佛文丨Crypto 聚合KOL

Now it is more and more like the eve of the big crash in 2021

A landmark event is coming

(24 years of presidential inauguration/21 years of coinbase ipo)

Specific altcoins are in chaos, Trump meme coins are on fire, and the market fomo sentiment is all up. The heat is too high, but we have to pay attention to easy defense. Yesterday's square article also explained that we should sell at highs and control positions. The expected landing will usher in a wave of declines.
(Trump coin in 2025, etc./Dogcoin in 2021)

Market sentiment is very excited
Continuous out-of-circle events have attracted a lot of attention and funds

At this time, you must pay attention to risk control

The key is not how much money you have made in floating profit
The key is how much money you have stopped profit

It is definitely right to take the money for safekeeping
After the madness, there must be a mess, every time

Bitcoin is money
Meme coin is not

#特朗普上任前风向分析 #TRUMP市值突破 $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Last night, the market sentiment of FOMO was unbearable to watch. The funding rate for Bitcoin was 0.1, and the annualized borrowing rate on Binance peaked at 80%, while OKX reached 43%. The peak madness of a bull market is nothing more than this.

If we follow past bull markets, this kind of FOMO sentiment would start with Bitcoin down 20%. But the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed now, and I have mentioned what those fundamentals are. This leads to continuous capital grabbing Bitcoin, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to drop significantly. As for whether it can really drop a lot, short-term predictions are impossible, and predicting the short-term is meaningless due to high randomness.

In the short term, if the increase is too much, it can drop, or it can digest profit-taking in the form of sideways movement.

This sudden drop in Bitcoin saw altcoins not dropping much relative to their increase. Why? This is a characteristic of the latter half of a bull market, the rotation of capital. Many people will sell Bitcoin, but the capital will not leave the market; it will instead buy mainstream coins and altcoins.

Ethereum performed strongly during this sudden drop in Bitcoin, combined with the positive news of Trump taking office and the Prague upgrade in March. I believe the ETH/BTC weekly chart will continue to rise.

I do not hold much hope for the overall market in December; I am focused on the increases in January and February.

The period of January and February 2025 is comparable to the months of past bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In both of these bull markets, there were significant increases during these two months.
Subsequent positive news not materializing does not mean pessimism; I will continue to hold my positions and remain bullish. #BTC☀

On June 19, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, keeping rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. The dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve still expects to cut rates twice in 2025. U.S. interest rate futures prices predict a 71% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 60% previously.

Chairman Powell stated: No one has much confidence in the predictions of the interest rate path; rate cuts could happen soon or not soon at all, depending on the impact of tariff levels.

Trump continues to urge for rate cuts, saying: "Mr. Powell, you're too late! You are a disgrace to America! Powell has cost America hundreds of billions of dollars; he is indeed one of the stupidest people."

$BTC

$ETH
$BNB

Market Dynamics：

I just want to say that the recent trend is a bit hard to understand. You could say the U.S. stock market is up, but it’s not following suit; however, when the U.S. stock market drops, it really does drop. 😭

1. BTC has been fluctuating at a high level, and overall, the number of ETFs and publicly listed companies that can be bought is decreasing. It remains to be seen if there will be a black swan event that causes a crash;

2. ETH has basically started to stabilize. Buying during the divergence, the greater the divergence between bullish and bearish opinions, the easier it is for a direction to emerge;

3. SOL has been continuously receiving various good news, but due to pumpdotfun's constant collection, there is still considerable concern about selling pressure on SOL;

4. White House: Trump will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran;

5. The Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB 2324 in Arizona, USA, has been passed by the Senate;

6. Semler Scientific plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027 and has appointed Joe Burnett to be in charge of Bitcoin strategy;

7. Trump: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should lower interest rates by 250 basis points;

8. Kraken integrates with Babylon to launch Bitcoin staking services;

9. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of $2.4 billion for eight consecutive days, while the outflow of Ethereum ETFs has slowed.

Questions I have been thinking about recently:

At present, China's one-year deposit rate has fallen below 1%, and there is no turning point for interest rate reversal for at least a long time

And China's housing prices continue to bottom out. Will that critical point in time and space have a significant impact on the current investment structure of ordinary people? !

How will ordinary people choose financial products in this environment, and what kind of financial targets will be chosen in the domestic environment? What changes and countermeasures will these impacts bring to our investment? !

What revolutionary reshaping will the continuous improvement of supervision bring to the on-chain asset management industry?

In the face of the deepening structural market, what are the real right things to do and do things right in investment? !

In addition to industry survey data reports, what other channels can better capture future trend signals?

Binance exchange rebate link: https://www.marketwebb.net/join?ref=VIP19

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Market Dynamics:

After waiting all night for Iran's big decision, I thought I might have to seek asylum, but in the end, nothing happened. Is our money being held hostage under the fear of bombing?

1. BTC seems to only feel the crypto fear caused by the Iran war, while the US stock market continues to rally, BTC can't keep up at all. Is the capital migrating towards the US stock market?

2. ETH has to be said to be affected by the whole market; otherwise, it should have had a good performance.

3. SOL is the weakest presence; anyway, you can't look for it to catch a rebound. If you short, it must be the one to short; currently, it looks like that.

4. The Ohio House of Representatives passed a bill exempting Bitcoin payments under $200 from tax.

5. The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% unchanged.

6. Powell: The Federal Reserve's prediction uncertainty is unusually high, and the short-term path is more referential.

7. Federal Reserve spokesperson: The reason the Federal Reserve is holding back is that there are risks associated with any measures taken.

The US stock market is not afraid of turmoil and directly rallies, and only people in the crypto circle are talking about dropping nuclear bombs 😂, it's really a bit dizzying.

Stablecoin Circle rises 34% is the direction for today, and stablecoins remain a hot topic. For example, Xiexin Nengke, Hailian Jinhui, Dongxin Heping, Chutianlong, Annie Co., Ltd., etc.

Everyone is promoting stablecoins, but what people don't know is that stablecoins are eroding the gains that everyone should be getting from Bitcoin and altcoins. The more stablecoins there are, the less altcoins and Bitcoin appreciate. Especially altcoins. At least Bitcoin has a decentralized value storage.

The increase in stablecoins is an expansion of actual use cases, while the complete disillusionment of altcoins is a market consensus. Bitcoin has always been priced as a speculative asset against the dollar, and as more money enters the market, altcoins are setting new market capitalization lows.

How difficult is it to achieve the unity of knowledge and action in the cryptocurrency world?
There are countless people who think they are genius traders, making money by entering and exiting short contracts in minutes when they guess the direction correctly.
There are also many who believe they can always increase their positions with high leverage and that they will never hit the liquidation line.
Even more are those who hold U and think it will drop further, insisting on buying at the lowest point.

Wake up, use only the money you can afford to lose for contract leverage, and firmly accept the consequences when you're wrong; stand tall when you get hit. If you're following someone else's trade, then execute it decisively: buy when they tell you to buy, and sell when they tell you to sell. Remember, it's someone else's brain at work, not yours.

As for spot trading, those who miss the boat every time will eventually end up at the top of the mountain.

Volume Increase and Rise: The main characteristic is a high volume surge at a high position, or a large gap up followed by significant fluctuations. The essence is that it doesn't really rise much!

A volume surge or a large gap up will definitely attract some buying interest. We all know that the main players do not have just a small amount of stocks like retail investors that can be sold off in one go. This will create an illusion of market fluctuations, giving us the impression that the main players are accumulating shares in preparation for a renewed upward push!

It's like the story of the boy who cried wolf; after a few times of rising and then falling, retail investors will let their guard down, feeling that the market won't drop further, and will boldly increase their positions. For instance, after each rise and fall, the main players sell a portion of their stocks, and after a significant market drop the next day, they quickly buy back, creating a feeling that the market won't drop further! After this happens multiple times, everyone will ignore it, allowing for slow selling.

You might have a concern about how you can know what the main players are doing. Indeed, I also don't know; it's all speculation. However, when the market was at 25,000, I called for bottom fishing based on observing the main players as a reference. Currently, it seems that the market movement is not from new investors; those who have seen my previous posts should be aware of this. I'm digressing a bit; let's talk about the second characteristic!

The stronger it gets at the top: If the main players are selling off, how can it get stronger? This ties into a previous point. The main players have a lot of stocks and cannot sell them all at once like retail investors.

The main players are like actors; they need to maintain the price to give retail investors confidence, while also thinking about how to sell off their stocks. If they mishandle this and retail investors catch on, they might run away first, making it difficult for the main players to sell at a high price.

Therefore, they need to repeatedly push down and then pull back up, and even continuously create new highs to stimulate the highest desires of retail investors. This means that in the area where selling occurs at the top, the main players have to put on a strong performance.

Reflecting in the market trend, it feels very strong, and in terms of technical indicators, it will show divergences after fluctuations or continuous adjustments followed by new highs. This is the logic behind divergence and contradiction.

You need to stimulate the market a bit; a little stimulation yesterday afternoon accelerated the movement!

Why do 90% of traders ultimately exit the market in failure?

Because they simply do not understand trading; trading is not about who earns faster, but about who survives longer.

How to survive in the market?

Beginners are often preoccupied with thoughts of getting rich quickly, usually engaging in heavy trading and frequently being defeated by the market.

Experts only focus on one thing each day: how to survive in the market, prioritizing safety before profit.

1. Always use stop-loss on every trade.

2. Always keep enough ammunition; as long as the green hills are there, one need not worry about firewood.

3. If you don't understand the market, stay in cash.

Aside from mainstream coins, don't dwell on other altcoins and inscriptions for the quarter! Wake up... The past is the past, that's called 'sunk cost,' let it go. The entire cryptocurrency ecosystem has changed, and liquidity is severely lacking!
It's time to reassess and start anew.

Trump has once again started attacking everyone's trading accounts in the morning, calling for everyone to evacuate Tehran. It is said that Israel has already gained air superiority over Tehran, and the U.S. military is frequently deploying a large number of tankers to the Middle East. It seems that the situation is escalating. For Little Ant, there is only one way to wage war: to intimidate the opponent and then meet their ceasefire demands. This time, the U.S. military is also expected to get involved, at least to provide assistance.

Of course, Iran still has strength, and Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have also expressed support for Iran. This is likely a result of the Eastern powers showcasing their influence. Regardless, it doesn't harm us; fight however you want, and if someone loses their chips, they can come to negotiate with us, and we can selectively offer help.
We are not afraid of chaos! Only when the world is sufficiently chaotic can it highlight the military strength of the Eastern powers. Only after a large-scale and clear war will the world believe in the true strength of the Eastern powers. Otherwise, through that kind of covert electronic warfare or localized indirect conflict, even if Western military institutions and leadership know that they have fallen behind us, many of their officials and citizens will not acknowledge it. Ironically, officials and citizens in our own country also do not recognize it. Therefore, I am looking forward to a clear and direct confrontation that will open the eyes of the entire world!

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

In the near future, the entire investment market will be a news market driven by geopolitical events. So assess your own level, and take a break when needed. Don’t look back and regret when prices haven’t changed but your money is gone.

For example, today, Trump announced that the UK and the US would sign an agreement and mentioned a pause on sanctions against Russia. Doesn’t this seem like a pre-war coordination to unify internal understanding during the G7 meeting (to ensure allies are on the same page and to prevent accidental escalation into a nuclear war)?

The US stock market may have been overly optimistic about Iran's hopes for negotiations, so when Trump said, "Everyone should leave the Iranian capital, Tehran," oil prices started to rise and the crypto market began to jump.

Regarding the situation between Israel and Iran, if a swift war concludes quickly, that would be a positive outcome; however, if it drags on, it will have negative consequences. Why? Because oil is the mother of inflation.

$BTC

The high inflation of the 1970s may be just around the corner. The situation cannot be said to be identical, but it can be described as extremely similar.
$ETH

Trump causes trouble at six thirty, took a glance, and immediately BTC and ETH plummeted
$BTC
$ETH

By the time you reach the stage of guaranteed winnings, you should not have any emotional fluctuations regarding losing money and making money.

You no longer suffer from stop-losses; you understand that this is part of the game. You are no longer joyful about making money; you know it is an inevitable result. You no longer take wins or losses to heart; you only focus on doing the right thing at the right time.

You know that profits will follow.

On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index rising by 1.6%, the S&P 500 index rising by 1.06%, gold falling by 1%, Brent crude oil falling by 2%, and the U.S. dollar index falling by 0.17%.

This Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary. Recent CPI and PPI data have been weaker than expected, prompting the market to bring forward its expectations for the next rate cut.

Zhong Xuegao Founder: Trying to invest in cryptocurrency is a very big mistake, and I still do not own a single Bitcoin

Isn't it the one who buys ice cream that loses money?

The Greed Index for the stock market is 59°, and the Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market is 60°.

The overall market hasn't dropped much, but everyone is very sensitive to fluctuations. A few points down, and there are various worries, fearing the bear market is coming.

What about a little rise?

Everyone gets excited and chases the rise, only to be scared off by a pullback.

The collective psychology of chasing rises and selling on dips has reached its extreme, and everyone's holding cost is getting higher and higher; how ironic is that?

The key issue is: "The time left in the bull market is not much."

If you keep chasing rises and selling on dips a few more times, it's basically hard to escape the fate of being deeply trapped in the late stage of a bull market.

Some say this round of the bull market is very difficult.

In fact, every round of the bull market is not easy because the movement of each bull market does not match public expectations; this round is relatively better.

After all, there hasn't been a significant crash like 312 or 519 along the way.

Historical trends are definitely not reliable; the only thing to reference in investing is to trade against the market between "extreme greed and extreme fear."

What is feared is that you don't dare to buy when the market is in panic,

and get excited and chase the rise when the market is surging.

If the position is heavy, then reduce it a bit on the rebound. In fact, looking at the recent activity level of funds, it's basically just Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then there's DeFi. Although Solana looks a bit strong, the activity level of funds is slightly less robust!

Actually, it's very difficult for the market to break a new high in the upcoming trend. Although it's not advisable to seek swords by carving a boat, the recent market trend resembles that of last July at 7.3, which is in a position of neither up nor down!

From a structural perspective, there’s no need to be so melancholic. Currently, there’s too little circulating Bitcoin in the market. Compared to when the Russia-Ukraine war started without an ETF, the moment the news broke, it dropped more than ten percent; this strength is much weaker now.

Looking at the short term, 100,000 is a psychological threshold for most funds. If buying pressure doesn't break it, it will provide support; conversely, if it breaks, it might accelerate a bit.

Then there's the Trump family wanting to issue B tokens again; it's really just for the sake of circulating liquidity, which is so poor that they still want to suck blood!

Additionally, the stablecoin bill will be voted on in the House on the 18th. If passed, it would be considered a positive development.

Then there's the situation in the Middle East and whether oil prices will continue to soar. If they keep rising, inflation expectations will increase, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in September will decrease. However, I believe the probability of a rate cut in September is over 90%!