海绵进化论

Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

Let's state the conclusion:

① Break through and hold above the 119100 line, continue to look bullish, first aim for the 119800 line, where there will be some pressure, but it shouldn't be significant. After that, it's the 【121100-121500】 range, which is the extreme position for this effective rebound. As for whether there will be a new high, we will discuss that when the price reaches this point.

② Adjust to go long. The defense level is at the 117900 line, meaning that if the price falls below this level again, the adjustment may continue, and there is a chance it could drop to the 116900 line. If it holds above, we can only continue to look upwards. The support range for a slight adjustment is 【118300-118500】, where a short-term long position can be attempted.

③ Will there be a larger adjustment? Not for now. But it must be mentioned that only when the price falls below the 115300 line again will there be a larger adjustment. However, based on the current trend, this possibility seems low.

This is the BTC daily chart example:

The overall structure is in a bullish trend,
The short-term structure is in a high-level consolidation,

Looking at the overall structure, there is no systemic risk here,
Looking at the short-term structure, the consolidation has reached its final stage, and the probability of moving up in the regular fluctuations is higher (needs to be coordinated with minor internal breakthroughs), but after rising, it will face a new pullback segment caused by high-level divergence.

This is roughly the entire background of the BTC trend, and recent articles have been developed within this framework.

Recently, a few good opportunities to consider:
In Cex:
1. Plan to see if $spk can stabilize around 0.06-0.07 for a rebound
2. Check if there’s an opportunity to take advantage of the stablecoin in Hong Kong in August
3. Looking to enter $Asr in football on a pullback (without contracts, only pump can exit)

On-chain:
1. Observing the rebound of $uranus at the moment
2. Memecoins are performing poorly; planning for 2k, ideally around 1k for an opportunity
3. $aol added to the watchlist
4. $fair3 on BSC added to the watchlist; already established a position
5. Most of the positions from a few days ago are still valid

Summary:
In a fluctuating market, as long as it doesn’t break around 115k, the outlook remains bullish. Focus on placing rebound buy orders + on-chain second-stage pullbacks.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on July 29: BTC, ETH Today's Highlights
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC experienced a slight correction and adjustment, with the 4-hour trend recovering. The support at 118,000 is effective, and if it holds, there is hope for further upward movement. The daily level has recovered well, and the trend has returned to a healthy state. Pay attention to changes in trading volume. The weekly trend has shown some recovery, so keep an eye on fundamental information, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process. The expectation for the day is to remain in a consolidation phase, and in the long term, a new round of upward cycles on the weekly chart has been initiated.
Altcoins have begun independent trends, with a good 4-hour performance, slight corrections, and poised for action. The daily level trend is somewhat aggressive, but currently recovering well, with trading volume remaining healthy. However, the short-term increase has been too rapid, so watch for volume expansion on the 4-hour chart. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with altcoins following mainstream trends upward.
The altcoin index remains at a moderate level, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered. Pay attention to BTC's market share situation, fiat currency buying signals, and determine altcoin activation signals. Coins under ETH are more impacted by ETH, so it can be considered to follow up. Keep an eye on PENDLE, which shows a good trend and is expected to rise. Recently, Binance has been very active, with continuous Alpha points activities. You can collect points, and there have been many big deals recently, so it's a good opportunity to take advantage of the situation.
Today's Highlights:
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal levels, and the daily level has also returned to normal levels. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with support at 117,500-118,000 and resistance at 120,000-121,000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal levels, and the daily level has entered the overbought zone. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with support at 3,700-3,750 and resistance at 3,850-3,950.

virtual aixbt wld lpt
Shanzhai will be trapped once bought, it's too difficult
Coins like cake uni in the BNB and ETH ecosystem have not risen as much as the main coins
The operators want retail investors to cut their losses on shanzhai and switch to mainstream
Recently, there are more and more projects in the crypto stock market
But the coins haven't really risen much, it's more about cashing out from the shells in the US stock market
There really isn't much new money in the crypto space,
We need more meme myths to attract hot money into the market
Recently, still pay more attention to the on-chain.

Do you know why it fell?

Because everyone expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week, but it didn't, and the rate cut was postponed, leading to a natural fluctuation and drop in the market.

However, no matter what, the rate cut is only delayed, and it's basically certain for September, so don't panic; the market is giving you an opportunity!

This wave of BNB has gone crazy, does everyone know why? Because the last wave of BNB didn't rise much, the washout was thorough. In contrast, SOL surged significantly last time, and many people heavily invested in SOL, making it too heavy to rise. The same logic applies to ETH, when everyone is pessimistic, it unexpectedly catches everyone off guard.

So everyone can appropriately allocate to Binance ecosystem projects, such as CAKE and XVS altcoins. Buy a little, and when it rises enough, sell and switch back to mainstream!

PEPE has not yet launched, and there is only one reason for the weight of the vehicle, which is not the market's lack of interest in the narrative. In terms of IP, narrative, community consensus, and strength of the platform, it is all top-notch. Since people have now lost expectations for PEPE, it is actually a good thing. I only know that in every bull market, it will not disappoint people.
The real meme leader's launch will bring about the rise of altcoins and on-chain trends; no matter how much the fake leader SPX rises, it will not create wealth effects.

Data tells you how BTC will move in the short term:

On the order book, in the last 12 hours, the amount of sell orders has exceeded that of buy orders, and the price of the coin has risen to around 120,000, facing heavy pressure. It is estimated that BTC is highly likely to experience another decline and adjustment, continuing the volatile market.

The 80,000+ BTC held by ancient fossil hands have basically been sold off, and there will be a Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on Wednesday, with a 90% chance of no rate cut. Therefore, at the beginning of this week, BTC is likely to adjust downwards, just a slight drop.

July 28 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: BTC, ETH Highlights for Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC broke through resistance and continued to rise, the 4-hour trend is recovering, pay attention to the support at 118,000. If it holds, there is hope for further increases. The daily level is recovering well, and the trend is returning to a healthy state. Pay attention to changes in trading volume. The weekly trend has somewhat recovered, focus more on fundamental information, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and expect a consolidation during the day. In terms of the long cycle, a new round of upward cycle on the weekly chart has started.
The secondary market has started an independent trend, the 4-hour trend is good, a golden cross has formed on the axis, ready to launch, the daily level trend is somewhat extreme, but currently recovering well, with healthy trading volume. However, the short-term increase has been too rapid, pay attention to the volume situation in the 4-hour chart, and expect a continued rise today.
Altcoins are rising in sync with the mainstream, the altcoin index remains at a medium level, market sentiment has somewhat recovered, pay attention to BTC's market share situation, fiat buying signals, and judge the altcoin launching signals. Coins under ETH are more influenced by ETH, consider following up, pay attention to PENDLE, the trend is good, and it is expected to rise. Recently, Binance has been active, and Alpha points events are ongoing, you can use the points. Recently, there has been a lot of profit to be made, so take advantage of it.
Highlights for Today:
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, the daily level has returned to normal. Expect a slight pullback followed by a continued rise during the day, with support at 118,000-118,500 below and resistance at 120,000-121,000 above.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, the daily level has entered the overbought zone. Expect continued rise during the day, with support at 3,750-3,800 below and resistance at 3,900-4,000 above.

2025 Bull Market Reflexivity Thinking:
① Since there was a clone season in the historical Q4 (2017), it is highly probable that this round of bull market will experience fluctuations in Q4 and then turn bearish.
② Historically, there has been no clone season in Q3, and there is no memory of this in human thinking, so the probability of a clone season in this Q3 is the highest.
Things to note:
People are overly optimistic due to the night market and naively think back to the clone season in Q4 2017, escaping the peak too late, ultimately placing their hopes on next year's interest rate cut.
However, the force of mean reversion is greater than everything.
Emotional factors are ranked second and can only determine the mid-term peak. For example, at the end of 2024, if the greed index reaches 95°, it indicates a mid-term peak, but not the peak of a four-year cycle.
As for the news front, it is ranked last. There are too many news factors in a bull market; if there isn't this news, there will be that news, and it can also be anticipated in advance.
The first interest rate cut is somewhat useful, the second leads to a rebound, and the third results in a decline.
Mean reversion (fundamentals) > emotional factors > news factors (positive news).

Today, my friends in the crypto circle are saying that they haven't made any money in this bull market; instead, they have lost their dowries!

I thought that, like in previous bull markets, by choosing some altcoins and holding them without making rash moves, I could make several times my investment. However, the reality is that I have lost several times instead.

In this round of the bull market, many people are extremely confused about altcoins, thinking they were buying at the bottom, only to find themselves trapped at a high point?

Especially those popular meme coins and Layer 2 concept coins, they go crazy when they rise and even crazier when they fall! Market sentiment has shifted from 'Charge! Charge! Charge!' to 'What now?' and even panic has begun.
Why are players of altcoins suffering so badly this round?

1️⃣
The rotation of funds is too fast; retail investors have become the bag holders?
After Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $120,000, it started to consolidate. Funds briefly flowed into altcoins, but many projects have no real value, skyrocketing and then plummeting instantly! For example, meme coins like PUMP and HYPE, where the community wildly hypes for a double, end up dropping 30%-50% in just a day or two, trapping those who bought at the peak!

2️⃣
High leverage on contracts leads to a double whammy of liquidation + panic selling?
Altcoin volatility is much greater than BTC. Leverage players can get liquidated with just one shake!
At the end of June, there was an altcoin that rose 60% in one day and dropped 20% the next day, causing contract players to be liquidated and spot players to panic sell, ending up selling at the bottom price.

3️⃣
Many small-cap altcoins have extremely poor trading depth; market makers pump and attract retail investors, then instantly dump, leaving no escape. What’s more frustrating is that some project teams sell off during positive news (like airdrops or partnership announcements), causing the coin price to drop instead of rise. The tricks are too deep!

4️⃣
BTC is draining liquidity; altcoins have no money to rise?
Recently, Bitcoin ETF funds have been flowing in, BTC's market cap percentage has rebounded, and altcoin funds have been withdrawn, leading to overall weak performance...

Those who have been trapped this round are mostly due to chasing highs + high leverage + choosing the wrong coins. The short-term market sentiment is weak, but the bull market isn't over yet; it all depends on whether BTC can stabilize.

Finally, remember:
Mainstream coins → You can buy the dip, wait for the next wave!
Shitcoins → Run when there’s a rebound, don’t linger!
High leverage contracts → Stay away! Liquidation is 100 times worse than being trapped!
The market will always reward the patient, but the premise is—don’t waste time and money on junk coins!

It always needs to settle down for a few days,
the market has been rising continuously,
everyone can easily become anxious.
BTC has once again entered the normal fluctuation range.
Mainstream altcoins,
will have to look at BTC's movements again.
If it doesn't break the new high,
the chance for altcoins to reach new highs is very small.
For the spot bought at the bottom yesterday, just hold on to it.
All rises
are suddenly initiated.
Look at yesterday's K-line and trading volume.
BTC has large funds supporting it,
Wall Street traders won't let it drop too much at this time, as interest rates are about to be lowered in September.

Did some eth

The coins closely related to Ethereum are ens, uni, and eth. As Ethereum becomes stronger, the coins closely related to Ethereum have the opportunity to perform well.

eth has dropped significantly, in the bottom area, strong community consensus, and a lot of potential.

Virtual aixbt wld lpt
Ether has quickly returned to 3800
But many altcoins are still down over 10%
It feels like Ether still hasn't fully corrected this time
Pulling from 2300 to 3800 definitely needs a deeper correction
Next time it will directly reach this year's previous high of 4100

On-Chain Hotspot Diary———

$Bonkyo, said there will still be opportunities to get in around 5m in batches, as long as the wind for NFTs is still blowing, this type of narrative will continue

$IMAGINE, previously mentioned it would stay flat around 4m, continue to pay attention

$KORI, second chance, 27M should still go back to touch 50M

$WOM, 500K, the daily line is very flat, several early whale addresses holding are USELESS

The few forms that Bonk makes big money from

1. MEME that can stay flat from June to early July, the narrative aligns with the adjustment, basically has more than 10 times now

2. Hotspot quick access, those who did not get in on time generally have a second chance

3. From now on, those that can stay flat on the daily line, with hotter narratives, basically have further upward potential

The flat trading strategy is extremely appealing; if you want to know how appealing, just try it out for yourself.