徐戈Crypto

I recently traveled from Guangdong to Nanning, then north to Duan, and just arrived in Bama last night, busy without time to update externally.
Just right, it was too hot during the day, so I took the opportunity to write something for everyone to follow up on the market situation and operational ideas.
A key piece of information was released on Tuesday (July 9) —

"On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to increase the cash reserves of the Treasury General Account (TGA) from about $313 billion on July 3 to $500 billion by the end of July, expecting to reach a level consistent with the cash balance policy of about $850 billion in September. According to the Treasury's statement, this target is consistent with previous forecasts, but the rebuilding pace is milder."

Yesterday, I saw a piece of information and quickly sent a reminder to the community.

In hindsight, Bitcoin fell 3000 points as expected against the backdrop of the U.S. stock market hitting new highs.
I glanced at various reasons found within the circle.
As long as you are looking for reasons, reasons will always come knocking at your door. The one that is most intimidating and easiest to understand is—
"On July 4, according to Whale Alert monitoring, the eighth dormant Bitcoin whale address, which had been inactive for 14 years, has just been activated. As of now, this address has at least 80,009 BTC that have all been activated."
Can this news cause BTC to drop? Yes, but at most it will drop $300 and will quickly rebound.

Not long ago, I was just nagging about why I was messing around with a certain security’s alpha rewards (is it really possible to earn over ten thousand a month? Why am I still too lazy to accumulate Binance Alpha points?), and the 'dedicated' trading pairs ZKJ and KOGE for earning points were targeted for destruction, dropping over 80% in a short period, with ZKJ falling from 2 dollars to a low of 20 cents.

Maybe I leaked a secret, MD, a certain app just banned my newly popular account.
The plummet of ZKJ and KOGE has left those who pooled and accumulated points crying; after working hard for months, a moment of inattention caused them to lose everything in one day.

Anyway, I generally just watch projects that everyone is flocking to with a cold eye and don’t get involved much.

Web3 looks impressive, but in reality, most profitable points are just trivial matters.
So-called Binance Alpha means you can earn points if you have asset holdings on a certain platform or make transactions in their web3 wallet. Once the points reach a certain level, you can claim airdrops.

So-called airdrops are essentially disguised listing fees that new projects pay to Binance, which Binance distributes to users who can sell for cash.
A prominent feature of this round of bull market is that on-chain transactions suddenly became active, and chasing after low-quality coins became a necessity for gamblers. After CZ got out of prison, Binance, which had been a mess, is determined to make a big comeback and reclaim market share taken by competitors like OK.

Hello everyone, I am the charming and sweet-voiced Lao Xu.
Last night before going to sleep, a thought suddenly surged in my mind, 'Bitcoin must reach $150,000.'
To find some support for my thoughts without calculating, I asked AI, 'What would be the market value for Bitcoin to catch up with gold?'

AI is very rigorous, using the total market value of gold at $22.59 trillion as a reference for April 2025.
Moreover, a very detailed point is that it uses the circulating supply of Bitcoin for calculations.
The end result is that for Bitcoin to catch up with gold, it would need to reach about $1 million each.
In other words, if the status of digital gold is solidified, Bitcoin, under the currently imaginable reference frame, could rise to over $1 million each.

Hello everyone, I am Lao Xu, who is beautiful and has a sweet voice.
What is wealth?
Whether you are barefoot or wearing shoes, everyone can say a few words.
Generally speaking, as long as you think something is useful, whether it is material or spiritual, it can be called wealth. From spiritual realm, thoughts and character to a pile of cow dung on the side of the road, it can all be called "wealth".
In a narrow sense, wealth generally refers to material assets, which are useful things with higher value and recognized by everyone. The most typical representatives are money and houses.
To be more straightforward, in general, the wealth people refer to is generally hard currency with broad consensus, such as legal tender, precious metals represented by gold and silver, and movable and immovable property represented by real estate, automobiles, and factories.

Why aren’t people making money? Because the inexperienced still have a conscience.
Why aren’t people making money? Because the inexperienced are still naive.
Crypto is like a prostitute, saying it loves you and will always love you, and the inexperienced still believe it.

Bitcoin recently hit a new high of 112,000 on May 22.
But the market sentiment is generally low, like a dead calm.
Ultimately, this round of bull market is very unfriendly to ordinary people, with a very poor wealth creation effect.
How did it come to this?
1. In this round, the industry has completely become a juicer for inexperienced liquidity, and the manipulators have completely lost the patience to fish for big catches.
As soon as the token is issued, they can't wait to cash out, and the fabricated good news is nothing but a malicious curse to trap the inexperienced.

On April 20, amidst a chorus of bearish wails, I wrote (key indicators suggest Bitcoin and altcoins will surge), and as of today, May 12, Bitcoin has already risen above 105,000.
My mid-term script judgment for Bitcoin has been perfectly realized.
The next phase will be a seemingly beautiful and dreamy but actually perilous time for retail investors.
At the bottom, anything you buy is right; even dog poop can bounce a few times.
Currently, there are signs of rotation among various altcoin sectors; for example, Bonk and Pnut have already risen three to four times from the bottom.
Some CSDFG bloggers have started to promote the illusion of new highs.

Following the previous topic, let's discuss the direction of the mid-term cryptocurrency market in the coming period.
​In terms of Old Xu's trading system, I emphasize that there must be a basis for everything, rather than simply looking at K-line patterns and daydreaming.
​During the last major drop, I said within the community that buying below 75,000 could be a bottom-fishing opportunity. Although there were some setbacks later, Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of 74,000 to the current position of 85,000.

Altcoins have also begun to stabilize, with some even quietly doubling in value; although they have doubled, they are still in the pit, but the market makers have released information indicating they haven't died or abandoned their positions.
The primary market has also begun to warm up with SOL recovering around 140, and the weak coin RFC, under the speculation of large funds, has rarely become a big dog breaking 100M recently.

Haven't updated for a long time.
​
The reason I haven’t updated is that, apart from the fact that I’ve been outside for about 10 to 20 days, there’s no need to say more because I’ve said everything that should have been said a long time ago.
​
The economy is like crops, it has its ups and downs, and individuals can only go with the flow. The individual’s will under impatience is like an ant trying to shake a tree.

Crypto is currently just an inconspicuous young man on the giant ship of the big economic cycle, who has been temporarily forced into a corner by the storm.
​
When the market jumps back and forth and my account shrinks, I feel uncomfortable and even my vitality is shrinking. I lose interest in many things. It is like even if I have a weather forecast in my mind, I still feel depressed and uneasy when a storm is imminent.

I can't be bothered to post enticing images, just stating a fact for everyone to think critically.

After more than half a year of testing, I have summarized a nearly unique correct path for ambushing the super golden dog.
The key to achieving the hundredfold golden dog diamond hand is to make watching more and moving less a habit.
Those who love to place bets daily find it hard to be diamond hands.
Try to only engage in memes with phenomenal potential, get on those that won't regret going to zero.
Catching one or two in a year is sufficient.
Phenomenal big golden dogs, starting at 100x, mean you must have the determination to endure 100 times of going to zero, gradually increasing your win rate.

Sitting in the primary market can reverse fate; the primary is an eternal theme.
It's not that the altcoin season has disappeared; it's just been taken over by the meme coin season.
The meme coin season is the same as the previous altcoin season. It is clear that speculating on the latest is safer than speculating on the old; old narratives and coins are garbage; what matters is the choice of capital, and the probability of old garbage being selected is very low.

There is a saying in the market: 'Lying on the primary market earns money, while the secondary market grinds meat.' The secret behind this is like 'opening the meridians' in martial arts novels—one must endure loneliness, sitting in the deep mountains for ten years, before emerging to seal the throat with one sword.

There is a law that is very useful in the crypto circle: what is popular must die, and the wheel of fortune turns.
Just like ETH was generally considered a better choice than BTC by retail investors before the bull run.
In fact, the car is too heavy to pull, and the returns are far inferior to the severely fud-ridden sol.

In the early stages of the 2023 bull market, Ethereum was like Athena in the crypto world, revered by believers as the embodiment of wisdom and wealth. The mainstream narrative at that time believed that ETH2.0 would complete an epic upgrade, the Layer2 ecosystem would swallow traditional finance, and NFTs and the metaverse would reshape human civilization. The market consensus was so strong that a leading exchange even launched a 'ETH Believer' exclusive financial product.

On March 10, 2025, the Nasdaq plunged nearly 5%, and technology stocks experienced their largest one-day drop since 2022. Bitcoin fell to a low of 76,000 and has now rebounded to above 81,000.
This is counterintuitive, but it’s actually good news for encryption.
Trump and Musk seem to be intentionally creating a limited crisis to prick the U.S. stock market and create conditions for the Federal Reserve to flood the market with money.

Faced with the behemoth of $36.3 trillion in national debt (expanding by $3 million every minute), Trump's calculations are clattering in the Oval Office of the White House: every 1% rate cut by the Federal Reserve can free $400 billion from the noose of national debt interest.

If you don’t break away, you might face a night that could see a 90% drop or even go to zero.
Maybe someone will mumble, didn't Old Xu say there would definitely be an altcoin season?
Wake up, in principle, the altcoin season has already come twice in this round; during good market conditions, they generally rose 3 to 10 times, among which Pepe, Sol, XRP, Ondo, and WLD are typical representatives.
However, there will definitely not be an altcoin season like this, where a limited retracement leads to a broad rise.
In the second half of the bull market, entering a loose cycle, there is a high probability of another wave of 'altcoin season', but it is not recommended for newcomers to gamble, and most targets may never reach new highs again.

When the Texas Senate passes a $500 billion digital asset bill and the U.S. White House proclaims the ambition of becoming a 'Bitcoin superpower,' a financial revolution regarding national strategic reserves has quietly begun to take shape.
Bitcoin, once regarded as a 'marginal asset,' is reshaping the underlying logic of global capital flows with the endorsement of sovereign credit. For individual investors, this is both a historic opportunity and a life-and-death examination of cognitive iteration.
Why can only Bitcoin be bought in the second half of the bull market?

In the second half of the bull market, escaping the peak is more important than buying, but escaping the peak is a much more dangerous move than bottom-fishing.

Human values are in a constant state of flux, making it difficult to accurately assess value trends in detail, 'just like you can never see through whether the NFT printed on my underpants is Pikachu or Ultraman.'
Gold, oil, and pharmaceuticals are common strategic reserves, but most people in the world currently cannot understand how a string of characters in a ledger can become a national strategic reserve.

But the reality is so magical. On March 6th local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

In the wrong industry, you may live a lifetime in visible despair.
In the right industry, you may have been hopeless all along, but perhaps the next second will yield a huge prize.
Never lose faith in cryptocurrency.
Recently, Trump has been jumping around, the high-interest range is still maintained, and the market is in panic, whether big whales or small shrimp tend to hold USDT and wait and see, secondary altcoins and primary memes have fallen into winter, a mess everywhere.

Today, Old Xu has warmed a pot of encrypted chicken soup to feed everyone—
A silent class massacre is happening in this world.
The 9-to-5 wage slaves sell their youth cheaply in office buildings, small vendors struggle in the algorithmic cage of e-commerce platforms, and youth in small towns tremble at the meat grinder of housing prices and bride prices. In the survival game of the traditional world, 99% of players are doomed to be NPCs—they will never catch up with inflation, their labor value is continuously diluted by capital, and their fate trajectories are written into the system's code from birth.

On March 2, 2025, US President Trump released a "nuclear bomb-level" message on social media: announcing the creation of a US strategic cryptocurrency reserve, explicitly including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA). Within just a few hours, the crypto market soared - BTC broke through $93,000, XRP and SOL exploded one after another, and ADA and other currencies rose by more than 70% in a single day, and the total amount of liquidation on the entire network soared to $811 million. This "crypto carnival" led by politicians seems to be Trump's promise to "make the United States the global crypto capital", but in fact it hides a sophisticated calculation of political and business linkage.

A few days ago, Bitcoin plunged sharply, falling from the high of $100,000 to the $80,000 range. At the darkest moment, I still firmly believe that the bull market is still here.
Today, BTC has rebounded above $85,000.
Today, let's delve into the most core reasons why the bull market hasn't ended and the underlying logic behind it.
I. Survival Logic: Wall Street's 'Water Cycle' and Crisis Industrialization
The essence of Wall Street is a 'liquidity perpetual motion machine', and its core survival rule is to create panic-harvest chips-force liquidity release in a death spiral.
1. The 'Scripted Production' of Financial Crises
Since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the US has formed a standardized operation assembly line of 'crisis-rescue-asset inflation'. In 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will exceed $12 trillion, a 400% increase from before the pandemic in 2020, proving that any market collapse will trigger a more insane printing press roar. As a new liquidity pool, the crypto market will inevitably be included in this cycle—when traditional asset bubbles reach a critical point, it only takes a 'Lehman-style bomb' (such as an exchange explosion or algorithmic stablecoin de-pegging) to spark panic that will instantly drain liquidity from the global capital market.