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Real-time Analysis (2025.1.21)
Analyst: Dr. Louis
#News
Today's Trump inauguration speech and the signed executive orders did not mention anything related to cryptocurrencies.
However, there is no need to feel pessimistic, as the Trump administration may continue to release policies regarding the crypto industry. This is because Silicon Valley giants have previously spent a lot of money on sponsorship and lobbying, and their interests are much greater.
For example, the CEO of Coinbase stated at the Davos Forum, "Cryptocurrency in the U.S. under Trump may see new rules, as congressional legislation could unleash significant investments."
#Macro
① The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yield both fell, with liquidity pressure easing compared to last week.
② Regarding the Japanese monetary policy meeting on January 24, if the Bank of Japan announces an interest rate hike, it could add an extra layer of negative impact on the sluggish market sentiment, leading to greater market downward pressure.
However, the current market environment is different; the yen carry trade positions and the proportion of Japanese stocks held by overseas investors have significantly decreased, coupled with optimistic economic data, the expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have been fully priced in. Therefore, it is expected that the panic sentiment triggered by the BoJ's rate hike last August will be relatively small.
#Technical
Currently, there is resistance at the reference price of the EA arbitrage model's lowest price (around 103000), and with the ongoing market pessimism, a further pullback is not ruled out. If there is a pullback, the first support level is around 97000.