1. The election is over, and Trump is back as the king
On November 5, 2024, the US election kicked off at local time. Eligible voters in 51 constituencies across the country voted indirectly according to the Electoral College system. In the end, Trump came like a king and secured victory with an absolute advantage of 270 votes. This result was like a huge stone thrown into the global financial lake, stirring up thousands of waves.
2. Cryptocurrency: Trump’s Carnival
1. Bitcoin’s surge
Trump on Bitcoin
The promises made at the 2024 meeting are still fresh in our minds. After the election, the $BTC market took off. The price of $BTC took off like a rocket, setting a new record high in one fell swoop, breaking through $75,000, and 24
Hourly increase of about
10%. This is not only a digital jump, but also the market's enthusiastic response to Trump's election. Altcoins are not to be outdone, ushering in a long-awaited feast of general gains, and the entire cryptocurrency market is沸腾.
(II) Historical data witness
Looking back on Trump's previous term, Bitcoin rose by 3900%, from US$898 when he took office to US$35900 on the last day of his administration. This astonishing data, like a wealth legend, makes investors full of reverie about the cryptocurrency market in the Trump era.
3. Double-way奔赴: Trump and cryptocurrency indissoluble bond
(I) Trump's political resume
This
78-year-old legend, Donald John Trump, was a well-known entrepreneur and media celebrity before entering politics. He served as the President of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Although he failed in his re-election campaign in 2020
Years later, he made a comeback and was successfully elected. His political career has been full of twists and turns. He is the first former president in American history to be impeached twice and convicted of a felony, but this did not affect his victory in this election.
(II) Close ties between the encryption industry and Trump
In
In the 2024 campaign, the encryption industry has become a strong backer of Trump, contributing a lot of money to him. In the second quarter of this year, Trump's campaign team raised 750
Ten thousand US dollars in cryptocurrency. In August, at the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville, Tennessee, Trump revealed that the campaign team had raised US$25 million since accepting cryptocurrency donations. As
Bitcoin Magazine CEO said: “This is the second-highest amount of funds raised by Trump in his three presidential campaigns, from a combination of industry and whales/OGs.”
In addition, according to the Federal Election Commission’s documents, Trump personally owned US$100,000 to US$250,000 worth of cryptocurrency in 2022, and his campaign raised a total of US$2.21
100 million, with US$128 million in cash on hand.
4. Trump's reversal of attitude towards encryption and policy planning blueprint
(I) Attitude change
Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrency has taken a 180-degree turn. During his last term, he repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, calling them “not money”, built on “thin air”, and even accusing Bitcoin of being a “scam” and believing that it could facilitate illegal activities. However, during this campaign, he has transformed himself into an active supporter of cryptocurrency.
(II) Policy commitments
He made a series of heavy commitments to the crypto market. First, he threatened to replace the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman
Gary Gensler, who is critical of cryptocurrencies, if re-elected. Second, the government will 100%
Keep the Bitcoin it owns, so that the United States can take the lead in the field of cryptocurrency. In addition, Trump's official store already supports Bitcoin to pay for goods, including shoes, perfumes and other goods.
(III) Family's enthusiasm for encryption
Not only Trump himself, but his family members have also entered the field of encryption. Eldest son
Donald Trump Jr. claimed that Bitcoin is a means of hedging against inflation and authoritarian governments, and also opened a Telegram channel “The DeFiant
Ones”, and is preparing to launch a cryptocurrency project. The second son, Eric Trump, also said that he will soon launch a cryptocurrency project related to “digital real estate”, and also bluntly said that he fell in love with cryptocurrency /
DeFi.
(4) The story of encryption in the timeline
Throughout the campaign, Trump's actions around cryptocurrency continued. 11
At the beginning of the month, he congratulated the Bitcoin white paper on its 16th anniversary and said that he would end Harris's “war” on cryptocurrency and allow Bitcoin to flourish in the United States. In October, he vowed to “save”
Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, revisiting the early story of Bitcoin. 9
In September, he emphasized the importance of security measures for cryptocurrency companies and the establishment of a legal cryptocurrency framework, proposing to embrace cryptocurrency and surpass traditional big banks. In August, he prepared to announce a plan to make the United States the world's
“Crypto Capital”. At the Bitcoin 2024
At the conference, he showed his preference for the encryption industry. He emphasized that participating in the conference was to make the United States a leader in the field of encryption, become the world's encryption capital and Bitcoin superpower, and praised Bitcoin as
“A miracle of cooperation and human achievement”, if not embraced, the United States will lose its dominance. He also reiterated that he would fire SEC Chairman Gary on the first day of his election.
Gensler, implement the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, and appoint the Bitcoin/cryptocurrency presidential advisory committee.
V. Bulls and bears博弈 after the election: institutional market outlook
(I) Bullish camp
Bernstein: Raises Bitcoin price target, says a Trump win could push Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $80,000-$90,000 by his January 20, 2025 inauguration.
The ETF Store President: Predicts a spot Ethereum ETF is inevitable and a Trump presidency would accelerate the timeline, with net inflows into Ethereum ETFs likely to follow.
Standard Chartered Analyst: A Trump win could help push Bitcoin to $125,000 by year-end. If Republicans sweep Congress, Bitcoin could see increased volatility, potentially sparking a new altcoin season.
(II) Bear camp
Adjunct Professor at Columbia University Business School: Trump's presidency could have a “negative” impact on Memecoin because it could prompt US regulators to refocus on important areas such as DApps, leading to a prolonged bear market, making it easier for investors to lose money on Memecoins.
Economist Peter Schiff: Bitcoin could fall due to “Trump sell-off”. He believes that as Trump's approval rating rises, Bitcoin has not risen along with other Trump-related assets, which is due to reduced demand caused by speculators buying in advance, and that gold has a more prominent safe-haven advantage under inflationary pressure and is entering a bull market.
Wealth management firm Mirabaud Group: While Trump's victory could bring benefits to cryptocurrencies, there are also risks. Its potential government could lift the Biden administration's regulatory crackdown, introduce a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, etc., attracting investment and innovation, but it could also increase the risk of fraud and weaken consumer protection.
Swyftx chief analyst: While a Trump win could give cryptocurrencies a “dopamine hit,” traders need to be cautious.
VI. Conclusion: Outlook for a Historic Moment
The election of Trump is undoubtedly a historic milestone for the encryption industry. Given his many previous commitments and positive statements to the encryption industry, Bitcoin broke through its historical high on the day of his election and sprinted towards new unknown heights. The future of the encryption industry, like a magnificent painting, unfolds before our eyes, full of infinite possibilities, and its boundaries are expected to continue to expand. Let's wait and see.
