市场分析

Glassnode: 88% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, market support is strong, but short-term fluctuations still need to be watched

According to the latest data from Glassnode, 88% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, which shows that market support is quite strong. Although Bitcoin prices have fluctuated a bit recently, the overall market foundation is still very solid.

The report shows that Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has dropped to the long-term average of 1.74. Historically, this level usually means that the market is consolidating, and the last time this happened was in August 2024. At that time, unrealized gains were also cut, but then the market started to rise again. This shows that the market is resetting and preparing for the next round of gains.

At the same time, the realized profit and loss ratio has once again broken through 1.0, indicating that market sentiment is changing and traders are starting to turn from losing positions to profit. Glassnode's analysis believes that this shows that the market has enough liquidity and confidence to absorb realized gains, which is an important sign of a strong market.

Macro indicators also support this. Analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that the 30-day rate of change of the Bitcoin Composite Volatility Index is currently -3.5%, indicating that the market is still in the accumulation phase. Generally speaking, panic selling occurs when this index climbs above 15%. This further shows that most market participants are quietly laying out their positions in preparation for a larger price increase.

As of now, Bitcoin has risen slightly by 2.8% in the past 24 hours, and the trading price fluctuates between $97,000. In the past week, Bitcoin has risen by 2.5%, but it is still up 4.4% in two weeks. In the past 30 days, Bitcoin has risen by 23.6%, only 13% away from its all-time high.

However, there are still risks in the market. As Bitcoin approaches the psychological mark of $100,000, market observers are cautious about the potential influx of supply. Glassnode warned that in order to maintain the upward momentum, equally strong demand is needed to absorb any profit-taking. Whether the market can continue to rise in May depends on whether ETFs can continue to have net inflows, corporate bond purchases, and retail investors' interest.

Where do you think Bitcoin will go next?Leave your opinion in the comments section!

#比特币 #Glassnode #市场分析

Soon there will be 400 people. Some say I post updates to 🎣, I can only say it's a narrow perspective. I offer you opportunities to make money, yet you refuse and still want to show off your insights. Are you saying you are all 🐶 dragging along with a few hundred others? Just you few byd elites, right?
Additionally: After the big drop on April 30 and May 1 last year, there was an immediate rebound. Considering the current overall market situation, the May Day holiday may be even more perilous than last year! History may have similarities and repetitions, I will control my position and play small during the May Day period! Personally, I prefer to trade in a fluctuating market after significant rises and falls.
$SOL $ETH
#市场分析

10x Research: Bitcoin is facing resistance between $94,000 and $95,000, and may experience short-term consolidation before breaking through $100,000

On April 28, the crypto research institution 10x Research released an analysis report indicating that Bitcoin is currently hovering in the resistance range of $94,000 to $95,000, with bearish signals strengthening in the short term.

Meanwhile, two reversal indicators have turned bearish, and the current stochastic oscillator has risen to 95%, indicating that there may be some downward risk in the short term.

However, some analysts believe that this may just be a brief consolidation phase before Bitcoin breaks through $100,000.

Additionally, the report mentions that South Korean crypto retail traders may soon turn their attention to a certain altcoin. This could suggest that although Bitcoin is under pressure in the current resistance range, the entire crypto market remains vibrant, and investors' interests may shift between different tokens.

In summary, despite the changes in market sentiment and fluctuations in technical indicators reminding us that short-term adjustments may be inevitable, such adjustments may not necessarily be a bad thing; they could lay the groundwork for future breakthroughs. After all, no rally is without its bumps, and adjustments may actually be the market gathering strength.

What do you think about Bitcoin hovering around the resistance range of $94,000 to $95,000? Do you think it will soon break through $100,000, or will it continue to consolidate for a while?

ALT is listed on#Binanceand has increased by 5200%, reaching as high as $0.33!

Tracking the addresses on the chain, here are some findings

The total amount of $ALT is 10B, and the circulating supply is 1.1B

1/The top ten currency holding addresses hold a total of 9,915,694,531 $ALT , accounting for 99.15% of the total!

2/Addresses tagged#Binancehold a total of 277,842,597 $ALT , accounting for 25.2% of the circulating supply. Binance may become the largest banker in $ALT !

3/The 13th currency holding address is the largest airdrop address and has not been transferred yet!

4/sungjae.eth is an airdrop hunter who received 421,187 $ALT airdrops! Deposited 20k $ALT into#Binance2 hours ago!

If you are interested in airdrops, you can use them as tracking objects!
#ALT#Binance #市场分析

#币安7周年 #BTC下跌分析 #市场分析
Recent data shows that from July 3 to date, more than 70,000 bitcoins have flowed out of exchanges, worth about $4 billion.

It is worth noting that in the context of the German government's continued selling and the market in panic, there are still large funds quietly increasing their holdings.

This phenomenon may mean several things:

The price of Bitcoin may have bottomed out, and large institutional investors are seizing the opportunity to expand their holdings, expecting a rebound in the future.

These large investors may remain confident in the long-term value of Bitcoin and are taking the opportunity to increase their investments.

Even in a market downturn, there are still funds looking for value investment opportunities and looking forward to the long-term development of Bitcoin.

The quiet increase in holdings by large funds may indicate that the market is looking for signs of bottoming out. However, we still need to pay close attention to future market trends and policy changes to better judge the medium- and long-term direction of Bitcoin. $BTC

🚀 Bitcoin's road to a new high is blocked, and analysts tell you the reasons behind it!

🧐 Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering between $55,000 and $65,000, and it seems a bit difficult to break through the $70,000 mark. So, analysts from IntoTheBlock gave some interesting insights!

📉 Why is it difficult for the price to break through? The reason is that many Bitcoin traders bought BTC in the price range of $61,700 to $70,500, but now the price is around $56,500, which means they are all losing money. So, if the price rises back to this range, there may be a lot of people who want to sell quickly to reduce losses or at least break even.

🔄 Therefore, analysts from IntoTheBlock said that whenever a large number of traders lose money, the price of Bitcoin will face selling pressure when it approaches their purchase level, which is why Bitcoin has difficulty breaking through this price range!

📊 What does historical data say? Historically, September is usually not a good month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has fallen in September in six of the past seven years, with an average drop of 4.5%. Moreover, September this year did not start well, with the price falling from $60,000 to $55,000.

🌐 At the same time, analysts also mentioned some other factors that may affect the price of Bitcoin, such as market consolidation after Bitcoin halving, uncertainty in the US election, large amounts of Bitcoin held by the government, and the upcoming asset distribution to Mt. Gox creditors.

🐋 Despite the challenges, Bitcoin's on-chain data shows positive signs. The number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC has reached a 17-month high, which means that large investors are buying on dips and may be preparing for a rebound at the end of the year.

💬 What do you think about the current market conditions and future trends of Bitcoin? Do you think Bitcoin can break through the current resistance and set new highs after the interest rate cut in September? Leave your insights in the comment section!

#比特币 #市场分析 #加密货币趋势 #IntoTheBlock

Recently, liquidity has been declining, trading volume has sharply decreased, and there is an extreme lack of active capital. Except for #Meme幣 , other sectors are very disgusting. However, playing with #meme will involve greater risks, and the chances of making money are extremely low. Will things really get better after the election? I don't know. I only know that mainstream cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH are facing the challenge of drying up liquidity. The wealth creation effect in the entire market is increasingly diminishing. This place used to be full of opportunities for a comeback, but now it is developing into a casino. It has been four or five days without any operations. I hope the market makers can pump the market to help me regain some confidence. #币圈新机遇 #区块链 #市场分析

#比特币 #市场分析 #投资策略 #市场动态
Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis: Critical Support Level Faces Threat

The recent price action of Bitcoin has made investors nervous. Despite the recent gains in Bitcoin, the break below $65,000 still highlights a critical threshold. According to the weekly chart, Bitcoin is oscillating around $64,000, which is a potential risk area. As the price of Bitcoin hovers below the key level, a downward trend may occur.

Bitcoin loses support and faces potential downside. Bitcoin has lost the intermediate support level of $66,500, and the support level of $64,000 is under significant threat. If Bitcoin wants to regain its upward momentum, it is crucial to regain $66,500, and then it is crucial to target the top of the range at $73,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing indecision and may be in a downward trend, with $64,000 being a key support level. A break above this level could send Bitcoin towards the bottom of the $60,000 range.

The current Bitcoin market situation is complex, with key support level threats and historical market dynamics particularly prominent. While short-term trends appear uncertain, we should remain patient and focus on fundamentals rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Personal opinions, for reference only, follow Sanzang, and share real-time work. $BTC

BTC market morning news!
🌅 In the morning, the BTC market was in turmoil! Bitcoin started with continuous shocks, catching leveraged players off guard and evacuating for safety. Then, SOS released a large volume like a beast out of a cage, instantly breaking through the 64,000 defense line, and the market atmosphere was instantly tense! 💥
🔍 At this moment, under the attention of all, 64,000 has become a key touchstone. If it is as solid as a rock, Bitcoin will not be afraid of challenges and will go straight to the "bat shape" highland of 67,000, where there are tempting opportunities and unknown challenges! 🌟
⚠️ But the market is like a battlefield, changing rapidly. If 64,000 is lost and the downward channel is restarted, coin friends must be vigilant and quickly build a defense line. The "shock-for-fall" strategy of institutional traders not only clears leverage but also avoids air force, and its ruthless means are amazing!
📚 In summary, the BTC market is turbulent, so you need to be cautious when following the trend. Only by being flexible and keeping your positions strictly can you move forward steadily in this vast sea of ​​stars and explore unlimited possibilities! #BTC☀ #比特币政策 #市场分析

This 1D temperature map is more intuitive. The market began to rebound on November 5, rebounding until December 8, then a sharp drop for one day, followed by a gradual decline until December 22. It rebounded for two days before Christmas and then remained sluggish until January 1. On January 1, it rebounded to today #市场分析 .

Meme Exit Logic

1. Market Capitalization: The market capitalization nodes for a 'Tu Gou' (local dog) are 1m, 5m, 10m, 50m, and 100m. These can be considered as exit nodes.

2. Transactions: For on-chain projects, the short-term transaction volume has its limits. For a 'Tu G' project, when the daily transaction volume is between 5-10m, it has essentially reached the limit of short-term capital influx. (Depending on overall liquidity & sentiment, check how much trading volume top-tier MEMEs have; this can serve as a benchmark)

#市场分析

📊Bitcoin financing rate has dropped sharply, is market activity cooling down?

Bitcoin's financing rate has plummeted recently, which is a bit panicking! Once the price drops, those important on-chain indicators also slump, which is annoying to watch. If this situation continues, the price of Bitcoin is estimated to go down all the way.

We all know that the upward trend of financing rates indicates that the demand in the futures market is strong and the price is likely to rise. But now the financing rate has dropped sharply, which means that everyone is not so confident in Bitcoin. At the same time, those traders have become cautious, and the demand in the derivatives market has also weakened. If there is no such momentum to push up, the upward trend of Bitcoin will be suspended.

When Bitcoin rose before, the financing rate rose quite sharply, but now it has begun to retreat from the $108,000 position, and the financing rate has also fallen. This means that traders' enthusiasm for the market has waned, capital is not so actively flowing in, and the bullish momentum is weak. It will be difficult for Bitcoin to continue to go up.

Moreover, the current financing rate situation reflects the market's hesitation. The key is that the key point of $108,000 has not been broken. If Bitcoin is unable to hold $90,000, the situation is worrying. After investors' confidence is frustrated, the selling pressure will increase sharply, and the price will most likely continue to fall to test the lower Fibonacci level and psychological threshold. On the contrary, if the financing rate can rebound with the increase in purchasing power, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize and resume its upward trend, and the market's bullish sentiment is also expected to rekindle.

In addition to the financing rate, the unrealized profit rate of Bitcoin chain traders is also declining, which is not good. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that Bitcoin prices rose so sharply before, and it is normal to fall now. However, traders believe that the actual support price is $88,000, and the price at that time was $93,000. If it continues to adjust, the profit space in this round will become smaller and smaller.

What do you think of the recent sharp decline in the financing rate in the Bitcoin market? Do you think the Bitcoin market is about to change, or is it just a temporary fluctuation? Leave your opinions and views in the comment area!

#比特币 #市场分析 #融资利率 #链上指标 #心理支撑位

5 Laws to Observe Market Trends in Cryptocurrency:
1. Rapid rise and slow fall indicates accumulation.
A rapid increase followed by a slow decrease suggests that the market maker is accumulating shares in preparation for the next round of increases.
️2. Rapid fall and slow rise indicates distribution.
A rapid decrease followed by a slow increase means that the market maker is gradually selling off, and the market is about to enter a downward cycle.
3. Don't sell on high volume at the top, run quickly if there's low volume at the top.
High transaction volume at the top may indicate further increases; however, if transaction volume shrinks at the top, it indicates insufficient upward momentum, and one should exit quickly.
4. Don't buy on high volume at the bottom, but continuous high volume is a buy signal.
High volume at the bottom may be a continuation of the decline and requires observation; continuous high volume indicates that funds are continuously entering, which could be a buying opportunity.
5. Trading cryptocurrency is trading emotions, consensus equals transaction volume.
Market sentiment determines price fluctuations in cryptocurrency, and transaction volume reflects market consensus and investor behavior!#市场分析 #分析行情

The Federal Reserve's Shocking Turnaround!

Last night, the Federal Reserve's attitude changed dramatically, leaving global markets holding their breath. After Trump announced tariffs on automobiles, the market reacted sluggishly: U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq down 2%, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose against the trend. Meanwhile, gold and China's Shanghai Composite Index have remained unusually stable recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index peaking on March 19 and gold reaching its high the next day, with gold prices stabilizing at a high level and showing minimal fluctuations, resembling the calm before a storm.

The current market atmosphere is shrouded in gloom, with uncertain directions. The stimulating effects of economic data have weakened, and after the release of key data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, the market remained calm, indicating that the world is experiencing a shift from focusing on the big picture to paying attention to details.

Frequent internal maneuvers within the Federal Reserve, with Powell stating that inflation caused by tariffs is temporary, aiming to soothe the market. However, other Fed officials are concerned about persistent inflation, with clear divisions in internal opinions. This divergence may be the Federal Reserve intentionally releasing a balanced signal to both prevent market chaos and warn of inflation risks.

This week, discussions about interest rate cuts have changed from a reluctance to cut rates to a stance of not cutting rates for a period of time. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that the economic outlook is unclear and that a rate cut needs to wait, while St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be temporary, and maintaining the current interest rates is more prudent.

Not being in a rush to cut rates means still observing, with the timing uncertain, while stating that there will be no rate cuts for a period of time indicates that rate cuts will be shelved for the long term and will require significant events to trigger them. This is not just a play on words, but a reflection of the Federal Reserve's changing views on the economic outlook. The policy objective is no longer to pursue stability; observing comes with a cost.

As the market continues to change, we are closely monitoring the market to seize new entry opportunities.

#市场分析

The darkest moment of Dogecoin and the glimmer of light of believers

The recent sharp drop in network activity and the market unlocking tide of Dogecoin have become the focus of everyone's attention. The DOGE chain data has a comprehensive warning: the withdrawal of whales and the superposition of the unlocking tide have increased short-term risks.

DOGE's network activity has fallen to the lowest point since October 2024. Specifically, there are only 66 large transactions per day, which is nearly 88% lower than the peak. The number of active addresses has also fallen below 60,000, and the participation of retail investors has decreased significantly. In addition, the market will unlock more than 465 million US dollars in the next 7 days, and DOGE is also among them, which undoubtedly puts a lot of pressure on the market.

From a technical point of view, the MVRV ratio has a death cross, which has often heralded a sharp drop in prices in history. Although the RSI is oversold, the momentum of the rebound seems insufficient. In this case, it is recommended that everyone wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the key support level of $0.25. If it falls below this position, there may be more room for decline.

Historically, DOGE has plummeted by 26%-44% after the MVRV ratio has a death cross. Now, the technical side has sounded the red alarm. Although some people are still waiting for Musk's shouting, the risks in the market cannot be ignored.

Darkest moment? History tells us that DOGE has repeatedly "exploded after false death". The hibernation of giant whales may be the calm before the storm. Musk's tweet can ignite the market, and faith has never disappeared.

From a technical point of view, RSI is oversold and the strong support of $0.25, the opportunity may be left to the brave. Is the unlocking tide a crisis or a turning point? Perhaps it is the smoke bomb of the main force to absorb funds. At this time, faith may be more important than gold.

On-chain indicators show that whale trading volume fell 69% week-on-week, and network activity shrank 97% year-on-year. The death cross of the MVRV ratio further confirmed the bearish signal.

In terms of price trend, the current support level is $0.25. If it is lost, it may drop to $0.20. The rebound needs to break through the 50-day moving average resistance of $0.332. Derivatives signals cannot be ignored either. The surge in option trading volume by 79% indicates an outbreak of volatility.

In general, the long-short game of DOGE has intensified, and the short-term direction needs to be broken. In this uncertain market, it is most important to stay calm and rational and do a good job of risk management.
#加密货币 #DOGE #市场分析 #投资风险

Bitcoin fell back after breaking through the short-term resistance level yesterday, which confirms my speculation and prediction.

It can be seen that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a severe lack of trading volume. Since the expectations for interest rate cuts from a few days ago have subsided, there isn't much significant news to influence Bitcoin's trend, apart from Trump's comments.

Therefore, the weekend should mainly focus on volatility. If by the end of Monday's weekly close, the price does not drop below 82,000, Bitcoin will likely continue to rebound upwards, and this price could very likely break and stabilize above 85,000, likely reaching around 88,000.

However, a reversal trend has still not appeared; it remains in a downward trend. From a higher perspective, it is still in a downtrend. Since the White House crypto summit, the crypto market has been severely lacking in funds. We should pay close attention to the position around 81,200 below, and the position near 88,000 above. These two positions are excellent for both long and short trades.

💸 Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin ETF has seen outflows exceeding $3.6 billion, with BTC dropping below $83,000! 📉

In the past three weeks, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market has experienced large-scale capital outflows totaling over $3.6 billion! In the 12 trading days since February 10, there was only one day with an inflow of $66.2 million, while the rest of the time saw frantic withdrawals.

On February 25, the Bitcoin spot ETF market recorded the largest single-day outflow in history, with outflows reaching $1.138 billion! Among them, Fidelity's FBTC topped the list with an outflow of $344.7 million, followed closely by BlackRock's IBIT with $164.4 million.

In comparison, Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust ETF BTC also saw an outflow of $85.8 million on the same day. In contrast, VanEck's HODL had the lowest outflow of only $10 million.

Even more astonishing is that IBIT set a new single-day outflow record of $418 million on February 26, breaking the previous record of maximum outflow from January 2. Ark Invest's ARKB and CoinShares Valkyrie's BRRR also saw outflows of $126 million and $100 million, respectively.

As the ETF outflows intensified, the market price of Bitcoin was also impacted, falling below $83,000 for the first time in over three months. Although BTC slightly rebounded from an intraday drop of over 8% this week, as of the time of writing, the price still hovers around $82,500.

In summary, these outflows reflect investors' uncertainty about the current market, especially in light of significant negative volatility in Bitcoin prices. Whether the market can regain confidence in the coming weeks will determine if Bitcoin continues to decline or experiences a rebound.

💬 What do you think? Are the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs a signal of market adjustment, or a new opportunity for long-term value investment? Would you choose to buy the dip or continue to wait and see? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

#比特币ETF #资金流出 #BTC #加密货币 #市场分析

As I drive my truck across the vast highways, I always think about how to find the next opportunity in the cryptocurrency market. Today, my eyes are set on $BONK .

The RSI indicator is rising, and the market is about to reach a critical moment. There is a high position around 0.0549, while the 200 moving average on the current H4 chart and the last move's VWAP are both above. Such technical signals have led me to decide to fully invest in $BONK , with a target price aimed higher.

Want to learn more market insights? Follow me, and let's move forward together on this path to wealth! #加密货币 #市场分析

$BONK $BTC $ETH #加密沙皇 #比特币重返10W大关 #币安将上市ACX、ORCA

Just now, the US government transferred another 299.95 ETH.
For the market, this may bring some potential impacts:

1. **Market volatility**: Such a large transfer often triggers short-term market volatility, especially when the market is worried that these ETH may be sold

2. **Market sentiment**: Market participants will try to interpret the government's intentions and speculate whether the transfer of these ETH is related to legal cases, auctions or other actions

3. **Increased trading volume**: If these ETH are sold, it may lead to increased trading volume, which in turn affects the liquidity and price of ETH

4. **Long-term impact**: If this transfer involves long-term holding or government auctions, it may have an impact on the long-term price of the market, but the specific situation depends on how the market digests this information
In general, the market's reaction will depend on the background of the transfer and the interpretation and behavior of market participants.

I think the probability of shorting in the United States is very high. Everyone must be careful when entering the market. It is deceiving us to buy the bottom again.
What do you think of this transfer? Welcome to comment and share your views!

#加密货币课程 #以太坊 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #市场分析 #美国政府