甜梦说币

老美有多割裂，#ETH 就有多割裂

川普的“降息太晚论”和鲍威尔的“美联储独立”论，已经让老美出现了严重政治割裂

E子大跌直接来源是“神奇”的非农修正数据，非农是衡量就业市场的重要指标，也是美联储是否降息唯二的关键因素，但是5月和6月的非农合计从29.1下修到3.1万

按这个就业的惨淡情况，美联储9月降息预期从45%涨到了75%，但是数据的大幅度修正被认为“造假+政治站队”，川普-美联储-劳工部都草台班子而已

对于风险资产，降息预期并不能完全消化掉“不确定性”带来的隐患，#ETH 大户多空严重分歧，大致的情况是：看空巨鲸卖的很坚决，多军还在犹犹豫豫的找底

eth: This morning directly broke through 3500 to 3428, indicating that the main force has given up resistance here. The next support point below is 3380, and 3380-3440 is a fluctuation zone; a drop to this area will begin to slow down.

If we take 2474 as the starting point of the large upward wave in the past two weeks, 3380 is also the 0.382 retracement level.

Today, a rebound near 3520 (which just reached 3521) allows for another short position, with a take profit at 3380-3336. At that time, reopening a position will not pursue shorting. Today's maximum pressure is 3588, where a stop loss is sufficient.

Tonight the entire market plummeted, mainly due to this: previously released positive data was suddenly violently revised by the authorities.

For example, May's non-farm payrolls added 144,000 jobs, which was revised down to only 19,000.
June's non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, which was revised down to only 14,000.

This directly collapsed the entire market; no earnings reports mattered.

It's comparable to a project party sending a message saying they will spend 10 million to buy back and pump the price, only to tell you they are putting out 500 U.

Let's talk about $eth>>

① If the current rebound fails and does not rise above the 3570 level, there is still a significant chance for a rebound. However, this rebound may only be a small one, and the extent of the rebound should not be large; it depends on whether you want to seize the opportunity. The effective rebound should occur around the 3530 level.

② Where will this round of major adjustment go? What can we see? There are two positions, and I am not sure which one it will be. One is around the 3520 level. The other is around the 3460 level. I won’t go too deep. Also, note that the 3460 level is exactly where Ethereum has a recent gap in CME futures. The next major gap is around the 3080 level; I personally believe that even if we consider this position, it will take several months of grinding to reach it, so do not fantasize about it in the short term.

③ If we are currently in a rebound, breaking through the 3650 level will see the 3690 level. At that time, the effective pressure range will be [3690-3700]. If the price encounters resistance and falls back at the 3650 level, then it will look down to the 3570 level.

ASR-VC Indicator 4h Channel Status Update:

Finally, after a period of mid-band fluctuations, the 4h line tested the lower cyan line of the fluctuation channel due to tariff news and the influence of the US stock market;

As the spot premium gradually increased during this pullback, I have become more optimistic about the market, especially since this pullback has relatively low volume compared to the left side.

Therefore, in the short term, we can expect the price to oscillate at low levels for some time before rebounding again...

However, many people have mentioned a CME gap below; adhering to the principle of believing in such signals, even if I see a rebound here, I will still be cautious about the gap-filling behavior, as that would allow the price to test the blue average support band.

Overall, the market in the past two weeks has followed a standard script of transitioning from a trend market to a fluctuation market. Since BTC's price broke below the ASR channel's yellow line and the mid-band, this rhythm has essentially been established.

The probability of continuing to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the next month is quite high, so it is advisable to focus more on swings and less on trends.

The big pancake has once again staged a midnight scare. Last night it surged to around 119,000, but started a free fall in the early morning, dropping as low as 114,300, a correction of nearly 4,400 points, quite thrilling.

It has now just arrived at the support area at the lower edge of the 2-hour channel. At this position, bulls and bears are in a standoff, and it's expected that another push could lead to a rebound of 2-3k.

The market changes rapidly, but the rhythm remains clear. Make a good trading plan, don't be greedy or anxious, we fight side by side and won't get lost.

This market has once again proven that altcoins are not worth holding long-term.

I wonder how many people have been caught in this wave?

At the same time, the continuous new highs in open interest are a change brought about by the market's low volatility, as everyone hopes to achieve higher returns through leverage.

Is there still an altcoin season? This is a recurring topic in this round. From the current market perspective, it seems that only when liquidity truly begins to increase will the results improve; at other times, liquidity will not be very good.

Bitcoin four-hour wedge adjustment, there may be opportunities for breakthroughs in trading later. Those doing short-term trading can keep an eye on this!

In addition, the overall market sentiment remains optimistic. If you have the capital for spot trading, you can gradually buy on dips. The main recommendations are some large market cap tokens: BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, SUI, SOL, PEPE, PENGU, etc.

8.1 Coinbase Leads the Crypto Market Down
1. Coinbase's Q2 report did not meet expectations, leading to an 8% decline after hours
2. BTC fell below 116,500 for the first time yesterday but failed to recover, which is a very dangerous signal for short-term market conditions, indicating that the long-standing balance between bulls and bears has been broken, leaning towards a bearish trend. If BTC cannot return to 118,000, it will face a deeper correction
3. The medium to long-term trend of ETH remains healthy, and it will also follow BTC's correction in the short term

The overall outlook for ETH is definitely bullish. The support at 3660 is quite good, and I bought some back.

Actually, I don't want to short; it's just that the momentum around 3850 is too damn weak. Who knew there would be a big rally?

Why does Ethereum jump 200 points up and down? Just because Powell was trampled by Trump and said a few tough words? Wrong, it's emotions! Emotions! It's still damn emotions!

At this point for ETH, whether it breaks up to 4000 or tests down to 3600, there's a great possibility. Retail investors have a serious "herd effect," but are you sure you want to follow the retail investors?

In recent waves of declines, only $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB have managed to recover, which basically corresponds to the current top-tier tokens for ETFs/strategic reserves.

The remaining mainstream ones are still slightly weaker; although $DOGE, $XRP, and others performed well for a while, they have recently shown some weakness, still suffering from the lack of large-scale strategic reserves/ETFs.

The market has entered a phase of falling at night and rising during the day. The trends over the past two days have been quite similar; as soon as U.S. stock market hours begin, the market starts to crash, and the premium of CB over BN has also disappeared. There hasn't been much capital flowing into ETFs these past few days. Bitcoin has seen a net inflow of tens of millions every day, while Ethereum had an inflow of only 5.8 million last night, which almost reflects that U.S. institutions' interest in crypto is waning.

Of course, this is understandable, as there have been too many macro events this week, and institutions need to avoid the limelight. Moreover, Bitcoin and Ethereum haven't really dropped much; any slight decline has quickly rebounded, especially with Asian funds providing support. However, altcoins have suffered significantly, with many returning to historical low ranges. When viewed on a weekly chart, only mainstream altcoins—such as those with ETFs, treasury projects, or collaborations with Grayscale, WLFI, and other legitimate projects—have managed to establish a bottom. The old coins on CEX are stagnant, showing no signs of entering a bull market. Even on the weekly chart, the bottom has not been confirmed, which reflects the current market's polarized situation. As long as institutions do not buy, the market is bound to experience a volatile correction, leading to a collective crash in altcoins, and liquidity has also dried up.

Pepe, let's talk purely about the technical aspects of this coin. I know it very well, being the closest to it. I bet on Pepe in the last round; during the market at the end of last year, ETH went from 2400 to 4000, but Pepe didn't rise. So how did Pepe eventually rise? It was through news from RobinhoodApp that the price was finally pushed up, catching up with the increase.

Now, $ETH is in a continuous bull market again, while Pepe remains stagnant like a tortoise. Many people say Pepe won't come back; perhaps Pepe is about to return, but no one knows how this time 😂. Buying Pepe above the 10th floor is a gamble on beta; it could double or get cut in half. Of course, $PEPE will still likely be slow this time; if you can endure, you’ll make money; if you can't, you’ll exit. Do your own research (DYOR).

In this round of the bull market, the driving forces behind Bitcoin's continued rise are
1. Bitcoin halving effect
2. Approval of Bitcoin spot ETF
3. The United States has passed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act
4. The rise of corporate strategic reserves, with listed companies buying Bitcoin
5. The explosion of stablecoins, with countries exploring stablecoins, injecting new vitality into Bitcoin

Perhaps in this round of the bull market, Bitcoin will break the four-year bull market cycle and make the bull market more enduring.

Taking $ONDO as an example to discuss the three-sell structure and Chan Theory's 'Market Trends Must Be Perfect', many people will think that the decline has stopped here at the 200ma on the 4-hour level. If we draw the context, this is just the end of the second sell, and a third sell after a rebound would be in line with 'Market Trends Must Be Perfect'.
Why am I so sure there will be a third sell? The 4-hour chart shows no bottom divergence, and another test is needed for it to be a true 4-hour bottoming structure. Of course, taking a 30-minute rebound trade is not a problem.
The subsequent market trend projection is as shown in the picture, with about 80% probability; let's take a gamble, and if I lose, I’ll post a sexy photo.
When learning Chan Theory, don't just memorize; always consider the comprehensive context.

Looking at the Essence Beyond the Phenomenon
When trading a coin, whether going long or short, the underlying logic is underestimation or overestimation.
Everything must start from this perspective.
If the only advantage of a coin is whether it is listed on Binance or UP, rather than the project's fundamentals, then its outcome will certainly be poor; the hotter it gets, the worse its fate.
This is why there is a law that what gets hot must die; because if everyone is optimistic about something, your optimism is meaningless.
You must focus on areas that others do not understand.
Recently, there was an ASP that pre-traded around 0.75, with Binance's investment and a decent project, yet it had a pre-trade FDV of 750 million.
Unfortunately, without a contract, I would have shorted it fiercely. I personally shorted at 0.9 pre-trade; there was not much trading on Whales, or perhaps I should have set it at 0.7 to sell.
Many people asked me how I felt about this project, and I thought it was good,
Then they asked if I bought it, and I said no, because it was too hot; I don’t trade what everyone is optimistic about.
In summary, a law:
The direction everyone is optimistic about is likely wrong,
All optimistic expectations can be shorted,
Why? Even the dogs on the street know when to go for contracts or spot trading,
You say expectations are met, will it drop?
Expectations are not met, will it drop?

Nema Project Review: The first AI project of JUP platform
The project background is the same dev worm from last year, which old players should know, reached a market value of 100 million at its peak. Let's see if we can catch 1.5M-1M recently. The market has been very slow lately, and after the first wave, it will take at least ten days to half a month to wash, so there will be opportunities to get on board.

On July 3rd, ETH was still at 2592, and by the end of the month, it peaked at 3960, which is hardly trustworthy. This is the trend. Similarly, if ETH breaks 4000 and stays between 4066-4158, if the pullback does not drop below the 3880-3820 range, then it can basically be boldly bought again for more than 800 points.

The spike received at 3672 at 3 AM will not be reachable again no matter how much it pulls back later. Although the daily double line has a bit of a dead cross, the downward momentum is not strong; just enter long or add positions according to the normal pullback rhythm. Shorting needs to be a bit sneaky; if you want to take more profit, it could quickly turn into a profit loss, which can mess with your mindset. Make money, focus on the key points.

Tomorrow is non-farm, I'll add a low long position or replenish my holdings, and just hold on without moving. The latest will be after 8.4 to start the next round of rally. Before the rally, make sure you are on the bus; being slow these two days is actually fast, don't get shaken off the bus. Some people like to go long and short alternately, wanting to profit from both ends every day; for such operations, you must keep an eye on it and be defensive. At the tail end, short positions can easily get stuck at the starting point of a rise; being stuck means a long time, for example, two weeks ago when it retraced to 2930. That night I said this was the last time to retrace below 3000 and clearly mentioned that the ranges of 3440-3580 and 3660-3880 are the most suitable for entering short positions.

I call July the month of wealth; today I can confirm that August is Wealth Month 2.0. It is expected that there will be a correction from late August to September, and I estimate that BTC will peak around 135000 before it starts to drop, and we will discuss the specifics then.