This week can be described as a 'super macro week', with a series of significant U.S. economic events being released intensively, which will significantly impact market trends:
Core Focus: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday, followed by a speech from Chairman Powell. The market is eagerly anticipating policy signals, and the outcome will have a decisive impact on market confidence and future expectations.
Key Data: This week will also reveal key macro data such as the PCE inflation index, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls ('big non-farm').
In terms of Ethereum, recent sell-off actions by the foundation have drawn attention, and the price performance around its tenth anniversary conference is also of great concern. Bitcoin is currently in a high-level sideways consolidation phase, with an unclear direction, waiting for guidance from this week's macro events.
Ethereum and altcoins have their trends highly dependent on macro direction. Whether to continue rising ('third wave') or enter a deep correction ('fourth wave') is crucial this week. During the main upward wave cycle driven by favorable Trump policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, short-term fluctuations or negative events (like a 'black swan') should be seen as disturbances.
The key is to manage return expectations and time effectively, maintaining position stability. Even if a correction occurs in August, its depth and duration are expected to be limited, making it a worthwhile opportunity to increase positions. Patience is the core advantage of retail investors. The best strategy is to wait for the key events of this week to conclude, and take action when the market direction becomes clear.
Currently, the market has not shown signs of frenzy (the absence of FOMO atmosphere). Large-scale inflows of outside capital and the peak characteristic of 'still not expensive even at higher levels' have not yet emerged. Indicators such as Bitcoin's market capitalization share and the altcoin season index also suggest that there is still room for upward movement in the market.
Historical experience shows that true market tops often occur when the majority of people are in a state of extreme excitement, believing that 'if you don't go all in now, it will be too late'.
