加密鸿宇

Fundamentals:
1. The Hawk's Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $591.2 million yesterday, while the spot Ethereum had a net inflow of $64.1 million yesterday.
2. OpenAI announced that users will soon be able to purchase products through ChatGPT. As a bellwether of the global AI industry, OpenAI's e-commerce functionality reinforces the expectation of 'AI practicality,' providing a dual boost to the sentiment and logic of the AI sector in the cryptocurrency market, and is expected to trigger rotational rises in the short term.
3. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 91.1%.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The daily chart shows a pullback to the 745 level at the beginning of the month. The first wave ended with a ten thousand point rally, entering a relative high oscillation zone of 83-86. The second wave started from 84, followed by another ten thousand point rally, after which it entered a high adjustment phase. The market still needs to continue adjusting, waiting for the 14-day moving average below to extend upwards. Meanwhile, the K-line adjusts through oscillations to pull back to the lower blue trend line to end the adjustment. In the short term, if the Bitcoin price does not break the 92 level, after multiple surges above 95 to release the trapped positions in the February dense transaction area, it is expected to continue to rise. Looking at the 4-hour chart, there have been multiple pullbacks after reaching around 955, which not only reflects the profit-taking behavior of short-term traders at the beginning of the month but also shows the release of trapped positions above 95. At the same time, each pullback low on the 4-hour chart is continuously rising. For intraday operations, key support to watch below is at the 936-926 level, while key resistance above is at the 954-964 level.

Fundamentals:
1. ProShares Trust submitted a registration amendment for the XRP series futures ETF to the SEC, which is intended to take effect on April 30. The approval of the ETF is seen as recognition of Ripple, enhancing investor confidence. Ripple's price rose by 3.5% in the past 24 hours, outperforming other major crypto assets during the same period.
2. An Ethereum Foundation researcher proposed to increase the Ethereum gas limit by 100 times over the next four years. The increase in the gas limit may be seen by the market as a positive signal for Ethereum's expanded capabilities, thus boosting investor confidence. The future is bright, but the road is tortuous; uncertainties and potential risks during implementation may also lead to market fluctuations.

Fundamentals:
1. The U.S. SEC will hold a cryptocurrency roundtable at 1 AM Beijing time on April 26.
2. The Republican Hospital openly challenges Trump: Protect the Federal Reserve as soon as possible, stay away from the 'claws' of the White House.
3. Wall Street traders are in chaos, with the dollar, U.S. bonds, and U.S. stocks all in disarray, fluctuating based solely on Trump's words, causing unprecedented turmoil with his daily 'rhetoric'.
4. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May has dropped to 91.7%; Federal Reserve officials warn: If high tariffs lead to a spike in the unemployment rate, they will support interest rate cuts!
Technical analysis:
BTC: Previously mentioned that the new chairman of the U.S. SEC is a close associate. The SEC cryptocurrency roundtable meeting at 1 AM tonight may bring some favorable factors. After a three-day large bullish trend following a ten-thousand-point increase, it has entered a high-level consolidation in the 918-945 range. Currently, this is a normal technical adjustment, a repair of the technical gap. This adjustment will not last too long, generally lasting two or three days before the market begins to form new minor trends. Currently, there are many favorable factors in the market, but on the technical side, there is a huge selling pressure in the 95-98 range. Breaking through this range requires sufficient trading volume. From the 4-hour perspective, yesterday's pullback near 918 entered a rebound again, touching near 945 in the morning before retracing, which is a sign of the bulls attempting to push up and also a release of pressure at the 95 level above. The intra-day market is mainly consolidating in the 918-945 range, focusing on high-low strategies, with an emphasis on the favorable policies that may emerge from the SEC cryptocurrency roundtable meeting early in the morning.

Analysis of Expectations for Five Interest Rate Cuts by the Federal Reserve
There is significant divergence in current market predictions regarding the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Although economist surveys and the Federal Reserve's official dot plot show that the mainstream expectation is for two rate cuts this year (in September and December), Barclays has adjusted its prediction to only a 25 basis point cut in June, while some analysts believe there may be 2-3 cuts throughout the year. The uncertainty of economic policies under the Trump administration, especially potential tax cuts and trade tariffs, may further disrupt the Federal Reserve's decision-making path.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller has explicitly ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in March and emphasized the need to observe inflation data and employment market performance. If the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflationary pressures persist, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. However, if economic growth significantly slows or the employment market deteriorates, the number of rate cuts may increase to 3 times or more. This policy uncertainty has led to significant deviations in market expectations regarding “massive monetary easing.”

After staying in the cryptocurrency space for a long time, you will find the true state of this industry: the vast majority of ordinary people lose money after entering the industry.
Pay close attention to the many voices in the community that are losing money and being trapped. Even if there are short-term profits, it is difficult to achieve overall profitability after a year.
So why does this happen? Wasn't it easy to see others making money when entering the space?
Today, let's analyze this from the perspective of cognitive thinking!
The first common mistake is to underestimate the market!
The threshold for entering the cryptocurrency market is low, and after most investors enter the industry, they generally trade directly. Very few choose to first learn investment knowledge, understand K-line trends, and figure out how to make money and how to lose money. Therefore, from a psychological perspective, they underestimate the professional difficulty of investing. The reason for this underestimation may be that after entering society, they have already developed some abilities in a certain field or achieved small successes, leading them to believe that they can easily succeed in the investment field as well.

Fundamental Analysis:
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May has risen to 96.3%;
2. The asset management scale of Ethereum ETF has reached a historic low, with outflows exceeding $1.1 billion in seven weeks;
3. The new chairman of the SEC, Paul Atkins, will take office tomorrow at 4 p.m. Eastern Time. He holds a supportive attitude towards innovation in the crypto market, encourages self-regulation, is friendly towards free markets, and has a relatively loose regulatory stance.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The research report yesterday clearly stated to focus on the pressure at the 875-885 positions above. The high point during the Asian trading session basically maintained around 875. There was a wave of selling before the US market opened, followed by a rise after the opening, peaking near 885, and then dropped to 864 around 1 a.m. The trend fully meets expectations. On the daily line level, yesterday closed with a large bullish line with a shadow line above. Due to the recent surge in risk aversion in the financial market, Bitcoin, which has 'digital gold' characteristics, shows a weak positive correlation with gold, while the crypto market shows a two-tier differentiation, with Bitcoin rising alone and Ethereum and shanzhai liquidity being weak, overall in a correction. A strong rebound this morning created a new recent high. The 4-hour line entered a fluctuating adjustment after yesterday's rise, with the K-line retracing to the 7-day moving average and continuing to attack. The K-line center keeps moving up, and in the future, focus on the bearish signal of the 4-hour line once again peaking and then closing with a bearish line. For intraday operations, focus on the pressure at the 884-894 positions above and the support at the 874-864 positions below.

Fundamentals:
1. The eagle has caused instability in the financial market, with U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds moving in sync, and the dollar index breaking 100, indicating that funds are withdrawing from dollar assets. Gold has hit new highs, and risk aversion sentiment in the investment market is rising, with continuous selling pressure on U.S. bonds, and negative sentiment will be transmitted to high-risk assets.
2. Even though last night's CPI data unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, marking a new low in four years, the Federal Reserve remains deeply concerned about inflation under tariffs, and the inflation report has been completely ignored. Without the tariff trade war, the Federal Reserve would have already implemented its first rate cut this year. Wall Street is no longer buying into it, and Trump's flip-flopping behavior has lost 'credibility.'

Fundamentals:
1. Less than 13 hours after equal tariffs take effect, Trump reversed course and suspended tariffs for 90 days, and during this period significantly reduced them to 10%, while raising tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately; the three major U.S. stock indices surged, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2008; Bitcoin also rose by more than 6,000 points.
2. Federal Reserve Minutes: All participants believe that given the significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, it is appropriate to maintain interest rates unchanged; the U.S. economy faces risks of high inflation and low growth; inflation has risen this year due to tariffs.
3. China has raised tariffs on all U.S. imports from 34% to 84%, officially starting the China-U.S. trade war.

After many years of experience in the cryptocurrency space, I have accumulated quite a bit of knowledge. Today, I would like to share these trading insights with everyone, hoping it can be helpful to you all.
1. Bubble Crisis of Popular Coins: In a bull market, those popular coins that are heavily speculated upon, especially those that are tightly controlled, may appear to be thriving with rapid increases, but they actually hide crises. They are like balloons that have been overly inflated; the faster they rise, the bigger the bubble. Once the market direction changes or speculation fades, the price can drop rapidly like free fall, and risks will multiply. Therefore, for these popular coins, we should not be deceived by their short-term gains but rather be wary of the huge risks lurking behind them.

Fundamentals:
1. The 'reciprocal tariff' will officially take effect at noon today; this wave of impact has led to a reduction of $10 trillion in global stock market value since the 3rd of this month. In this extreme environment (global trade war + bear market), referencing historical extreme volatility, the market value of cryptocurrencies could shrink by 50% in a short time;
2. As the 'reciprocal tariff' policy is about to take effect, on Tuesday, the hawk will sign the latest executive order to raise tariffs on China to 104%. The additional 104% tariff will take effect from noon today, causing global markets to fall into panic selling again. On Tuesday morning, global indices surged due to optimistic expectations of trade negotiations, but then during the U.S. trading hours, under the impact of the tariff news, market sentiment reversed, and the gains quickly evaporated and turned into a decline.

I have always said that mastering a skill is the 10,000-hour rule. With 8 hours a day and over 200 days a year of review, it takes about 5 years, which is just the foundation for stable profits. There will definitely be big pitfalls within 10 years, so to be safe, do not invest more than your capacity within that timeframe.
Many experts who have turned hundreds of thousands into tens of millions or even billions are just using contracts with very high leverage. As a result, many have lost everything in one cycle, but you just don’t know it. Human nature, in the face of major trends, often leads to the loss of correct judgment.
After much trial and error, I have summarized 8 iron rules; the content is not extensive but has significant value. If you think it makes no sense after reading, feel free to say what you like!