甜梦说币

Dark Trend
After the last 4-hour line failed to break through 40m, the outlook has started to look pessimistic. I took profits at 28m and assessed the upcoming situation based on news.
Due to the 4-hour line's failure to break through 40m, the next trend will test the 13-20m range, as there is substantial support in this area, including positions for large investors and market makers (which can be captured by browsing historical trading records, and also can be judged through K-line experience and intuitive feelings).
I no longer suggest that everyone be led by the nose; have your own judgment. Everyone knows that I am publishing this article with a certain delay; for those who are slightly more conservative, the position cost is in the 24-26 range, and I hope to provide some reference value for friends with costs in this range.

目前链上的打狗环境处于一个混沌的早期阶段，金狗有早期倍数也还行，真正的大金很少，枯坐一天一合计不怎么赚钱。

所谓天下大势，汾酒必喝，喝酒必汾（笑，现在各种新台子新概念乱飞，散户注意力和流量都很分散，一定会出现一个一拳超人，双拳打破链上家徒四壁，有背书有资金有好叙事，所以多学多看保持敏感，比胡乱出手下注更加重要。

那么现在的市场热点在哪里，毫无疑问是 币安alpha积分 刷量，由于空投的白嫖属性和安全性，吸引了各方游资巨佬，工作室，懂链上的散户，都乐意放点钱进来，足量的流动性和处于高位的大饼必然会带来庄家的蠢蠢欲动。

中心主旨就俩：
1.合约交易量是现货交易量的数倍
2.庄家有明显的吸筹控筹行为
3.满足1.2后找标准结构

我把目光放给了几个币，这里捡俩 $FHE $BR ，其中 $FHE 现货交易量4.6M，合约15M
$BR 合约交易量5M，现货只有可怜的50万均有标准三角收敛，简单的结构，拉盘的轻松程度可见一斑，
感谢关注~

比特币目前的位置已经是前期套牢盘的区间，这个区间套住了大量的筹码，这个套牢区域不是说想要突破就能突破的，除非有大利好去刺激，或者比特币做了充足的调整蓄积能量才有可能突破。
比特币也反弹到接近斐波那契0.618的位置，近期向上冲击十万的概率并不大，加上明天就是迪拜token2049大会，比特币会不会继续逢会必跌？这里短线也要防守一波。
另外一个重要的参考点是120日均线，120日均线目前是91700，短期处于120日均线之上，短线不会太差，但是一旦跌破120日均线，可能会引发恐慌性的抛售。
对于比特币而言，短期越往上涨越要去做分批的止盈，而不是追涨，追涨是没有性价比的。当比特币震荡的时候，资金会流向山寨，多关注山寨。一旦比特币跌破120日均线，一定要做一定的减仓避险动作。

Still full of confidence in RFC, the position hasn't changed, and has even increased a bit

We can consider 2M to 130M as the first wave

After the first wave ends, a pullback to 25-30M

Then after the second wave starts, ATH should be able to reach 300-400M

If there is a strong player, this K is correct

Believe in the power of belief, still optimistic about RFC, it’s not that it won’t rise, it’s just that the time hasn’t come

You cannot use last year's mindset to trade this year's tokens

Last year's fast trading had too many, very few could stabilize, RFC has the potential to surpass PEPE or even SHIB (of course, this is just a boast for now)

Hold my bag well, waiting for the new moon and sun to arrive

Currently, a very bad situation has formed, we have bearish MBS being broken through

At the same time, a complete large-scale 4H bearish head and shoulders pattern has formed

These are all very ominous signals; the appearance of such a topping signal on the 4H is very dangerous, as we usually use the 4H to observe and decide on mid-term trends

There is no doubt that, whether in the short term or mid-term, we need to look for key areas to find short-selling strategies

However, the overall trend is still bullish, so we need to be extra cautious

My thought is that I might engage in short-term scalping trades in key areas, as this may make it easier to secure my profits without losing principal, keeping my account in growth.

Regular investment in short positions, as the name suggests, involves splitting the total amount you want to invest in short positions into 10 to 100 parts. Since you cannot precisely predict the price peak, you should only select small positions at minor price highs;

Don't say you have the ability to judge the peak, unless you claim to be better than Guilin in short-term trading～

Then comes the long process of regular investment until the position is fully opened. There is a requirement for this process: limit the frequency of opening positions. You cannot open a position just because you see a peak on the 1-minute chart, but rather at least at the 1-hour level or higher;

Why limit the period and frequency? Because the price might not peak in this range, and there could be another peak in the next and the one after that;

Thus, limiting the period and frequency can ensure that position growth is limited within a range. The benefit of limited position growth is that even if the price increases, there is still significant room to raise the average price;

Most of BTC's trend markets do not exceed 100 days, so as long as you grasp this periodic pattern and control the liquidation price of your position (which is controlled to 500,000 USD in Guilin), you can engage in market cycle arbitrage;

In simple terms, this strategy looks somewhat like a fixed amount of Martingale, but in fact, the risk is much smaller than Martingale, and the risk-reward ratio is larger, because it does not close the position at the first segment of price decline, allowing for long-term holding;

The downside is that the potential profit is relatively small, especially with small positions. If you have 100,000 USD to invest, the profit could indeed be considerable, especially with the yield from funding rates. However, if you have less than 10,000 USD, then you can only take it slow...

Finally, there is the potential risk. The risk here is not liquidation risk, but rather the loss of opportunity cost and time cost...

For example, during the last bull market, a trader I followed opened a super large short position using this method and rode the entire bull market...

Although he eventually broke even in the bear market and made a decent profit, the problem is, what if this capital had been used to go long? Or to participate in DeFi, the potential returns could have been at least 100 times different... Of course, the risks would also be much higher;

So essentially, the logic of regular investment in short positions is to significantly reduce loss risk by lowering expected returns, suitable for large funds, but not very friendly to small funds;

After pondering for a day about where the market will go next, I still can't quite figure it out. There are quite a few people shorting right now, and logically, I should continue to go long. However, the macro uncertainty makes it difficult for me to make the decision to go long. So let's bring out the long-lost 'carving the boat to seek the sword' method.

Currently, the market is somewhat resembling the movement around August 13, 2021. During that time, the daily line dipped six times before being suppressed by the MA230 daily line. After breaking through, it stabilized above the MA140 line, and then completed a correction gradually stabilizing between the MA120 and MA250, eventually reaching new highs.

If this time it also follows this pattern, we need to pay attention to these positions:
MA120: 91650 MA140: 92700 MA230: 85800 MA250: 83700

So if we follow this liquidation chart and first go up to 965 and then down to 91 or 87, it might be a better short-term strategy.

However, if we skip the short-term intraday operations, this week we need to closely observe the non-farm payrolls and PCE data, after all, this is the first macro data since the trade war, which will directly guide market sentiment and expectations. If the data is very poor, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates, then the final drop may be coming.

From the daily chart perspective, (1) the overall bullish trend is still present, (2) the previous K-line and moving average pattern pressure also remains. (3) The price is currently on the sixth day after breaking through various levels of moving average resistance, indicating that we are at the end of the adjustment period.

In other words, the short-term structure is strong, with upward momentum (though there will be divergences during the process), but the previous structural pressure will also limit the extent of the initial upward movement. Overall, there is a certain probability of a rise followed by a fall. Chasing highs during the rally is irrational, but buying on dips after a correction is feasible.

From the 1H to 4H chart perspective, the upward movement at this position is similar to last Friday, where a slight rise will enter the previous pattern resistance, and new highs are likely to diverge, making it difficult for the upward trend to sustain. Conversely, the short-term bullish structure being formed is complete, supporting a rebound after refreshing the low points.

From the 15-minute to 30-minute chart perspective, the price has broken below the MA250 of this cycle over the weekend, and the MA250 is gradually flattening and bending down. Here, the possibility of continuing to consolidate cannot be ruled out, but one must be cautious of the risk of a sharp drop if the price breaks below the 15-minute MA250 again (the sharp drop after breaking the 15-minute level corresponds to a buying point after refreshing the low on the 4H level).

Combining the above various level trends, the daily bullish trend is still present, and there is room for a rebound after a pullback, but during the upward process, structural pressure is evident and requires significant capital to push it forward. Technically, it is difficult to judge, so specific aggressive trading strategies must be executed.

Aggressive trading: enter at the current price 94714~92388, stop loss 91666 (1H entity), or after reaching short-term support and then rebounding, take profit at 97934/101933 (small position entry, conservative traders need not act).

Short-term resistance 96194~98485 (no breakout), short-term support 91339~89360 (1:2, watch closely for quick entry and exit, can be split), second support 86688~84123 (watch closely for quick entry and exit).

BTC View: The market always moves while we are asleep; this rhythm is truly sleepless! Or it turns day into night, forcing people to sleep during the day and often wake up at night to watch the market. If this is the case, it can indeed be quite distressing. The price of Bitcoin broke through the level of 93545 with substantial volume, closing above 93545, and stop-loss if it breaks. If it drops below 92825 with volume and fails to recover, short on the right side, and pay attention to volume changes while setting a stop-loss. If it falls to 92568 and shows a false breakdown, recover with a light long position; if it breaks below 91880, stop-loss, and don't go long if it cannot recover.

Bitcoin also retraced, precisely touching the Fibonacci 78.6% level on the hourly chart around 92511. I hope this level can hold, and we see a decent night. Bitcoin needs to break through 93618 on the hourly level to look upwards towards 94417-94944; if it cannot break through, Bitcoin won't rise. Pay attention to 95160 for a 2B false breakout, and consider shorting with a light position; stop-loss at the previous high if it stabilizes.

For native players: Long at 91627, must stop-loss if it breaks below 91000. Resistance above at 94017-94560-95284, support below at 93003-92568-91627. On the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 92930 and cannot recover quickly, look at 91645-90637, and a pullback is coming.

$ETH Thought: For Ethereum, a breakout with volume above 1772, long on the right side, and set a stop-loss. If it drops below 1760 with volume, short on the right side, and set a stop-loss. If it retraces to 1746, confirm effective support with multiple long positions, and stop-loss if it breaks below 1711. On the hourly level for Ethereum, a breakout above 1783 must stabilize before looking upwards at 1808-1840; Ethereum is definitely a good player. Above Ethereum, pay attention to 1838 for a short position, stop-loss at 1857. Upstream orders: Long at 1710, stop-loss if it breaks below 1681.

Resistance above at 1783-1803-1837, support below at 1756-1737-1712. On the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 1755, look down to 1720-1663. A pullback is acceptable, but it must not damage the trend; once the trend is broken, it will take a long time to repair.

VIRTUAL, AIXBT, TURBO, WLD, LPT, SHELL, CGPT, COOKIE, NIL, IO, ARKM
TAO…
Too much to send
All the drops from Sunday and this morning have returned
Choose a few you are optimistic about to invest heavily
Try to prioritize the leaders, virtual has reached a new high
The current AI is just like the metaverse in 2021
At that time sand mana axs magic…
External funds must have a super large entrance to enter web3
And now AI is undoubtedly that
Although meme is also good, but after all, the AI story is easier to tell
Let's invest heavily in AI together and reach the other shore together.

Regarding altcoins, the following assets show buying opportunities on the 4-hour level:
·ENA: The price range of $0.32 to $0.33 is an ideal entry point, with a good rhythm.
·STX: Achieved good returns last week; if it retraces to the vacuum area of $0.75 to $0.80, it can be bought again.
·SUI: Despite a large unlock this week, the price shows strong performance, and the bearish sentiment may have been digested. Strong support is found in the range of $3.35 to $3.40, where buying can be considered, exhibiting the characteristic of 'the strong getting stronger'.
·TAO: If it retraces to the downward trend line around $340, buying can be considered.
·ONDO: The current price is close to the vacuum area of $0.88 to $0.90, which is an ideal buying point.
·AXS: The gaming chain sector has shown lackluster performance in this cycle, but there is strong support at $2.40; if it touches this level again, short-term buying can be considered.
·TRUMP: Although the fundamentals are not promising, there is potential for short-term swings. $12 serves as strong support along the central axis, and around $13.50, a risky short buy can also be considered.

The most important thing about playing with low market cap tokens is to hold on; only by holding can you achieve great results.

The earliest Shiba Inu, Dogecoin, and Baby Doge had the same market cap as $5.

The subsequent situation is known to everyone!!

Shiba Inu reached a maximum market cap of 15 billion, with a rise of 1.5 million times, turning 5u into 7.5 million u.

Dogecoin reached a maximum market cap of 20 billion, with a rise of 2 million times, turning 5u into 10 million u.

Baby Doge reached a maximum market cap of 3 billion, with a rise of 100,000 times, turning 5u into 500,000 u.

5u War God applies for battle; with 5u you won't lose or be deceived, but you can buy a chance to turn things around.

DWTt4JWiS7eK7UFVeTje7iVD65HFVZpWsgTeUQqGpump

A wave of token unlocks is coming within a week!
The following tokens will have large unlocks!
Among them, SUI will unlock tokens worth $267 million.
ZETA will unlock 5.8% of its circulating supply this week,

Number of tokens unlocked this time: 45.29 million
Amount unlocked this time: approximately $11.73 million
SUI number of tokens unlocked this time: 77.34 million
Amount unlocked this time: approximately $267 million

"Sui is the earliest project in the Meta ecosystem's public chain, developed by the Mysten Labs team. Sui aims to create an environmentally friendly, low-cost, high-throughput, low-latency permissionless blockchain. Compared to traditional blockchains, the most critical innovation of Sui lies in its data model and transaction processing channel.

The SUI fast unlocking process is halfway through, with the current circulation at 33%,
Unlocks include community reserves of 42.63 million ($14.8 million), Series B financing of 19.32 million ($6.704 million),
Early contributors of 9.98 million ($3.462 million),
Mysten Labs treasury of 2.07 million ($718,000)

Weekend liquidity is still very low, with no substantial changes, which also reflects the trading willingness of real investors, and the turnover rate is very low.

Support between $93,000 and $98,000 remains very solid, but this area is also mixed with some short-term investors and some passive long-term holders, so at this position, I still believe it is both a concentrated area of chips providing on-chain support and a significant resistance area at present.

This week, especially for those using high leverage, be sure to pay attention to key time points and try not to go against the trend.

The most interesting thing about this cycle: MEME has been completely deconstructed by meme coins dressed in 'meme'.

Originally, MEME was a deconstruction, rebellion, and satire of traditional projects, possessing a non-mainstream energy that requires cultural sedimentation and large-scale community resonance, with a 'unique' temperament.

In fact, true MEMEs are rarer than good projects.

However, what’s interesting in this cycle is that the overwhelming influx of 'meme' has directly dismantled the meaning of MEME. Ultimately, the deconstruction process has led to the deconstruction of the deconstructors themselves. The extreme PvP has driven novel occurrences, which is the most interesting and bizarre aspect of this cycle.

$SOL Guys, the good news is that it has not yet completed a breakthrough on MBS, successfully reclaiming this position of 146

But the bad news is that it might form a bearish reversal structure of a head and shoulders

One strong piece of evidence is that the volume-price relationship has diverged, you know, this is a bad signal for bulls, especially since trading volume is almost the only non-lagging indicator

Of course, if it really forms a bullish structure of a head and shoulders, then it may test the demand zone below.

This would bring us to the secondary entry position I expect, and without a doubt, this would be a very good entry signal for me.

If you want to receive our entry strategy sharing, feel free to join us

In recent days, I've been frequently engaging in PvP in low market cap Memes, and the trading methods have slowly started to become extreme. Whenever I see the market maker dumping, my mind immediately thinks about taking profits quickly.

So I've decided to play less with low market cap Memes (below 200k), and aim to catch some opportunities in the range of 200k–800k > 2m–8m, or 2m–8m > 20m–80m. However, the latter opportunities are indeed rarer, while the former will be more frequent, with good chances appearing several times a day on average.

Anyway, during this period, let's pay more attention to on-chain activities; opportunities should become more abundant. The altcoin market has already started to warm up. If this launch truly marks the arrival of altcoin season, then the on-chain space will surely flourish.

Keep up the momentum, be brave in trial and error,
Continue research, always be present,
Let's work hard together 💪💪💪💪

Siren today defied the trend and broke through another range, with 43 breaking into the first range. It is currently breaking through 0.07, and the rest is steadily pushing towards 10. Continuing with the original plan to withdraw the principal at 0.1, and the remaining profits will be taken after a significant departure from the range and a rapid surge before starting to take profits.