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Is this market a rebound or a reversal?

From the current economic and political situation, it seems more like an emotional recovery rebound after an excessive drop, and it's still too early to talk about a trend reversal.

Currently, the rise and fall are still dominated by Trump's policy signals, and there are no substantial benefits from the economic fundamentals. In terms of volume, this rise is a shrinking rebound, with trading volume gently increasing and fund inflow not being obvious, lacking the momentum for a trend reversal.

A true reversal is usually accompanied by a sustained increase in trading volume, significant fund inflows, and major benefits from policies or fundamentals.

For example, if the Federal Reserve eases or economic data exceeds expectations. Therefore, the GDP data to be announced at the end of the month will be crucial. If the data performs strongly, the market may rise further.

On the contrary, the upward momentum may quickly fade. Until the fundamentals are clear, any rise should be regarded as a rebound, especially in the case of a shrinking rise. #加密货币总市值重回3万亿 #特朗普称无意解雇鲍威尔

The key focus on ETH discussed on Monday is the resistance level at 172020. If it breaks through, the target is set in the range of 1800-2000. Today, the highest was around 1818, and the lower end of the target range has been reached. Those who bought at the lower end can consider reducing a portion of their position, while the rest continues to look towards the 2000 level.
#波场ETF #加密市场反弹

According to a comprehensive analysis of market information, the current Bitcoin breakout is primarily driven by four key factors:

1. Policy Expectations: The Trump team has released positive signals indicating a significant reduction in tariffs on China, leading to a notable recovery in market risk appetite. As a sensitive asset to macro liquidity, cryptocurrencies responded first.

2. Regulatory Dynamics: The new SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, has recently conveyed a moderate stance on cryptocurrency regulation. His professional background (having taught a blockchain course at MIT) has raised market expectations for an accelerated compliance process.

3. Institutional Fund Movements: Four major institutions—BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and ARK Invest—have formed a buying resonance at critical moments. Notably, their timing coincided precisely with the release of market news. Data shows that yesterday's net inflow reached $936.43 million, creating a significant capital-driven effect.

4. Market Sentiment Effect: MicroStrategy, as a corporate indicator for holding Bitcoin, has publicly stated its intention to continue increasing its Bitcoin holdings, forming a "leader-follower" linkage with institutional funds. It is important to note that this round has a typical market uplift pattern of "pre-news anticipation - post-fund verification."
#加密市场反弹 #美股下挫

Intraday Market Analysis

BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the overbought zone, while the daily level has returned to a healthy level. A slight pullback is expected during the day, with support at 91000-91500 and resistance at 93500-94000.

ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the overbought zone, while the daily level has returned to a healthy level. A slight pullback is expected during the day, with support at 1650-1700 and resistance at 1800-1850.
#波场ETF #美股下挫

Yesterday, BTC continued to rise, with a somewhat aggressive trend that exceeded expectations, related to the easing of tariffs by the reliable parties. Recent attention should still be paid to the tariff process and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process. A slight intraday correction is anticipated; those who previously accumulated can consider reducing their holdings. The long-term market is recovering, so be patient and wait.

The second coin followed BTC's rise, increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Those who entered the market earlier can consider reducing their holdings. The large holdings should wait patiently for stabilization, with a slight intraday correction expected and a recovery trend.

Altcoins are slightly rising in sync with mainstream currencies, but the increase is not large. Be patient and wait for the mainstream to stabilize before taking action. Focus on the primary market; BSC is becoming more active, and it’s time to start directly buying MEME-type coins. The BSC ecosystem is expected to recover; CAKE can be monitored, and it remains healthy, so consider following up. Activity on the SOL chain has also seen some recovery, so pay more attention to MEME coins.

#美股下挫 #波场ETF

In the past few days, Bitcoin has strongly broken through the strong resistance level of 88,000, and the next stronger resistance area is between 95,000 and 98,000. It is expected to touch this position in the next couple of days.

In my personal opinion, breaking through 98,000 in the short term will be difficult, so reducing a portion of Bitcoin holdings at this position is a good choice. However, this does not mean that this wave of market movement has concluded. While Bitcoin pauses, altcoins may bloom one after another, showcasing the overall market enthusiasm.

In the medium to long term, it can be held continuously. In the short term, after reducing positions near 98,000, it can be considered to buy back when there is a significant pullback.

In the altcoin market, I only recommend holding spot. The direction of layout should focus on public chains with AI concepts and the DEFI sector, while considering the SOL ecosystem and Bitcoin's ecosystem as much as possible.

#美股下挫

Wall Street capital is like a hawk in the industry. From the 72 cryptocurrency ETF applications processed by regulatory agencies, it superficially appears as financial innovation, but it actually reflects the deep game of reconstructing the global capital landscape.

A leaked calculation model from a top investment bank's strategy department shows that if only SOL and XRP are approved by regulators, it will create a liquidity siphoning effect of over $200 billion.

It is noteworthy that multiple institutions are using financial engineering methods to anchor Bitcoin as the "value anchor of the digital age". One innovative ETF structure has even more creatively integrated the compound return mechanism of staking income and capital gains—this evolution of financial derivatives is essentially reconstructing the pricing coordinate system of global assets.

#币安HODLer空投HYPER

The market does not show any very obvious positive factors, so how did BTC rise? Here’s a perspective:

Weakening dollar → Safe-haven demand → Bitcoin rise → U.S. stock correlation risk → Operational focus → Risks and opportunities coexist

The weakening dollar is the core driving factor behind the recent rise in Bitcoin prices. The exchange rate fluctuations caused by ZC intervention have intensified global capital's demand for safe havens, making crypto assets a refuge for funds.

However, potential fluctuations in the U.S. stock market may affect the digital currency sector, and future market trends need to closely monitor the direction of the dollar index and the linkage effect with the U.S. stock market. The current market is in a complex environment where bullish and bearish factors intertwine, and we still need to pay attention to potential risks.

#中美贸易关系 #美联储独立性

Intraday Market Analysis

BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, while the daily level is below healthy levels. A slight increase is expected intraday, with support at 86000-86500 and resistance at 88500-89000.

ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, while the daily level is below healthy levels. A slight increase is expected intraday, with support at 1500-1550 and resistance at 1630-1680.

#美联储独立性 #币安2025Q1市占率

Yesterday, BTC experienced a slight rise, maintaining a healthy trend in line with recent expectations. The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, but BTC did not follow suit, performing independently, which is considered a positive signal. We still need to pay attention to the tariff process and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process in the near term. Expecting a consolidation during the day, previous holdings can be appropriately reduced.

The second coin did not rise in sync with BTC, experiencing a significant pullback during the early hours. Today, we need to focus on whether BTC can stabilize. Expecting consolidation; if it stabilizes, we can consider small accumulations and gradually enter the market, while larger holdings should wait patiently for stabilization.

Altcoins are consolidating in sync with mainstream assets, with little amplitude. We should patiently wait for the mainstream to stabilize before taking action. Focus on the primary market; BSC is becoming more active. It is time to start directly buying MEME-type coins. The BSC ecosystem is expected to recover, and we can pay attention to CAKE, which is currently maintaining a healthy status and can be considered for follow-up. Activity on the SOL chain has also seen some recovery, so we can pay more attention to MEME coins.

#币安Alpha上新 #加密市场反弹

The Binance Rice Giveaway Event Phase 11 is here. Participant qualifications:

Participants must purchase at least $20 worth of Binance Alpha tokens through the Binance Wallet (no key) or the spot/fund account of the Binance exchange from 00:00:00 on March 22, 2025, to 23:59:59 on April 20, 2025 (UTC).

Everyone can participate.
#币安HODLer空投HYPER

The bears will never be slaves. The proportion has almost reached 60%. Everyone thinks Bitcoin can't rise. The bears have been caught off guard quite a bit these days. In the current market, be cautious with contracts. Cherish your bullets.

#中美贸易关系 #币安2025Q1市占率

The trend of Bitcoin stands out, while other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, are relatively weak. I believe this situation is a normal phenomenon.

The consensus and number of people in the market leaning towards being short, doing swing trades, and looking for rebound shorts are continuously increasing. This atmosphere is also what the main players have hoped to cultivate in the market for so long. The purpose is to better harvest the positions of retail investors and pick up chips at lower prices.
#中美贸易关系 #波场ETF

Current market needs to pay attention to two major variables:
1) Will the dollar continue to depreciate sharply?

2) Will the dollar's plunge drag down the U.S. stock market? Unlike in the past, this time the dollar's weakness includes policy intervention factors, which have a more direct impact on Bitcoin. If the dollar index's decline triggers a correction in the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin's follow-up pullback will struggle to hold the 88000 level, requiring close attention to tonight's sentiment transmission in the U.S. stock market.
#美联储独立性

News to pay attention to this week:

On Tuesday at 21:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak. This is currently the most critical moment to see whether officials are aligned with Powell or leaning towards Trump.

On Wednesday, the G20 meeting will mainly discuss the economy, so the market will definitely react a bit.

On Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released, and this time frame may also have uncertain factors that could lead to significant movement.

This week, we will see if these events can bring some good liquidity to the market. Currently, the trend is still a rebound, and for a reversal, the market needs to show confidence. But who provides this confidence? Only Bitcoin. Right now, the biggest concern in the market still comes from Trump regarding tariffs. If he could calm down a bit, stabilize in April, start speculation on interest rate cuts in May, and initiate cuts in June, then the expected benefits would activate one after another. At this stage, the direction has not reversed, so it is still not suitable to operate with heavy positions.

Everyone fears his greed, and this saying is vividly embodied in this giant whale, with a purchase of 2400 ETH, worth 3.93 million dollars. In the past 10 days, this giant whale has bought 12010 ETH, worth 19.7 million dollars
#加密市场反弹

V God proposed to replace EVM with RISC-V, exploring new paths for Ethereum execution layer scalability. The Ethereum mainnet Pectra upgrade is scheduled for May 7th, this upgrade mainly addresses node staking issues, which is beneficial for the staking sector. Currently, the new SEC chairman is preparing to possibly approve ETH staking ETFs in the third quarter, which would be a significant advantage for ETH.
#波场ETF

Intraday Market Analysis

BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, while the daily level is below healthy levels. Mild upward movement is expected intraday, with support at 85500-86000 and resistance at 87500-88500.

ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, while the daily level is below healthy levels. Mild upward movement is expected intraday, with support at 1550-1600 and resistance at 1670-1720.
#币安2025Q1市占率

The daily BTC remains in consolidation, the trend remains healthy. This morning, there was a sudden surge in volume and a price increase, which aligns with recent expectations. Attention should still be paid to the tariff process and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. During the day, focus on the volume situation, as there is potential for further increases. Moderate follow-up may be considered, but the larger cycle still needs adjustment, waiting for confidence to be restored.

The second-tier coins are rising in sync with BTC, and their trends are returning to health. During the day, pay attention to BTC's price increase, and there is a possibility of following BTC's upward movement. Small investments can be considered, entering in batches, while larger investors should patiently wait for stabilization.

Altcoins are consolidating in line with mainstream trends, with not much fluctuation. Patience is needed to wait for the main trend to stabilize before taking action. Focus on the primary market, as BSC is becoming more active. It is time to start directly buying MEME-type coins. The BSC ecosystem is expected to recover, and CAKE can be monitored. It currently remains healthy and can be considered for follow-up. The activity on the SOL chain has somewhat recovered, so more attention can be paid to MEME coins.

#加密市场反弹

The taste of digital gold has emerged, Bitcoin has been talking around 80,000. If you want to switch positions, switch everything to BTC. Today's high is 87,450. Those who followed this have already gained over 7,000 in space. Those within the small circle who got in on this wave of Bitcoin have definitely already eaten their fill.
[Hehe]