海绵进化论

Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

How to turn 5,000 into 1 million in the crypto world? First, everyone remember to lie down and watch during the day, as this makes it easier to dream.

1. First half of 2025: Buy the dip on BTC before the bull market, hold until it breaks the previous high of 112,000. Reason: In the early stages of the bull market, BTC's dominance will rise, sucking the life out of altcoins, and BTC will continue to be strong.

2. Second half of 2025: BTC breaks the previous high of 112,000, switch to ETH + trending altcoins: AI, Web3, L2, blockchain games, metaverse, NFT, social, RWA, decentralized concepts, new public chains, BTC ecosystem, staking, MEME, filter quality coins for layout.

3. First half of 2026: Gradually escape at the top. Short BTC, low leverage long-term short.

4. Second half of 2026: Take profits on short positions. Stage bottom ambush: BTC, ETH, quality new projects, layout for a small bull (a rebound in a bear market).

5. Prepare for a new round of the big bull market in 2028-2029.

I think the original sin of PUMP being banned
is that it became too popular and made too much money

At this stage, the on-chain market
has already drained the secondary market
Funds and emotions are on-chain
leading to many secondary projects being unable to launch

Various market manipulators have pointed their arrows at SOL
Many public chains are struggling to maintain
At this time, PUMP stands out
snatching the limelight from the SOL chain
and taking a slice of the capital cake

This account naturally needs to be settled properly

Structure determines strength, trend reveals rhythm.
In a rising market, not all currencies are strong.

Some currencies may appear to be rising, but their structure is actually very weak —
Each pullback after a rise breaks the previous high support, the structure is damaged, and the rebound lacks continuity; these are weak currencies.

The truly strong currencies have the following trend pattern:
Pull back after a rise, hold the previous high, do not break key support, higher highs and higher lows, complete structure, smooth rhythm.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on June 17: BTC, ETH Today's Highlights
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC rose again, exceeding expectations, as the impact of geopolitical conflicts weakened. The upward momentum at the 4-hour level has not shown significant enhancement and still needs adjustment. At the daily level, attention is on volume changes; if the upward trend strengthens, a new rising cycle is expected. The weekly trend remains healthy, with a focus on fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and maintaining expectations of consolidation during the day. Attention is on the support level of 165,000; if it holds, consider following up. In terms of the larger cycle, the weekly golden cross has formed, and a new round of market activity is expected to start.
Altcoins follow BTC with a synchronous rise, with significant fluctuations. The upward momentum at the 4-hour level is hindered, so pay attention to breakout conditions. The daily level is recovering well, focusing on the breakout situation at the resistance level of 2,650; if it effectively breaks, consider following up.
Altcoins are rising slightly alongside mainstream coins, but the altcoin index is still not high. We are waiting for mainstream coins to stabilize before considering following up. Coins under ETH are heavily influenced by ETH, waiting for stabilization before considering following up. Recently, Binance activities have been frequent, with continuous Alpha points activities; you can accumulate points and wait for the next round of activities. The activity on the SOL chain is continuously rising; more attention can be paid to MEME coins.
Today's Highlights:
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, and the daily level has also returned to a healthy range. Expectations for the day remain in consolidation, focusing on the stability of the support level. The intraday lower support is 106,000-106,500, and the upper resistance is 108,500-109,000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, and the daily level has also returned to a healthy range. Expectations for the day remain in consolidation, focusing on breakout conditions at the resistance level. The intraday lower support is 2,500-2,550, and the upper resistance is 2,650-2,700.

In the past month, the Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net inflow every day, but the price of Ethereum has hardly increased, leaving only two possibilities:
1. The data is incorrect
2. There are whales or retail investors continuously selling, offsetting the net inflow.

Summary of the different types of assets on Binance Alpha:
1. Directly giving up after going on Binance Alpha
These projects complete their distribution on Binance Alpha, regardless of the K-line trends;
This type of project can be divided into two categories: one is the projects that have their initial TGE, and the other is older projects that suddenly revive and go on Alpha;
Both types of projects will eventually be dumped, especially pay attention to high market cap old coins, which may experience a cliff-like dump;
2. Going on Binance Alpha is just the beginning
This type of project is the initial launch project on Alpha, which will quickly go live on Binance Spot, Futures, Korean exchange, Coinbase, etc., maximizing liquidity as soon as possible to complete distribution;
3. Struggling on Binance Alpha for a long time, neither alive nor dead
The K-line is not that bad, there is still trading volume, and you can go for a Binance Futures contract, then just lay flat;
4. Meme on Binance Alpha
The first three types are mainly VC coins, while the fourth type is memes, mainly based on BSC memes, and then there are ecological coins from various chains, such as Sonic Sui, etc.

The question I was asked the most today is, what will Alpha brush next.
I will share the results of my test from last night.
AB tested it out, and it can brush during an upward wave, but whenever there is a downward trend or a spike, it is easy to get cut. The worst performance last night was a loss of 5U on a 1000-dollar trade, and the best performance was making 10U after finishing a single account, but this does not mean AB can brush mindlessly.
Look at those rows of earth and sky needles in Taiko, along with various other tokens, there aren't really many good options, so you can only test on your own.

The conclusion is: do not brush during crazy spikes, do not brush when the 1-minute line is in a downward trend, do small amount testing, and once something is wrong, immediately switch targets, and lower the amount of brushing. Previously, I was brushing 30,000 to 60,000 daily, now I will switch to lower tiers and focus on gradual development.

Currently, no good targets have been found on the BSC chain, so today I plan to dive into looking at Solana and SUI chains.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on June 16: BTC, ETH Highlights for Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC maintained consolidation, with reduced impact from geopolitical conflicts. The upward momentum at the 4-hour level is not strong. Pay attention to the breakout situation at the resistance level of 16,500. The daily level still needs adjustment, while the weekly trend remains healthy. Focus more on fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and maintain a consolidation expectation for the day, primarily observing. In the long term, the weekly golden cross is forming, and a new round of market activity is expected to start.
Altcoins are consolidating in sync with BTC, returning above 2,500, with a good adjustment state at the 4-hour level and a good recovery at the daily level. Pay attention to the breakout situation at the resistance level of 2,650.
Altcoins are synchronizing with mainstream coins, and the altcoin index is still not high. Waiting for mainstream coins to stabilize before considering following up. Coins under ETH are heavily influenced by ETH, waiting for stabilization before considering following up. Recently, Binance has been very active, with continuous Alpha points activities; you can accumulate points and wait for the next round of activities. The activity on the SOL chain is continuously rising, so you can pay more attention to MEME coins.
Today's Highlights:
BTC has returned to a healthy range at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and the daily level is back to a healthy range. Expectation for the day remains consolidation, pay attention to the breakout situation at resistance levels. The support for the day is 104,500-105,000, and resistance is 106,000-107,000.
ETH has returned to a healthy range at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and the daily level is back to a healthy range. Expectation for the day remains consolidation, pay attention to the breakout situation at resistance levels. The support for the day is 2,450-2,500, and resistance is 2,600-2,650.

The ETH small level has started to rebound again, and the current price has reached the upper edge of the fluctuation line, but there are some signs of a potential breakout. It is likely to be a false signal. My plan is to short first and then go long near the resistance line.

I expect to consider entering a short position in the 2570-2590 range, which is the resistance line. A short position here could be good, with a target around 2470, which gives a fluctuation of about 100 points. Additionally, if the price breaks and stabilizes above the upper edge, I will exit the long position and chase the rise.

Let's talk about what the Israel-Iran conflict really affects

First, on a macro level, the main impact is still the expectation of interest rate cuts.

First is inflation, which is primarily driven by oil prices due to Iran's actions. Wall Street estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could rise to $90-130 per barrel. It is known that for every $10 increase in oil prices, the CPI rises by 0.4-0.5 percentage points. This means that if oil prices break $100, the probability of a rate cut before September is low, and inflation risks continue.

Next is the risk aversion sentiment; stocks have plummeted, and spot gold has hit historical highs. The next step is to see whether Iran will escalate the conflict. If so, the consensus for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year will be forced to delay, disrupting the pace of liquidity recovery, and the market will struggle to withstand pressure and remain depressed.

Of course, the impact on the cryptocurrency sector is quite evident, with a total market value evaporating by $420 billion in 24 hours. This does not account for dilution from unlocking. Under the sentiment of capital seeking safety, most investors prioritize cutting high-leverage altcoins; do not have any expectations for the short-term altcoin season.

Bitcoin's resilience remains superior to mainstream altcoins, with capital briefly flowing into derivative shorts and stablecoins.

However, the good news is that most investors are first converting their holdings back to dollar stablecoins rather than fiat currencies, which is a clear distinction from the MEME crash at the beginning of the year.

Still, the saying goes: until the uncertainty premium is completely hedged by central bank and fiscal policies, holding US dollars is the optimal guideline for survival during high volatility periods.

From the perspective of investment return rates, July is also one of the months with high returns in the year, second only to February and October. It can be seen that Bitcoin in July is expected to continuously refresh its price and set new historical highs.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on October 6: BTC, ETH Highlights Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC rebounded from an oversold condition. Pay attention to the developments in the Iran situation. The 4-hour level consolidation looks good. If there are no major escalations regarding Iran, subsequent issues should not be significant. The daily level has broken down and needs to be repaired again and still requires adjustment. The weekly trend remains healthy, keep an eye on fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and focus on event developments during the day, primarily observing. In the larger cycle, the weekly golden cross formation suggests a new round of market activity may be starting.
Ethereum (ETH) followed BTC with a synchronized rebound, returning above 2500, and the 4-hour adjustment state looks good. Waiting for event developments, primarily observing, and will consider after stabilizing.
Altcoins are following mainstream coins with a synchronized rebound, but the altcoin index is still not high. Waiting for mainstream coins to stabilize before considering following up. Tokens under ETH are significantly influenced by ETH, waiting for stabilization before considering following up. Recently, Binance has been very active with continuous Alpha point activities. You can accumulate points and wait for the next round of activities. The activity level on the SOL chain is continuously rising, and you can pay more attention to MEME tokens.
Highlights Today:
BTC is below the healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, while the daily level has returned to the healthy range. Focus on event developments during the day, primarily observing and waiting. Daily support is at 104000-104500, with resistance at 106000-107000.
ETH is below the healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, while the daily level has returned to the healthy range. Focus on event developments during the day, primarily observing and waiting. Daily support is at 2450-2500, with resistance at 2600-2650.

VIRTUAL AIXBT COOKIE WLD…
Up 2% in a day, down over 10% in a day+
A frustrating market, and I don't want to open the exchange; out of sight, out of mind.
But recently, there have been opportunities every day.
After the hedgehog RICO's pullback and consolidation, it feels like there's another wave coming.
Today I'll keep an eye on it to see if there are any other golden dogs that can make a move.

Israel and Iran have gone to war, BTC has fallen in the short term

But history will prove:
The real safe-haven asset is not gold, not US Treasuries, but Bitcoin

Short-term volatility, long-term belief
21 million coins, not relying on anyone's endorsement, and not afraid of anyone's sanctions

Analyzing the recent strategies of industry giants:

$POL: Polygon founder Sandeep Nailwal takes full control of the foundation, focusing on the development of Agglayer; the old zkEVM is being phased out, with an improved PoS chain Gigagas targeting stablecoin payments and RWA.

The route is completely forked, with Agglayer pursuing cross-chain capabilities, while PoS aims for an on-chain PayPal payment gateway.

$XRP: Nasdaq-listed company VivoPower deploys $100 million XRP through Flare's FAssets protocol, using the profits to continuously repurchase XRP, forming a self-compounding treasury, effectively introducing XRP into compliant programmable and high-yield scenarios, and replicating the treasury compounding model on-chain. In other words, XRP primarily provides institutions with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and liquidity insurance.

$ONDO: Ondo Finance migrates the tokenized U.S. Treasury fund OUSG to the XRP Ledger; redemptions use Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD, facilitating institutions to directly purchase U.S. Treasury bond yields, with Ondo acting as the settlement layer.

$WLD: Native USDC has been integrated into Worldcoin, allowing for direct payments and settlements within its identity network.

$ETH: Former Ethereum researcher Péter Szilágyi claims to have rejected a $5 million request for Geth's independence proposal and accuses the Ethereum Foundation of secretly funding a competing Geth team, confirming the existence of governance power struggles within Ethereum.

In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war caused Bitcoin to drop by 13%
In October 2023, the Israel-Palestine conflict caused Bitcoin to drop by 6%
In June 2025, the Israel-Iran war caused Bitcoin to drop by 5.5%

It is evident that wars have a significant impact on risk assets like Bitcoin, as almost every war leads to a decline.

Every time we encounter such war-like sudden market conditions, the recovery is relatively fast. Still keep an eye on $pepe, $sui, $aave, with $pepe below 1 as the first choice to consider entering. It is not recommended to hold with leverage; just hold as it is. As mentioned yesterday, currently the altcoin selection is focused on the leading sectors, and we can look at what is popular.