News-driven Factors
Delayed Technical Upgrades and Ecological Pressure
The Ethereum Pectra mainnet upgrade has been postponed to Q3 due to vulnerabilities in the testnet, weakening market confidence in short-term performance improvements.
With public chains like Solana diverting users with low Gas fees ($0.001 per transaction), Ethereum's DeFi locked value ratio has dropped to 32%, intensifying ecological competition.
Macroeconomics and Policy Shocks
The expectation for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve has cooled (probability 72%), the strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets; the EU MiCA bill enforces stricter compliance requirements, limiting short-term liquidity. At the same time, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to a new low for the year (0.0238), concentrating funds towards BTC and increasing selling pressure on ETH.
Leverage Liquidation Chain Reaction
After ETH price broke below the key support of $2,450, it triggered liquidation risks on on-chain lending platforms (such as Aave) and exchange contracts, with a potential liquidation scale exceeding $336 million, causing a "sell-off-liquidation" spiral.
Technical Analysis
Indicator Signals Deteriorating
The 4-hour MACD death cross is widening, RSI has dropped to 42 (close to oversold), and the lower Bollinger band has broken, indicating bearish momentum dominance. The daily level has formed a "cup and handle" pattern with the neckline support lost, and the short-term target has shifted down to $2,500.
Key Support and Liquidity Risks
$2,450-$2,500 is the intersection of the on-chain liquidation threshold and the 20-day moving average; if it falls further below $2,400, it may trigger a larger-scale sell-off; resistance above at $2,600-$2,700 needs to be broken with volume to reverse the downtrend.
Market Outlook
Short-term (1-2 weeks): If ETH holds the $2,400 support, combined with progress on the Pectra upgrade testnet (launched June 12), it may trigger a technical rebound, targeting $2,600-$2,800. However, uncertainties in Federal Reserve policy and liquidation risks still suppress rebound potential.
Medium-term (1-3 months): The launch of the Pectra mainnet will enhance transaction processing capacity to 90 TPS, reduce Gas fees, and attract institutional capital inflows (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL fund has exceeded $3 billion). If it breaks through $3,000, it may initiate a rising cycle to $3,500-$4,100.
Strategy Suggestions: In the short term, focus on the validity of the $2,400 support; if it breaks, short accordingly; if a rebound breaks $2,600, consider small long positions, with a stop loss at $2,550. In the medium term, look to accumulate on dips, focusing on technical upgrades and institutional trends.
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