Two major events this week:

Retail investors have many fantasies, such as Harris being elected, leading to a 50% drop in Bitcoin; Trump being elected, leading to a 100,000 surge in Bitcoin.

First, the election results on November 5 may be announced that night. Looking back at the day Trump was last elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, causing many people to lose their positions.

Second, the interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7. If interest rates are cut, a rally may follow; if not, the market is likely to continue its original trend. Based on non-farm data, a 25 basis point cut is expected this time. However, with both events happening, the situation is complex and may trigger significant volatility.

The structure of Bitcoin's market is clear, regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, it is difficult to disrupt. The market makers are responsible for maximizing market trends and their own interests, rather than being accountable to a particular candidate. Therefore, after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, market fluctuations may be far lower than most people expect, as has been verified multiple times, such as on the night of interest rate cuts or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference. The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, the market will spike up or down and then continue as usual. The structure of Bitcoin's market has undergone a series of actions over the past six months, including sharp declines, sideways consolidation, forced buying, and accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event. For market makers, the US election offers benefits by being both positively and negatively leveraged, increasing volatility, and generating market divergence, providing a narrative to tell, making it the most advantageous tool for market makers to tell stories after ETFs.