The current trading price of Bitcoin is close to 112,000 USD, consolidating within the range of 104,000 - 116,000 USD. The Unspent Transaction Output Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that investors have accumulated within the range of 108,000 - 116,000 USD. This phenomenon reflects active buying behavior on dips in the market, but does not rule out the possibility of further declines in the short to medium term.
The price has fallen below the 0.95 percentile cost benchmark, marking the end of a three and a half month frenzy phase, returning to the range of 104,000 - 114,000 USD. Historically, this range often serves as a consolidation channel before the next clear trend formation.
Falling below $104,100 may repeat the 'exhaustion after setting a historical high' trend in this cycle;
Recovering $114,300 indicates that demand is stabilizing, and the market is regaining trend dominance.
During the sell-off period, the profit ratio of short-term holders (STH) dropped sharply from a high to 42%, then rebounded to 60%. This rebound puts the market in a neutral but fragile state. Only when the price recovers the range of $114,000 - $116,000 can the upward trend be confirmed.
Off-chain sentiment is cooling down: the futures funding rate remains neutral but is susceptible to shocks, and ETF capital inflows have slowed significantly. Bitcoin ETF capital flows mainly reflect directional spot demand, while Ethereum ETF capital flows are a mix of spot demand and 'spot-futures arbitrage'.
Altcoins are facing general pressure.
The weakness of Bitcoin is also accompanied by a general pullback in the altcoin market. Over the past week, most of the top ten major assets have seen significant declines.
Ethereum (ETH) is a typical example: after reaching a historical high, despite large institutions and ETFs steadily increasing their holdings, the ETH price still rapidly and significantly corrected. This indicates that even assets seen as pillars of the altcoin ecosystem struggle to avoid the spillover effects of Bitcoin's overall volatility.
Given the current situation, this period of correction is not necessarily a negative signal; rather, it can serve as a 'test' before the market enters an exciting period at the end of the year. If history repeats itself, September will continue to be a mid-term bottom, laying a foundation for Bitcoin and even the entire cryptocurrency market to enter a new growth cycle in the fourth quarter.
Today's fear index is 51, down to a neutral state.
Last night, the market saw a slight upward trend due to the U.S. releasing JOLTS data that was lower than expected. This situation is favorable for interest rate cuts, so both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market turned optimistic. However, the real employment situation needs to wait for the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. Tonight, the U.S. will first announce the small non-farm payrolls, unemployment numbers, and ISM services PMI. Although the main course is on Friday, there is a lot of employment-related data expected to bring some volatility to the market tonight. Currently, the trend appears optimistic, and as long as the non-farm payroll data does not show major issues, the chances of an interest rate cut in September will be very high. But it is also important to pay attention to the risks related to favorable outcomes. Planning for September deployment after the trend is confirmed on Friday is also an option.
