苏八戒__宏观经济

I believe that the era of Mrs. Watanabe in China has come again.
Back in the 1990s, Japan experienced a stock market bubble, followed by a real estate bubble that burst in 1991. Japan then faced a decline in asset prices for nearly two to three decades. Whether it's the stock market or the real estate market, who are the 'Mrs. Watanabes'? They specifically refer to wealthy individuals in Japan, as 80% of Japan's wealth is concentrated among the elderly, because young people in Japan have no money. Moreover, the money among the elderly in Japan is mainly controlled by their wives, not their husbands. Consequently, Mrs. Watanabe, aged over 50, holds 80% of the national wealth of Japan. So what do they do? They find that there isn't much good property to buy in Japan, and the stocks aren’t appealing either, leading them to invest overseas, purchasing USD, assets, American stocks, U.S. bonds, etc. This situation is quite similar to what is happening domestically. For instance, I particularly understand why many of us have recently come to buy Hong Kong insurance; it's because people suddenly realize that before, they were major investors primarily buying properties. Now, they find that properties no longer have a profitable effect, and the savings rate of residents is around 17 billion, but now with the interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements, money will become less valuable, resulting in a domestic asset shortage. While I believe that this year, the A-shares in the domestic stock market also have opportunities, the operation is challenging, and the risks are high. Secondly, the stock market cannot bear such a large amount of capital. Therefore, a lot of money needs to find good targets. You can see why in recent years, Japanese properties, particularly in Tokyo, have been completely purchased by Chinese individuals, including how our Hong Kong savings insurance has been the same. Hong Kong savings insurance is simply where you put 1 million into a Hong Kong insurance company, which then allocates to U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, Japanese bonds, and Japanese stocks, investing in good assets worldwide. I genuinely believe this is a very good product, and it is guaranteed to preserve capital in the long run. Can you guarantee capital preservation with gold? Not necessarily. Gold has price fluctuations and can be volatile. However, this product is long-term and guaranteed. For example, it might triple your investment in 20 years. For ordinary people, it’s the best lazy investment method for the wealthy.

Bitcoin's monetary endorsement for stablecoins is like gold's monetary endorsement for paper currency. Recently, everyone has been very concerned about stablecoins. So, what’s the purpose of stablecoins? The next thing the Americans are planning to do is to say that they hold the most Bitcoin, and they are also issuing stablecoins. In fact, every country can issue its own stablecoins without any problem. Moreover, American stocks and assets can also be put on the blockchain, and transactions can be made using stablecoins. At the same time, what are stablecoins for? What is the backing of stablecoins? Why would other countries want to buy your stablecoins? USDT is equivalent to a stablecoin. One USDT is backed by 1 US dollar, right? This means it creates an enormous online currency demand, and these stablecoins have opened up a new world of demand for US dollars. For example, what does it mean for the demand for dollars to expand? For instance, in 1971, when the dollar and the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and the dollar decoupled from gold, was the dollar being unreasonable? The dollar decoupled from gold, no longer exchanging 1 ounce of gold for 35 dollars. Although it seems that the dollar was being unreasonable, the decoupling was actually inevitable. Because at that time, the world entered a peaceful era, a developmental era, a prosperous era, and a trading expansion era, which required a large amount of dollars for trade settlement. As a result, gold was only over 8,000 tons, right? The amount of gold was far from sufficient to meet the volume of trade settlements. Therefore, the Americans actually have a strong incentive to promote the issuance of stablecoins. Because now, the mining power, in the U.S., the backing of stablecoins for payment is called the dollar, and they have already completed the connection between stablecoins and the dollar. Then, Bitcoin's monetary endorsement for stablecoins is like gold's monetary endorsement for paper currency; everyone must understand this. That’s why many say Bitcoin is digital gold. Where does the value lie? The value of gold lies in backing the currency. Remember, gold backs paper currency, it backs fiat currency, gold backs the dollar, and gold backs the renminbi. Now, because the dollar is causing various issues worldwide, the renminbi says that while I think the dollar is still the best in the world, I don’t want to have an absolute competitive relationship with the dollar. Before 2010, you could say that the renminbi and the dollar were strongly bound. If the dollar wants to cut you off, it can. From 2012 to 2015, our foreign exchange reserves in dollars were nearly 3 trillion dollars; what does that mean? 3 trillion is now down to 700 billion, right? What happened to that? It was diversified into yen, euros, etc., and also diversified into gold. This is why central banks have been purchasing gold recently; why? To back their own renminbi. So Europe is buying gold, Japan is buying gold, we are buying gold, Taiwan is buying gold.

Quantification is the use of technology to earn money in the cryptocurrency world, considered a way to simplify complex operations. However, quantification is a relatively trendy model in China. In recent years, many people have indeed made a considerable amount of money based on quantitative strategies. Some mainstream strategies include well-known concepts like arbitrage across exchanges, statistical arbitrage, more complex strategies such as GPA strategies, and even more complicated derivatives types. There are also some who engage in discretionary trading. For these quantitative institutions to succeed, they must go through several steps. First, they must be Chinese. Second, should they establish a company in China? Third, should they raise funds from retail investors? Fourth, what should be done with the raised funds—should they be placed in user accounts, managed through accounts, or pooled together to operate? Different strategies dictate different attributes, right? Then, if they grow large and attract investors, they would also have to consider building their own pool. They must recognize that this might resemble illegal fundraising, right? Therefore, they think about how to comply with regulations. Someone might suggest, can I set up the entity in the BVI, establishing a legal entity there? Second, if I engage in a fund model, do I need to establish a fund license overseas, especially concerning secondary market fund licenses? Because if you want to handle contracts and options, it may involve issues related to secondary market fund licenses, right? After obtaining this, institutions will also need to deal with the cryptocurrency of Chinese users, or the RMB attributes associated with Chinese users' coins. Some may consider signing an agreement with users, requiring these users to be associated with an overseas entity. Would having an overseas entity sign this investment contract with the institution help avoid legal issues? One must consider this layer, and there’s a fifth layer—the most complex aspect is where the business is located, whether domestically or overseas. If it’s domestic,

If you usually trade stocks, just casually open the shareholder list of a large company, isn't there always a BlackRock among the top ten? This company manages over $10 trillion in assets globally. With subsidiaries in dozens of countries, how is it harvesting the world? You might be hearing about it for the first time, but look at the chip in your phone; Nvidia's second-largest shareholder is BlackRock. The second-largest shareholder of your Apple phone is also them, and even Musk's Tesla has BlackRock as a major shareholder. Even Taiwan's TSMC has them as its second-largest shareholder. You might think that's it, but let's look at our own territory: Tencent's fourth-largest shareholder is them, JD.com's fourth, Alibaba's third, and Baidu's third. Even in Ping An of China, BlackRock's shadow lurks as the fifth-largest shareholder. Anyway, just randomly flip through a well-known company, one with a larger scale in stocks, and see if BlackRock is among the top five shareholders. They are so powerful—it’s not just an investment company; they are essentially the shadow boss of global enterprises.