Hello everyone: I am Crypto Ziqing.
Key: Without time-based resonance, it is definitely not in the direction of the trend.
The focus of technical analysis lies in two aspects: first, the trend resonance across various time frames; second, divergences and breakthroughs. The mutual verification of breakthroughs and trends, along with the resonance across different time frames, is the key to improving winning chances. Understanding the six words of resonance, divergence, and breakthrough is to grasp the essence of technical analysis.
About Resonance:
① The weekly trend represents the major trend for the medium to long term, determined not by speculators but by fundamentals. If you cannot understand the cycles and macro situations of major commodities such as the US dollar, gold, crude oil, and London copper, do not engage in long-term operations; if you cannot hold on, you are likely to incur losses.
② Daily charts can observe the medium-term trend over one week to one month. If you understand it, you can become an expert in overnight trading.
③ The hourly, fifteen-minute, and five-minute charts are the compass for short-term trading. For intraday trading, there's no need to look at the fundamentals; just strictly execute the trading system.
Of course, the premise is to have a high-probability trading system that can withstand the test of time and market conditions.
④ Use long time frames to define volatility ranges and major directions, and use short time frames to find entry and exit points, which is known as looking at the big picture while operating on the small scale, finding small trends within the larger trend.
About overnight trading: You can use weekly charts to define volatility ranges, daily charts to judge trading trends, and hourly and minute charts to choose entry and exit points. The trends for the daily and weekly charts must be the same for a high-probability overnight trading opportunity.
About intraday trading: You can use daily charts to define volatility ranges, combine 60-minute and 15-minute charts to judge trading trends, and use 5-minute charts to choose entry and exit points. The trends for the 15-minute and 60-minute charts must be the same for a high-probability intraday trading opportunity.
About divergence and breakthroughs.
① All major level reversal trends must have divergences. However, the appearance of divergence does not necessarily mean a reversal; it may diverge again after the first divergence. Confirmation of divergence means the formation of a reversal.
② Divergence only represents a weakening of the original trend, not a trend reversal. If divergence cannot be validated by a trend breakthrough, it is not a good entry opportunity or high-probability trading opportunity; discussing divergence without a trend breakthrough can lead to technical traps.
③ The longer the time frame of the divergence, the more reliable it is. Divergence on daily and weekly charts is already a highly reliable signal. If it is also validated by a trend line breakthrough, the winning rate can be greatly increased.
④ There are many types of divergence: divergence between indicators and prices, divergence between volume and price, moving average divergence, and divergence between fundamentals and technicals. However, the key is to understand the internal mechanism behind the formation of divergence, not just the quantity.
⑤ Volume-price divergence is very important. When trading volume expands abnormally, it is a good entry opportunity, but do not stand against the trend.
Trinitarian collaborative strategy.
Resonance provides direction, divergence warns of risks, and breakthroughs confirm timing. The dynamic balance of these three components constitutes a complete trading loop:
Trend continuation model.
Weekly EMA120 upward (resonance) → Daily MACD golden cross above zero axis (breakthrough) → Hourly volume and price rise together (no divergence).
Trend reversal model.
Monthly KDJ top divergence (warning) → Weekly breaks below ascending channel (breakthrough) → Daily volume drops 30% suddenly (volume-price divergence).
Oscillation breakthrough model.
Bollinger Bands narrow to within 15% of one year’s volatility (accumulation) → Breakthrough when RSI > 70 and no divergence appears (sufficient momentum) → Weekly EMA7 crosses above EMA30 (resonance).
The essence of technical analysis is the quantitative tracking of market consensus. Resonance is the resonance of collective will, divergence is the prelude to energy conversion, and breakthroughs break the balance of bulls and bears. Investors need to establish a three-dimensional perspective:
1. Filter out 70% of noise using resonance;
2. Capture 20% of reversals using divergence;
3. Use breakthroughs to grasp 10% of the main upward wave.
Note: The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.#市场分析