, leading to increasing user adoption.

⑧ Everyone is using it: The Trump family’s company has purchased ETH, and PayPal and Visa are also using it for transactions; exchanges and banks in various countries support it, globally recognizing the value of Ethereum.

⑨ The core team is strong: Founder Vitalik is constantly thinking of new ways to upgrade, and the foundation has been restructured to be more efficient, keeping pace with both technology and management.

⑩ Tokens are becoming more valuable: Transaction fees will burn ETH, with newly issued tokens being fewer than those burned, making ETH potentially scarcer, with a supply-demand dynamic favorable to prices.

$ETH

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Mutations! Federal Reserve, big news on interest rate cuts!

Just yesterday, the United States released important non-farm employment data, which greatly exceeded expectations. The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly higher than the previous expert forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped: The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1%, also better than the expected 4.3%.

This data has a huge impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions. Originally, everyone expected that there might be a rate cut in July, but once this strong employment report came out, the market's thoughts changed immediately.

Currently, a rate cut in July seems nearly impossible. According to the interest rate futures market where traders place their bets, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July has risen to over 93%, while the probability of a rate cut is now less than 7%.

In addition, expectations for a rate cut in September have also weakened. Previously, it was generally believed that there would definitely be a cut in September, but now it has shifted to a greater likelihood of either 'maintaining rates' or 'slightly cutting once'.

As soon as the news broke, the dollar rose, gold fell, U.S. stocks also went up, and Bitcoin surpassed $110,000.

Regarding the crypto market, I believe Bitcoin is temporarily still safe. As I mentioned before, the continuous influx of ETF funds into Bitcoin supports its price. However, the lack of an interest rate cut may be pessimistic for altcoins, and the much-anticipated 'altcoin season' may really be delayed or completely hopeless.

In terms of positions, Bitcoin and Ethereum should still occupy a large portion, with a clear siphoning effect. For altcoin positions, try to choose those with narratives and hot concepts, such as stablecoins, and avoid others!

#非农就业数据来袭 #BTC重返11万

$BTC

Historically, altcoin season begins a year after the halving. Now, four out of five signals indicate that 100x altcoins will explode, and if you invest $100, you could see nearly $10,000 this summer. Here are three reasons for the altcoin explosion and four tokens I am watching:

First reason - The cyclic nature of cryptocurrency

Markets typically peak more than 500 days after a halving:

July 9, 2016 halving --> Peak on December 17, 2017 $BTC - $19,000;
May 11, 2020 halving --> Peak on November 10, 2021 $BTC - $69,000;
April 19, 2024 halving --> Peak between September and October $BTC - $180,000;
It's simple, but many people still don't understand...

Second reason - Massive inflow of BTC ETFs

Over $500 million to $600 million enters the market daily through major funds. In just the past month, about $12 billion has been injected and is actively accumulating. This reduces selling pressure, making it easier for the market to reach new highs.

Third reason - Bitcoin market share peak

In 2020, Bitcoin's market share peaked at around 73.5% during the first distribution phase of $BTC, after which altcoins experienced explosive growth lasting about 3-5 months! Now, Bitcoin's market share has peaked at around 66%, and the next phase is ALT growth.

①@wormhole/ $W

wormhole - A key interoperability solution in blockchain that empowers multi-chain builders, applications, and users.

Price: $0.06135
Market Cap: $284.47 million

②@Audius / $AUDIO
Audius - A decentralized music streaming protocol originally built on a Proof of Authority (POA) network, now running on the Solana blockchain.

Price: $0.06186
Market Cap: $82.57 million

③@Humanityprot/ $H

Humanity - A decentralized, user-owned biometric identity system alternative.

Price: $0.02575
Market Cap: $46.99 million

④@DIA | Cross-Chain Oracles for Web3 / $DIA
DIA - An open-source oracle platform that enables market participants to access, provide, and share trustworthy data.

Price: $0.3684
Market Cap: $44.09 million

#Altcoins👀🚀

Great news for the crypto world! Bitcoin and Ethereum can now serve as a 'down payment' for buying a house!​​

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has instructed housing loan institutions to consider cryptocurrencies as assets for assessing risks in residential mortgage loans.

In simple terms, in the future, mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum in your wallet may be used to demonstrate your ability to repay loans, similar to your savings or stocks, helping you qualify for a mortgage.

Why is FHFA doing this? The main reason is that there are too few people taking out loans to buy homes in the U.S. right now; housing prices are high and interest rates are also steep, making it unaffordable for many young people. Thus, officials want to create an opportunity: to allow those who hold cryptocurrencies (but may not have much cash) to have a chance to buy homes. They believe that looking at crypto assets can provide a more comprehensive understanding of a borrower's financial situation.

There are also some limitations:

1. Only cryptocurrencies that can be traded on legitimate major exchanges in the U.S. (such as Coinbase) and can be proven to be in your possession will be considered.

2. Mortgages through certain government programs (such as Federal Housing Administration loans) cannot yet use cryptocurrencies.

For the crypto sector, this is an absolute boon, potentially attracting more people to use and hold crypto assets.

However, there are still significant challenges: the volatility of crypto assets is extremely high, with Bitcoin and others potentially soaring or plummeting by tens of percent in just a week. This poses a major challenge for lending institutions: collateral that is worth $1 million today might only be worth $500,000 next week, raising questions about risk management.

Since Trump took office, he has been working to promote the U.S. as the 'capital of cryptocurrency,' appointing officials who support the industry. This adjustment in mortgage policy is part of his policy direction. The ultimate effect will depend on specific rules and market reactions.

#加密货币

The reason for Bitcoin's drop below $100,000 has been found! A triple blow has breached the defenses

Bitcoin plummeted by 3% in one hour under the impact of news about the U.S. military bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, briefly dropping below $100,000, with over $1 billion liquidated across the network. Some are questioning whether Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes are merely a legend.

The reasons for the drop actually conceal a deeper crisis with three layers:

① The lifeline of oil is threatened: If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could soar to $150. Severe inflation could force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even restart rate hikes, draining liquidity from the crypto market.

② Policy expectations reversal: The market originally bet on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, but this may now be in vain.

③ Trump's tariff bomb: News of the U.S. expanding tariffs on China exacerbates global trade turmoil, adding to Bitcoin's volatility.

However, there is no need for excessive panic. Over the past three years of geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin has consistently followed the script of "panic selling—liquidation—capital inflow."

Current technical analysis shows: $96,000 to $100,000 is a densely traded area; a breach could lead to a drop to this year's low. If it further retraces to $95,000 (the average cost for retail investors), it might be an opportunity to accumulate in batches.

War will not kill Bitcoin, but it accelerates market reshuffling. When the majority are in panic, those calm minds picking up chips amidst the gunfire may be waiting for the next round of revelry. The script for Bitcoin has always been "plummeting in doubt, rebounding in despair."

This time, I believe history will repeat itself!

#BTC走势分析 #以色列伊朗冲突

Powell is 'not in a hurry', strong signals of cooling in the crypto market!

On June 19th at midnight Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it will continue to maintain the current high interest rates. This marks their fourth consecutive meeting deciding not to cut interest rates. However, this was already expected by the market.

Nevertheless, the market is most concerned about Powell's remarks. He clearly stated at the press conference that there is no urgency to cut interest rates, as there are sufficient conditions to wait a bit longer and observe the trends in economic data. He also mentioned that inflation caused by tariffs has recently shown some signs of rising, and they need to be certain that inflation is genuinely on a downward trend before considering cutting rates.

For the crypto market, the delay in expectations for interest rate cuts is obviously a negative signal, but it is typically only a short-term negative. 'Hawkish' signals will suppress market risk appetite, but if subsequent inflation data shows a decline, it may reignite expectations for rate cuts within the year, which would be positive for the crypto market.

#鲍威尔发言

Breaking news! Sun Yang teams up with the Trump family, Tron goes public through a reverse merger, rewriting valuation logic:

Ignited by an explosive piece of news: Tron founder Justin Sun announced that he will achieve a U.S. stock market listing through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment. The orchestrator of this deal is Dominari Securities, an investment bank linked to the Trump family, and Trump's second son Eric Trump may join the new company's management team.

As soon as the news broke, SRM's stock price skyrocketed by 526% in a single day, with the price of $TRX coins rising in sync, prompting the market to exclaim: "The valuation logic of TRX has completely changed!"

This operation by Sun is referred to by himself as the TRON version of MicroStrategy, planning to inject $210 million in TRX tokens as core asset reserves. In the past, TRX's value was anchored to on-chain transaction fees and a destruction mechanism; now, it is endowed with "store of value" attributes similar to gold and Bitcoin, and may even enter the investment portfolios of traditional financial institutions through U.S. stock channels.

More critically, the U.S. SEC's lawsuit against Justin Sun has been paused after a statement of "loose regulation" from the Trump administration, clearing the way for the listing. Political endorsement combined with compliance breakthroughs, TRX has officially jumped from the "gray area" into the mainstream financial system.

As of the time of writing, SRM is reported at $10, with a single-day trading volume increase of 1457%. TRX also rose in tandem, with on-chain trading volume exceeding $20 billion on average per day.

When TRX becomes an asset of a listed company, its valuation logic will shift from "cryptocurrency consensus" to "U.S. stock valuation model". Do you think this experiment with TRX can succeed?

#TRX #SRM

BTC breaks new highs, but no one is paying attention.

No retail investors, no FOMO, no greed! This is the most optimistic bull market signal I've ever seen!

My script can predict the market top ahead of others:

After working in the cryptocurrency field for 7 years, experiencing 3 cycles, and earning over a million, I've learned a thing or two. There are clear signals at every market top.

Currently, none of these signals have been issued. This means one thing: the altcoin trading season is still leading, for the following reasons:

① Market Sentiment:

Current Fear and Greed Index: 55 (Neutral). Compared to the peak of 95 in 2021. Historically, 80+ marks a market peak.

② Altcoin Season Index:

It is an accumulation of the past 3 months. A value below 50 means that $BTC still dominates capital and attention. In the last cycle, this index surpassed 90 before altcoins showed a parabolic trend.

③ Google Trends:

Google trends for "crypto" and "bitcoin" are flat. You can see that peaks indicate market tops and high retail interest. Currently, very few people are interested in cryptocurrencies.

So, why is this happening?

$BTC is not experiencing a parabolic explosion; it is just grinding slowly upwards.

A true top occurs when the chart is completely vertical and remains vertical.

But now this growth is accompanied by significant pullbacks and slow rebounds.

④ App Store Rankings

When Coinbase, Binance, Robinhood, or Moonshot are ranked high in multiple categories, the top is just around the corner.

In any case, these signals cannot absolutely guarantee that the market has reached its peak.

But monitoring these indicators can enhance your confidence in predicting the next market trend.

#BTC☀️

If you missed the early investment in Bitcoin, missed the explosion of DeFi, and missed the madness of Memes, be sure not to miss the rising star in the Solana ecosystem—@Solayer . This opportunity may be more worthy of your attention than ever before:

Why do I believe Solayer will be the future of the @Solana Official ecosystem? There are four main reasons.

1. Technological disruption has upgraded Solana from a 'highway' to a 'maglev train':

For a long time, Solana has considered itself a 'highway', but in the face of the Meme craze, it has struggled during high-frequency trading. Solayer's InfiniSVM technology is like introducing a 'maglev track'—by utilizing hardware acceleration (such as RDMA networks), multiple execution clusters, and sharded databases, it pushes theoretical throughput to millions of TPS, reduces transaction latency to sub-microsecond levels, and can handle a trading volume in one second that is over 15 times Solana's peak, completely solving the congestion issue.

2. A complete financial ecosystem with a closed loop of yield—payment—security.

In addition to technology, Solayer's advantage lies in constructing a complete financial ecosystem. Solayer's sUSD offers a 4% annual yield, while traditional piggy banks can only hold cash. Backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, sUSD allows your money to 'make money.' Imagine putting 10,000 yuan into this 'digital piggy bank' and getting an additional 400 yuan after a year, which is much higher than many banks' savings interest.

3. There is also native SOL staking, which is like renting out an idle house for rental income. If you hold SOL tokens, previously you could only watch them idly. Now, through Solayer's high-yield Mega Validator, you can rent out these 'idle' SOLs for substantial returns.

4. The most noteworthy is the Emerald Card, which is a 'super connector' between the crypto world and real life. The globally accepted Visa Emerald Card supports direct consumption of assets like sUSD and LAYER, and comes with rewards such as transaction rebates and airdrop priority. This design allows crypto assets to seamlessly integrate into everyday payment scenarios for the first time, addressing the pain point of 'earning coins but not being able to spend them.'

In summary, Solayer is reshaping Solana's infrastructure to create an efficient, secure, and sustainable on-chain financial environment. I am optimistic about the Solana ecosystem and even more about Solayer's future!

#Solayer无限硬件加速

The altcoin season will start on June 13, and this is your last chance to earn millions!

Bitcoin is entering an accumulation phase, and altcoins are ready for 100X! The following 5 low-market-cap altcoins will bring you a 100X return:

Cryptocurrency has followed a 4-year cycle since the beginning, and now, amidst the discord between Trump and Musk, the market is flooded with a lot of FUD. The next phase is significant growth! All this FUD is part of cyclical manipulation; here are the signals for $BTC growth...

How to determine that the altcoin season is about to begin?

① Bitcoin market share indicator is declining;
② Capital flowing into altcoins;
③ Increased interest in altcoins on social networks and mainstream media.

These are fundamental standards predicted in past cycles.

How did the altcoin season of 2021 start?

The Bitcoin market share indicator peaked in April at 70% and then began to decline — funds flowing into altcoins.

ETH/BTC formed a golden cross: In May, the 50/200 day SMA crossed and lit up the “green light.”

The total market cap of altcoins rose by 150% in 6 weeks — from $600 billion to $1.5 trillion.

Now history is repeating itself — parabolic growth is coming!

1、@DeFi_JUST/ $JST

This is a DeFi ecosystem based on TRON, focusing on stable returns. Built around the $USDJ stablecoin and $JST token for interest payments and participation in voting.

2、@saros_xyz / $SAROS

An integrated Web3 application based on Solana, combining a wallet, decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFT), SolanaPay, and a decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) in one mobile solution.

3、@BeldexCoin/ $BDX

A privacy-focused Web3 ecosystem for secure transactions and data exchange, launched in 2018. Includes its own browser, VPN, messenger, and bridges.

4、Swap_Solana / $SOS

A decentralized asset exchange tool running on Solana, operating as an autonomous community.

5、@ChintaiNexus/ $CHEX

The utility token of the Chintai network, used for platform resource management.

#AltSeasonComing

The "Golden Cross" of Altcoins has appeared again! In 2021, this caused altcoin prices to rise by 7,000%. In just a few months, $100 turned into $7,000. This time, the chart confirms the same situation; it’s time to go all in.

The following 7 altcoins have the potential for 10-50 times returns:

Many are unaware, but every indicator suggests that we are entering a massive altcoin season. A brutal bear market trap is forming, ready to shake off the weak hands.

This summer will be exceptionally active; it’s not too late to start Ape now.

The global M2 money supply further confirms my argument. BTC's performance lags behind this index, indicating significant market expansion this year.

Just like the good old days: $BTC rises ➜ BTC market share declines ➜ Altseason.

1）@AIWayfinder| $PROMPT

WayFinder AI agent conducts cross-chain trading, executes smart contract functionalities, and performs on-chain transactions.

➢ Price: $0.2
➢ Market Cap: $42 million

2）@KernelDAO | $KERNEL
Kernal Dao is a liquid staking protocol.

➢ Price: $0.15
➢ Market Cap: $25 million

3）@Nillion | $NIL
Nillion is a network for private computing and data storage that uses enhanced privacy technology for secure, encrypted data processing in AI and databases.

➢ Price: $0.44
➢ Market Cap: $87 million

4）@SKYAIpro| $SKYAI

Skyai is an AI ecosystem powered by MCP that integrates intelligent solutions for various industries.

➢ Price: $0.045
➢ Market Cap: $45 million

5）@HaedalProtocol| $HAEDAL

Haedal is a liquid staking protocol built on Sui.

➢ Price: $0.13
➢ Market Cap: $26 million

6）@KaminoFinance| $KMNO

Kamino Finance provides a one-click auto-compounding concentrated liquidity strategy, which has quickly become the most popular LP product on Solana.

➢ Price: $0.05
➢ Market Cap: $120 million

7）@sophon| $SOPH

Sophon is revolutionizing the entertainment industry by utilizing a modular Layer 2 solution with ZK Stack on the zkSync superchain.

➢ Price: $0.05
➢ Market Cap: $107 million

#山寨币热点

The bull market begins in summer, and the 'sell in May and go away' strategy has failed. The altcoin trading season is about to arrive, but only for the right tokens. These 5 altcoins have the timing and catalyst factors in place, with the potential to reach 5-10x:

Everyone is shouting that 'altcoins are dead', that Ethereum will never rise again. However, we can hear such voices in every cycle.

Don't say this cycle is over; it is just unfolding at its own pace.

Remember past peaks:

➢ 2013: $1242
➢ 2017: $19,000
➢ 2021: $69,000

So, we still have 4-5 months to complete this cycle.

Why are ETH and altcoins lagging? The reason is simple.

BTC has not yet peaked.

There's a saying: 'Coins look perfect when they are about to fall.'

BTC has completed about 90%.

ETH has also proven this: when things look the worst, the only way is up.

Altcoins have matured, which is a good thing. This is the signal that they are about to start pumping.

1) @GRASS_OFFICIAL | $GRASS

Grass allows users to monetize their internet connection by selling unused network resources.

Price: $2.4
Market Cap: $580 million

2) @Pendle | $PENDLE

Pendle is a yield trading protocol that allows users to tokenize and trade future yields by leveraging top yield-generating protocols.

Price: $4.3
Market Cap: $705 million

3) @Ondo Finance | $ONDO

Ondo Finance is dedicated to enhancing the security, efficiency, and accessibility of financial services through institutional-grade on-chain products.

Price: $0.93
Market Cap: $2.9 billion

4) @Ethena Labs | $ENA

Ethena aims to transform Ethereum into a global internet bond by taking delta-neutral positions on stETH, creating the first crypto-native, yield-bearing stablecoin: USDE.

Price: $0.37
Market Cap: $2.1 billion

5) @SeiNetwork | $SEI

The Sei network is a layer one blockchain for digital asset trading.

Price: $0.22
Market Cap: $1.1 billion

#altsesaon

Breaking News: The United States has just approved futures trading for cryptocurrencies, with Asia and Europe likely to follow suit soon, releasing billions in new liquidity for cryptocurrencies. This is why it is so bullish + 5 low-priced tokens to watch:

Every major cryptocurrency rebound requires a catalyst.

In Q1 2024, Bitcoin ETF approval.

In Q4 2024, Trump wins and announces SBR.

Now, we have just received the next catalyst to drive the alternative investment rebound.

This time, the United States has announced it will allow perpetual contract trading for cryptocurrencies.

Why is this important?

➢ Increased trading volume
➢ More retail traders
➢ Enhanced liquidity

Even after BTC hits new highs, this will still drive cryptocurrency prices further up.

Moreover, this aligns perfectly with other bullish catalysts:

➢ Global quantitative easing
➢ Easing of trade wars
➢ Regulatory support for cryptocurrencies
➢ New ETFs coming soon

And there will be more, both from macro factors and from cryptocurrencies themselves.

1) $PURR

Purr is Hyperliquid's official meme coin.

Price: $0.21
Market Cap: $130 million

2) @animecoin| $ANIME

Anime is a memecoin associated with Azuki NFT.

Price: $0.03
Market Cap: $168 million

3) @io.net | $IO

io allows users to share unused GPU computing power with AI companies that need it.

Price: $1.1
Market Cap: $183 million

4) @Arkham | $ARKM

Arkham is a blockchain analytics startup that provides an intelligence platform revealing real-world entities in the crypto market.

Price: $0.7
Market Cap: $175 million

5) @cookiedotfun| $COOKIE

Cookie3 is a data-driven toolkit that tracks everything from yaps to swaps.

Price: $0.3
Market Cap: $155 million

#加密市场反弹

Breaking News! The United States plans to purchase 1 million $BTC with gold, which will inject $2 trillion into cryptocurrency. Every dollar now will turn into $10,000 in a few weeks. These 7 low-priced tokens could yield 10-30 times profits:

While retail investors have been buying altcoins, large holders have also been continuously purchasing more $BTC. The U.S. may even use gold to back its Bitcoin reserves.

What is the goal? To replace gold.

The shift of global power happens like this: silently, then suddenly.

An obvious signal is that @Strategy is purchasing $BTC for $1 billion weekly. Saylor has a close relationship with Trump and may already know what’s about to happen. He believes gold will be used to accumulate Bitcoin. If gold-backed BTC purchases start, the price of altcoins will skyrocket.

1) @ZeusNetworkHQ | $ZEUS

Zeus Network is a permissionless communication layer that seamlessly integrates Solana and Bitcoin.

Price: $0.21
Market Cap: $82 million

2) @bounce_bit | $BB

BounceBit is building BTC re-staking infrastructure, providing a foundational layer for various re-staking products.

Price: $0.17
Market Cap: $93 million

3) @griffaindotcom | #GRIFFAIN

Griffain is a coordinated AI agent network that helps you take action on-chain.

Price: $0.098
Market Cap: $98 million

4) @clankeronbase | #CLANKER

Clanker is an autonomous agent for deploying tokens.

Price: $34
Market Cap: $34 million

5) @Nillion | $NIL

Nillion is a decentralized network that uses Nil messaging computation for secure data transmission, storage, and processing.

Price: $0.45
Market Cap: $88 million

6) @cookiedotfun | $COOKIE

Cookie DAO is the first index and data layer for all AI agents.

Price: $0.15
Market Cap: $77 million

7) @HeyAnonai | $ANON

Hey Anon is an AI decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol aimed at simplifying decentralized financial interactions and aggregating key project-related information.

Price: $7
Market Cap: $98 million

#比特币突破11万美元

Tonight, U.S. Treasury Bonds Face a 'Test'!

Tonight, U.S. Treasury bonds will face a 'test' as the U.S. Treasury is set to auction $16 billion in 20-year bonds. This is the first long-term bond auction since Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from the highest AAA level, and the results will directly reflect market confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds.

The market's tension is not without reason.

Just last Tuesday, Japan's 20-year bond auction recorded the worst results in 12 years, leading to a 15 basis point spike in yields in a single day. Wall Street is concerned that tonight's U.S. bond auction may replicate this situation.

Currently, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are approaching the 5% mark. When bond yields soar, it means that bond prices will plummet, causing bondholders to lose money and triggering more selling pressure.

What impact will this have on U.S. stocks? They can easily be 'dragged down' by U.S. Treasury bonds.

Last night, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 ending a six-day winning streak. Part of the reason is that investors are worried about soaring Treasury yields impacting the stock market.

Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that many people are buying options betting that the 10-year yield will rise to 5% in the coming weeks. To hedge against risk, everyone is willing to pay a higher cost for insurance, indicating the market's anxiety.

J.P. Morgan analysts put it bluntly: both trade and monetary policies are filled with uncertainty, and U.S. Treasury yields may experience a 'bear steepening'—in simple terms, long-term rates will rise faster than short-term rates, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook.

In short, tonight's bond auction is like a stress test for the U.S. economy. If the bidding goes poorly, it may trigger a chain reaction: bond market crash → soaring yields → stock market pressure → economic cooling. This vicious cycle is exactly the nightmare that Wall Street is currently most worried about.

#美债