市场分析

6.20 Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently a very standard triangle convergence. The current rebound is in line with expectations. Focus on the range of around 108000-103400.
Ethereum (ETH): Following Bitcoin, focus on the range of around 2470-2630.
[Market Analysis]
Affected by the US stock market closure and the lack of major data-driven influences, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintained low volatility yesterday, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. Currently, the rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum lacks height because the market is worried about the expansion of the Israel-Iran situation. Media reports that Trump will decide whether to send troops to Iran within 2 weeks. If Trump announces participation in the war, it is expected to trigger a wave of risk aversion decline.
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
Although the situation between Israel and Iran has attracted market attention, the US stock market's reaction has been flat, while the cryptocurrency market's short-term volatility has intensified, highlighting that BTC's attribute as a "safe-haven asset" has not been effectively verified. The market logic shows that geopolitical conflicts have not substantially impacted the liquidity of US stocks, while the crypto market sentiment is easily disturbed by short-term news.
The traditional off-season characteristics of June-August each year are showing, and the market presents a high-frequency mode of "shock + false breakthrough". From a trading rhythm perspective, the BTC pullback range is narrowing, and the rebound space is compressed, reflecting a decrease in fund activity, and both long and short sides are in a stalemate.
Spot side: The premium trend shows that the buying momentum is exhausted, the inflow of funds is slowing down, and the market lacks continuous buying support.
Contract side: The long-short ratio has rebounded, and the optimistic sentiment of leveraged funds has heated up, but the shrinking spot liquidity implies that contracts may dominate the short-term false breakthrough market, and we need to be vigilant against the risk of long liquidation.
Spot is a real chip transaction, and contracts are leveraged bubbles. This in turn illustrates one thing: the next high probability is that contract control will create a false breakthrough.
Today's Important Events Preview
14:40 Governor of the Bank of Japan gives a speech at the Trust Association, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of monetary policy statements on the liquidity of the Asia-Pacific market.
23:00 (Beijing time): Trump convenes the US National Security Council. If it involves escalating rhetoric on the Iran situation, it may trigger fluctuations in market risk aversion sentiment.
Trading Strategies and Risks Continue in the Next Chapter

If a war breaks out in the Middle East, Bitcoin may experience significant short-term fluctuations, but in the medium term, its trend needs to be analyzed based on multiple influencing factors:

⚡ Short-term panic drop (higher probability)
Risk asset nature: In the early stages of war, market panic spreads, and Bitcoin, as a high-volatility asset, is often sold off for cash or gold. For example, on the day Russia and Ukraine went to war in 2022, BTC plummeted by 10%.

Liquidity crisis: If the conflict drives up oil prices and triggers global inflation, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may rise, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets, which would drag down Bitcoin.

🛡️ Medium-term hedging attribute may dominate
Demand for fiat currency alternatives: If the war leads to capital controls in the Middle East or local fiat currency devaluation, Bitcoin may become a "digital escape route." For instance, during the Russia-Ukraine war, the fiat currency purchase volume of BTC in Ukraine and Russia surged by 3-8 times.

Acceleration of de-dollarization:
War may weaken the dollar's credibility or lead to a break in the sanctions chain, causing capital to turn to Bitcoin to hedge against sovereign currency risks.

⚖️ Key variables
Scale of the war: Local conflicts, such as limited exchanges of fire with Iran, are beneficial for BTC; a full-scale war leading to nuclear threats would be detrimental.

#市场分析
U.S. policy: If the Trump administration seizes the opportunity to promote "cheap troop withdrawals, weakening U.S. military presence in the Middle East, or strengthening Bitcoin's position as a safe haven.

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Afternoon thoughts, the big cake is currently 1200 points, and the second cake is 50 points. Those who are cautious can go to Lodi first. #市场分析

🔥 RPL Single-Day Surge of 29%: Full Analysis of Opportunities and Risks

1. News: Triple Drivers and Potential Risks

Liquid Staking Track Explodes

Direct Catalyst: The anticipation for the ETH Cancun upgrade heats up, leading to a surge in staking demand and a broad rise in decentralized protocol tokens. RPL, as a leading liquid staking project in the Ethereum ecosystem, saw a single-day increase of 29% (current price: $7.22), with similar tokens like SSV and LDO rising over 10%.

Long-term Logic: The Ethereum staking rate has exceeded 45%, nearing saturation. RPL needs to attract more users through technical upgrades (such as lowering the staking threshold for ETH nodes) to unleash growth potential.

Competition and Regulatory Risks

Industry Landscape: Competitors Lido and Prysm hold 90% market share, and RPL needs to rely on the differentiated positioning of "non-custodial staking" to break through.

Policy Risk: The SEC's regulatory stance on staking tokens remains unclear. If deemed securities, it may trigger a sell-off. Historical data shows that regulatory news has previously caused RPL to plummet 6% in a single day.

Divergence in Institutional Perspectives

Conservatives (Binance, CoinCodex): Expect a year-end target price of $5.22-$5.37, believing the short-term rise has exhausted momentum.

Optimists (CoinCheckup): Bullish up to $63.38, betting on the Ethereum ecosystem explosion driving RPL's technical upgrades and market share increase.

2. Technical Analysis: Key Signals and Offensive-Defensive Strategies

Key Price Levels in Long-Short Tug-of-War

Support Level: $7.80-$8.00 (if broken, may test $7.60);
Resistance Level: $8.50 (a breakthrough will open the channel towards $9.50).

Volume and Fund Trends

Surge in Trading Volume: 24-hour trading volume reached $2.95 million, hitting a new monthly high, but caution is needed for the risk of main players offloading on positive news.

Whale Movements: A sale of $1.82 million RPL by a certain address in early June caused a flash crash in coin price, highlighting the vulnerability of small-cap tokens.

Technical Strategy Reference

Bullish Alignment Buy on Pullback: If the price pulls back to the 10-day moving average (currently around $7.15) and stabilizes above the 20-day moving average, it can be seen as a buying opportunity (refer to moving average strategy); Stop-Loss Setting: Strict stop-loss should be set below $7.60 to guard against trend reversal risk.
#市场分析
$RPL Crypto Insights, click my profile to follow me

Recently, liquidity has been declining, trading volume has sharply decreased, and there is an extreme lack of active capital. Except for #Meme幣 , other sectors are very disgusting. However, playing with #meme will involve greater risks, and the chances of making money are extremely low. Will things really get better after the election? I don't know. I only know that mainstream cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH are facing the challenge of drying up liquidity. The wealth creation effect in the entire market is increasingly diminishing. This place used to be full of opportunities for a comeback, but now it is developing into a casino. It has been four or five days without any operations. I hope the market makers can pump the market to help me regain some confidence. #币圈新机遇 #区块链 #市场分析

#比特币 #市场分析 #投资策略 #市场动态
Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis: Critical Support Level Faces Threat

The recent price action of Bitcoin has made investors nervous. Despite the recent gains in Bitcoin, the break below $65,000 still highlights a critical threshold. According to the weekly chart, Bitcoin is oscillating around $64,000, which is a potential risk area. As the price of Bitcoin hovers below the key level, a downward trend may occur.

Bitcoin loses support and faces potential downside. Bitcoin has lost the intermediate support level of $66,500, and the support level of $64,000 is under significant threat. If Bitcoin wants to regain its upward momentum, it is crucial to regain $66,500, and then it is crucial to target the top of the range at $73,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing indecision and may be in a downward trend, with $64,000 being a key support level. A break above this level could send Bitcoin towards the bottom of the $60,000 range.

The current Bitcoin market situation is complex, with key support level threats and historical market dynamics particularly prominent. While short-term trends appear uncertain, we should remain patient and focus on fundamentals rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Personal opinions, for reference only, follow Sanzang, and share real-time work. $BTC

BTC market morning news!
🌅 In the morning, the BTC market was in turmoil! Bitcoin started with continuous shocks, catching leveraged players off guard and evacuating for safety. Then, SOS released a large volume like a beast out of a cage, instantly breaking through the 64,000 defense line, and the market atmosphere was instantly tense! 💥
🔍 At this moment, under the attention of all, 64,000 has become a key touchstone. If it is as solid as a rock, Bitcoin will not be afraid of challenges and will go straight to the "bat shape" highland of 67,000, where there are tempting opportunities and unknown challenges! 🌟
⚠️ But the market is like a battlefield, changing rapidly. If 64,000 is lost and the downward channel is restarted, coin friends must be vigilant and quickly build a defense line. The "shock-for-fall" strategy of institutional traders not only clears leverage but also avoids air force, and its ruthless means are amazing!
📚 In summary, the BTC market is turbulent, so you need to be cautious when following the trend. Only by being flexible and keeping your positions strictly can you move forward steadily in this vast sea of ​​stars and explore unlimited possibilities! #BTC☀ #比特币政策 #市场分析

This 1D temperature map is more intuitive. The market began to rebound on November 5, rebounding until December 8, then a sharp drop for one day, followed by a gradual decline until December 22. It rebounded for two days before Christmas and then remained sluggish until January 1. On January 1, it rebounded to today #市场分析 .

Meme Exit Logic

1. Market Capitalization: The market capitalization nodes for a 'Tu Gou' (local dog) are 1m, 5m, 10m, 50m, and 100m. These can be considered as exit nodes.

2. Transactions: For on-chain projects, the short-term transaction volume has its limits. For a 'Tu G' project, when the daily transaction volume is between 5-10m, it has essentially reached the limit of short-term capital influx. (Depending on overall liquidity & sentiment, check how much trading volume top-tier MEMEs have; this can serve as a benchmark)

#市场分析

ALT is listed on#Binanceand has increased by 5200%, reaching as high as $0.33!

Tracking the addresses on the chain, here are some findings

The total amount of $ALT is 10B, and the circulating supply is 1.1B

1/The top ten currency holding addresses hold a total of 9,915,694,531 $ALT , accounting for 99.15% of the total!

2/Addresses tagged#Binancehold a total of 277,842,597 $ALT , accounting for 25.2% of the circulating supply. Binance may become the largest banker in $ALT !

3/The 13th currency holding address is the largest airdrop address and has not been transferred yet!

4/sungjae.eth is an airdrop hunter who received 421,187 $ALT airdrops! Deposited 20k $ALT into#Binance2 hours ago!

If you are interested in airdrops, you can use them as tracking objects!
#ALT#Binance #市场分析

🚀 Bitcoin's road to a new high is blocked, and analysts tell you the reasons behind it!

🧐 Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering between $55,000 and $65,000, and it seems a bit difficult to break through the $70,000 mark. So, analysts from IntoTheBlock gave some interesting insights!

📉 Why is it difficult for the price to break through? The reason is that many Bitcoin traders bought BTC in the price range of $61,700 to $70,500, but now the price is around $56,500, which means they are all losing money. So, if the price rises back to this range, there may be a lot of people who want to sell quickly to reduce losses or at least break even.

🔄 Therefore, analysts from IntoTheBlock said that whenever a large number of traders lose money, the price of Bitcoin will face selling pressure when it approaches their purchase level, which is why Bitcoin has difficulty breaking through this price range!

📊 What does historical data say? Historically, September is usually not a good month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has fallen in September in six of the past seven years, with an average drop of 4.5%. Moreover, September this year did not start well, with the price falling from $60,000 to $55,000.

🌐 At the same time, analysts also mentioned some other factors that may affect the price of Bitcoin, such as market consolidation after Bitcoin halving, uncertainty in the US election, large amounts of Bitcoin held by the government, and the upcoming asset distribution to Mt. Gox creditors.

🐋 Despite the challenges, Bitcoin's on-chain data shows positive signs. The number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC has reached a 17-month high, which means that large investors are buying on dips and may be preparing for a rebound at the end of the year.

💬 What do you think about the current market conditions and future trends of Bitcoin? Do you think Bitcoin can break through the current resistance and set new highs after the interest rate cut in September? Leave your insights in the comment section!

#比特币 #市场分析 #加密货币趋势 #IntoTheBlock

📊Bitcoin financing rate has dropped sharply, is market activity cooling down?

Bitcoin's financing rate has plummeted recently, which is a bit panicking! Once the price drops, those important on-chain indicators also slump, which is annoying to watch. If this situation continues, the price of Bitcoin is estimated to go down all the way.

We all know that the upward trend of financing rates indicates that the demand in the futures market is strong and the price is likely to rise. But now the financing rate has dropped sharply, which means that everyone is not so confident in Bitcoin. At the same time, those traders have become cautious, and the demand in the derivatives market has also weakened. If there is no such momentum to push up, the upward trend of Bitcoin will be suspended.

When Bitcoin rose before, the financing rate rose quite sharply, but now it has begun to retreat from the $108,000 position, and the financing rate has also fallen. This means that traders' enthusiasm for the market has waned, capital is not so actively flowing in, and the bullish momentum is weak. It will be difficult for Bitcoin to continue to go up.

Moreover, the current financing rate situation reflects the market's hesitation. The key is that the key point of $108,000 has not been broken. If Bitcoin is unable to hold $90,000, the situation is worrying. After investors' confidence is frustrated, the selling pressure will increase sharply, and the price will most likely continue to fall to test the lower Fibonacci level and psychological threshold. On the contrary, if the financing rate can rebound with the increase in purchasing power, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize and resume its upward trend, and the market's bullish sentiment is also expected to rekindle.

In addition to the financing rate, the unrealized profit rate of Bitcoin chain traders is also declining, which is not good. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that Bitcoin prices rose so sharply before, and it is normal to fall now. However, traders believe that the actual support price is $88,000, and the price at that time was $93,000. If it continues to adjust, the profit space in this round will become smaller and smaller.

What do you think of the recent sharp decline in the financing rate in the Bitcoin market? Do you think the Bitcoin market is about to change, or is it just a temporary fluctuation? Leave your opinions and views in the comment area!

#比特币 #市场分析 #融资利率 #链上指标 #心理支撑位

Hey, friends! The recent market is really confusing. The bull market has been going on for three months, and everyone is still talking about those old coins, such as XRP, ADA, and LTC. UNI, CRV, ENA, USUAL, and DYDX in the DEFI sector are also being discussed crazily. What about the AI ​​sector? Although most retail investors' money is here, few people mention WLD, IO, FET, and RENDER. L2, modular chains, and game tokens are even less popular.

So, what stage is the market in? From the logic of the big bull market, does the sector rotation come to DEFI? These coins are too old, and even newcomers don't look at them. To what extent does it have to rise to attract the attention of leeks and let them start to take over?

As a community, we have our own investment research team, strong on-chain data analysis capabilities, master the capital trends of large investors, track the position building trends of Wall Street institutions, and escort everyone's transactions. In this round of rise, we led fans to layout projects such as SAGA, ETHFI, SOL, BNB, TIA, BOME, and WLD, all of which have made profits.

Next Monday, we will lead fans to layout explosive potential coins, and it is not difficult to double. The same news, the same layout, the same opportunity, the team is prioritized.

I have bought $SOL , $BNB , and $WLD in full positions. It is not a dream to double the target price! #投资策略 #市场分析

Don't forget to like, follow, and forward, so that more people can join our team! #PENGU开盘 #美联储放鹰 #市场调整後的机会？

Bitcoin fell back after breaking through the short-term resistance level yesterday, which confirms my speculation and prediction.

It can be seen that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a severe lack of trading volume. Since the expectations for interest rate cuts from a few days ago have subsided, there isn't much significant news to influence Bitcoin's trend, apart from Trump's comments.

Therefore, the weekend should mainly focus on volatility. If by the end of Monday's weekly close, the price does not drop below 82,000, Bitcoin will likely continue to rebound upwards, and this price could very likely break and stabilize above 85,000, likely reaching around 88,000.

However, a reversal trend has still not appeared; it remains in a downward trend. From a higher perspective, it is still in a downtrend. Since the White House crypto summit, the crypto market has been severely lacking in funds. We should pay close attention to the position around 81,200 below, and the position near 88,000 above. These two positions are excellent for both long and short trades.

As I drive my truck across the vast highways, I always think about how to find the next opportunity in the cryptocurrency market. Today, my eyes are set on $BONK .

The RSI indicator is rising, and the market is about to reach a critical moment. There is a high position around 0.0549, while the 200 moving average on the current H4 chart and the last move's VWAP are both above. Such technical signals have led me to decide to fully invest in $BONK , with a target price aimed higher.

Want to learn more market insights? Follow me, and let's move forward together on this path to wealth! #加密货币 #市场分析

$BONK $BTC $ETH #加密沙皇 #比特币重返10W大关 #币安将上市ACX、ORCA