苏八戒

I believe that the era of Mrs. Watanabe in China has come again.
Back in the 1990s, Japan experienced a stock market bubble, followed by a real estate bubble that burst in 1991. Japan then faced a decline in asset prices for nearly two to three decades. Whether it's the stock market or the real estate market, who are the 'Mrs. Watanabes'? They specifically refer to wealthy individuals in Japan, as 80% of Japan's wealth is concentrated among the elderly, because young people in Japan have no money. Moreover, the money among the elderly in Japan is mainly controlled by their wives, not their husbands. Consequently, Mrs. Watanabe, aged over 50, holds 80% of the national wealth of Japan. So what do they do? They find that there isn't much good property to buy in Japan, and the stocks aren’t appealing either, leading them to invest overseas, purchasing USD, assets, American stocks, U.S. bonds, etc. This situation is quite similar to what is happening domestically. For instance, I particularly understand why many of us have recently come to buy Hong Kong insurance; it's because people suddenly realize that before, they were major investors primarily buying properties. Now, they find that properties no longer have a profitable effect, and the savings rate of residents is around 17 billion, but now with the interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements, money will become less valuable, resulting in a domestic asset shortage. While I believe that this year, the A-shares in the domestic stock market also have opportunities, the operation is challenging, and the risks are high. Secondly, the stock market cannot bear such a large amount of capital. Therefore, a lot of money needs to find good targets. You can see why in recent years, Japanese properties, particularly in Tokyo, have been completely purchased by Chinese individuals, including how our Hong Kong savings insurance has been the same. Hong Kong savings insurance is simply where you put 1 million into a Hong Kong insurance company, which then allocates to U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, Japanese bonds, and Japanese stocks, investing in good assets worldwide. I genuinely believe this is a very good product, and it is guaranteed to preserve capital in the long run. Can you guarantee capital preservation with gold? Not necessarily. Gold has price fluctuations and can be volatile. However, this product is long-term and guaranteed. For example, it might triple your investment in 20 years. For ordinary people, it’s the best lazy investment method for the wealthy.

The US stock market deserves a major correction. The US stock market finally had a decent drop, and I'll explain the logic behind it. Why did the US stock market experience a significant correction last night? Actually, it depends on the sector. Some highly hyped stablecoin concepts generally fell more. For example, Coinbase plummeted 15% last night, but some technology companies fared better and didn't fall as much.

Everyone should remember that the Federal Reserve only focuses on two indicators: inflation and employment.

- First, whether inflation is well controlled. Everyone knows that moderate inflation is beneficial to the economy, while malignant inflation is very harmful to the economy. Therefore, once it occurs, as in 2020 when the global trade was disrupted by the pandemic and inflation flew to six or seven points, the Federal Reserve began violent interest rate hikes at the end of 2021, so the Federal Reserve hopes to control inflation at two points.

U.S. economic data has collapsed, and the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma.

The U.S. economic data has collapsed. The U.S. just released the non-farm employment data for July, which is 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000. What does 73,000 represent? In the past, during good economic times, the non-farm employment data would show an increase of 200,000 to 300,000 in a single month. This year, the overall data has declined by about 150,000, but now it has been directly halved.

Moreover, in the minds of institutions on Wall Street, 100,000 is a warning line, meaning that if data is above 100,000, it can be said to be a 'soft landing' for the economy, and then it slows down. But when the data falls below 100,000, the 'recession' label can be attached to it.

Don't think that Trump is insincere. Let me ask you something: Trump posts his opinions on social media every day, and often his viewpoints are inconsistent, even contradictory. Ordinary people might think that as the President of the United States, he is like a social media addict who tweets every day, being insincere. But he is actually being clever; why does he repeatedly tweet? Think about it, he is constantly testing and calibrating the market's feedback on what he is going to do next through his tweets.
Because economic and monetary decisions, once made, can shake the entire national economy's direction. If this policy is issued directly, may I ask, if it goes wrong, how significant would the harm to the market and the economy be? It would actually be very large. He first sends out a few tweets before the official announcement to gauge the market reaction. The U.S. stock market fell, and bond yields rose, indicating how people were reacting to this situation. Then I understand, and I can adjust accordingly.