苏八戒__宏观经济

The first quarter GDP exceeded expectations with a growth of 5.3%. Why do ordinary people feel it isn't good? Is the Asian financial crisis about to return? Why is the US economy still thriving? Zhu Bajie's macro analysis for April will guide you through the global macroeconomic trends.
First, the domestic sector released the CPI data for the first quarter in April. From the graph, we can see the fluctuations in January, February, and March data this year. Some people noticed a significant decline in March data and thought the economy was collapsing, but this was actually caused by the disturbances from the Spring Festival in 2023 and 2024 occurring in different months. Therefore, comparing quarterly data would be more accurate. The year-on-year CPI growth for the first quarter of 2023 and 2024 is 0%, and the year-on-year data for the last quarter of last year was -0.3%. Overall, it appears to be gradually shifting from negative to positive. Starting from the second half of last year, domestic consumer spending gradually entered a deflation stage. Based on the data from the first quarter of this year, although there is some alleviation, it can only be described as stabilizing at a low level. Currently, in my observation, there is a K-shaped differentiation in Chinese consumer spending. There is a noticeable reduction in large-scale purchases, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market, which has led to sluggish consumption across the entire real estate chain. However, consumption in smaller categories such as dining, tourism, and beverages has shown considerable growth. This graph also indicates that the categories with significant year-on-year growth are primarily small-scale consumption, which may have substantial reference value for secondary market trading. Speaking of tourism, the data for the Qingming Festival in April was impressive, with a more than double increase in the volume of people compared to the same period in 2019. From this graph, we can also see that the tourism industry has overcome the shadow of three years of black swan events and is back on a growth track. Coupled with the K-shaped differentiation in domestic consumption we just mentioned, there is a certain investment value in the tourism sector from a long-term perspective. The domestic stock market also began a wave of speculation on tourism concepts in mid to late April, which had already raised expectations for a bright May Day tourism season. However, caution is advised for profit-taking soon after. GPI data has been stagnant for several months, and it is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term. Looking directly at the overall situation for the first quarter, the GDP data for this year was released in April, showing a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%. Our annual target is 5%, so this data indeed exceeded expectations, and 5.3% growth is currently among the highest globally. But why do many people around us feel that they haven’t sensed the strength of this growth and still haven’t made much money this year? We can find the answer by breaking down GDP. Firstly, the primary industry of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery only grew by 3.3% in the first quarter, which is below the total increase of 5.3%, and we can see that the growth rate has been declining year by year. Those engaged in this industry account for over 20% of the total workforce, primarily from the lower strata of society, so their poor perception of economic growth is objectively caused by the weakness in industrial growth. The secondary industry, which contributed mainly to growth, grew by 6% in the first quarter. Behind the impressive data is industrial differentiation. By observing the relationship between copper prices and steel frames, we can gauge the heat of the construction and manufacturing industries. Currently, China's construction industry is stagnant due to the real estate crisis, but the manufacturing sector, especially in the eastern coastal areas focusing on exports of electronic appliances and automobiles, has shown significant recovery this year, with some upstream equipment manufacturers even experiencing explosive orders. The latest PMI data also further supports the above conclusions. These hot manufacturing sectors are the underlying reasons supporting the 6% growth in the secondary industry. Moreover, while real estate in the construction sector remains frozen, infrastructure is still benefiting from various special bonds and project bonds issued by the central government since the second half of last year. This has allowed the construction industry to limp along, with one leg still able to walk, ultimately not dragging down the bright growth of the secondary industry too much. However, as mentioned earlier, currently, only a small portion of the manufacturing industry is thriving, and only a few within that industry are secretly making money, while the vast majority of workers in the secondary industry are not benefiting from this growth. This results in a situation where, despite a 5.3% economic growth in the first quarter, wages have not increased. Whether manufacturing can fully recover in the future remains to be observed, but this new normal of a half-fire, half-water situation may persist for a long time. Additionally, a reminder for everyone: the central government's special bond and project bond dividends that were mentioned earlier have already been gradually disbursed. After the beginning of this year, the central government has noticeably reduced the issuance of bonds, and the infrastructure sector, which is still able to walk, may gradually lose its source of blood transfusion in the second half of this year. Therefore, even though the GDP performed well in the first quarter, everyone should not be overly optimistic. Before the global tightening cycle ends, our economy may not see significant improvement. Finally, regarding the tertiary industry, what was the first quarter growth? It was 5%. From the graph alone, there isn’t much to see, but when combined with electricity consumption data, it becomes more interesting. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 14.3%. The first industry grew by 9.7%, and the second industry grew by 8.0%. It can be observed that while the electricity consumption of the service industry grew by 14.3%, its output value only grew by 5%, indicating that the growth in electricity consumption far exceeds its output value. Similarly, the first industry has a similar issue, which shows that people are still striving to produce, open shops, and run businesses, but they are not making much money. There are many people busy for no reason, and not only are people busy for no reason, but money also isn’t flowing to where it should go. According to the central bank’s data, as of March this year, China’s broad money supply has surpassed 300 trillion yuan for the first time, with M2 and M1 growth rates still at historically high levels. Too much money flowing into banks on fixed-term deposits has continuously prompted the state to actively lower deposit interest rates multiple times over the past two years. Currently, the 10-year government bond rate is 2.26%, but in March, the central bank stopped lowering interest rates. In contrast, the 10-year government bond rate shows no signs of rebounding; the 2.26% rate has been a low point in over ten years, and after a substantial decline, it hasn't rebounded at all, which is rare in the history of government bond trading. The market's reaction tells us a lot of information, but for specific deductions regarding the bond market, the interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans has also reached 3.71%, down 0.15% from the previous month and down 0.46% compared to last year, currently at an absolute historical low and has further room for decline. However, even with interest rates at such levels, the real estate market remains half-alive, and the first-hand housing market is particularly affected. From this long-term view, we can see that the sales of the top 50 real estate companies in the first quarter fell sharply year-on-year, and suddenly this year, no one is buying new houses, leading many real estate companies into a vicious cycle of difficulty in cash collection and credit rating downgrades. The first-hand housing market indeed requires support from the national level for the major real estate companies that have reached the brink of survival; otherwise, there is a possibility of systemic risks erupting, which cannot be ignored. Currently, the excess money supply has nowhere to go. Previously, it could flow into real estate to preserve value and appreciate, but now real estate has been abandoned. The question of where the new reservoir, or the next real estate, is, is something everyone is concerned about. This has also led to the frenzy of gold trading domestically over the past two months, where gold prices in March and April reached record highs amid the background of declining expectations in the United States. The final prediction from the top ten predictions video is that bonds and gold will outperform the market this year. Currently, both government bond futures and gold prices have reached new highs. Although there is still more than half a year left, this outcome is highly likely. Gold has now broken away from traditional pricing logic; previously, gold was negatively correlated with the dollar, meaning that rising US interest rates led to an increase in the dollar's value, which in turn suppressed the price of gold, an asset that does not generate interest. However, despite the current high-interest rate environment in the US, gold has surprisingly risen in tandem with the dollar's increase in March and April, primarily due to a decline in global confidence in the dollar. Over the past three years, central banks worldwide have continuously increased their gold reserves, with an annual growth rate of 1.9%, and China has increased its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months. Coupled with the waves of regional conflicts, the safe-haven attribute of gold has been activated, making it difficult for gold prices to adjust downward from high levels. The continuously rising international gold price has also stimulated the nerves of domestic investors, as a large amount of accumulated currency seems to have found a place to go, leading to a dramatic increase in domestic gold prices far exceeding international levels. The nationwide rush to buy gold reminded me of the previous nationwide rush to buy houses. But can gold become the new reservoir? Clearly not, as gold's supply is not monopolized, so it cannot be priced by the government like housing. The excess profits may ultimately be earned by small players who transport gold overseas into the domestic market daily. The frenzy of speculation in gold is detrimental to the government, so gold will never be able to become a signed reservoir like real estate. Recently, many places have begun to introduce policies to restrict speculation. For example, Shenzhen has started requiring real-name registration for gold transactions exceeding 20,000 yuan, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented trading limits for gold futures, etc. Now, for a specific judgment on the future trend of gold.