海绵进化论

Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

This round of bull market is tough, summarized in one sentence:

Even the secondary dogs don't play,

The primary pattern players die.

Operational Details:
Commonly seen just before a sudden drop in prices due to negative news, such as project disputes or abnormal on-chain data.
In reality, these negative factors have little impact and are mainly used for shaking out investors.
Summary

True market manipulation usually does not disrupt the fundamental control structure (such as the proportion of main force holdings and stable liquidity).

If it's an on-chain token, focus on the liquidity pool. If there is a large-scale withdrawal from the liquidity pool and large orders are flowing out, then it is not market manipulation; it indicates that the operators are looking to exit.

How does the operator wash the market, what are the methods of washing, mastering the operator's psychology, and not getting washed out is key to achieving big results. Today, I will explain it clearly in a long article, so take your time to read.
Generally speaking, the purpose of washing the market is to force out the weak-willed retail investors to prepare for a subsequent price increase.
The methods of washing can be mainly divided into:
1. Smash-type washing
Method: Suddenly placing a large sell order at the market, or directly smashing the market with a large order, driving the price down.
Characteristics: Significant drop in a short time, panic emotions, and sudden increase in trading volume.
Purpose: To force out panic sellers and stop-loss orders, filtering out the holders.

Operational details:
Quickly breaking key support levels, such as moving averages or previous lows, to create panic.
During the drop, buying back a portion at low levels.
Often accompanied by fake news and FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) being released simultaneously.
2. Sideways oscillation washing
Method: Repeated sideways oscillation within a certain range to harvest short-term traders.
Characteristics: Price fluctuates slightly up and down, trading volume gradually decreases, and time is extended.
Purpose: To exhaust short-term funds, causing the impatient ones to sell.
Operational details:
Often quickly pulling back after a local rise, creating a “false breakout” to deceive both bulls and bears.
Letting holders feel “hopeless” for a long time, leading them to automatically sell.
3. Needle-type washing
Method: Suddenly dropping sharply within a very short time to form a long lower shadow, then quickly pulling back.
Characteristics: The K-line shape shows a “needle” (long lower shadow), with the price returning to its original position or close to it.

Purpose: To quickly shake off stop-loss orders, creating a moment of panic.

Operational details:
Usually, the needle will be accompanied by on-chain order cancellations, liquidity harassment, and other operations.
The operator will support at the bottom, and after washing the chips, continue the original trend.

4. News-based washing

Method: Using negative news and panic public opinion to create psychological impact.

Characteristics: Panic emotions among retail investors leading to active selling.

Purpose: To accelerate the washing out of holders, reducing selling pressure during the subsequent price increase.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on April 29: BTC, ETH Today's Highlights
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC maintained a sideways trend, and the movement remained healthy. Recently, pay more attention to fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and there is significant resistance above. The expectation is to continue consolidating during the day. Previous positions can be appropriately reduced, and the long-term market is recovering, so be patient and wait.
Ethereum follows BTC for a synchronous consolidation. Those who entered earlier can appropriately reduce their positions. Long-term holders should patiently wait for stabilization. The expectation is to maintain consolidation during the day, with a corrective market.
Altcoins follow mainstream coins for synchronous consolidation, with little fluctuation. If mainstream coins stabilize, consider slight follow-ups. Binance has been quite active recently, and the BSC ecosystem is expected to recover, so pay attention to CAKE, which currently remains healthy and could be followed. The activity on the SOL chain continues to rise, so pay more attention to MEME coins. For coins already held, be patient and wait for the market to warm up.
Today's Highlights:
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, and the daily level has returned to a healthy level. The expectation is to maintain consolidation during the day, with support at 93,000-93,500 and resistance at 95,000-95,500.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, and the daily level has returned to a healthy level. The expectation is to maintain consolidation during the day, with support at 1,700-1,750 and resistance at 1,830-1,880.

The BTC trend is very strong, and after this round of increase, there has been basically no major pullback. Once it stabilizes around 95,000, it will surely break 100,000 in May, and a new round of explosion will officially begin.

Currently, ETH is still hovering around 1,800 and has not yet stabilized. Whether ETH can stabilize depends on: first, BTC maintaining stability and continuing to break through; second, gradually developing a strong independent market. Don't rush; in terms of increase and potential, once the market starts, I believe ETH offers better value for money.

Triple benefits drive BTC to break through $95,000:

1️⃣ Global economic turmoil highlights Bitcoin's "digital gold" properties

2️⃣ The AI/NFT craze in the crypto space fuels retail FOMO sentiment

3️⃣ Technical breakthroughs at key levels trigger quantitative buying

⚠️ Risks:
• Beware of large holders pushing prices up after building positions at $75,000
• "Stably above $100,000" may be a lure for more buying
• BTC's characteristic of "rising but not falling" may present traps

Recommendation:
Long term → Stick to regular investment, ignore short-term fluctuations

What will happen next?

1. In the long term, the future is bright:

1) Bitcoin, as the leading cryptocurrency, has entered the mainstream world's vision and has the potential to become a reservoir for U.S. Treasury bonds and an outward extension of the U.S. dollar;
2) In the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world, Bitcoin's hard redeemability will inevitably play a better and larger role.

2. In the medium term, the adjustment is not yet over:

1) When prices rise, consensus is strong, and strong consensus means everyone has a common expectation. What were the previous expectations? Interest rate cuts, ETFs, Trump's victory—these are all expected or already realized actual benefits;

2) Now, these benefits have already materialized, and there are currently no particularly strong consistent benefits to look forward to in the market. For example, regarding interest rate cuts, there is a discrepancy between Powell and Trump, which indicates inconsistency;

3) When market consistency is strong and consensus is formed, a trend will emerge; similarly, when market consistency is weak and discrepancies form, a volatile market will emerge.

When will it rise?

1. From a technical perspective, when the indicators of the long cycle are oversold and a bottom is established;

2. From a macro perspective, when current uncertainties are gradually digested and accepted by the market, then the market moves from the worst conditions to not-so-bad, then to better, and finally to increasingly better;

3. From the cryptocurrency circle itself, look at this chart:

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on April 28: BTC, ETH Highlights for Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC continued to consolidate, maintaining a healthy trend. Recent focus should be on fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with significant resistance above. The expectation is continued consolidation during the day. Previously accumulated holdings can be appropriately reduced, as the long-term market is recovering, so patience is key.
ETH followed BTC in consolidation; those who entered previously can consider reducing holdings. Long-term holders should patiently wait for stabilization, with the expectation of continued consolidation during the day, indicating a corrective market.
Altcoins are consolidating in sync with mainstream cryptocurrencies, with limited fluctuations. If the mainstream stabilizes, mild follow-ups can be considered. Binance has been active recently, and the BSC ecosystem is expected to warm up; CAKE could be a focus, as it is currently maintaining a healthy status and could be worth following. The activity on the SOL chain is steadily increasing, so more attention could be given to MEME tokens. For accumulated tokens, patience is required while waiting for the market to warm up.
Highlights for Today:
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, and the daily level has also returned to healthy levels. The expectation is continued consolidation during the day, with support at 92,500-93,000 and resistance at 94,500-95,000.
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, and the daily level has also returned to healthy levels. The expectation is continued consolidation during the day, with support at 1,700-1,750 and resistance at 1,830-1,880.

To be honest, I just can't understand this market this year...
The drop at the end of February didn't hit hard.
The rise in mid-April was missed...
Back and forth, anyway, I guess I'll just lie flat...

I don't know how you all are doing?
Is the investment/trading after the Spring Festival in 2025 going smoothly?

Recently, the overall trend has been quite good, institutions are buying a lot. If Bitcoin stabilizes at 95,000, reaching 100,000 shouldn’t be a big problem. At that time, altcoins will also see a wave of sector rotation. Here are five popular Meme coins recommended:
DOGE: A well-established Meme coin, endorsed by Musk, strong culture, leading the bull market, expected to surge in the second half of the year.
SHIB: A myth of ten thousand times, astonishing growth, still has potential in this round.
PEPE: A star of frog culture, after washing out, will hit mainstream exchanges, strong K-line, expected growth.
FLOKI: A multi-purpose Meme coin, the team is burning tokens, supports payments, collateral, governance, shines in the bull market.
BOME: Low market cap, great potential, K-line oscillation, worth paying attention to.

The current secondary counterfeit market can be a starting point for a treasure hunt process with monthly and annual cycles:
Note:
1. Old projects transforming, new blooms on old trees;
2. New projects, popular and not yet disproven tracks;
3. Must maintain a low market cap, with sufficient growth potential;
4. Already listed:
① Observe the subsequent trends of the tokens, and refer to the rhythm of major projects' cyclical rises and dips (monthly and annually);
② Observe whether the project team has ongoing actions;
5. New things, narrative + control, both are essential; without a narrative, sustainable development is impossible, and lacking control indicates insufficient financial strength.

You always feel that waiting in cash for opportunities is a waste of time.

But what you are really wasting is making random moves in a market without trends, consuming yourself during periods with no winning probability.

You are not just half a step slower on the road to making money,

You are mistaking patience for weakness and treating random orders as a form of control.

When emotions can't hold up, that's when you rush to trade;

When the rhythm is thrown off, that's when you get trapped by the false proposition of 'not being able to stay in cash.'

Ultimately, staying in cash is not failure,

Not being able to endure staying in cash is.

4.27 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: BTC, ETH Today's Highlights
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC consolidated sideways, maintaining a healthy trend. Recently, pay more attention to fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and significant resistance above. The expectation is to continue consolidating during the day. Previous positions can be appropriately reduced, as the long-term market is recovering; patience is required.
ETH followed BTC in a synchronized consolidation. Those who entered earlier can also reduce their positions appropriately. Long positions should patiently wait for stabilization, with the expectation of maintaining consolidation during the day, leading to a corrective market.
Altcoins are synchronously consolidating with mainstream coins, with minimal fluctuations. With the mainstream stabilizing, light participation may be considered. Recently, Binance has been active, and the BSC ecosystem is expected to recover. Attention can be given to CAKE, which is currently maintaining a healthy status and may be worth following. The activity on the SOL chain is continuously rising, and more attention can be given to MEME tokens. For those already holding coins, patience is needed while waiting for the market to recover.
Today's Highlights:
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, and the daily level has also returned to a healthy range. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with support at 93000-93500 and resistance at 95000-96000.
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, and the daily level has also returned to a healthy range. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with support at 1700-1750 and resistance at 1830-1880.