When the Texas Senate passes a $500 billion digital asset bill and the U.S. White House proclaims the ambition of becoming a 'Bitcoin superpower,' a financial revolution regarding national strategic reserves has quietly begun to take shape.
Bitcoin, once regarded as a 'marginal asset,' is reshaping the underlying logic of global capital flows with the endorsement of sovereign credit. For individual investors, this is both a historic opportunity and a life-and-death examination of cognitive iteration.
Why can only Bitcoin be bought in the second half of the bull market?
In the second half of the bull market, escaping the peak is more important than buying, but escaping the peak is a much more dangerous move than bottom-fishing.
The premise of wanting to make a big profit is to survive first and preserve the principal.
The reason for choosing Bitcoin is that it has received unprecedented support from sovereign credit in this round; in the worst case, even if the top is missed, if a position can be established in the range of 50,000 to 70,000 Bitcoin, it won't drop much in the bear market.
In a deep bear market, Bitcoin is likely to drop to around 30,000.
Historical cycles show that Bitcoin bear market bottoms elevate exponentially.
From $200 in 2015 to $3,200 in 2018 to $16,500 in 2022.
Based on the 50-year growth model after the Gold Strategic Reserve Act, the next bear market bottom is likely to land in the range of 30,000 to 40,000, but the short-term 'policy bottom' formed by institutional support may be locked in at 50,000 to 70,000.
Then, when Bitcoin becomes a national strategic reserve, rather than gambling on its volatility, it is better to ally with time.
The U.S. government's Bitcoin strategic reserve plan is essentially a response to the crisis of dollar hegemony after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The Trump administration's inclusion of 200,000 seized Bitcoins in a 'never-sell' national reserve echoes the logic of locking gold prices at $35 per ounce in 1934 (Gold Strategic Reserve Act).
1. Competition for pricing power of scarcity: The fixed supply of 21 million coins makes Bitcoin the 'non-sovereign gold' of the digital age, while the U.S. is attempting to monopolize its pricing power through reserves.
2. Debt crisis hedging tool: The $35 trillion U.S. government debt Ponzi dilemma forces the government to seek asset anchors beyond traditional gold—Bitcoin's annualized 200% return history and institutional holdings (such as BlackRock's 574,000 BTC) make it a potential tool for debt dilution.
3. Geofinancial weaponization: When countries like El Salvador break through the dollar settlement system with Bitcoin, the U.S. reserve strategy is essentially 'defeating magic with magic', reconstructing the financial moat of the digital Cold War era.
Former U.S. President Trump claimed to turn Bitcoin's strategic reserve into a digital Fort Knox, meaning that it is analogous to the gold strategic reserve, which is mainly stored in the largest gold vault in the U.S., located in Fort Knox, Kentucky. The total amount of U.S. gold reserves reaches 8,133 tons, the highest in the world, of which Fort Knox holds 4,580 tons, making it the largest vault.
These policy trends directly raise the valuation baseline of Bitcoin. Historical data shows that after gold was included in the U.S. strategic reserves, its price increased more than 70 times over 70 years; while Bitcoin, with institutional holdings exceeding 5%, has only just begun its 'digital gold' premium channel.
As Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler said: "In an irrational market, the most rational strategy is to acknowledge that you cannot beat the market."
The era of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve is essentially a 'Noah's Ark' race before the collapse of the old financial order. When sovereign capital votes with real money, the optimal strategy for individuals is not to predict the storm, but to board the sturdiest ship.
After all, in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the code of Bitcoin is replacing the atoms of gold, writing a new monetary scripture.
"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." — Mark Twain
"The time of market irrationality can be long enough for you to go bankrupt" — but if your holdings align with the machinery of the state, irrationality will ultimately crown you.
Let me remind you that the threshold for crypto investment is particularly high. If you do not have enough time to immerse yourself in the industry, the best choice is to buy only Bitcoin when the opportunity window arrives; this is the most stable and certain move.
Above.
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