hamada Zyky

📉 $BTC — small pullback after a good month
$BTC opened the week at $64,500 and closed at $62,800 📉 a modest -2.6% pullback. Not alarming in isolation — but it comes right after the best week of July and confirms the market still has no real conviction above $65K. Fear & Greed slipped slightly to 32 — fear territory, but stable. The range continues. 😐
🏦 ETF — 3-week winning streak ends
After three consecutive weeks of positive inflows — the streak is over. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded -$61.53M in net outflows this week 😬 But context matters here — compare this to the -$1.79B seen in a single week in June. This is a relatively small number. Institutions are not running — just pausing ahead of major macro events. The question is whether outflows accelerate or stabilize next week. 👀
📉 Weekly outflows: -$61.53M — 3-week streak ended
⚠️ But context: June's worst week was -$1.79B — this is minimal
👀 More a pause than a reversal — watch next week closely
🌡 macro — same story, slowly improving
The data this week confirmed what we already knew — the macro picture is improving slowly but not fast enough 👇
Core PCE month-on-month continued to ease — inflation is cooling gradually as the Hormuz effect works its way through energy prices. GDP kept slowing — the economy is losing momentum and the growth picture is getting harder to defend. Neither number gives the Fed a clean reason to move in either direction. 🧠
✅ Core PCE MoM: easing — inflation slowly cooling
✅ Hormuz effect showing up — energy prices normalizing
📉 GDP: slowing — economy losing momentum
😐 Neither data point changes the Fed's calculus yet
🏛 fomc — warsh holds, hawks gaining ground
The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% for the fifth consecutive time — no surprise. But what the meeting revealed is more important than the decision itself. 9 out of 18 Fed officials have now officially penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026. The conversation in the room has shifted — not toward cuts, but toward hikes. Warsh abstained from the dot plot again giving zero forward guidance. The most divided Fed in a decade. 😬
🏛 Rates: held 3.50–3.75% — fifth consecutive hold
🚨 9/18 officials penciled in a rate hike for 2026
⚠️ Warsh: abstained from dot plot — no guidance again
😬 Conversation shifting from cuts to hikes
📅 Next FOMC: September — most important of the year
🔑 week in short
A week of confirmation rather than surprise. Inflation easing — confirmed. Economy slowing — confirmed. Fed divided and stuck — confirmed. ETF outflows small but the streak is broken. $BTC pulled back modestly but held above $62K. The macro environment is slowly improving but the Fed is moving toward hikes not cuts — and that contradiction keeps the market in check. August 7 is the next major catalyst — NFP and the CLARITY Act deadline on the same day. 🎯
#etf #fomc #PCE #GDP #dyor

📈 $BTC — first green month since april
$BTC started July at $59,000 and closed at $63,000 — a solid +7% on the month 🚀 The first positive month since April. But it wasn't a clean recovery — the month was full of false starts. $BTC briefly touched $66,900 during the best week before being dragged back by Iran escalation. The market spent most of July stuck in the $62-65K range with no real conviction in either direction. A green month on paper — a choppy, frustrating month in practice. 😐
😰 fear & greed — slow climb from the abyss
July started with Fear & Greed at 16 — extreme fear — one of the lowest readings of the entire year. By end of month it closed at 36 — fear. A 20-point recovery over 4 weeks — slow, grinding, fragile. The market has not forgotten the pain of May and June. Every positive signal was met with caution. Nobody is celebrating yet. 👁
🏦 ETF — net positive but barely
July's ETF story is a tale of two halves. The month started with 8 more consecutive days of outflows — extending June's historic bleeding. Then the tide turned. The 7-day inflow streak in the third week — totalling +$981M — was the longest and largest of 2026. Institutions came back with real conviction for the first time in months. But the first two weeks of outflows ate into those gains, leaving the month at a net +$205M. Marginal — but the first positive monthly flow since April. 💰
✅ Monthly net inflows: +$205M — first positive month since April
✅ Best single week: +$981M over 7 consecutive days
✅ BlackRock IBIT: +$163.9M in one session — institutional conviction
⚠️ YTD cumulative still deeply negative — long road to recover
🌡 macro data — the inflation picture finally improving
July brought the best inflation data since the war started — and that was the defining positive of the month 👇
CPI June came in at 3.5% YoY — below the 3.8% forecast, the largest monthly drop since April 2020, driven by gasoline falling nearly 10% as Hormuz normalized. PPI also came in soft. Core PCE eased month on month. The Hormuz reopening is finally showing up in the data. Inflation is not fixed — but it is moving in the right direction for the first time in months. 🌡
On the other side — GDP kept slowing, economy losing momentum. NFP came in at just +57K — well below expectations — with April and May revised down 74K combined. The labor market softened. But then a contradictory signal hit — jobless claims dropped to 187K, the lowest since September 1969. The data was sending mixed messages all month long. 🧠
✅ CPI: 3.5% — below forecast, first real cooling since war
✅ Core PCE: easing MoM — pipeline inflation cooling
✅ PPI: below expectations — producer prices normalizing
📉 GDP: slowing — economy losing momentum
📉 NFP: +57K — well below 110K expected
😳 Jobless claims: 187K — lowest since September 1969
😬 Macro contradiction: weak growth + tight labor + easing inflation
🏛 fomc — warsh holds but hawks are gaining
Warsh held rates at 3.50–3.75% for the 5th consecutive time at his second FOMC meeting July 30. Unanimous hold — but the dot plot told a darker story. 9 out of 18 Fed officials have now penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026. The conversation has officially shifted from "when do we cut" to "do we need to hike." The FOMC minutes from June confirmed a 9-to-8 split — Warsh himself abstained from the dot plot for the second time, giving no forward guidance. The most uncertain Fed in a decade. 😬
🏛 Rates: held 3.50–3.75% — 5th consecutive hold
⚠️ 9/18 members penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026
⚠️ Warsh: abstained from dot plot — no forward guidance again
😬 Fed split: hawks gaining, conversation shifting to hikes
📅 Next FOMC: September — rate hike risk growing
🛢 iran — peace deal collapsing
July started with the June 19 peace deal in place. It ended with the deal effectively collapsing. The US struck Iran on 13 consecutive nights. Houthi forces aligned with Iran attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea — opening a second maritime front alongside Hormuz. Iran rejected a 10-day ceasefire proposal. Trump publicly floated targeting Iran's underground nuclear facility. Oil surged back above $100/barrel — Brent hit $100.69 mid-month, erasing weeks of post-war relief. The Hormuz situation remains technically open but fragile. The 60-day MOU window expires mid-August. 😬
🚨 US strikes Iran: 13 consecutive nights
🚢 Houthis: attacked Saudi tankers — second maritime front opened
❌ Iran rejected 10-day ceasefire proposal
🛢 Brent: back above $100/barrel — erasing peace deal relief
📅 MOU 60-day window: expires mid-August — next critical deadline
✅ Hormuz: still technically open — but increasingly fragile
⚖️ CLARITY Act — last chance slipping away
The CLARITY Act missed the July 4 deadline. A new merged draft was released July 22 — but with zero Democrat support. Three disputes remain unresolved — ethics provisions blocking Trump family crypto profits, law enforcement concerns, and stablecoin yield fights. Polymarket odds collapsed to 33% — down from 74% two months ago. Senator Lummis warned: if it fails — next chance is 2030. The August 7 Senate recess deadline is now the last realistic window. 📅
🔑 july in one look
$BTC 📈 $59,000 → $63,000 (+7%) — first green month since April ✅
🏦 ETF +$205M — marginal but first positive month since April ✅
😰 Fear & Greed 16 → 36 — slow recovery from extreme fear 📈
✅ CPI 3.5% · PCE easing · PPI soft — inflation finally cooling
⚠️ FOMC: 9/18 members want to hike — hawks gaining
🚨 Iran: peace deal collapsing, oil back at $100+
⚖️ CLARITY Act: 33% odds, August 7 is the last chance
July was the first month of 2026 that felt like recovery — but it was a fragile, contested recovery. Inflation finally cooling, ETF flows turning positive, sentiment rebuilding from extreme lows. But Iran escalating again, hawks gaining in the Fed, CLARITY Act odds collapsing — the headwinds are real. August will be defined by three things: the CLARITY Act vote before August 7, the Iran MOU 60-day deadline in mid-August, #fomc #Warsh #CLARITYAct #dyor