1. The relationship between the election outcome and the market



2024
The US election has reached a critical point
The 'final battle': will the presidency go to Harris (the possibility of the first female president) or Trump (a comeback), full of suspense. In this process, the cryptocurrency sector has become a significant focus.
The 'new battlefield'. Trump's remarks significantly affect Bitcoin prices, and Musk's close relationship with Dogecoin and strong support for Trump make the Bitcoin and virtual asset market seem closely tied to this 'political and business alliance'.
Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $70,000, and Trump's election situation is crucial for its breakout.

The market has begun to bet on Trump's victory, with the 'Trump market' appearing in various fields such as US stocks, US bonds, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies.

In recent months, Bitcoin's trend has been highly synchronized with Trump's election odds, and the key situation in the seven swing states has become crucial for the market. Traders from Wall Street to Silicon Valley are positioning based on this expectation in both traditional finance and digital currency sectors. However, the variables in the election are significant, and investors need to be prepared for fluctuations.

2. The impact of Trump's victory on the market

(1) Traditional financial market

  1. Monetary policy: It is expected that Trump will maintain a loose monetary environment, which is favorable for risk assets such as US stocks, especially in the industrial and traditional energy sectors. Meanwhile, US bond yields have an upward trend.

  2. Tax policy: The tendency to reduce domestic corporate tax rates and impose tariffs on foreign goods will push up prices of industrial commodities such as copper and oil, which will also benefit technology companies.

  3. International relations: If Trump takes office, he may end the Russia-Ukraine war within days and continue adjusting diplomatic policies in the Middle East, which may affect military stock trends but overall benefit market stability.


(2) Digital currency market

  1. Bitcoin breakout: Due to its deep binding with Trump, and Trump's support for including Bitcoin in national reserves and replacing the SEC chairman, these proposals may be fulfilled after he takes office, and Bitcoin is expected to break new highs.

  2. Dogecoin opportunity: Musk's deep connection with Dogecoin may help push it back to the spotlight with Trump's victory.

  3. WLF and DeFi ecology: The WLF supported by the Trump family may become a focus, driving the prosperity of the DeFi ecology and pushing Ethereum prices up.


3. The impact of Harris's victory on the market

(1) Traditional financial market

  1. Tax policy: Harris advocates raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, increasing the corporate tax rate, and financing through financial transaction taxes, which will affect corporate profits but benefit public finance.

  2. Fiscal expenditure: Support for universal healthcare, expanding social welfare, and promoting the development of the 'care economy' will benefit the healthcare and social services sectors, and the $10 trillion climate plan will significantly benefit the new energy industry.

  3. Market direction: Market expectations have been disrupted, and the stock market may experience significant fluctuations. The market needs to find a new direction after the new government's policies become clear and investors adjust their expectations.

(2) Digital currency market



  1. Regulatory situation: The strong regulatory approach may continue, with the SEC's law enforcement efforts remaining unchanged, impacting the institutionalization process of cryptocurrencies.

  2. Market direction: Since the market has already priced in Trump's victory, if Harris wins, Bitcoin may pull back; according to Bernstein's forecast, it may fall by 10% by the end of the year, and the market needs to rebuild its valuation logic.

  3. Delayed institutional entry: Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrency is ambiguous; while supporting development, there are no policy details, which may affect investor confidence and delay institutional entry.

4. Outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2025 after Trump's election


(1) Positive factors


Positive policies for cryptocurrencies will be implemented, such as inclusion in reserve assets, restructuring the SEC framework, and improving regulatory policies, driving the market to a temporary peak.

(2) Negative factors

  1. The effect of short-term financial stimulus policies is weakening; the US economy may face recession and stagflation, and a rush of funds into Bitcoin may lead to its excessive speculation.

  2. If a black swan event occurs during Trump's administration, the digital currency market may experience a sharp decline; the excessive binding of Bitcoin to specific individuals carries risks.



    In summary, during the US election period, investors should stay alert, pay attention to changes in policies and market expectations, control risks, and avoid being swayed by short-term emotions. It should be made clear that the content of this article does not constitute a basis for buying or selling; investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!