fed

$BTC has reached a critical juncture as the US Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision approaches, amid persistent inflationary pressures and growing uncertainty over the path of monetary policy in the coming months. In my view, the meeting’s impact will extend beyond the interest rate decision itself to how markets interpret the central bank’s policy outlook and whether it intends to maintain restrictive monetary conditions or signal further tightening ahead.
These developments are particularly significant as $BTC trades near the $80,000 level after struggling to regain its bullish momentum. Following the latest pullback, the performance of the largest cryptocurrency has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, particularly US inflation, energy prices, Treasury yields, and movements in the US dollar. These factors highlight that Bitcoin does not move independently of traditional markets but is influenced by shifts in risk appetite and the opportunity cost of holding assets that generate no regular income.bearish scenario, persistent inflation and rising expectations of further monetary tightening could revive selling pressure on Bitcoin. In this case, the $77,000–$77,765 support zone deserves close attention. A decisive breakdown below this range, accompanied by stronger selling pressure, could deepen the correction. However, such a move alone would not be sufficient to confirm the start of a prolonged bear market.
In a bullish scenario, a less hawkish Fed tone, combined with improving investment flows and easing pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields, could help $BTC reclaim nearby resistance levels, starting with $81,300 and then $82,500, based on the technical levels identified in the analysis. A sustained move above these areas could strengthen the recovery outlook, provided demand remains firm and the rally does not turn into a short-lived speculative move.
#FOMCWatch
#Fed
#Bitcoin❗

Today the Fed announces its rate decision at 18:00 UTC, with Chair Warsh's press conference at 18:30. Markets price only about a 12% chance of another hike, so a hold is the base case. But for crypto traders, the decision itself is rarely the whole story. The tone of the press conference, and how price reacts in the hours after, matter much more.
Here's a simple playbook for $BTC on Fed days, built from how markets typically behave around these events.
Why Fed days move crypto
Bitcoin now trades a lot like a high-beta tech asset. When the Fed signals tighter conditions, the dollar and bond yields usually rise, and risk assets like tech stocks and crypto tend to fall together. When the Fed sounds calmer, the opposite often happens. That's why one sentence in the press conference can move Bitcoin by thousands of dollars in minutes.
This week has extra fuel: Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings tonight after the close, and PCE inflation plus Q3 GDP land tomorrow at 12:30 UTC. Three big catalysts in roughly 24 hours.
Where Bitcoin stands going in
On the 4H chart, Bitcoin is coiled in a tight range of about 2,000 dollars. The floor at 79.2K-79.5K has held three times since Oct 23. Overhead, 81.3K-82.3K has capped every bounce. Price sits right at the 4H EMA50 with RSI near 54, which is about as neutral as it gets. In other words, the market is waiting for the Fed to choose a direction.
Three scenarios to plan for
Scenario A, hold with a calm tone: the most market-friendly outcome. A 4H close above 82.3K would open the way back toward the 84.9K high from Oct 21.
Scenario B, hold with a hawkish tone: rates stay put but Warsh pushes back on cuts or hints at more tightening. Expect a retest of the 79.2K floor, and watch whether buyers defend it a fourth time.
Scenario C, surprise hike: low odds, high impact. The floor likely breaks fast and liquidity below 79K gets tested. These are the moves that wipe out over-leveraged traders in minutes.
Five rules for trading Fed day
Rule one: don't trade the first candle. The first move after the statement is often reversed during the press conference.
Rule two: size down. Spreads widen and wicks get long, so normal stop distances can get hit by noise.
Rule three: wait for the 4H close. A breakout that holds for a full 4H candle is far more reliable than an intrabar spike.
Rule four: watch the dollar and the Nasdaq. If both move against crypto after the presser, a Bitcoin bounce is less likely to stick.
Rule five: remember tomorrow. Even a clean move today can be erased by a hot PCE print at 12:30 UTC on Thursday.
Bottom line
Fed days reward patience, not prediction. Mark your levels before 18:00 UTC (79.2K below, 82.3K above), let the first spike play out, and act on confirmed closes. That simple discipline keeps you out of most Fed-day traps on $BTC .
Which scenario do you expect: A, B or C? Tell me in the comments, and follow Market Pulse Daily for updated levels right after the press conference. Not financial advice (NFA).
#FOMCWatch #Bitcoin #Fed
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