An A9 successful trader thoroughly explains 'using moving averages for swing trading' without ever missing, a true masterpiece.
The moving average is the simplest indicator, but it is the most classic. It represents the average price over N periods, reflecting the current average price of the market, and can also indicate whether the current position is bullish or bearish.
1. What is a moving average? Moving Average: Also known as the moving average line, it calculates the average closing price of a cryptocurrency (or stock) over the most recent N days, and connecting these points forms a moving average line.
The essence of the moving average lies in reflecting the average holding cost of the market and the price trend over a period of time.
Commonly used moving averages include:
MA5: 5-day moving average, average cost for the past week
Cryptocurrency Market Regulation and Market Analysis (June 13, 2025)
I. Regulatory Dynamics and Market Impact SEC Delays ETF Decision The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on Bitwise Dogecoin, Grayscale Hedera, and VanEck Avalanche ETFs. In the short term, this may suppress sentiment for related tokens, but in the medium to long term, the ETF approval process remains an important signal for the compliance of the cryptocurrency market. If approved later, it could attract traditional capital inflows, creating structural benefits.
II. Technical Analysis and Operational Strategy 1. Bitcoin (BTC) Short-term pressure release, medium-term focus on macro catalysts: The daily chart shows continuous volume decline, breaking through the key support level of 103,000, with a short-term test of the 95,000 area. If a support platform can be established here, combined with expectations of ETF capital inflows and a shift towards monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, it may still challenge previous highs. In operation, focus on the support at 102,000-103,000 during the day, with resistance at 105,000-106,000; if it falls below $95,000 in the medium term, caution is advised for trend deterioration.
2. Ethereum (ETH) Clear support at the bottom of the range, focus on volume changes: After a failed attempt to rise to 2,800, the daily chart has retreated and is currently testing the support at the bottom of the range at 2,480. If it stabilizes with reduced volume, it can be viewed as a buying opportunity, targeting the breakout situation at 2,700; if it breaks down with increased volume, caution is needed for trend reversal risks. In operation, focus on the support at 2,480-2,450 during the day, with resistance at 2,560-2,580; if it stabilizes above 2,700 with increased volume in the medium term, the target could rise to $3,050.
3. Altcoins Systematic correction, caution for liquidity risks: Heightened geopolitical risks have led to risk aversion in funding, resulting in significant declines in altcoins. In the short term, caution is needed for the chain reaction triggered by Bitcoin falling below 103,000 and Ethereum falling below 2,480. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and wait for market panic to stabilize before selectively investing in quality projects (such as leading L1/L2s). In the medium term, monitor market capital absorption capacity when U.S. Treasuries mature; if Ethereum stabilizes, some quality altcoins may present explosive opportunities.
MARS1 is the official currency of the first artificial intelligence economy on Mars, symbolizing a key step for humanity towards interstellar economic divergence.
Its exchange mechanism with the Earth stablecoin USD1 indicates the embryonic form of the interstellar financial system.
With a market value of only 6.6M USD, MARS1, driven by an AI-based economic model,
is becoming a new favorite for speculation under the narrative of interstellar colonization, with its micro market cap implying high returns. #mars1
June 12, 2025 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis Sharing!
Fundamentals: The Monetary Authority of Singapore's warning against unlicensed crypto platforms has raised short-term concerns in the market. However, in the long run, the acceleration of the compliance process will improve market health, benefiting stablecoins and on-chain payment sectors. The tense situation in the Middle East has strengthened the hedging properties of crypto assets, while the Trump administration's extension of the tariff suspension signals a relaxation of trade policies, which helps to boost global risk appetite and provides liquidity support for the crypto market.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC): The daily line closed in the red, but the upward momentum remains intact. The 7-day moving average continues to rise, and the technical gap has been filled. The 4-hour chart shows increased trading volume but no new highs in price, facing pressure at new highs. During the day, pay attention to the support levels at 1075-1065 and the resistance levels at 1095-1105.
Ethereum (ETH): The daily line has surged and then retreated into a correction, but the likelihood of a significant drop in the short term is low, maintaining a bullish wedge structure. The weekly chart indicates that the technical gap has been filled. If this week maintains a solid bullish candle, a breakthrough into the $3000 range is expected. The 4-hour chart shows that the support at 2740 is significant; during the day, focus on the support levels at 2740-2710 and the resistance levels at 2800-2830.
Altcoins: Overall, the correction magnitude is about 10%. Meme coins and those with significant gains are under severe pressure, and it is necessary to control retracement, operate in waves, decisively exit, and wait for the next opportunity.
On June 10, 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum continued their strong upward trend. Bitcoin broke through the $110,000 mark, reaching a high of $110,700, with a total market capitalization of $2.18 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $38.32 billion. Technical indicators show that while the MACD histogram has shortened, it remains positive, and the KDJ golden cross confirms a bullish dominance. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has surpassed $70 billion in scale, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, leading to continued inflow of institutional funds as a core driver.
In terms of operations, in the short term, attention can be paid to the support level of $110,000. If it stabilizes, one may consider a light long position, setting a stop loss at $108,000, with a target of $112,000-$115,000; for the medium to long term, it is recommended to hold spot assets or accumulate on dips, targeting $120,000, but one must be cautious of SEC regulations and macro data disturbances.
Ethereum also strengthened concurrently, with a price of $2,726, a daily fluctuation range of $2,650-$2,726, and a total market capitalization of $326.9 billion. The technical indicators show a balanced MACD, and the KDJ golden cross releases a mildly bullish signal. The network staking rate exceeding 27% reinforces the deflationary logic. The L2 project RISE has received investment and the spot ETH ETF attracted $564 million in May, solidifying the advantages of the DeFi/NFT ecosystem.
In the short term, attention can be paid to the resistance level of $2,740. A breakout here can trigger more long positions, with a stop loss at $2,650, and a pullback to around $2,600 presents a buying opportunity, targeting $2,800; for the medium to long term, if the daily line recovers $3,000, one could increase positions, with a support level set at $2,500, but remain cautious of network congestion and competitive challenges. Overall, the upward trend of both coins is clear, and investors need to dynamically adjust their positions based on risk preferences. $TRUMP $SUI #比特币走势观察 #币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币
Today's Market Analysis Sharing and Trading Strategies!
Bitcoin (BTC) The weekly chart closes with a long lower shadow bullish candle, rebounding after briefly breaking the 7-day moving average, with 94 as the key support level. The daily chart shows a downward consolidation structure, with 107 as the first resistance level above. Currently at the top of the second tier, if today closes with a solid bearish candle below 105, short-term downward space will open up. The 4-hour chart forms a V-shaped double top followed by a continuous bearish pullback, with the technical pattern leaning bearish. Focus on shorting opportunities in the 106-107 pressure zone during the day, with support at 104-103 below; breaking below this can see a drop to the 94 weekly support.
Ethereum (ETH) The weekly chart shows four consecutive bearish candles with long upper shadows, with 2400 as strong support for the 7-day moving average. The daily chart operates within a high-level range (2680-2480), and after breaking below the 30-day moving average, the rebound is weak. If the daily chart closes with a solid bearish candle below 2480, the target below is 2280. The 4-hour chart has broken the rebound channel, focusing on the 2510-2540 pressure zone during the day, with support at 2460-2420 below; breaking below this will continue the bearish trend.
Trading Suggestions BTC: Short lightly at 106-107 on a rebound, with a stop loss at 107.5 and a target of 104-103; if it breaks below 103, chase the short position with a stop loss at 103.5. ETH: Short lightly at 2510-2540 on a rebound, with a stop loss at 2560 and a target of 2460-2420; if it breaks below 2420, hold until 2280.
Altcoins The overall market lacks trending opportunities, suggesting to stay out and observe. The bottom absorption pattern must meet the following criteria: a volume spike followed by a volume contraction sideways, low-volume narrow fluctuations on the 4-hour chart, small-scale lines with false breakouts on increased volume without new lows. At this time, light positions can be taken for a short-term rebound, targeting a 30%-50% space, where leading coins in hot sectors may have doubling potential. $MASK $TRUMP $SOL #非农就业数据来袭 #特朗普马斯克分歧
Dogecoin (DOGE) Market Crash! After a 20% Plunge, Should We Buy the Dip or Run for Cover?
DOGE plummeted 22% this week, hitting a low of $0.16, the lowest since March! The psychological level of $0.18 has completely collapsed, and bears are celebrating! Currently, the RSI is approaching 30, indicating severe overselling, but bulls are weak in counterattack; $0.17 has become the last line of defense! If $0.16 cannot hold, the next stop could be the bear market low of $0.12 in 2024.
Open Interest (OI) Crash In the past 24 hours, over $50 million in DOGE contracts were liquidated, leaving many long positions devastated. Open Interest (OI) plummeted from $307 million on May 30 to $180 million, with leveraged funds fleeing en masse. If OI continues to shrink, DOGE may enter a death spiral!
Musk vs. Trump: A Political Farce, and DOGE Becomes the Biggest Victim! Musk and Trump have completely fallen out, threatening to cancel SpaceX government contracts, causing market panic! Tesla's stock price crashed 14%, and DOGE, as the "concept coin" most reliant on Musk's influence, was the first to suffer, plunging 10% in a single day. This inevitably reminds us of the glorious moments of 2023: when Musk merely changed the Twitter logo, it propelled DOGE to soar 30%; now, this "Dogecoin Godfather's" political downfall has almost completely evaporated the "Musk premium" of this MEME coin.
From a technical perspective, $0.16 has become the lifeline fought over by both bulls and bears. If this key support can be maintained, it might lead to a rebound as short sellers cover their positions; however, if it breaks down, it could trigger a larger-scale panic sell-off, heading straight for the 2024 bear market low of $0.12. What’s even more concerning is if Musk completely cuts ties with DOGE, this once top ten cryptocurrency by market cap could be reduced to a "zombie coin" completely.
After the panic sell-off, an epic buying opportunity may arise! DOGE has transformed from a “MEME War God” into a “high-risk casino,” where the game is about the thrill! Do you dare to catch the falling knife? $DOGE $PEPE $XRP #Strategy增持比特币 #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调
Bitcoin (BTC) On the daily chart, BTC is in a phase of adjustment before reaching a new high, with significant support at the 103 level. However, the 7-day moving average has once again pierced the 30-day moving average, forming a death cross. Today's closing is particularly crucial: if it closes with a lower shadow and a bullish candle, there is still a possibility of short-term strength, with the upper breakout point at the 107 level; if it breaks below the 30-day moving average support, the 103 level may be lost, and attention should be paid to defending the 95 level below. The 4-hour chart shows that the short cycle is in a correction state, with a rebound after hitting around 104 during US market hours. For intraday operations, the upper pressure should focus on the 106-107 area, while the lower support should pay close attention to the 104-103 level.
Ethereum (ETH) ETH has shown three consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart, continuing to strengthen after testing the support below, and is overall in an upward trend. If BTC effectively defends the 103 level, ETH is expected to continue to strengthen. From the 4-hour chart, ETH has been oscillating at high levels for nearly twenty days, with bottom support forming at the 2480 level below, and a phased support built at the 2580-2600 level over the past three days. For intraday operations, the lower support should focus on the 2580-2600 area, while the upper pressure should pay close attention to the 2680-2700 level.
Altcoin Market Currently, market liquidity is clearly leaning towards safe assets like BTC/ETH. If BTC breaks below the 103 level of support, altcoins may face greater downside potential. Strict risk control is required in operations, with the allowable space for capturing phase market fluctuations being controlled within 10%.
Naked K: The 4-hour chart shows a volume breakout from the consolidation range, with the current price being suppressed by the resistance level at 2665. If it breaks through and stabilizes, the bullish outlook continues. The daily chart closing with three green candles also indicates bullishness. MACD: The daily MACD shows a golden cross trend, with the 4-hour golden cross in progress; both timeframes indicate a bullish trend. Trading Volume: The intraday chart shows continuous large buy orders entering, clearly indicating that bulls are significantly stronger than bears. The current price is at the upper edge of a large consolidation range; everyone should pay attention to the intraday chart, as a large sell order at a high position would warrant caution for bulls. Bollinger Bands: The daily Bollinger Bands show an opening trend, with upper resistance at 2705, middle support at 2575, and lower support at 2446. Moving Averages: The daily price stands above all moving averages, with support at 2608/2575/2512. Fibonacci Sequence: This pullback's 0.236 level is 2541, 0.382 is 2588, 0.5 is 2627, 0.618 is 2665, and 0.786 is 2719. The next key level to watch is 2665; if the price breaks through 2719, I will continue to be bullish. The recent rise's pullback levels are 0.236 at 2658, 0.382 at 2646, 0.5 at 2635, and 0.618 at 2625. Vegas Channel: The 1-hour support area is 2557-2583, and the 4-hour support area is 2452-2486. Supply and Demand: Demand area below; 2627-2615-2605; supply area above, 2715-2729-2744, 2762-2788. Personal advice for reference only: I remain bullish on the overall trend. The medium-term is still in a consolidation range, and the short-term upward trend is facing effective resistance, which needs further observation. Operating suggestion: Until an effective breakout occurs, continue to trade within the range, buying low and selling high. $TRUMP $SUI $ME #FTX赔付 #美国加征关税
BTC Technical Analysis Yesterday, BTC rebounded precisely from the support level of 105, breaking through the resistance level of 107 during the US trading session, with the daily line closing as a solid bullish candle, confirming the effectiveness of the 30-day moving average support. Today, influenced by tariff news, it quickly rebounded after testing the 30-day moving average in the morning session, showing strong buying pressure below. The 4-hour K-line is oscillating upward along the MA14 moving average, with the MA180 moving average (103 USD) forming a mid-term defensive baseline; if it breaks below, it may trigger a technical adjustment. Intra-day operations need to focus on the support zone of 105-104 USD; if it stabilizes, a light long position can be attempted, with the upper pressure level in the range of 107-108 USD, and a breakthrough may challenge the psychological level of 110 USD.
ETH Technical Analysis ETH broke through the moving average pressure on the daily line and closed strongly bullish. After quickly recovering from the support level of 2580 USD in the morning session, it shows the bulls' control ability. The 4-hour level presents a healthy upward structure of “increased volume rise + reduced volume pullback,” with 2480 USD as a strong support area below. Current trading volume has not been fully released, so caution is needed regarding a potential breakout after reduced volume oscillation. Intra-day operations should consider 2600-2580 USD as entry points for long positions, with the upper pressure levels at 2660-2680 USD; if it breaks through, it could rise to 2730 USD. Attention should be paid to the continuous strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, which may drive the altcoin season.
Altcoin Opportunities Market liquidity is shifting from BTC to ETH and altcoin sectors, with AI tracks FET, WLD, and INJ leading, L2 expansion sectors arb and ZK showing active performance, and staking sector JTO highlighting potential for late gains. Key focus areas include:
AI Sector: FET has retraced after breaking through previous highs; if it tests 0.8 USD, it can be positioned; WLD is climbing along the 5-day moving average, with 10 USD support proving effective. L2 Expansion: ARB has consolidated with reduced volume after breaking the 2 USD resistance, with 1.8 USD as a key support; ZK has broken out of the box with increased volume, potential low buying opportunities may appear around 30 USD. Staking Sector: JTO is showing a daily MACD divergence, a light long position can be attempted around 0.5 USD.
In operations, it is necessary to control positions and prioritize targets that combine trading volume with technical breakthroughs, strictly set stop-loss levels, and those who want to obtain precise entry points can join the small circle!
Solv Protocol is using the RWA (Real World Assets) market as a breakthrough to reshape the financial value of Bitcoin and firmly establish its leading position in the BTCFi sector. The launched SolvBTC.AVAX product creatively transforms BTC from 'digital gold' into 'yield-generating tools' by linking Bitcoin with traditional asset returns such as U.S. Treasury bonds and private credit. Users can deposit Bitcoin to receive SolvBTC.AVAX tokens, automatically participating in tokenized asset investments without manual operations, thus enjoying stable returns from traditional financial markets. This model has attracted over 25,000 BTC (approximately $2.48 billion) into the ecosystem, with a total locked value (TVL) exceeding $2.3 billion, serving 537,000 users, validating the strong market demand for 'on-chain yield-bearing Bitcoin'. In terms of ecological cooperation, Solv Protocol's layout is highly forward-looking. Its collaboration with institutions such as BlackRock and Avalanche brings tokenized Treasury bonds and private credit worth billions of dollars on-chain, providing low-risk yield channels for BTC holders. At the same time, cooperation with Antalpha Prime (a strategic partner of Bitmain) strengthens asset security management, while the integration of technologies such as Chainlink and Pendle optimizes yield automation and cross-chain interaction. These collaborations not only expand Solv's institutional funding access but also position it as an 'infrastructure-level protocol' that connects traditional finance with DeFi. Through RWA innovation, technological standardization, and ecological alliances, Solv Protocol has formed a 'product-technology-funding' flywheel effect. It not only redefines the financial attributes of Bitcoin but also builds an insurmountable first-mover advantage in the BTCFi sector, making it a paradigm-level project in the integration of the crypto industry and traditional finance. #BTC赛道龙头Solv进军RWA
On June 4, 2025, Bitcoin's price exhibited volatile movement, with the latest price at $105,779.000, an opening price of $105,920.000, a highest price of $106,495.000, and a lowest price of $105,070.000. From the daily chart, Bitcoin's price fluctuated within the range of $103,000 to $108,000, indicating that the market is in a relatively high-level consolidation phase.
In comparison to Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance on June 4, 2025, was relatively stable. The latest price is $2,609.7000, the opening price is $2,607.4200, the highest price reached $2,655.3800, and the lowest price was $2,563.3000. From the daily chart, Ethereum's price shows a volatile upward trend, indicating that bullish strength has a certain advantage. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD indicator shows that the histogram remains positive and is gradually lengthening, indicating that bullish strength is strengthening. However, the KDJ indicator shows a neutral value of 23, with no golden cross or death cross signals, and the market direction still needs confirmation. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the price touched the upper band before retreating, indicating some pressure above, but overall it remains in an upward channel.
In June, the cryptocurrency market will witness a massive token unlocking wave, involving multiple mainstream projects. According to Tokenomist data, tokens worth over $3.3 billion will enter the circulating market this month, and Bitcoin-related projects may also be affected to some extent. Token unlocking typically means that early investors and project parties will be able to sell tokens for cash, which may increase market supply and pose potential pressure on Bitcoin's price.
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data
This Friday (June 6, 2025), the U.S. will release the latest non-farm payroll data. This data is an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy and directly affects market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the data shows strong performance, indicating a robust U.S. job market, the market may expect the Federal Reserve to maintain tight policies or slow down interest rate cuts, which will lead to funds flowing out of risk assets, putting pressure on Bitcoin's price. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the market may anticipate that the Federal Reserve will adopt an accommodative policy, with funds possibly flowing into the cryptocurrency market, pushing Bitcoin's price upward. $ME $TRUMP $ORDI #美国加征关税 #FTX赔付 #Strategy增持比特币