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Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have significantly risen, with the probability jumping from 37.7% the previous day to 75.5%. This shift is attributed to the weak employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on August 1:
Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. More critically, the data for May and June was significantly revised down, with May's job addition lowered from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000.
The uncertainty of U.S. government tariff policies has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment among businesses, leading to a rapid deterioration of the labor market. Additionally, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the manufacturing PMI for July was 48%, down from 49% in June, further confirming the weakening economic trend.
#美联储利率决议
Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. More critically, the data for May and June was significantly revised down, with May's job addition lowered from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000.
The uncertainty of U.S. government tariff policies has intensified the wait-and-see sentiment among businesses, leading to a rapid deterioration of the labor market. Additionally, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the manufacturing PMI for July was 48%, down from 49% in June, further confirming the weakening economic trend.
#美联储利率决议
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Yesterday, BTC continued to decline, with a significant drop in the early morning. There was no obvious negative news, and the washing and adjustment may be larger. The 4-hour chart has entered the oversold range, so watch for rebound conditions. The daily level's downward momentum is amplifying, waiting for a repair. The weekly trend has shown some recovery, so pay more attention to fundamental information. The expectation for the day is a rebound from an oversold state.
The second-tier coins followed BTC's decline, breaking below the consolidation range on the 4-hour chart, with downward momentum amplifying. Watch for changes in volume and wait for a repair. The daily level's trend has broken down, focus on the changes in the 4-hour trend, with expectations for a rebound from an oversold state for the day.
Altcoins followed the mainstream decline, and the altcoin index has returned to a low level. Market sentiment is once again low, so pay attention to BTC's market share. There are signals for fiat currency purchases, to determine the initiation signal for altcoins. ETH-related tokens are heavily influenced by ETH, and PENDLE has retraced significantly, which could be considered for accumulation, waiting for a rebound.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the oversold range, the daily level has returned to normal levels, and the expectation for the day is a rebound from an oversold state. The intraday support is between 112500-113000, with resistance at 115000-116000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the oversold range, and the daily level is below a healthy level, with an expectation for a rebound from an oversold state. The intraday support is between 3400-3450, with resistance at 3600-3650.
#加密市场回调 #BTC #ETH
The second-tier coins followed BTC's decline, breaking below the consolidation range on the 4-hour chart, with downward momentum amplifying. Watch for changes in volume and wait for a repair. The daily level's trend has broken down, focus on the changes in the 4-hour trend, with expectations for a rebound from an oversold state for the day.
Altcoins followed the mainstream decline, and the altcoin index has returned to a low level. Market sentiment is once again low, so pay attention to BTC's market share. There are signals for fiat currency purchases, to determine the initiation signal for altcoins. ETH-related tokens are heavily influenced by ETH, and PENDLE has retraced significantly, which could be considered for accumulation, waiting for a rebound.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the oversold range, the daily level has returned to normal levels, and the expectation for the day is a rebound from an oversold state. The intraday support is between 112500-113000, with resistance at 115000-116000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the oversold range, and the daily level is below a healthy level, with an expectation for a rebound from an oversold state. The intraday support is between 3400-3450, with resistance at 3600-3650.
#加密市场回调 #BTC #ETH
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This gameplay is really disgusting to the extreme
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Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm payroll data is coming in heavy, previous value: 147,000, forecast: 110,000, unemployment rate previous value 4.1%, forecast: 4.2%. Every piece of data from now until September is crucial, as they will directly determine whether the interest rate cut will materialize in September; we must keep a close watch!
The current market is overall weak, caught in repeated fluctuations. Occasionally, some cryptocurrencies experience a 'spike' that triggers nerves, but it's merely a fleeting phenomenon. Retail investors are anxious and impatient, while the 'whales' are enjoying themselves. Those attempting to manipulate the 'sentiment-driven market' will ultimately be bitten back by market rules. The current situation is nothing but a blatant large-scale washout game. The 'whales' won’t allow retail investors to profit easily—beware of short-term volatility traps, and do not enter lightly.
Especially when the expectations for interest rate cuts are lowered, and the cracks within the Federal Reserve become clear, three factions are emerging:
The Doves: Worried about an imminent collapse of the job market, urgently calling for immediate monetary easing to save the market;
The Watchers: Want to observe the 'effects' of Trump’s tariffs and see if they can truly drag down the economy;
The Hardliners: Not shedding tears until they see the coffin, waiting for the economic data to deteriorate significantly before taking action.
However, interest rate cuts have become an unspoken endpoint. The real game lies in: When to cut? How to cut? What reason to provide for the cut?
#美联储利率决议 #美国初请失业金人数
The current market is overall weak, caught in repeated fluctuations. Occasionally, some cryptocurrencies experience a 'spike' that triggers nerves, but it's merely a fleeting phenomenon. Retail investors are anxious and impatient, while the 'whales' are enjoying themselves. Those attempting to manipulate the 'sentiment-driven market' will ultimately be bitten back by market rules. The current situation is nothing but a blatant large-scale washout game. The 'whales' won’t allow retail investors to profit easily—beware of short-term volatility traps, and do not enter lightly.
Especially when the expectations for interest rate cuts are lowered, and the cracks within the Federal Reserve become clear, three factions are emerging:
The Doves: Worried about an imminent collapse of the job market, urgently calling for immediate monetary easing to save the market;
The Watchers: Want to observe the 'effects' of Trump’s tariffs and see if they can truly drag down the economy;
The Hardliners: Not shedding tears until they see the coffin, waiting for the economic data to deteriorate significantly before taking action.
However, interest rate cuts have become an unspoken endpoint. The real game lies in: When to cut? How to cut? What reason to provide for the cut?
#美联储利率决议 #美国初请失业金人数
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Yesterday, BTC remained in consolidation and fell again in the early morning. There were no obvious negative signals, and the volatility may be greater. The 4-hour chart broke the consolidation range, so pay attention to the rebound situation. The downward momentum at the daily level has intensified, waiting for correction. The weekly trend has somewhat recovered; pay more attention to fundamental information. There is an expectation of a slight rebound during the day.
The second coin has started an independent trend, with another pullback in the early morning. The 4-hour chart is healthy, and the downward momentum has increased. Pay attention to changes in volume and wait for correction. The daily level trend is somewhat extreme, but the correction is good, and the volume remains healthy. The trend is healthy; watch for volume increase on the 4-hour chart, with an expectation of a slight rebound during the day.
Altcoins are following the mainstream with a synchronous pullback. The altcoin index remains at a moderate level, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered. Pay attention to BTC's market share to determine the signal for altcoins to start.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below healthy levels, while the daily level has returned to normal. There is an expectation of a slight rebound during the day, with support at 114500-115000 and resistance at 117000-118000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, and the daily level is back to a healthy level. There is an expectation of a slight rebound during the day, with support at 3650-3700 and resistance at 3800-3900.
#ETH #BTC
The second coin has started an independent trend, with another pullback in the early morning. The 4-hour chart is healthy, and the downward momentum has increased. Pay attention to changes in volume and wait for correction. The daily level trend is somewhat extreme, but the correction is good, and the volume remains healthy. The trend is healthy; watch for volume increase on the 4-hour chart, with an expectation of a slight rebound during the day.
Altcoins are following the mainstream with a synchronous pullback. The altcoin index remains at a moderate level, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered. Pay attention to BTC's market share to determine the signal for altcoins to start.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below healthy levels, while the daily level has returned to normal. There is an expectation of a slight rebound during the day, with support at 114500-115000 and resistance at 117000-118000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, and the daily level is back to a healthy level. There is an expectation of a slight rebound during the day, with support at 3650-3700 and resistance at 3800-3900.
#ETH #BTC
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Spot Password: CAKE
Enter directly around 2.89
BNB's recent trend is good, following its ecosystem, CAKE has stabilized after a pullback, a golden cross is expected to form on the 4-hour chart, there is a slight top divergence on the daily chart, but the impact is minimal, and it is expected to continue rising
#Cake
Enter directly around 2.89
BNB's recent trend is good, following its ecosystem, CAKE has stabilized after a pullback, a golden cross is expected to form on the 4-hour chart, there is a slight top divergence on the daily chart, but the impact is minimal, and it is expected to continue rising
#Cake
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昨日BTC保持盘整，凌晨鲍威尔发言偏鹰派，短时扎针，市场未受到降息延期影响，快速收回，是很好的信号，4小时走势修复健康，震荡整理，日线级别修复良好，走势回归健康，关注量能变化，周线走势有所恢复，多关注基本面信息，日内预期保持盘整，大周期方面周线新一轮上涨周期启动
二饼启动独立行情，4小时走势良好，轴上金叉即将成型，有望继续上涨，日线级别走势偏激，目前修复良好，量能保持健康，走势回归健康，关注4小时放量情况，日内预期有望上涨
山寨跟随主流同步上涨，山寨指数保持中等水平，市场情绪有所恢复，关注BTC市占率情况，法币买入信号，判断山寨启动信号
日内行情分析
BTC1小时、4小时级别回到正常水平，日线级别回到正常水平，日内预期保持盘整，日内下方支撑117500-118000，上方阻力119000-120000
ETH1小时、4小时级别回到正常水平，日线级别进入超买区间，日内预期有望上涨，日内下方支撑3750-3800，上方阻力3900-4000#BTC #ETH #美联储利率决议
二饼启动独立行情，4小时走势良好，轴上金叉即将成型，有望继续上涨，日线级别走势偏激，目前修复良好，量能保持健康，走势回归健康，关注4小时放量情况，日内预期有望上涨
山寨跟随主流同步上涨，山寨指数保持中等水平，市场情绪有所恢复，关注BTC市占率情况，法币买入信号，判断山寨启动信号
日内行情分析
BTC1小时、4小时级别回到正常水平，日线级别回到正常水平，日内预期保持盘整，日内下方支撑117500-118000，上方阻力119000-120000
ETH1小时、4小时级别回到正常水平，日线级别进入超买区间，日内预期有望上涨，日内下方支撑3750-3800，上方阻力3900-4000#BTC #ETH #美联储利率决议
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Yesterday, Powell's remarks were hawkish, and the hawkish stance was quite firm. A hawkish tone means there is not even a hint of dovishness. Therefore, the expectation for an interest rate cut in September is definitely going to decrease. As for the market, it is already good that there is not a widespread bearish sentiment. Although there was a spike in the early morning, the fact that it rebounded so quickly in response to such news is beyond expectations. This kind of trend proves that the bottom is very strong, and the capital is also resilient. It gives the impression that regardless of whether there will be an interest rate cut in September, I will just focus on my own buying, which does not affect the determination of retail investors to flood into the market.
Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference Key Points Summary:
1. Statement Overview: Maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time without change, in line with market expectations.
2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors voted against the decision.
3. Inflation Outlook: No changes made to the inflation wording, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated.
4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, with uncertainty about the outlook still high.
Powell Press Conference:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: Current policy position is favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting; cannot make decisions based on the June dot plot six weeks later, need to rely on data.
2. Inflation Outlook: June core PCE year-on-year increase may be 2.7%, overall PCE is expected to rise 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Federal Reserve's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be affected more by tariffs.
3. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a solid position, indicators show economic growth is slowing; does not believe the Inflation Reduction Act is particularly stimulating the economy.
4. Employment Outlook: The labor market is still in balance, and obvious downside risks exist.
5. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates have not changed much; reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% to 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.
6. Explanation of Disagreement: It is expected that the dissenters will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut rates, and it is not surprising that there is disagreement.
7. Market Reaction: Little volatility in the market following the statement, during Powell's speech, the daily drop in gold expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; U.S. Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38%, and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; U.S. stocks faced pressure and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000.
8. Other Matters: Before the announcement, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates this time and indicated that it would do so in September.
9. Latest Expectations: Market bets on rate cuts have cooled; as of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the year is 36 basis points, down from 44 basis points before the decision.#美联储利率决议
1. Statement Overview: Maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time without change, in line with market expectations.
2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors voted against the decision.
3. Inflation Outlook: No changes made to the inflation wording, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated.
4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, with uncertainty about the outlook still high.
Powell Press Conference:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: Current policy position is favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting; cannot make decisions based on the June dot plot six weeks later, need to rely on data.
2. Inflation Outlook: June core PCE year-on-year increase may be 2.7%, overall PCE is expected to rise 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Federal Reserve's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be affected more by tariffs.
3. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a solid position, indicators show economic growth is slowing; does not believe the Inflation Reduction Act is particularly stimulating the economy.
4. Employment Outlook: The labor market is still in balance, and obvious downside risks exist.
5. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates have not changed much; reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% to 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.
6. Explanation of Disagreement: It is expected that the dissenters will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut rates, and it is not surprising that there is disagreement.
7. Market Reaction: Little volatility in the market following the statement, during Powell's speech, the daily drop in gold expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; U.S. Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38%, and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; U.S. stocks faced pressure and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000.
8. Other Matters: Before the announcement, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates this time and indicated that it would do so in September.
9. Latest Expectations: Market bets on rate cuts have cooled; as of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the year is 36 basis points, down from 44 basis points before the decision.#美联储利率决议
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Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference Key Points Summary:
1. Statement Overview: Maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time without change, in line with market expectations.
2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors voted against the decision.
3. Inflation Outlook: No changes made to the inflation wording, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated.
4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, with uncertainty about the outlook still high.
Powell Press Conference:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: Current policy position is favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting; cannot make decisions based on the June dot plot six weeks later, need to rely on data.
2. Inflation Outlook: June core PCE year-on-year increase may be 2.7%, overall PCE is expected to rise 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Federal Reserve's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be affected more by tariffs.
3. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a solid position, indicators show economic growth is slowing; does not believe the Inflation Reduction Act is particularly stimulating the economy.
4. Employment Outlook: The labor market is still in balance, and obvious downside risks exist.
5. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates have not changed much; reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% to 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.
6. Explanation of Disagreement: It is expected that the dissenters will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut rates, and it is not surprising that there is disagreement.
7. Market Reaction: Little volatility in the market following the statement, during Powell's speech, the daily drop in gold expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; U.S. Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38%, and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; U.S. stocks faced pressure and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000.
8. Other Matters: Before the announcement, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates this time and indicated that it would do so in September.
9. Latest Expectations: Market bets on rate cuts have cooled; as of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the year is 36 basis points, down from 44 basis points before the decision.#美联储利率决议
1. Statement Overview: Maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time without change, in line with market expectations.
2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors voted against the decision.
3. Inflation Outlook: No changes made to the inflation wording, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated.
4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, with uncertainty about the outlook still high.
Powell Press Conference:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: Current policy position is favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting; cannot make decisions based on the June dot plot six weeks later, need to rely on data.
2. Inflation Outlook: June core PCE year-on-year increase may be 2.7%, overall PCE is expected to rise 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Federal Reserve's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be affected more by tariffs.
3. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a solid position, indicators show economic growth is slowing; does not believe the Inflation Reduction Act is particularly stimulating the economy.
4. Employment Outlook: The labor market is still in balance, and obvious downside risks exist.
5. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates have not changed much; reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% to 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.
6. Explanation of Disagreement: It is expected that the dissenters will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut rates, and it is not surprising that there is disagreement.
7. Market Reaction: Little volatility in the market following the statement, during Powell's speech, the daily drop in gold expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; U.S. Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38%, and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; U.S. stocks faced pressure and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000.
8. Other Matters: Before the announcement, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates this time and indicated that it would do so in September.
9. Latest Expectations: Market bets on rate cuts have cooled; as of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the year is 36 basis points, down from 44 basis points before the decision.#美联储利率决议
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MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor announced early this morning (30th) around 4 AM through the X platform that MicroStrategy has increased its holdings by $2.46 billion to purchase 21,021 bitcoins, with an average cost of $117,256. Currently, MicroStrategy's total bitcoin holdings have reached 628,791, accounting for about 3% of the global circulation.
The market value is estimated to be nearly $80 billion, far exceeding the accumulated cost of $46.8 billion. Despite MicroStrategy's ongoing accumulation, the price of bitcoin is still fluctuating at high levels, having once broken through $119,000 yesterday (29th) before retracing to around $118,200 to continue fluctuating!
The game of capital is truly interesting; when you think the price is high, institutions are still continuously buying in. This is the charm of capital that retail investors should deeply reflect on. The larger the capital, the bigger the actions; do not blindly follow. With whatever capital you have, use the corresponding strategy. In the case of not having a large overall position, it's best to focus on short-term trades to steadily increase your holdings, giving up on the dream of making dozens of times on long-term investments.
#btc
The market value is estimated to be nearly $80 billion, far exceeding the accumulated cost of $46.8 billion. Despite MicroStrategy's ongoing accumulation, the price of bitcoin is still fluctuating at high levels, having once broken through $119,000 yesterday (29th) before retracing to around $118,200 to continue fluctuating!
The game of capital is truly interesting; when you think the price is high, institutions are still continuously buying in. This is the charm of capital that retail investors should deeply reflect on. The larger the capital, the bigger the actions; do not blindly follow. With whatever capital you have, use the corresponding strategy. In the case of not having a large overall position, it's best to focus on short-term trades to steadily increase your holdings, giving up on the dream of making dozens of times on long-term investments.
#btc
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This week can be described as a 'super macro week', with a series of significant U.S. economic events being released intensively, which will significantly impact market trends:
Core Focus: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday, followed by a speech from Chairman Powell. The market is eagerly anticipating policy signals, and the outcome will have a decisive impact on market confidence and future expectations.
Key Data: This week will also reveal key macro data such as the PCE inflation index, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls ('big non-farm').
In terms of Ethereum, recent sell-off actions by the foundation have drawn attention, and the price performance around its tenth anniversary conference is also of great concern. Bitcoin is currently in a high-level sideways consolidation phase, with an unclear direction, waiting for guidance from this week's macro events.
Ethereum and altcoins have their trends highly dependent on macro direction. Whether to continue rising ('third wave') or enter a deep correction ('fourth wave') is crucial this week. During the main upward wave cycle driven by favorable Trump policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, short-term fluctuations or negative events (like a 'black swan') should be seen as disturbances.
The key is to manage return expectations and time effectively, maintaining position stability. Even if a correction occurs in August, its depth and duration are expected to be limited, making it a worthwhile opportunity to increase positions. Patience is the core advantage of retail investors. The best strategy is to wait for the key events of this week to conclude, and take action when the market direction becomes clear.
Currently, the market has not shown signs of frenzy (the absence of FOMO atmosphere). Large-scale inflows of outside capital and the peak characteristic of 'still not expensive even at higher levels' have not yet emerged. Indicators such as Bitcoin's market capitalization share and the altcoin season index also suggest that there is still room for upward movement in the market.
Historical experience shows that true market tops often occur when the majority of people are in a state of extreme excitement, believing that 'if you don't go all in now, it will be too late'.
#以太坊十周年 #ETH
Core Focus: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday, followed by a speech from Chairman Powell. The market is eagerly anticipating policy signals, and the outcome will have a decisive impact on market confidence and future expectations.
Key Data: This week will also reveal key macro data such as the PCE inflation index, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls ('big non-farm').
In terms of Ethereum, recent sell-off actions by the foundation have drawn attention, and the price performance around its tenth anniversary conference is also of great concern. Bitcoin is currently in a high-level sideways consolidation phase, with an unclear direction, waiting for guidance from this week's macro events.
Ethereum and altcoins have their trends highly dependent on macro direction. Whether to continue rising ('third wave') or enter a deep correction ('fourth wave') is crucial this week. During the main upward wave cycle driven by favorable Trump policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, short-term fluctuations or negative events (like a 'black swan') should be seen as disturbances.
The key is to manage return expectations and time effectively, maintaining position stability. Even if a correction occurs in August, its depth and duration are expected to be limited, making it a worthwhile opportunity to increase positions. Patience is the core advantage of retail investors. The best strategy is to wait for the key events of this week to conclude, and take action when the market direction becomes clear.
Currently, the market has not shown signs of frenzy (the absence of FOMO atmosphere). Large-scale inflows of outside capital and the peak characteristic of 'still not expensive even at higher levels' have not yet emerged. Indicators such as Bitcoin's market capitalization share and the altcoin season index also suggest that there is still room for upward movement in the market.
Historical experience shows that true market tops often occur when the majority of people are in a state of extreme excitement, believing that 'if you don't go all in now, it will be too late'.
#以太坊十周年 #ETH
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Yesterday, BTC experienced a slight pullback and consolidation. The 4-hour trend has recovered, showing oscillation and consolidation. The daily level has repaired well, and the trend is returning to a healthy state. Pay attention to changes in trading volume. The weekly trend has shown some recovery, so focus more on fundamental information. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation.
The second coin has started an independent market trend, with a good 4-hour performance, a slight pullback, and is poised for action. The daily level's trend is somewhat aggressive but has repaired well, with healthy trading volume. However, the short-term increase has been too rapid, so watch for volume conditions on the 4-hour chart, with expectations for the day to remain consolidated.
Altcoins are following mainstream trends and rising in sync. The altcoin index is maintaining a moderate level, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered. Pay attention to BTC's market share, fiat buying signals, and determine the signal for altcoins to initiate.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal levels, and the daily level has also returned to normal. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with intraday support at 117000-117500 and resistance at 119000-119500.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, while the daily level has entered the overbought zone. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with intraday support at 3700-3750 and resistance at 3850-3950.
#BTC #ETH
The second coin has started an independent market trend, with a good 4-hour performance, a slight pullback, and is poised for action. The daily level's trend is somewhat aggressive but has repaired well, with healthy trading volume. However, the short-term increase has been too rapid, so watch for volume conditions on the 4-hour chart, with expectations for the day to remain consolidated.
Altcoins are following mainstream trends and rising in sync. The altcoin index is maintaining a moderate level, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered. Pay attention to BTC's market share, fiat buying signals, and determine the signal for altcoins to initiate.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal levels, and the daily level has also returned to normal. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with intraday support at 117000-117500 and resistance at 119000-119500.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, while the daily level has entered the overbought zone. The expectation for the day is to maintain consolidation, with intraday support at 3700-3750 and resistance at 3850-3950.
#BTC #ETH
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Spot target: THE
Head concealment: about 0.417
Supplement concealment: 0.391
BNB has performed well recently, following its ecosystem. THE's 4-hour low divergence has formed, and a golden cross has formed on the 4-hour axis. After breaking through 0.43 on the daily level, there is no significant resistance above, and a high increase is expected. Can follow up and build concealment
#the #bnb
Head concealment: about 0.417
Supplement concealment: 0.391
BNB has performed well recently, following its ecosystem. THE's 4-hour low divergence has formed, and a golden cross has formed on the 4-hour axis. After breaking through 0.43 on the daily level, there is no significant resistance above, and a high increase is expected. Can follow up and build concealment
#the #bnb
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ETH, BNB, SOL, SUI, and ENA have each formed their own unique market strategies (micro strategies). Looking ahead, it is expected that only tokens with 'stock-like' attributes (i.e., tokens that have received continuous buying from U.S. institutional funds and strong capital control support) will maintain a strong correlation with Bitcoin (big pie). The correlation of other altcoins with Bitcoin will significantly weaken; once Bitcoin experiences a slight pullback, these altcoins may drop sharply (waterfall). Therefore, when the market pulls back, if you are uncertain about the bottoming targets, the aforementioned cryptocurrencies (ETH, BNB, SOL, SUI, ENA) are undoubtedly the relatively most stable choices. #ETH #sui
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The internal group recommended the password CFX on the 26th, and C today strongly dominated the top of the growth list at No.1 and No.2, both reaching the exit point.
The market in the next two months is particularly crucial, the door to the altcoin era has already opened, and opportunities are fleeting! Don't let hesitation hold back your dreams of wealth, and don't let the traps of worthless coins consume your capital! Your success, we are here to support you!
#CFX
The market in the next two months is particularly crucial, the door to the altcoin era has already opened, and opportunities are fleeting! Don't let hesitation hold back your dreams of wealth, and don't let the traps of worthless coins consume your capital! Your success, we are here to support you!
#CFX
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Yesterday BTC experienced a mild correction and consolidation. The 4-hour trend has repaired itself, with support at 118,000 remaining effective. If it holds, it is expected to continue rising. The daily level has repaired well, and the trend has returned to a healthy state. Pay attention to changes in trading volume. The weekly trend has shown some recovery, so focus more on fundamental information. The intraday expectation remains stable.
Altcoins have started independent trends, with a good 4-hour performance. There is a mild pullback, building momentum for a potential surge. The daily level trend is somewhat aggressive but currently has repaired well. Trading volume remains healthy, but the short-term increase has been rapid, so watch for volume expansion in the 4-hour chart. The intraday expectation remains in consolidation. Altcoins are following the mainstream upward trend, and the altcoin index remains at a moderate level. Market sentiment has improved, so pay attention to BTC's market share and fiat buying signals to determine altcoin launching signals.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, and the daily level has also returned to normal. The intraday expectation remains in consolidation. The intraday support is at 117,500-118,000, and the resistance is at 120,000-121,000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, while the daily level has entered the overbought zone. The intraday expectation remains in consolidation. The intraday support is at 3,700-3,750, and the resistance is at 3,850-3,950.
#BTC #ETH
Altcoins have started independent trends, with a good 4-hour performance. There is a mild pullback, building momentum for a potential surge. The daily level trend is somewhat aggressive but currently has repaired well. Trading volume remains healthy, but the short-term increase has been rapid, so watch for volume expansion in the 4-hour chart. The intraday expectation remains in consolidation. Altcoins are following the mainstream upward trend, and the altcoin index remains at a moderate level. Market sentiment has improved, so pay attention to BTC's market share and fiat buying signals to determine altcoin launching signals.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, and the daily level has also returned to normal. The intraday expectation remains in consolidation. The intraday support is at 117,500-118,000, and the resistance is at 120,000-121,000.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to normal, while the daily level has entered the overbought zone. The intraday expectation remains in consolidation. The intraday support is at 3,700-3,750, and the resistance is at 3,850-3,950.
#BTC #ETH
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Short-term news:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announcement at 2 AM on July 31 and the monetary policy speech at 2:30 AM are expected to mainly reflect a dragging situation, revealing little; the earliest estimate for a rate cut is also in September.
On August 1, July's non-farm payroll data will be released (secondary).
On August 1, the suspension of equivalent tariffs by the United States ends, amplifying market fears in advance; the implementation is slow. This morning, the United States and the European Union reached a 15% tariff agreement, which has already made the bears in the market start to panic. He often engages in such morally questionable markets, where each time the public opinion is very aggressive, but once implemented, he changes his stance. The speculation in the next few days will speed up, so pay more attention to the dynamics of the news.
#美国与欧盟达成关税协议
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announcement at 2 AM on July 31 and the monetary policy speech at 2:30 AM are expected to mainly reflect a dragging situation, revealing little; the earliest estimate for a rate cut is also in September.
On August 1, July's non-farm payroll data will be released (secondary).
On August 1, the suspension of equivalent tariffs by the United States ends, amplifying market fears in advance; the implementation is slow. This morning, the United States and the European Union reached a 15% tariff agreement, which has already made the bears in the market start to panic. He often engages in such morally questionable markets, where each time the public opinion is very aggressive, but once implemented, he changes his stance. The speculation in the next few days will speed up, so pay more attention to the dynamics of the news.
#美国与欧盟达成关税协议
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Recently, the enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market has surged, and Ethereum (ETH) is undoubtedly the absolute engine of this rally.
A key signal comes from its spot ETF: just last week (July 21-25), the Ethereum spot ETF recorded an astonishing net inflow of $1.85 billion. This is not a sporadic test of funds, but rather a large capital quietly and firmly establishing its position.
The giants leading this capital feast are particularly noteworthy: BlackRock: its ETHA product attracted $1.29 billion in a single week, with a historical total inflow reaching $9.35 billion, showcasing its leading position.
Fidelity: its FETH closely followed, with a net inflow of $383 million last week, continuously consolidating market share.
In stark contrast is the “veteran player” Grayscale’s ETHE, which faced a net outflow of $42.03 million last week.
The market is voting with real money — the flow of funds clearly distinguishes between “value providers” and “arbitrage exiters,” and investors' judgments on the advantages and disadvantages of fee structures and operational models are already self-evident. #ETH重返3800 #巨鲸动向
A key signal comes from its spot ETF: just last week (July 21-25), the Ethereum spot ETF recorded an astonishing net inflow of $1.85 billion. This is not a sporadic test of funds, but rather a large capital quietly and firmly establishing its position.
The giants leading this capital feast are particularly noteworthy: BlackRock: its ETHA product attracted $1.29 billion in a single week, with a historical total inflow reaching $9.35 billion, showcasing its leading position.
Fidelity: its FETH closely followed, with a net inflow of $383 million last week, continuously consolidating market share.
In stark contrast is the “veteran player” Grayscale’s ETHE, which faced a net outflow of $42.03 million last week.
The market is voting with real money — the flow of funds clearly distinguishes between “value providers” and “arbitrage exiters,” and investors' judgments on the advantages and disadvantages of fee structures and operational models are already self-evident. #ETH重返3800 #巨鲸动向
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