Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference Key Points Summary:

1. Statement Overview: Maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time without change, in line with market expectations.

2. Voting Disagreement: Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors voted against the decision.

3. Inflation Outlook: No changes made to the inflation wording, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated.

4. Economic Outlook: Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, with uncertainty about the outlook still high.

Powell Press Conference:

1. Interest Rate Outlook: Current policy position is favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting; cannot make decisions based on the June dot plot six weeks later, need to rely on data.

2. Inflation Outlook: June core PCE year-on-year increase may be 2.7%, overall PCE is expected to rise 2.5% year-on-year; most long-term inflation expectation indicators are consistent with the Federal Reserve's target; inflation is further from our target than employment; inflation data is expected to be affected more by tariffs.

3. Economic Outlook: The economy is in a solid position, indicators show economic growth is slowing; does not believe the Inflation Reduction Act is particularly stimulating the economy.

4. Employment Outlook: The labor market is still in balance, and obvious downside risks exist.

5. Tariff Impact: Most estimates of effective tariff rates have not changed much; reasonable to speculate that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary; 30% to 40% of core inflation comes from tariffs; it is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.

6. Explanation of Disagreement: It is expected that the dissenters will explain their opinions in the next day or two; two members believe it is time to cut rates, and it is not surprising that there is disagreement.

7. Market Reaction: Little volatility in the market following the statement, during Powell's speech, the daily drop in gold expanded to $50, and the dollar rose; U.S. Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.38%, and the 2-year yield approaching 4%; U.S. stocks faced pressure and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000.

8. Other Matters: Before the announcement, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates this time and indicated that it would do so in September.

9. Latest Expectations: Market bets on rate cuts have cooled; as of the time of writing, the probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from about 60% before the rate decision; the pricing for rate cuts for the year is 36 basis points, down from 44 basis points before the decision.#美联储利率决议