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A series of events impacting the market will occur in succession, starting with the U.S. Treasury Department announcing its future bond issuance scale on Wednesday, followed by the monthly non-farm payroll data on Friday, which will show whether the degree of economic cooling is sufficient to justify further interest rate cuts.
Next week, there are even more important events: the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the Federal Reserve meeting two days later, which will be the first meeting since the Fed began easing monetary policy in September.
In the past month, U.S. Treasury bonds have sharply declined, as the continued strength of the economy has led to doubts about the extent of interest rate cuts by the Fed in the coming months. The presidential election adds uncertainty, with some investors speculating that Donald Trump's victory will push up yields, as the market expects his tax cuts and tariffs to exacerbate inflationary pressures and keep interest rates elevated.
Although the Fed began easing policy last month by 50 basis points, after data showed the economy expanding at a relatively fast pace, traders dismissed the once prevalent expectation that the Fed would continue to cut rates rapidly. The result has been a sharp rise in yields, driving up borrowing costs across the market and pushing U.S. Treasuries toward their first monthly decline since April.
"So far, this has been a very important period, and a lot could happen in the next two weeks," said Sinead Colton Grant, Chief Investment Officer at BNY Wealth.
This series of important news events increases the risk that selling pressure could intensify in the coming weeks, especially as investors prepare for the U.S. election outcome. One sign is that traders are paying the highest cost this year for options seeking to protect their portfolios from the impact of rising yields.
However, some upcoming events may also provide support to the bond market. The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce in the next quarter that it will keep Treasury auction sizes stable, avoiding any supply-side pressure, although traders will also closely monitor any signals regarding future trends.
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