Yesterday, Powell's remarks were hawkish, and the hawkish stance was quite firm. A hawkish tone means there is not even a hint of dovishness. Therefore, the expectation for an interest rate cut in September is definitely going to decrease. As for the market, it is already good that there is not a widespread bearish sentiment. Although there was a spike in the early morning, the fact that it rebounded so quickly in response to such news is beyond expectations. This kind of trend proves that the bottom is very strong, and the capital is also resilient. It gives the impression that regardless of whether there will be an interest rate cut in September, I will just focus on my own buying, which does not affect the determination of retail investors to flood into the market.

Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference Key Points Summary:

1. Statement Overview: Maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time without change, in line with market expectations.

2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors voted against the decision.

3. Inflation Outlook: No changes made to the inflation wording, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated.

4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, with uncertainty about the outlook still high.

Powell Press Conference:

1. Interest Rate Outlook: Current policy position is favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting; cannot make decisions based on the June dot plot six weeks later, need to rely on data.

2. Inflation Outlook: June core PCE year-on-year increase may be 2.7%, overall PCE is expected to rise 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Federal Reserve's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be affected more by tariffs.

3. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a solid position, indicators show economic growth is slowing; does not believe the Inflation Reduction Act is particularly stimulating the economy.

4. Employment Outlook: The labor market is still in balance, and obvious downside risks exist.

5. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates have not changed much; reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% to 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.

6. Explanation of Disagreement: It is expected that the dissenters will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut rates, and it is not surprising that there is disagreement.

7. Market Reaction: Little volatility in the market following the statement, during Powell's speech, the daily drop in gold expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; U.S. Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38%, and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; U.S. stocks faced pressure and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000.

8. Other Matters: Before the announcement, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates this time and indicated that it would do so in September.

9. Latest Expectations: Market bets on rate cuts have cooled; as of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the year is 36 basis points, down from 44 basis points before the decision.#美联储利率决议