徐戈Crypto

Following the previous topic, let's discuss the direction of the mid-term cryptocurrency market in the coming period.
​In terms of Old Xu's trading system, I emphasize that there must be a basis for everything, rather than simply looking at K-line patterns and daydreaming.
​During the last major drop, I said within the community that buying below 75,000 could be a bottom-fishing opportunity. Although there were some setbacks later, Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of 74,000 to the current position of 85,000.

Altcoins have also begun to stabilize, with some even quietly doubling in value; although they have doubled, they are still in the pit, but the market makers have released information indicating they haven't died or abandoned their positions.
The primary market has also begun to warm up with SOL recovering around 140, and the weak coin RFC, under the speculation of large funds, has rarely become a big dog breaking 100M recently.

Haven't updated for a long time.
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The reason I haven’t updated is that, apart from the fact that I’ve been outside for about 10 to 20 days, there’s no need to say more because I’ve said everything that should have been said a long time ago.
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The economy is like crops, it has its ups and downs, and individuals can only go with the flow. The individual’s will under impatience is like an ant trying to shake a tree.

Crypto is currently just an inconspicuous young man on the giant ship of the big economic cycle, who has been temporarily forced into a corner by the storm.
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When the market jumps back and forth and my account shrinks, I feel uncomfortable and even my vitality is shrinking. I lose interest in many things. It is like even if I have a weather forecast in my mind, I still feel depressed and uneasy when a storm is imminent.

I can't be bothered to post enticing images, just stating a fact for everyone to think critically.

After more than half a year of testing, I have summarized a nearly unique correct path for ambushing the super golden dog.
The key to achieving the hundredfold golden dog diamond hand is to make watching more and moving less a habit.
Those who love to place bets daily find it hard to be diamond hands.
Try to only engage in memes with phenomenal potential, get on those that won't regret going to zero.
Catching one or two in a year is sufficient.
Phenomenal big golden dogs, starting at 100x, mean you must have the determination to endure 100 times of going to zero, gradually increasing your win rate.

Sitting in the primary market can reverse fate; the primary is an eternal theme.
It's not that the altcoin season has disappeared; it's just been taken over by the meme coin season.
The meme coin season is the same as the previous altcoin season. It is clear that speculating on the latest is safer than speculating on the old; old narratives and coins are garbage; what matters is the choice of capital, and the probability of old garbage being selected is very low.

There is a saying in the market: 'Lying on the primary market earns money, while the secondary market grinds meat.' The secret behind this is like 'opening the meridians' in martial arts novels—one must endure loneliness, sitting in the deep mountains for ten years, before emerging to seal the throat with one sword.

There is a law that is very useful in the crypto circle: what is popular must die, and the wheel of fortune turns.
Just like ETH was generally considered a better choice than BTC by retail investors before the bull run.
In fact, the car is too heavy to pull, and the returns are far inferior to the severely fud-ridden sol.

In the early stages of the 2023 bull market, Ethereum was like Athena in the crypto world, revered by believers as the embodiment of wisdom and wealth. The mainstream narrative at that time believed that ETH2.0 would complete an epic upgrade, the Layer2 ecosystem would swallow traditional finance, and NFTs and the metaverse would reshape human civilization. The market consensus was so strong that a leading exchange even launched a 'ETH Believer' exclusive financial product.

On March 10, 2025, the Nasdaq plunged nearly 5%, and technology stocks experienced their largest one-day drop since 2022. Bitcoin fell to a low of 76,000 and has now rebounded to above 81,000.
This is counterintuitive, but it’s actually good news for encryption.
Trump and Musk seem to be intentionally creating a limited crisis to prick the U.S. stock market and create conditions for the Federal Reserve to flood the market with money.

Faced with the behemoth of $36.3 trillion in national debt (expanding by $3 million every minute), Trump's calculations are clattering in the Oval Office of the White House: every 1% rate cut by the Federal Reserve can free $400 billion from the noose of national debt interest.

If you don’t break away, you might face a night that could see a 90% drop or even go to zero.
Maybe someone will mumble, didn't Old Xu say there would definitely be an altcoin season?
Wake up, in principle, the altcoin season has already come twice in this round; during good market conditions, they generally rose 3 to 10 times, among which Pepe, Sol, XRP, Ondo, and WLD are typical representatives.
However, there will definitely not be an altcoin season like this, where a limited retracement leads to a broad rise.
In the second half of the bull market, entering a loose cycle, there is a high probability of another wave of 'altcoin season', but it is not recommended for newcomers to gamble, and most targets may never reach new highs again.

When the Texas Senate passes a $500 billion digital asset bill and the U.S. White House proclaims the ambition of becoming a 'Bitcoin superpower,' a financial revolution regarding national strategic reserves has quietly begun to take shape.
Bitcoin, once regarded as a 'marginal asset,' is reshaping the underlying logic of global capital flows with the endorsement of sovereign credit. For individual investors, this is both a historic opportunity and a life-and-death examination of cognitive iteration.
Why can only Bitcoin be bought in the second half of the bull market?

In the second half of the bull market, escaping the peak is more important than buying, but escaping the peak is a much more dangerous move than bottom-fishing.

Human values are in a constant state of flux, making it difficult to accurately assess value trends in detail, 'just like you can never see through whether the NFT printed on my underpants is Pikachu or Ultraman.'
Gold, oil, and pharmaceuticals are common strategic reserves, but most people in the world currently cannot understand how a string of characters in a ledger can become a national strategic reserve.

But the reality is so magical. On March 6th local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

In the wrong industry, you may live a lifetime in visible despair.
In the right industry, you may have been hopeless all along, but perhaps the next second will yield a huge prize.
Never lose faith in cryptocurrency.
Recently, Trump has been jumping around, the high-interest range is still maintained, and the market is in panic, whether big whales or small shrimp tend to hold USDT and wait and see, secondary altcoins and primary memes have fallen into winter, a mess everywhere.

Today, Old Xu has warmed a pot of encrypted chicken soup to feed everyone—
A silent class massacre is happening in this world.
The 9-to-5 wage slaves sell their youth cheaply in office buildings, small vendors struggle in the algorithmic cage of e-commerce platforms, and youth in small towns tremble at the meat grinder of housing prices and bride prices. In the survival game of the traditional world, 99% of players are doomed to be NPCs—they will never catch up with inflation, their labor value is continuously diluted by capital, and their fate trajectories are written into the system's code from birth.

On March 2, 2025, US President Trump released a "nuclear bomb-level" message on social media: announcing the creation of a US strategic cryptocurrency reserve, explicitly including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA). Within just a few hours, the crypto market soared - BTC broke through $93,000, XRP and SOL exploded one after another, and ADA and other currencies rose by more than 70% in a single day, and the total amount of liquidation on the entire network soared to $811 million. This "crypto carnival" led by politicians seems to be Trump's promise to "make the United States the global crypto capital", but in fact it hides a sophisticated calculation of political and business linkage.

A few days ago, Bitcoin plunged sharply, falling from the high of $100,000 to the $80,000 range. At the darkest moment, I still firmly believe that the bull market is still here.
Today, BTC has rebounded above $85,000.
Today, let's delve into the most core reasons why the bull market hasn't ended and the underlying logic behind it.
I. Survival Logic: Wall Street's 'Water Cycle' and Crisis Industrialization
The essence of Wall Street is a 'liquidity perpetual motion machine', and its core survival rule is to create panic-harvest chips-force liquidity release in a death spiral.
1. The 'Scripted Production' of Financial Crises
Since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the US has formed a standardized operation assembly line of 'crisis-rescue-asset inflation'. In 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will exceed $12 trillion, a 400% increase from before the pandemic in 2020, proving that any market collapse will trigger a more insane printing press roar. As a new liquidity pool, the crypto market will inevitably be included in this cycle—when traditional asset bubbles reach a critical point, it only takes a 'Lehman-style bomb' (such as an exchange explosion or algorithmic stablecoin de-pegging) to spark panic that will instantly drain liquidity from the global capital market.

I say, Bitcoin believers are something else.
Deepseek states that in financial speculation, the more devout the believer, the more they are SSB, supersb.
To be more elegant, let's put it another way—
The 'Holy Grail' of Bitcoin believers: a carnival of financial nakedness.
The essence of finance is risk pricing, and the essence of speculation is passing the flower—yet Bitcoin believers insist on packaging the act of passing the flower as the 'torch of revolution'.
Old Xu reveals the emperor's new clothes to everyone, dissecting the naivety and absurdity of this group with financial logic.

1. Casino as a shrine: what 'digital gold' is there?

Today's crypto market resembles a gambler kicked into the abyss, temporarily stopped by a tree growing from the cliff; Bitcoin finds temporary support at $86,000.

Just yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $90,000, and 250,000 people were liquidated overnight, blood flowing like a river.
On the surface, it looks like 'technical adjustments' and 'market fluctuations', but peel back the layers, and it's all a meat grinder for capital giants.
Today, Old Xu will take three minutes to peel back this layer, letting you see who is reaping profits and who is secretly laughing at the corpses.
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I. Bitcoin crash: whose scythe will fall first?
Bitcoin falls below $90,000; Wall Street's 'technical correction' nonsense can't fool the seasoned players — this is clearly a chain reaction from Trump's tariff club.

Bitcoin 'crashed' today, even the giant whales who planned to make a tenfold profit from 100,000 had to cut losses.

This is a good sign.
One should know that even if there is an altcoin season, it will basically occur at the tail end of a bull market.
The most turbulent altcoin bull market in 2021 occurred during the rebound process after Bitcoin crashed from 64,000 to 29,000.
This round has a new characteristic, represented by pumpfun, where the primary market is also sucking blood, occupying a large amount of liquidity.
Why doesn't Bitcoin die? Without a bloodbath in Bitcoin, altcoins struggle to surge.
As the market cap of Bitcoin rises, more and more liquidity will be locked up; only a sharp crash can clear the leverage and release liquidity, allowing altcoins to potentially receive a liquidity boost for a massive surge.

Around 12 o'clock on February 21, I was sitting with my legs crossed, humming a little tune and watching the local dog.
A local dog named BYEBIT (meaning bybit byebye) came into view and surged 7X in a short period of time. I felt confused at the time and did not realize that I was experiencing the largest theft in the history of encryption.

As community members supplemented information and external information fermented, we learned that 514,000 ETH worth approximately US$1.429 billion were stolen from the ETH multi-signature cold wallet of Bybit, the world's second largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume.
After that, the hacker dispersed 490,000 ETH to 49 addresses, with 10,000 ETH in each address. 15,000 cmETH was intercepted when the hacker unpledged it, and it may be recovered.

Peaks produce hypocritical supporters; the dark night witnesses devoted believers.
I woke up to find that the $pain airdrop, which had been silent for about ten days, surged unexpectedly, far exceeding expectations, with a 6x return fully cashed out. Although I didn’t go all-in, it’s enough for a few years of instant noodles.

Another piece of news that brings me some comfort is that Pyth, which I had a relatively large position in, is now part of the Grayscale fund and also on Coinbase. Although the cost was 0.45 and is now 0.21, my analysis has been completely realized. Even if I lose everything, I will feel happy; it’s unrelated to profit or loss.
In the past month or two, the market has been quite bleak, so bleak that some of my 'disciples' who used to call me master with starry eyes are now addressing me casually.

The crypto world has been completely cold recently, even colder than people’s hearts.
"It's like when all the birds have eaten and they fly back to the forest, leaving the earth white and clean!"

Argentine President Mille jumped out and issued $LIBRA, cutting the primary market inside and out again. Along with Sol diving 160, the liquidity of the primary market dried up and the secondary market also plunged. Even pumpfun, a bustling meme casino, had the embarrassing scene of not being able to shoot a single external market for half an hour.
All major crypto communities were also silent, and the amount of news dropped drastically.
The crypto world has officially entered a garbage period where the harder you work, the more you lose.