阿江ber
保持学习｜合约交流行情分析｜分享市场看法｜web3实习生一枚｜
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6.20 Strategy and Risk Analysis
Trading Strategy Recommendations
Focus on range trading, selling high and buying low
Bullish Opportunity: If the price touches the support zone of 103,400-104,100 USDT, consider taking a small long position, aiming for 106,000 USDT, with a stop loss set below 103,000 USDT.
Bearish Opportunity: If it rebounds to the resistance zone of 107,000-108,000 USDT, consider placing a short position, aiming for 105,000 USDT, with a stop loss at 108,500 USDT.
Risk Warning
Be vigilant about the concentrated liquidity zones in the futures market (107K shorts, below 102K longs) that could trigger liquidations; position sizes should be controlled during increased volatility. The liquidity map is filled with short liquidity at 107K, and it has also started to build below 102K. Given the market's recent behavior, it is highly likely that there will be a liquidation first today; significant fluctuations without movement could indicate a problem.
Geopolitical news may trigger false breakouts; it is recommended to verify trends by combining spot premiums and capital flows to avoid chasing highs and selling lows.
Summary
The current market is in a vacuum period of "capital withdrawal + cautious sentiment," making it difficult to see a trending market in the short term. Operations should adapt to a "cautious" rhythm, focusing on range trading while paying attention to key events that may disturb sentiment, and preventing wash trading risks under futures control. #策略 #BTC走势分析 #我的交易风格 #波段交易策略 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Trading Strategy Recommendations
Focus on range trading, selling high and buying low
Bullish Opportunity: If the price touches the support zone of 103,400-104,100 USDT, consider taking a small long position, aiming for 106,000 USDT, with a stop loss set below 103,000 USDT.
Bearish Opportunity: If it rebounds to the resistance zone of 107,000-108,000 USDT, consider placing a short position, aiming for 105,000 USDT, with a stop loss at 108,500 USDT.
Risk Warning
Be vigilant about the concentrated liquidity zones in the futures market (107K shorts, below 102K longs) that could trigger liquidations; position sizes should be controlled during increased volatility. The liquidity map is filled with short liquidity at 107K, and it has also started to build below 102K. Given the market's recent behavior, it is highly likely that there will be a liquidation first today; significant fluctuations without movement could indicate a problem.
Geopolitical news may trigger false breakouts; it is recommended to verify trends by combining spot premiums and capital flows to avoid chasing highs and selling lows.
Summary
The current market is in a vacuum period of "capital withdrawal + cautious sentiment," making it difficult to see a trending market in the short term. Operations should adapt to a "cautious" rhythm, focusing on range trading while paying attention to key events that may disturb sentiment, and preventing wash trading risks under futures control. #策略 #BTC走势分析 #我的交易风格 #波段交易策略 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
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6.20 Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently a very standard triangle convergence. The current rebound is in line with expectations. Focus on the range of around 108000-103400.
Ethereum (ETH): Following Bitcoin, focus on the range of around 2470-2630.
[Market Analysis]
Affected by the US stock market closure and the lack of major data-driven influences, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintained low volatility yesterday, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. Currently, the rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum lacks height because the market is worried about the expansion of the Israel-Iran situation. Media reports that Trump will decide whether to send troops to Iran within 2 weeks. If Trump announces participation in the war, it is expected to trigger a wave of risk aversion decline.
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
Although the situation between Israel and Iran has attracted market attention, the US stock market's reaction has been flat, while the cryptocurrency market's short-term volatility has intensified, highlighting that BTC's attribute as a "safe-haven asset" has not been effectively verified. The market logic shows that geopolitical conflicts have not substantially impacted the liquidity of US stocks, while the crypto market sentiment is easily disturbed by short-term news.
The traditional off-season characteristics of June-August each year are showing, and the market presents a high-frequency mode of "shock + false breakthrough". From a trading rhythm perspective, the BTC pullback range is narrowing, and the rebound space is compressed, reflecting a decrease in fund activity, and both long and short sides are in a stalemate.
Spot side: The premium trend shows that the buying momentum is exhausted, the inflow of funds is slowing down, and the market lacks continuous buying support.
Contract side: The long-short ratio has rebounded, and the optimistic sentiment of leveraged funds has heated up, but the shrinking spot liquidity implies that contracts may dominate the short-term false breakthrough market, and we need to be vigilant against the risk of long liquidation.
Spot is a real chip transaction, and contracts are leveraged bubbles. This in turn illustrates one thing: the next high probability is that contract control will create a false breakthrough.
Today's Important Events Preview
14:40 Governor of the Bank of Japan gives a speech at the Trust Association, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of monetary policy statements on the liquidity of the Asia-Pacific market.
23:00 (Beijing time): Trump convenes the US National Security Council. If it involves escalating rhetoric on the Iran situation, it may trigger fluctuations in market risk aversion sentiment.
Trading Strategies and Risks Continue in the Next Chapter
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently a very standard triangle convergence. The current rebound is in line with expectations. Focus on the range of around 108000-103400.
Ethereum (ETH): Following Bitcoin, focus on the range of around 2470-2630.
[Market Analysis]
Affected by the US stock market closure and the lack of major data-driven influences, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintained low volatility yesterday, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. Currently, the rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum lacks height because the market is worried about the expansion of the Israel-Iran situation. Media reports that Trump will decide whether to send troops to Iran within 2 weeks. If Trump announces participation in the war, it is expected to trigger a wave of risk aversion decline.
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
Although the situation between Israel and Iran has attracted market attention, the US stock market's reaction has been flat, while the cryptocurrency market's short-term volatility has intensified, highlighting that BTC's attribute as a "safe-haven asset" has not been effectively verified. The market logic shows that geopolitical conflicts have not substantially impacted the liquidity of US stocks, while the crypto market sentiment is easily disturbed by short-term news.
The traditional off-season characteristics of June-August each year are showing, and the market presents a high-frequency mode of "shock + false breakthrough". From a trading rhythm perspective, the BTC pullback range is narrowing, and the rebound space is compressed, reflecting a decrease in fund activity, and both long and short sides are in a stalemate.
Spot side: The premium trend shows that the buying momentum is exhausted, the inflow of funds is slowing down, and the market lacks continuous buying support.
Contract side: The long-short ratio has rebounded, and the optimistic sentiment of leveraged funds has heated up, but the shrinking spot liquidity implies that contracts may dominate the short-term false breakthrough market, and we need to be vigilant against the risk of long liquidation.
Spot is a real chip transaction, and contracts are leveraged bubbles. This in turn illustrates one thing: the next high probability is that contract control will create a false breakthrough.
Today's Important Events Preview
14:40 Governor of the Bank of Japan gives a speech at the Trust Association, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of monetary policy statements on the liquidity of the Asia-Pacific market.
23:00 (Beijing time): Trump convenes the US National Security Council. If it involves escalating rhetoric on the Iran situation, it may trigger fluctuations in market risk aversion sentiment.
Trading Strategies and Risks Continue in the Next Chapter
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The rise of the large pancake and the second pancake this afternoon can be said to be as expected, late but arrived. The first two candlesticks are the recent screenshots, and the last two are screenshots from the previous article. Friends can take a look at the article from the day before yesterday, and follow me for today's market analysis.
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ETH Trend Analysis
Key Events and Impact Logic in the News
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2 AM today):
Core Logic: If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates (expected small reduction of 25 basis points), it is seen as a positive signal, potentially pushing BTC towards the 110,000 mark;
If interest rates remain unchanged, attention should be paid to the evolution of the U.S. debt crisis: an escalation in U.S. debt issues could trigger a depreciation of the dollar's credit, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency market; if the Federal Reserve and Musk (through market means) resolve the U.S. debt issue, it could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.
Geopolitical Connections: If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, U.S. financial resources may struggle to support it, potentially accelerating peace talks; short-term geopolitical risks may trigger market volatility, but historical experience shows that sharp declines are often followed by rebounds.
Interpretation: This week's interest rate decision is the decisive factor; everything is interconnected. If the Federal Reserve can cooperate with Trump on interest rate cuts, then the bull market continues, but given the current environment, a significant cut seems unlikely; any reduction would likely be minor or maintain the status quo.
If interest rates do not decrease, then the U.S. debt crisis will worsen. If the debt issue cannot be resolved, it could likely trigger a dollar credit crisis leading to a depreciation of the dollar, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency market, which may rise, but without the Federal Reserve's intervention, Musk could help navigate the crisis, which explains why Musk dared to publicly criticize Trump before.
If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, but the debt issue is perfectly resolved, then it would be indirectly negative for the cryptocurrency market.
Furthermore, if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, U.S. financial resources may be insufficient to sustain this regional war, thus seeking peace talks with Iran.
Currently, the U.S. debt situation depends on the Federal Reserve, Musk, and the trajectory of the war; tonight, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's stance.
However, the Federal Reserve may not necessarily lend support, as they are opposing political parties; even if they do cut rates, it is expected to be just 25 basis points, which is not substantial. If it is negative, then rates would remain unchanged, and the possibility of an increase is low.
Resistance and Support, Long and Short Positions
Resistance around 2558
After breaking upward, pay attention to resistance around 2656
Support around 2462
After breaking downward, pay attention to support around 2380 #我的交易风格 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Key Events and Impact Logic in the News
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2 AM today):
Core Logic: If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates (expected small reduction of 25 basis points), it is seen as a positive signal, potentially pushing BTC towards the 110,000 mark;
If interest rates remain unchanged, attention should be paid to the evolution of the U.S. debt crisis: an escalation in U.S. debt issues could trigger a depreciation of the dollar's credit, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency market; if the Federal Reserve and Musk (through market means) resolve the U.S. debt issue, it could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.
Geopolitical Connections: If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, U.S. financial resources may struggle to support it, potentially accelerating peace talks; short-term geopolitical risks may trigger market volatility, but historical experience shows that sharp declines are often followed by rebounds.
Interpretation: This week's interest rate decision is the decisive factor; everything is interconnected. If the Federal Reserve can cooperate with Trump on interest rate cuts, then the bull market continues, but given the current environment, a significant cut seems unlikely; any reduction would likely be minor or maintain the status quo.
If interest rates do not decrease, then the U.S. debt crisis will worsen. If the debt issue cannot be resolved, it could likely trigger a dollar credit crisis leading to a depreciation of the dollar, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency market, which may rise, but without the Federal Reserve's intervention, Musk could help navigate the crisis, which explains why Musk dared to publicly criticize Trump before.
If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, but the debt issue is perfectly resolved, then it would be indirectly negative for the cryptocurrency market.
Furthermore, if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, U.S. financial resources may be insufficient to sustain this regional war, thus seeking peace talks with Iran.
Currently, the U.S. debt situation depends on the Federal Reserve, Musk, and the trajectory of the war; tonight, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's stance.
However, the Federal Reserve may not necessarily lend support, as they are opposing political parties; even if they do cut rates, it is expected to be just 25 basis points, which is not substantial. If it is negative, then rates would remain unchanged, and the possibility of an increase is low.
Resistance and Support, Long and Short Positions
Resistance around 2558
After breaking upward, pay attention to resistance around 2656
Support around 2462
After breaking downward, pay attention to support around 2380 #我的交易风格 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
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6.18 Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): The expected short-term fluctuation range is 104,000-108,000, overall inclined to rebound after a pullback;
Ethereum (ETH): The expected fluctuation range is 2,480-2,620, with the trend synchronously looking for a pullback and rise;
【Important Event Nodes】
Wednesday 04:30: U.S. Senate votes on the stablecoin bill "GENIUS Act" (expected to pass, neutral impact);
Wednesday 20:30: U.S. releases initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 14;
Thursday 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and summary of economic projections;
Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (key impact point).
【Market Logic】
Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell, primarily due to Trump calling for "everyone to evacuate Tehran" and interrupting the G7 meeting to return home to handle military affairs, raising market concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Historical experience shows that conflicts between Israel and Iran often lead to a rebound after an initial sharp market drop, so short-term geopolitical risks may only cause temporary fluctuations, and the downtrend is expected to recover.
Key impact of Federal Reserve policy: Tonight's Powell press conference will be a core variable: if the statement is dovish, Bitcoin may surge towards the 110,000 mark; if the stance is neutral or hawkish, prices are likely to fluctuate in the range of 108,000-104,000. Day trading direction: prioritize bullish (rebound logic) until Powell's speech reveals policy tendencies; if the Middle East situation deteriorates beyond expectations causing a sharp drop, one can consider positioning long near the 100,000 mark or after breaking below that point【Multi-Cycle Outlook】
The core range for Bitcoin remains 104,000-108,000;
The core range for Ethereum focuses on 2,500-2,700.
【Operation Strategy Summary】
Mainly focus on low buying during pullbacks and supplement with high selling, with a key focus on Powell's speech guidance at 02:30. If a sharp drop or significant decline occurs, take the opportunity to bottom fish. #我的交易风格 #eth #BTC走势分析
Bitcoin (BTC): The expected short-term fluctuation range is 104,000-108,000, overall inclined to rebound after a pullback;
Ethereum (ETH): The expected fluctuation range is 2,480-2,620, with the trend synchronously looking for a pullback and rise;
【Important Event Nodes】
Wednesday 04:30: U.S. Senate votes on the stablecoin bill "GENIUS Act" (expected to pass, neutral impact);
Wednesday 20:30: U.S. releases initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 14;
Thursday 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and summary of economic projections;
Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (key impact point).
【Market Logic】
Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell, primarily due to Trump calling for "everyone to evacuate Tehran" and interrupting the G7 meeting to return home to handle military affairs, raising market concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Historical experience shows that conflicts between Israel and Iran often lead to a rebound after an initial sharp market drop, so short-term geopolitical risks may only cause temporary fluctuations, and the downtrend is expected to recover.
Key impact of Federal Reserve policy: Tonight's Powell press conference will be a core variable: if the statement is dovish, Bitcoin may surge towards the 110,000 mark; if the stance is neutral or hawkish, prices are likely to fluctuate in the range of 108,000-104,000. Day trading direction: prioritize bullish (rebound logic) until Powell's speech reveals policy tendencies; if the Middle East situation deteriorates beyond expectations causing a sharp drop, one can consider positioning long near the 100,000 mark or after breaking below that point【Multi-Cycle Outlook】
The core range for Bitcoin remains 104,000-108,000;
The core range for Ethereum focuses on 2,500-2,700.
【Operation Strategy Summary】
Mainly focus on low buying during pullbacks and supplement with high selling, with a key focus on Powell's speech guidance at 02:30. If a sharp drop or significant decline occurs, take the opportunity to bottom fish. #我的交易风格 #eth #BTC走势分析
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BTC (Big Coin): The expected fluctuation range is 104500-106500, with a potential 'first drop, then rise' trend during the day, and a rebound opportunity after the decline.
ETH (Second Coin): The expected fluctuation range is 2510-2580, trending in sync with Bitcoin, likely to experience a rebound after a decline.
Core events this week: Focus on the Bank of Japan's decision (Tuesday) and the Federal Reserve's decision (Thursday), with Powell's speech potentially serving as a key guide for market direction.
BTC core range: Pay attention to the medium to long-term fluctuation range of 104000-108000; ETH core range: 2500-2700.
① The sharp drop in BTC at 8 AM may be related to Trump's call to 'evacuate Tehran,' raising market concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Historical experience shows that such geopolitical conflicts can trigger short-term sharp declines (as seen when Israel first bombed Iran), but often lead to rebounds after the emotional release, with non-decisive effects on the trend.
② If U.S. retail data tonight at 20:30 is below expectations, it will reinforce market speculation on a rate cut in September, but further confirmation of expectations will need to wait for Powell's speech on Thursday. The vote on the 'GENIUS Act' early Wednesday morning may become a turning point for market sentiment; if passed, it could drive a market rebound.
Conditions for going long: Wait for the price to reach the lower edge of the fluctuation range, then look for stabilization signals (such as long lower shadow candlesticks, shrinking trading volume) before entering the market in batches. Sharp declines can provide opportunities for bottom fishing, with light positions to bet on rebounds.
ETH (Second Coin): The expected fluctuation range is 2510-2580, trending in sync with Bitcoin, likely to experience a rebound after a decline.
Core events this week: Focus on the Bank of Japan's decision (Tuesday) and the Federal Reserve's decision (Thursday), with Powell's speech potentially serving as a key guide for market direction.
BTC core range: Pay attention to the medium to long-term fluctuation range of 104000-108000; ETH core range: 2500-2700.
① The sharp drop in BTC at 8 AM may be related to Trump's call to 'evacuate Tehran,' raising market concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Historical experience shows that such geopolitical conflicts can trigger short-term sharp declines (as seen when Israel first bombed Iran), but often lead to rebounds after the emotional release, with non-decisive effects on the trend.
② If U.S. retail data tonight at 20:30 is below expectations, it will reinforce market speculation on a rate cut in September, but further confirmation of expectations will need to wait for Powell's speech on Thursday. The vote on the 'GENIUS Act' early Wednesday morning may become a turning point for market sentiment; if passed, it could drive a market rebound.
Conditions for going long: Wait for the price to reach the lower edge of the fluctuation range, then look for stabilization signals (such as long lower shadow candlesticks, shrinking trading volume) before entering the market in batches. Sharp declines can provide opportunities for bottom fishing, with light positions to bet on rebounds.
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Core Trading Philosophy:
1. Don't overly worry about stop losses; stop losses are a necessary cost of trading!
2. Open positions only at key levels; if you buy wrong, still buy; if you sell wrong, still sell.
3. Every trading system needs to be backtested with at least 50 data points.
4. I have never seen anyone lose a lot of money in a bear market, but I have seen too many lose a lot of money in a bull market.
5. In a bull market, what kills you is not your position, but the myths of getting rich around you.
#交易认知 #BTC
1. Don't overly worry about stop losses; stop losses are a necessary cost of trading!
2. Open positions only at key levels; if you buy wrong, still buy; if you sell wrong, still sell.
3. Every trading system needs to be backtested with at least 50 data points.
4. I have never seen anyone lose a lot of money in a bear market, but I have seen too many lose a lot of money in a bull market.
5. In a bull market, what kills you is not your position, but the myths of getting rich around you.
#交易认知 #BTC
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Yesterday's Market Analysis: High Rebound and Pullback
The second point for the second contract is set at 2680 with a 0.65 difference for entry. It's a matter of luck, as 2650 also reached a maximum of about 130 points around #ETH #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
The main contract is still in a triangle convergence on the 4-hour level. Yesterday's high rebound and pullback has created a breakthrough of the short-term support reference at 106000-105200. Pay attention to long opportunities #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #btc #BTC走势分析
The second point for the second contract is set at 2680 with a 0.65 difference for entry. It's a matter of luck, as 2650 also reached a maximum of about 130 points around #ETH #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
The main contract is still in a triangle convergence on the 4-hour level. Yesterday's high rebound and pullback has created a breakthrough of the short-term support reference at 106000-105200. Pay attention to long opportunities #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #btc #BTC走势分析
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Bitcoin daily level, continuing to converge in a triangular adjustment.
Bitcoin is expected to range between 107500-106000, with an anticipated rise and fall;
Altcoin is expected to range between 2660-2580, with an expected trend of rise and fall; the pressure level around 2650 can be tested for a short position
This week's data news
Monday 20:30 USA June New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Tuesday (announced between 8-14) Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor's monetary policy press conference; 20:30 USA retail sales month-on-month
Wednesday 20:30 USA initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14
Thursday 02:00 Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary
Thursday 02:30 Powell holds a monetary policy press conference
Market Analysis
The weekend sideways fluctuation has stopped falling. The confrontation between Israel and Iran has been digested; unless there is a nuclear leak or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked causing oil prices to soar (inflation expectations), the impact is not significant. There are no important data events on Monday, and a rising trend occurred during the day, which is expected to continue into the evening; however, do not be overly optimistic, as in the absence of favorable news, a rise will lead to profit-taking selling pressure. Gold is expected to rise and then fall.
Multi-day expectations
This week pay attention to Tuesday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision and press conference, and Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision (expected no rate cut) and Powell's press conference (important)
Bitcoin main range looks at 108000-104000; altcoin looks at 2700-2500; #BTC #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #eth #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Bitcoin is expected to range between 107500-106000, with an anticipated rise and fall;
Altcoin is expected to range between 2660-2580, with an expected trend of rise and fall; the pressure level around 2650 can be tested for a short position
This week's data news
Monday 20:30 USA June New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Tuesday (announced between 8-14) Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor's monetary policy press conference; 20:30 USA retail sales month-on-month
Wednesday 20:30 USA initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14
Thursday 02:00 Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary
Thursday 02:30 Powell holds a monetary policy press conference
Market Analysis
The weekend sideways fluctuation has stopped falling. The confrontation between Israel and Iran has been digested; unless there is a nuclear leak or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked causing oil prices to soar (inflation expectations), the impact is not significant. There are no important data events on Monday, and a rising trend occurred during the day, which is expected to continue into the evening; however, do not be overly optimistic, as in the absence of favorable news, a rise will lead to profit-taking selling pressure. Gold is expected to rise and then fall.
Multi-day expectations
This week pay attention to Tuesday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision and press conference, and Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision (expected no rate cut) and Powell's press conference (important)
Bitcoin main range looks at 108000-104000; altcoin looks at 2700-2500; #BTC #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #eth #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
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