星火投研Alpha
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It’s great to use two-way AI quantification
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Spark Morning News | November 24 Overnight Important Updates
21:00-7:00 Keywords: Tether, Steve Demetriou, Solana
1. Tether has minted an additional 2 billion USDT on Ethereum;
2. Musk: Crazy government spending is driving the U.S. into bankruptcy;
3. Vaneck: Regulatory environment remains a decisive factor for Bitcoin's future;
4. Prediction market data shows an 85% chance of reaching $100,000 for $BTC by the end of the year;
5. Pro-crypto figure Steve Demetriou elected as the new Majority Whip of Ohio;
6. TYMIO founder: By the end of 2025, the price of $BTC may reach $180,000;
7. VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research: The possibility of a Solana ETF being listed next year is extremely high.
21:00-7:00 Keywords: Tether, Steve Demetriou, Solana
1. Tether has minted an additional 2 billion USDT on Ethereum;
2. Musk: Crazy government spending is driving the U.S. into bankruptcy;
3. Vaneck: Regulatory environment remains a decisive factor for Bitcoin's future;
4. Prediction market data shows an 85% chance of reaching $100,000 for $BTC by the end of the year;
5. Pro-crypto figure Steve Demetriou elected as the new Majority Whip of Ohio;
6. TYMIO founder: By the end of 2025, the price of $BTC may reach $180,000;
7. VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research: The possibility of a Solana ETF being listed next year is extremely high.
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On November 14, Musk commented on the New York Post's report on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), saying that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) still has many opportunities.
Dogecoin UI designer DogeDesigner commented that it is time to change the country through $DOGE. Musk replied, yes. #BTC冲破9万
Dogecoin UI designer DogeDesigner commented that it is time to change the country through $DOGE. Musk replied, yes. #BTC冲破9万
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Musk has long supported Trump, even publicly binding himself closely with Trump, stating that if Trump loses, he will leave the United States. Today, following Trump's soaring campaign, $BTC surged, and related to Musk, $DOGE also skyrocketed over 30%. The Trump concept Meme MAGA also rose over 30%. However, behind this frenzy, while there are certainly many speculative opportunities, one must also be cautious of the upcoming pullback.
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2024 Trump Election: The "Earthquake" and New Situation in the Cryptocurrency Market
1. The election is over, and Trump is back as the king
On November 5, 2024, the US election kicked off at local time. Eligible voters in 51 constituencies across the country voted indirectly according to the Electoral College system. In the end, Trump came like a king and secured victory with an absolute advantage of 270 votes. This result was like a huge stone thrown into the global financial lake, stirring up thousands of waves.
2. Cryptocurrency: Trump’s Carnival
1. Bitcoin’s surge
Trump on Bitcoin
The promises made at the 2024 meeting are still fresh in our minds. After the election, the $BTC market took off. The price of $BTC took off like a rocket, setting a new record high in one fell swoop, breaking through $75,000, and 24
On November 5, 2024, the US election kicked off at local time. Eligible voters in 51 constituencies across the country voted indirectly according to the Electoral College system. In the end, Trump came like a king and secured victory with an absolute advantage of 270 votes. This result was like a huge stone thrown into the global financial lake, stirring up thousands of waves.
2. Cryptocurrency: Trump’s Carnival
1. Bitcoin’s surge
Trump on Bitcoin
The promises made at the 2024 meeting are still fresh in our minds. After the election, the $BTC market took off. The price of $BTC took off like a rocket, setting a new record high in one fell swoop, breaking through $75,000, and 24
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🍸The entire cryptocurrency community focuses on the US elections!
🗽To witness this important moment together with everyone
$BTC 108888
________________________________________
🗽To witness this important moment together with everyone
$BTC 108888
________________________________________
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The prelude begins, the election results will be the real market, entering with a fluctuation of 10,000 dollars around $BTC
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There is no technical aspect to speak of, everything depends on whether the Americans are hawkish or dovish. The future month after tonight will be a turning point for the continuation of bulls and bears. It's either to liquidate or hold until the end of time, there are no other options! #美国大选后涨或跌？ #美国选情僵持
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Pay attention to the gray scale and the giant whales are all turning BTC outward, the market on the 6th will be significant, a needle in the sky and earth, a space of $15,000, at this moment all technical analysis is just talk, set your orders in advance and wait for the results, Trump has been holding since he took office, haha, clear out during the rebound, fight again next year!!!#美国大选后涨或跌？ #美国大选后叙事观察
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[Breaking News] Trump’s election may ignite the BTC market, in-depth analysis of data and prospects
1. Polymarket data suggests Trump has a good chance of winning
On November 5, the data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket was like a bright light, illuminating the 2024
The fog of the 2020 US presidential election. Data shows that former US President Trump’s chances of winning this election have been rising all the way, and now it has reached 61.8%. Behind this data is Polymarket
Unique operating mechanism. It accurately captures the market's expectations for various events through user betting, just like a keen market sentiment detector. Different from traditional polls, it focuses more on the flow of funds, just like tracking the currents in the financial ocean. This method has attracted more than
On November 5, the data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket was like a bright light, illuminating the 2024
The fog of the 2020 US presidential election. Data shows that former US President Trump’s chances of winning this election have been rising all the way, and now it has reached 61.8%. Behind this data is Polymarket
Unique operating mechanism. It accurately captures the market's expectations for various events through user betting, just like a keen market sentiment detector. Different from traditional polls, it focuses more on the flow of funds, just like tracking the currents in the financial ocean. This method has attracted more than
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US Election: The Turbulence of Financial Markets and Cryptocurrencies
1. The relationship between the election outcome and the market
2024
The US election has reached a critical point
The 'final battle': will the presidency go to Harris (the possibility of the first female president) or Trump (a comeback), full of suspense. In this process, the cryptocurrency sector has become a significant focus.
The 'new battlefield'. Trump's remarks significantly affect Bitcoin prices, and Musk's close relationship with Dogecoin and strong support for Trump make the Bitcoin and virtual asset market seem closely tied to this 'political and business alliance'.
Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $70,000, and Trump's election situation is crucial for its breakout.
2024
The US election has reached a critical point
The 'final battle': will the presidency go to Harris (the possibility of the first female president) or Trump (a comeback), full of suspense. In this process, the cryptocurrency sector has become a significant focus.
The 'new battlefield'. Trump's remarks significantly affect Bitcoin prices, and Musk's close relationship with Dogecoin and strong support for Trump make the Bitcoin and virtual asset market seem closely tied to this 'political and business alliance'.
Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $70,000, and Trump's election situation is crucial for its breakout.
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Get ready for next week's needle
Plan ahead on the needle tip
My suggestion is:
BTC: Upper limit 78000U Lower limit 58000U
The chance to get rich (negative) is only once
Trump wins: BTC—>10w👆
Harris wins: **&#（（￥*@&&@！（*（*&￥&#美国大选后涨或跌？
Plan ahead on the needle tip
My suggestion is:
BTC: Upper limit 78000U Lower limit 58000U
The chance to get rich (negative) is only once
Trump wins: BTC—>10w👆
Harris wins: **&#（（￥*@&&@！（*（*&￥&#美国大选后涨或跌？
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❗The trading week started with difficulty. The US election and FOMC meeting made the market unpredictable, and the market makers may stir up trouble. If you are not sure, don't trade.
The vote count and the announcement of the election results on Wednesday are the first wave of impact, and the interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting is the second wave. Both will violently stir the market. Although there is support in the 6.66w - 6.54w range, you can't just look at it. The election anxiety has made risk aversion strong and the flow of funds has changed. No matter who is elected, there is a high probability of "heaven and earth needle" fluctuations.
For BTC, going long before the election will push up the price of the currency. After the election, the new economic structure is risky and capital will withdraw. Look forward to a new high on the weekly line, but be careful of the November fluctuations that form the top of the large cycle.
Don't rely on the monthly line for analysis. It has a strong lag and is the result of the convergence of small-level market conditions. There are few opportunities to make orders based on it and it is difficult to grasp short-term changes.
【Interpretation of important events this week】
🎋 US presidential election (Tuesday): Global attention, the results affect the global economy and finance, the policy agenda affects all aspects of the economy, and is the main cause of market fluctuations.
🎋 ISM non-manufacturing PMI data (Tuesday): Measures non-manufacturing economic activities, reflects vitality and potential, and affects economic expectations and asset prices.
🎋 Initial jobless claims (Thursday): A barometer of the job market, related to consumption and economic growth, and also affects monetary policy and market funds.
🎋 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (Thursday): A global financial event that affects multiple markets, and interest rate changes affect companies and investors.
🎋 Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Friday): Reflects economic health and affects consumption and market trends.
🎋 15% S&P 500 company earnings: It is an economic representative, and earnings affect market valuations and trends.
$BTC $ETH
The vote count and the announcement of the election results on Wednesday are the first wave of impact, and the interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting is the second wave. Both will violently stir the market. Although there is support in the 6.66w - 6.54w range, you can't just look at it. The election anxiety has made risk aversion strong and the flow of funds has changed. No matter who is elected, there is a high probability of "heaven and earth needle" fluctuations.
For BTC, going long before the election will push up the price of the currency. After the election, the new economic structure is risky and capital will withdraw. Look forward to a new high on the weekly line, but be careful of the November fluctuations that form the top of the large cycle.
Don't rely on the monthly line for analysis. It has a strong lag and is the result of the convergence of small-level market conditions. There are few opportunities to make orders based on it and it is difficult to grasp short-term changes.
【Interpretation of important events this week】
🎋 US presidential election (Tuesday): Global attention, the results affect the global economy and finance, the policy agenda affects all aspects of the economy, and is the main cause of market fluctuations.
🎋 ISM non-manufacturing PMI data (Tuesday): Measures non-manufacturing economic activities, reflects vitality and potential, and affects economic expectations and asset prices.
🎋 Initial jobless claims (Thursday): A barometer of the job market, related to consumption and economic growth, and also affects monetary policy and market funds.
🎋 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (Thursday): A global financial event that affects multiple markets, and interest rate changes affect companies and investors.
🎋 Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Friday): Reflects economic health and affects consumption and market trends.
🎋 15% S&P 500 company earnings: It is an economic representative, and earnings affect market valuations and trends.
$BTC $ETH
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Two major events this week:
Retail investors have many fantasies, such as Harris being elected, leading to a 50% drop in Bitcoin; Trump being elected, leading to a 100,000 surge in Bitcoin.
First, the election results on November 5 may be announced that night. Looking back at the day Trump was last elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, causing many people to lose their positions.
Second, the interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7. If interest rates are cut, a rally may follow; if not, the market is likely to continue its original trend. Based on non-farm data, a 25 basis point cut is expected this time. However, with both events happening, the situation is complex and may trigger significant volatility.
The structure of Bitcoin's market is clear, regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, it is difficult to disrupt. The market makers are responsible for maximizing market trends and their own interests, rather than being accountable to a particular candidate. Therefore, after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, market fluctuations may be far lower than most people expect, as has been verified multiple times, such as on the night of interest rate cuts or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference. The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, the market will spike up or down and then continue as usual. The structure of Bitcoin's market has undergone a series of actions over the past six months, including sharp declines, sideways consolidation, forced buying, and accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event. For market makers, the US election offers benefits by being both positively and negatively leveraged, increasing volatility, and generating market divergence, providing a narrative to tell, making it the most advantageous tool for market makers to tell stories after ETFs.
Retail investors have many fantasies, such as Harris being elected, leading to a 50% drop in Bitcoin; Trump being elected, leading to a 100,000 surge in Bitcoin.
First, the election results on November 5 may be announced that night. Looking back at the day Trump was last elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, causing many people to lose their positions.
Second, the interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7. If interest rates are cut, a rally may follow; if not, the market is likely to continue its original trend. Based on non-farm data, a 25 basis point cut is expected this time. However, with both events happening, the situation is complex and may trigger significant volatility.
The structure of Bitcoin's market is clear, regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, it is difficult to disrupt. The market makers are responsible for maximizing market trends and their own interests, rather than being accountable to a particular candidate. Therefore, after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, market fluctuations may be far lower than most people expect, as has been verified multiple times, such as on the night of interest rate cuts or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference. The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, the market will spike up or down and then continue as usual. The structure of Bitcoin's market has undergone a series of actions over the past six months, including sharp declines, sideways consolidation, forced buying, and accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event. For market makers, the US election offers benefits by being both positively and negatively leveraged, increasing volatility, and generating market divergence, providing a narrative to tell, making it the most advantageous tool for market makers to tell stories after ETFs.
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