Is everyone feeling like they haven't made money yet, while the market is already starting to shout about turning bearish, with various messages leaving us confused? Bitcoin's weekly chart is facing a MACD death cross, while Ethereum is struggling to maintain support. Recently, Trend Research, which gained impressive results by bullishly calling ETH from the bottom, had firmly held a bullish outlook on the Ethereum ecosystem, but this morning chose to quietly liquidate PENDLE and ENS at a loss.

At such moments, should we hold on or retreat?

The game between Ethereum and Bitcoin stirred by the whales

In the past two weeks, the protagonist of the crypto market has been an ancient whale. His massive sell-off of BTC for ETH can be said to be the 'culprit' behind the weakening of Bitcoin's market. This big player has accumulated a total of 34,110 BTC sold off, cashing out about $3.7 billion, and bought 813,298.84 ETH worth about $3.66 billion. Currently, he still holds 49,816 BTC in his remaining two wallets, valued at about $6 billion. The question is: will he continue to sell? How much? Like a sword yet to fall, it hangs over Bitcoin's head. One can only say, the sellers are too strong.

For Ethereum, the whales' reshuffling is obviously a positive sign. This may be one of the important reasons why ETH is currently stronger than BTC. However, the next two weeks will not be easy for Ethereum, as there are currently 932,246 ETH waiting to be unstaked, representing a potential sell-off of about $400 million that could impact the market.

Now it depends on the actions of the whales; if they can absorb Ethereum, it will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in Bitcoin. A game of existing stock is still ongoing.

The collision of data and interest rate cuts

In the coming weeks, the global market's focus will almost entirely be on the Federal Reserve. Today's CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 87.4%, and investors are betting that the Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of easing.

And this week is indeed a 'super week' with the ADP non-farm employment data, ISM services PMI, and especially the core non-farm employment report, all of which will impact the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting decisions on September 16-17. If a series of data, especially non-farm data, shows weakness, the market may bet that the Federal Reserve will start interest rate cuts faster and earlier; if the overall performance is strong, it will weaken market expectations for rate cuts. Regardless of the outcome, the market is destined for significant volatility this week.

Powell's speech on the evening of August 22, although signaling a dovish stance, did not provide strong guidance on the persistence and magnitude of interest rate cuts. In the current context of the United States facing higher tariffs and tightened immigration policies, both employment and inflation risks coexist. If inflation risks surpass employment, the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate cuts. Even a 25 basis point cut in September does not signify the start of a sustained easing cycle. If 'stagflation-like' pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma, and market volatility may increase. The September FOMC meeting could become a watershed moment for market direction. Bitcoin remains a belief, but caution is needed in the short term.

If we hope for substantial fluctuations in altcoins, we must rely on Bitcoin (upward break) to drive the market, but currently, Bitcoin's performance does not meet the bulls' expectations.

This week, U.S. employment data is about to be released, and Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. If the price further declines, it may surprise most traders, but this risk cannot be ignored. Historical experience shows that interest rate cuts are often seen as a positive for the crypto market, but they are usually accompanied by setbacks.

From a short-term valuation perspective, if Bitcoin cannot quickly recover to $112,000, the downside support level is around $100,000. The current price of BTC is reported to be $107,420.

Today's fear index is 46, indicating a state of panic.

In the short term, Bitcoin has already lost its bullish trend. However, the $100,000 to $105,000 region is a potential support level. It is still an ideal phase to continue accumulating.

Today is a holiday in the U.S., and the stock market is closed, so it's rare for a pure crypto event to impact the market. The performance of other mainstream coins and market sentiment can serve as a barometer for the current crypto space. Let's see if the market experiences the 'TRUMP coin liquidity drain effect': the Trump coin siphons off liquidity, causing other coins to perform poorly. The market has begun to show signs of decline recently, especially BTC, which has historically dropped in August. Hopefully, WLFI can bring some positive influence to the market.