Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm payroll data is coming in heavy, previous value: 147,000, forecast: 110,000, unemployment rate previous value 4.1%, forecast: 4.2%. Every piece of data from now until September is crucial, as they will directly determine whether the interest rate cut will materialize in September; we must keep a close watch!
The current market is overall weak, caught in repeated fluctuations. Occasionally, some cryptocurrencies experience a 'spike' that triggers nerves, but it's merely a fleeting phenomenon. Retail investors are anxious and impatient, while the 'whales' are enjoying themselves. Those attempting to manipulate the 'sentiment-driven market' will ultimately be bitten back by market rules. The current situation is nothing but a blatant large-scale washout game. The 'whales' won’t allow retail investors to profit easily—beware of short-term volatility traps, and do not enter lightly.
Especially when the expectations for interest rate cuts are lowered, and the cracks within the Federal Reserve become clear, three factions are emerging:
The Doves: Worried about an imminent collapse of the job market, urgently calling for immediate monetary easing to save the market;
The Watchers: Want to observe the 'effects' of Trump’s tariffs and see if they can truly drag down the economy;
The Hardliners: Not shedding tears until they see the coffin, waiting for the economic data to deteriorate significantly before taking action.
However, interest rate cuts have become an unspoken endpoint. The real game lies in: When to cut? How to cut? What reason to provide for the cut?
