学良的交易日记
本人学良 全网同名。此号为新号。八年金融分析师
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After the big cake broke 8w9, there were more voices in the market that did not get on the train, did not know how to start, and missed the opportunity again! In my opinion, the real warriors in the currency circle cannot be defeated by the halving, liquidation, and zeroing, but missing the opportunity can be missed. Missing the opportunity will infinitely magnify the fomo emotion, make you lose your mind, and appear various trading taboos, chase high at the top of the mountain, frequently change positions, so that the transaction is constantly deformed, and finally leave only one sentence: tmd! ! Things are in people's hands, and what is important is people, not things. Since we are here to make money in the currency circle, then all our actions should be practiced for the result of making money. How to learn and where to learn?
Those who want to lay out together and harvest the dealer together can come to me! There are market strategy analysis and high-quality coin recommendations every day. Coins with good news will also be recommended, and they will be ambushed in advance. There are also live market analysis for students from time to time! If you have any questions, you can also consult me directly and provide the best answers!
Welcome to chat with me on VX and join us →→BQBX2024 BQPX2024
#BinanceBlockchainWeek #狗狗币创数月新高 #你问我答 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？ #比特币布林带收窄至低水平 $BTC
Those who want to lay out together and harvest the dealer together can come to me! There are market strategy analysis and high-quality coin recommendations every day. Coins with good news will also be recommended, and they will be ambushed in advance. There are also live market analysis for students from time to time! If you have any questions, you can also consult me directly and provide the best answers!
Welcome to chat with me on VX and join us →→BQBX2024 BQPX2024
#BinanceBlockchainWeek #狗狗币创数月新高 #你问我答 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？ #比特币布林带收窄至低水平 $BTC
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Bitcoin peaked and fell back? The altcoin season has begun! 100x explosive potential coins that should be bought at the bottom of the decline!
Bitcoin finally stopped soaring, adjusted around 89k, and rushed to the 9-digit mark again overnight, and the altcoin also showed signs of stopping the decline. Many fans asked Bitcoin to adjust the brakes, when will the altcoin take off? Let's look at a few scenarios: Assuming that Bitcoin has a callback: the callback range is between 77,000→87,000 (already reached). 1. Bitcoin adjusts horizontally, constantly fluctuates to hit small highs, repairs indicators, the MEME season continues, funds switch between various MEME tracks, and the second-level old altcoins continue to stay at home;
Second, the depth of Bitcoin adjustment will be greater, MEME will pull back, and secondary altcoins will also suffer, and then the next round of track rotation will begin;
Second, the depth of Bitcoin adjustment will be greater, MEME will pull back, and secondary altcoins will also suffer, and then the next round of track rotation will begin;
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Bitcoin hits 90,000 and breaks, should we go long or short? "Dog market" takes off! Dogecoin targets 1U, PUNT becomes the SHIB of this round!
Overnight, BTC once retreated from nearly $90,000 to 84k. BTC seemed to have "collapsed" again. A large number of chips suddenly appeared, just like pouring cold water on this mad bull, and the market calmed down a little. From around 3 pm, it reached a high of $89,970 (very close to $90,000), and then was directly suppressed to below $86k, breaking through the four barriers of 89k, 88k, 87k, and 86k. However, BTC opened at 84k during the day, so the overall upward trend remained. But those copycat coins were not so lucky. After the situation turned bad, they all collapsed and turned to decline.
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Little Tips for Breaking Free from Losses that Veteran Investors Should Not Miss
In the ever-changing investment market, breaking free from losses has always been an unavoidable and troubling issue for investors. I have had the fortune of participating in two grand bull markets, gaining a wealth of valuable experience, and I would like to share some practical methods for breaking free from losses.
When investors are trapped at a high price level, there are two feasible strategies. The first is to remain calm and patient, closely monitoring market dynamics and waiting for rebound signals. Once the market rebounds, it is essential to seize the opportunity to exit promptly, without being greedy, in order to avoid missing out. The second strategy is to wisely sell part of the assets when the price is in a high range, akin to 'dieting' the investment portfolio, thereby reducing positions and minimizing losses. It is important to note that if the market situation suddenly changes drastically and an unexpected reversal occurs, investors must make quick decisions and stop losses without hesitation. At this time, it may also be considered to take counter positions to try to recover losses, such as shorting during a market downtrend, but this requires investors to have a relatively accurate judgment of the market and sufficient experience.
When investors are trapped at a high price level, there are two feasible strategies. The first is to remain calm and patient, closely monitoring market dynamics and waiting for rebound signals. Once the market rebounds, it is essential to seize the opportunity to exit promptly, without being greedy, in order to avoid missing out. The second strategy is to wisely sell part of the assets when the price is in a high range, akin to 'dieting' the investment portfolio, thereby reducing positions and minimizing losses. It is important to note that if the market situation suddenly changes drastically and an unexpected reversal occurs, investors must make quick decisions and stop losses without hesitation. At this time, it may also be considered to take counter positions to try to recover losses, such as shorting during a market downtrend, but this requires investors to have a relatively accurate judgment of the market and sufficient experience.
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"A Guide to Cryptocurrency Trading Unwinding Strategies: Mastering Techniques to Turn Passive into Active"
1. Flexible handling based on position depth
1. Investors who are only slightly trapped: In the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, when investors are only slightly trapped, they need to keenly capture every fluctuation in the market. Because in this case, there is a certain opportunity to get out of the trap. The short-term rebound of the market is like the dawn in the darkness, and investors can seize such opportunities to get out of the trap. In addition, when the price climbs to a high level, investors can also appropriately reduce their positions. This is like retracting some sails before the storm comes, reducing the possible risks in this way, so that you can have more stability in the stormy waves of the cryptocurrency circle.
1. Investors who are only slightly trapped: In the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, when investors are only slightly trapped, they need to keenly capture every fluctuation in the market. Because in this case, there is a certain opportunity to get out of the trap. The short-term rebound of the market is like the dawn in the darkness, and investors can seize such opportunities to get out of the trap. In addition, when the price climbs to a high level, investors can also appropriately reduce their positions. This is like retracting some sails before the storm comes, reducing the possible risks in this way, so that you can have more stability in the stormy waves of the cryptocurrency circle.
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The big picture is set, Trump elected president? Smart money is coming in, Bitcoin to $100,000! How to operate in the future?
Written before Trump is re-elected as President of the United States:
He has already secured 2 states at the start, with two others in the lead! Trump's momentum is strong! Hopefully, we'll have results today; the market in this environment is too disgusting, and the focus now is on the 6 swing states! Green marked in the picture; currently, Harris is leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump is leading in North Carolina and Georgia!
People in the crypto circle should all support Trump, right? No one would go against their own positions; the market represents everything. Although I think that no matter who is elected, it won't stop the trend of BTC, Trump's election will undoubtedly accelerate this process. Let's go!
He has already secured 2 states at the start, with two others in the lead! Trump's momentum is strong! Hopefully, we'll have results today; the market in this environment is too disgusting, and the focus now is on the 6 swing states! Green marked in the picture; currently, Harris is leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump is leading in North Carolina and Georgia!
People in the crypto circle should all support Trump, right? No one would go against their own positions; the market represents everything. Although I think that no matter who is elected, it won't stop the trend of BTC, Trump's election will undoubtedly accelerate this process. Let's go!
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How the U.S. Election Affects Bitcoin Trends?
Overnight, BTC temporarily retraced to around the 30-day moving average of 66.9k. Bitcoin is unlikely to break through in the next few days, as funds often become conservative during such sensitive moments.
Before the U.S. election, Trump was always leading, but since the end of last month, the U.S. media suddenly began to promote the possibility of a Harris victory. With the media's influence, the market's bets on a Trump victory have diminished.
Now the election results are unclear; in my view, who wins is not important for us. What matters is how it will affect the cryptocurrency market. There are only two outcomes: Trump or Harris.
Before the U.S. election, Trump was always leading, but since the end of last month, the U.S. media suddenly began to promote the possibility of a Harris victory. With the media's influence, the market's bets on a Trump victory have diminished.
Now the election results are unclear; in my view, who wins is not important for us. What matters is how it will affect the cryptocurrency market. There are only two outcomes: Trump or Harris.
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Is Everyone a Chain Emperor? Analysis of Trading Patterns of Chain Emperors
Once you enter the deep sea of meme coins, after 48 hours of on-chain PVP, your consciousness gradually blurs, as if falling from the realm of causal logic into the subconscious realm dominated by uncertainty, rationality is crushed back and forth by the market, and the self becomes small, helpless, and lost, making the whole person feel unwell.
According to Dune panel data, 2zBoK currently launches ~25,000 meme coins daily, successfully listing ~400 on DEX daily, with a launch success rate of ~1.63%. Based on my brief experience, among the ~400 successfully launched meme coins, only a small proportion can break through the $1M market cap threshold. Even if they fortunately break through the $1M market cap, most meme coins' normal lifespan is only 48 hours.
According to Dune panel data, 2zBoK currently launches ~25,000 meme coins daily, successfully listing ~400 on DEX daily, with a launch success rate of ~1.63%. Based on my brief experience, among the ~400 successfully launched meme coins, only a small proportion can break through the $1M market cap threshold. Even if they fortunately break through the $1M market cap, most meme coins' normal lifespan is only 48 hours.
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Bitcoin
Last night, BTC dropped sharply, briefly falling below 68k, but by morning it recovered back to 68k and is pushing towards 69k. Tomorrow is the day of the U.S. elections, and online there is an overwhelming amount of propaganda from both sides, nearly drowning out all other news.
On October 29, 2024, the price of Bitcoin was $73,620, and on November 3, 2024, the price of Bitcoin was $67,478. A nearly 8.3% pullback before the election can be considered a very timely and healthy trend. If it did not pull back and directly broke new highs, regardless of who is elected, it would drop. After the pullback, if Trump is elected, it will shoot straight up to an all-time high~; if Harris is elected, the market will decline in the short term, but the drop will be limited.
On October 29, 2024, the price of Bitcoin was $73,620, and on November 3, 2024, the price of Bitcoin was $67,478. A nearly 8.3% pullback before the election can be considered a very timely and healthy trend. If it did not pull back and directly broke new highs, regardless of who is elected, it would drop. After the pullback, if Trump is elected, it will shoot straight up to an all-time high~; if Harris is elected, the market will decline in the short term, but the drop will be limited.
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Ethereum Transition, Is It Another Opportunity?
Let's discuss Ethereum's transition in detail today. If you like or want to read slowly, you can first like/share or bookmark.
The transition of Ethereum is actually quite obvious:
First, the Ethereum Foundation is not a major player. The Ethereum Foundation, led by Vitalik Buterin, is responsible for Ethereum's development. I checked the information, and in August this year, a mining pool published an article stating that the Ethereum Foundation holds 273,000 ETH, which only accounts for 0.25% of the total supply. Therefore, Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation selling coins at most has an emotional impact, and overall, the sell-off hasn’t caused much pressure.
The transition of Ethereum is actually quite obvious:
First, the Ethereum Foundation is not a major player. The Ethereum Foundation, led by Vitalik Buterin, is responsible for Ethereum's development. I checked the information, and in August this year, a mining pool published an article stating that the Ethereum Foundation holds 273,000 ETH, which only accounts for 0.25% of the total supply. Therefore, Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation selling coins at most has an emotional impact, and overall, the sell-off hasn’t caused much pressure.
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Non-farm payroll shock! Bitcoin plunges to sixty thousand, smart money exits! Is a big fluctuation coming?
Last night's non-farm payroll data stunned the market, with the reported employment numbers being only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from US stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the pattern of 'employment collapse => economic recession => risk assets decline', but instead all rose sharply. Thus, it had to be forcibly explained as 'employment collapse => the Federal Reserve must cut rates => risk assets rise.'
However, before the non-farm payroll data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Such bad data coming out only adds another 10%, making it a certainty of a rate cut. How can the risk of recession be erased? Look closely at the intra-day data. It turns out that a pattern of rising first and then falling has played out.
However, before the non-farm payroll data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Such bad data coming out only adds another 10%, making it a certainty of a rate cut. How can the risk of recession be erased? Look closely at the intra-day data. It turns out that a pattern of rising first and then falling has played out.
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BAN violently rebounded by 60%, with its market value once returning to 40 million USD.
Yesterday, the Solana meme token $BAN violently rebounded by 60%, with its market value once returning to 40 million USD.
The suspected conspiracy group / insider trading address 2giqG…MLGZT finally completed all token sales yesterday. He once held 9.2% of the total tokens and made a profit of 567,000 USD with just 903 USD, achieving a return rate of 627 times.
Let's see how your 'PVP target' gradually completes the wealth transfer.
The main address spent 5.09 SOL (903 USD) to buy 92.2 million $BAN (accounting for 9.2% of the total token supply) during the on-chain phase at http://Pump.fun;
The main address sold 34.1 million BAN during the upward process, profiting 330.2 SOL;
The suspected conspiracy group / insider trading address 2giqG…MLGZT finally completed all token sales yesterday. He once held 9.2% of the total tokens and made a profit of 567,000 USD with just 903 USD, achieving a return rate of 627 times.
Let's see how your 'PVP target' gradually completes the wealth transfer.
The main address spent 5.09 SOL (903 USD) to buy 92.2 million $BAN (accounting for 9.2% of the total token supply) during the on-chain phase at http://Pump.fun;
The main address sold 34.1 million BAN during the upward process, profiting 330.2 SOL;
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Bitcoin has indeed plummeted as expected! Don't panic, if you don't agree, just increase your position.
BTC indeed turned back to take in people as expected. Yesterday (the last spike before the final attack! Bitcoin violently surged and then pulled back, Ethereum followed suit!) I wrote that there would be a violent market with a spike and pullback, and Bitcoin has now dropped below the $70,000 mark, with altcoins also performing a diving competition, likely due to recent Trump trades being hit by election uncertainty.
FOMO when it rises, panic when it falls; if that’s you, I advise you to cash out and leave this market early.
In October, BTC opened at 63.5k and closed at 73.6k, with an increase of over 11%. A slight pullback, can the bears still peak? I can’t understand the bears' G-spot. Actually, why panic? What’s there to panic about? If you’re not convinced, just increase your position!
FOMO when it rises, panic when it falls; if that’s you, I advise you to cash out and leave this market early.
In October, BTC opened at 63.5k and closed at 73.6k, with an increase of over 11%. A slight pullback, can the bears still peak? I can’t understand the bears' G-spot. Actually, why panic? What’s there to panic about? If you’re not convinced, just increase your position!
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How to find a 'Golden Dog'? What characteristics do successful MEME coins have?
Value investing is in vain; betting on MEME to live like royalty is a long-standing slogan in the crypto world. Now that the MEME season has arrived, we need to talk about how to find the golden dog.
Narrative-themed popular meme coins are mainly concentrated in themes such as animals, internet 'memes', events, names, foods, and fruits, which easily resonate emotionally with people. 1. Animal and plant themes have the highest proportion of animals. Ethereum and EVM-compatible chains prefer 'dogs', while on Solana, 'cats' seem to be more popular. As long as they are ugly, unique, and have a meme, they are fine.
Occasionally, fruits or foods can also become popular topics. For example, recently, a certain operation by the vice president of Sotheby's became a hit with BAN. 2. Internet 'memes' mainly revolve around highly real-time news hotspots and popular memes. For instance, during the debates between Biden and Trump, there were many related Biden coins and Trump coins. Previously, someone in the group organized members to rush into dog coins via walkie-talkies, leading to the emergence of Lei Jun coins and walkie-talkie coins.
Narrative-themed popular meme coins are mainly concentrated in themes such as animals, internet 'memes', events, names, foods, and fruits, which easily resonate emotionally with people. 1. Animal and plant themes have the highest proportion of animals. Ethereum and EVM-compatible chains prefer 'dogs', while on Solana, 'cats' seem to be more popular. As long as they are ugly, unique, and have a meme, they are fine.
Occasionally, fruits or foods can also become popular topics. For example, recently, a certain operation by the vice president of Sotheby's became a hit with BAN. 2. Internet 'memes' mainly revolve around highly real-time news hotspots and popular memes. For instance, during the debates between Biden and Trump, there were many related Biden coins and Trump coins. Previously, someone in the group organized members to rush into dog coins via walkie-talkies, leading to the emergence of Lei Jun coins and walkie-talkie coins.
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The last obstacle to the upward movement! Bitcoin violently surges and pulls back, while Ethereum catches up!
Bitcoin (BTC) is making a strong push this time, firmly holding the 72k position without retreating. It remains strong even in small timeframes, able to recover after downward pullbacks. Therefore, the bulls are still very strong. After this consolidation ends, there is a high probability of continued upward movement. Once it rises again, it will need to break the historical high. Additionally, the daily level rising flag pattern has already broken, and it is only a few hundred points away from the historical high. Once it breaks, the space will open up again.
Bitcoin is currently in a breakthrough pattern and has not yet truly crossed the final threshold. Therefore, we need to discuss how to break the previous high today. Let's first study the market maker's method for breaking the ultimate resistance level.
Bitcoin is currently in a breakthrough pattern and has not yet truly crossed the final threshold. Therefore, we need to discuss how to break the previous high today. Let's first study the market maker's method for breaking the ultimate resistance level.
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Eight Years of Experience as a Veteran Investor: Worth a Look
Write down some thoughts from the past few days for newcomers and coin project parties, VCs, and exchanges to see, but all are hard facts. If you like it or want to read it slowly, you can like/share or bookmark it first.
To the project parties: 1. Please put aside your arrogance and take a look at how retail investors and experienced traders are engaging with MEME. In this bull and bear market, many project parties can't even manage their VC token communities well, so there's no need to talk about building good MEME communities. The more arrogant you are, the lower your understanding of the MEME ecosystem will be.
2. The requirements for project parties regarding MEME will be higher; there are no project parties that can manage MEME well without teaching fees. A MEME project party at a large exchange has been trial and erroring with MEME for a month.
To the project parties: 1. Please put aside your arrogance and take a look at how retail investors and experienced traders are engaging with MEME. In this bull and bear market, many project parties can't even manage their VC token communities well, so there's no need to talk about building good MEME communities. The more arrogant you are, the lower your understanding of the MEME ecosystem will be.
2. The requirements for project parties regarding MEME will be higher; there are no project parties that can manage MEME well without teaching fees. A MEME project party at a large exchange has been trial and erroring with MEME for a month.
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Analysis of Bitcoin market trends before and after the U.S. elections.
Bitcoin rises to 70k amidst silence. Over the past two months, not buying Bitcoin and Solana in the secondary market has been difficult for making profits due to wide fluctuations. What’s the plan going forward?
Streamlined version: Hold what you have, if Bitcoin makes a sharp rise to a new high, you can take profit in batches; for those who want to buy, buy a little on small dips and buy more on larger dips, if it continues to hover, buy a position that feels like it won’t miss out on a new high; buying under emotional pressure has a high randomness and can easily lead to losses.
Subjectively, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through and rising significantly is low; it's more about resolving trapped positions or creating small new highs to eat liquidity + induce buying. On November 6 (Beijing time), the election results will be announced. Currently, Trump has a slight lead in polls, and Poly has a significant lead. Bitcoin's movements are reflecting Trump's potential victory in advance. If an unexpected event occurs, such as Harris winning, it would be a black swan for the market.
Streamlined version: Hold what you have, if Bitcoin makes a sharp rise to a new high, you can take profit in batches; for those who want to buy, buy a little on small dips and buy more on larger dips, if it continues to hover, buy a position that feels like it won’t miss out on a new high; buying under emotional pressure has a high randomness and can easily lead to losses.
Subjectively, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through and rising significantly is low; it's more about resolving trapped positions or creating small new highs to eat liquidity + induce buying. On November 6 (Beijing time), the election results will be announced. Currently, Trump has a slight lead in polls, and Poly has a significant lead. Bitcoin's movements are reflecting Trump's potential victory in advance. If an unexpected event occurs, such as Harris winning, it would be a black swan for the market.
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Ice and Fire! BTC skyrocketed, while Ethereum plummeted! How will the market trend ahead?
After BTC broke 68,000 yesterday morning, it retraced and then started to rise, reaching 69,000 by 9 PM before slightly pulling back. In the early hours, it surged again and hit the 70,000 USD mark at 6 AM. After a decline since July 29, exactly three months later, BTC has once again crossed 70,000, aligning with my expectations for BTC from late last month.
BTC is strongly consolidating, strongly rising, and strongly adjusting.
70,000 is an important psychological level. Here, the MACD bars show divergence; divergence can lead to consolidation or a pullback, but shorting before a right-side signal appears is a very low-cost choice. Since 49,000, it has been an upward trend; do not short, do not fight the trend; going with the trend is the way to make money.
BTC is strongly consolidating, strongly rising, and strongly adjusting.
70,000 is an important psychological level. Here, the MACD bars show divergence; divergence can lead to consolidation or a pullback, but shorting before a right-side signal appears is a very low-cost choice. Since 49,000, it has been an upward trend; do not short, do not fight the trend; going with the trend is the way to make money.
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Bitcoin's big showdown this week! MEME only looks at narrative, AI+MEME is the answer to the bull market version!
Currently, BTC is still trying to hit the $70,000 pressure level, but has not been able to break through it effectively. However, from a technical point of view, for example, the EMA20 daily line has risen to around $66,000, indicating that the daily bulls still have a slight advantage, so this week BTC will continue to run at a high level in the $65,000-70,000 range. Only when it breaks out of the $65,000-70,000 range can a new trend be opened.
The recent rise is the market digesting the positive news based on Trump's election expectations in advance. Once it is realized, it will rise and fall in the short term. However, if Trump wins, the medium-term trend is bullish. Otherwise, it will fall unilaterally. There is no need to guess how the market will go, we just need to be prepared to meet it at any time. When the enemy comes, we will stop him; when the water comes, we will block it with earth. The short-term high-level fluctuations are because the election results have not yet been announced, and most of the main players choose to wait and see. High-leverage traders need risk control.
The recent rise is the market digesting the positive news based on Trump's election expectations in advance. Once it is realized, it will rise and fall in the short term. However, if Trump wins, the medium-term trend is bullish. Otherwise, it will fall unilaterally. There is no need to guess how the market will go, we just need to be prepared to meet it at any time. When the enemy comes, we will stop him; when the water comes, we will block it with earth. The short-term high-level fluctuations are because the election results have not yet been announced, and most of the main players choose to wait and see. High-leverage traders need risk control.
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Will there be a big shift in the market next week? The sky-high banana, BAN surges, another golden dog!
There’s nothing much to say about the weekend market; let’s wait for direction on Monday.
Is there still a bull market? Don't ask, the answer is no. If you still doubt this question, it's better to leave early, so you can still have a way out. Looking at the crypto circle, those who treat this as a serious industry have reaped considerable rewards, while those who hop around end up with nothing but debts.
Playing with coins is like living life. In an age of information explosion and an uncertain future, calming down and slowing down is your permanent competitive advantage! It’s okay to go slow; just fear standing still!
Is there still a bull market? Don't ask, the answer is no. If you still doubt this question, it's better to leave early, so you can still have a way out. Looking at the crypto circle, those who treat this as a serious industry have reaped considerable rewards, while those who hop around end up with nothing but debts.
Playing with coins is like living life. In an age of information explosion and an uncertain future, calming down and slowing down is your permanent competitive advantage! It’s okay to go slow; just fear standing still!
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