BTC today's trend analysis
Change in points: -1,500 points (-3.8%)
Current quote: $38,000
News-driven factors
US CPI inflation exceeds expectations
This morning, the US March CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year (expected 3.4%), reinforcing expectations for Fed rate hikes, leading to a spike in the dollar index and pressure on risk assets.
Grayscale GBTC continuous outflow
Single-day net outflow of $210 million, hitting a new high for the month, increasing selling pressure and market panic.
Key technical signals
Resistance level ineffective:
Daily line breaks key support at $39,000 (lower bound of previous consolidation range), triggering long stop-loss orders.
Indicators deteriorate:
RSI falls to 35 (entering the oversold zone), but MACD death cross expands, with trading volume increasing to a monthly average of 150%, dominated by bears.
Market outlook
Short-term (1-3 days):
Focus on support at $37,200 (200-day moving average); if broken, may dip to $36,000.
A rebound needs to stabilize above $38,800 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level), otherwise, maintain a bearish trend.
Medium-term (1-2 weeks):
Bearish factors: Macro interest rate hike expectations suppress, funds flow into safe-haven assets;
Potential positives: The Bitcoin halving narrative on April 20 is approaching, which may attract buying on dips.
Strategy suggestion:
Short-term wait and see; confirm the effectiveness of the $37,200 support before positioning; medium-term investors can build positions in batches, being wary of macro data disturbances.
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