Santiment warned ahead of today's FOMC, and the line stuck with me: "Crowd conviction can get loud right before it gets wrong, especially when traders are trying to price Fed uncertainty into Bitcoin." (via CryptoPotato)
Here is the setup. The Fed announces its decision today, October 28, at 2:00 PM ET (2:00 AM Beijing, Oct 29). Markets price a ~90.6% chance rates stay at 3.75%-4.00% (KuCoin).
$BTC reclaimed $81,000 overnight (WatcherGuru) and now sits near $80,780, up 0.6% in 24h.
📊 The price ladder traders are watching:
Support: $79,400-$79,600, tested repeatedly this week
Resistance: $80,500-$80,800, then $83,900-$84,000
If support breaks: $75,000, then $73,000
Why it matters: the hold itself is almost fully priced in, so the decision is not the trade. The statement wording and Chair Warsh's press conference are. Warsh has dropped forward guidance, so every sentence gets parsed. One more wrinkle: September PCE lands October 29, one day after the meeting.
Flows add a second layer. Spot BTC ETFs took in $110.3M on Monday, all through BlackRock's IBIT, after $773.5M of outflows Thursday and Friday (CoinGape).
$ETH , XRP and SOL ETFs still saw net outflows.
My take: institutions are hedging the event, not front-running it.
🟢 If the tone stays neutral: a break above $80,800 reopens $83,900-$84,000.
🔴 If Warsh sounds hawkish: losing $79,400 puts $75,000 in play fast.
But a hold does not mean dovish. Inflation is still running well above the Fed's 2% target, and another hike before year-end is still on the table. The trap is treating "no change today" as "no more hikes ever."
Is today a buy-the-dip setup before the statement, or does the hawkish risk make $79,400 the line that matters? 🐂🐻
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#crypto #FOMC