币富日记-HTXD928

数据显示，9月份美联储降息的概率为89.1%，不出意外，9月将会迎来今年的首次降息，新的一轮行情要来了

BTC shows a short-term bottom divergence signal. You can buy around the current price of 113970, just leave a position for averaging down. At least there will be a rebound, let's go go go!

Major pullbacks in a bull market are rare and certain profit opportunities.

It is often said that money is made in a bear market (buying at low prices) and lost in a bull market (getting stuck after chasing highs). In fact, there is a faster and more certain window for making money: the golden pit in a bull market.

What you need to do now:

1. Look at the tokens you wanted to buy before but were afraid of chasing highs; this gives you a safe opportunity to get in.

2. During the downturn, observe which tokens have strong support (others are falling but this one is either not falling or still slightly rising), and which tokens are falling like a waterfall. These tokens are the certain targets to shift your weak tokens into strong ones. (For example, this time with $ton)

Viewpoint Update
Since buying the dip in US stocks on April 7th, I have been bullish on US stocks and the crypto market. However, yesterday I felt a slight danger for the first time, reduced most of my positions, and published a bearish viewpoint for the following reasons:
1. After more than ten days of consolidation, BTC chose to break down
2. Microsoft/Meta opened significantly higher but then declined, and Coinbase plummeted after hours. This wave of growth began with the sharp drop caused by uncertainties in the trade war, and after the trade agreement eliminated uncertainties, profits began to be realized
3. The magnitude of BTC's new highs is getting smaller; after BTC broke 110,000, it started to retrace at 123,000, indicating that prices above 120,000 lack attractiveness

Outlook for the future market:
1. Currently, we will see a deep correction; BTC at 123,000 may not be the highest point, but it is within the upper range
2. ETH will be the only cryptocurrency I am firmly bullish on; after the correction, it still has a high chance of breaking 4,000 or even reaching a historical high. ETH will suck the life out of altcoins, and the SOL ecosystem will collapse
3. The crypto market has not absorbed the liquidity from US stocks; instead, US stocks have withdrawn liquidity from the crypto market through ETFs and crypto stocks. The performance of US stocks will be much better than that of the crypto market.

Let's Talk $eth>>

① If the rebound fails to materialize now and does not rise above the 3570 line, there is still a significant probability it could rebound. However, this rebound may only be a minor one with limited upward movement; it's up to you to decide whether to seize the opportunity. The effective rebound position should be around the 3530 line.

② Where will this round of significant adjustment go? What can we expect? There are two positions, and I am not sure which one it will be. One is around the 3520 line, and the other is around the 3460 line. I do not expect it to go much deeper. Additionally, note that the 3460 line is precisely where Ethereum has a recent gap in the CME futures. The next major gap position is around the 3080 line; personally, I believe this position will take several months of grinding to reach, so don’t fantasize about it in the short term.

③ If the current movement is a rebound, breaking through the 3650 line will look towards the 3690 line. At that time, the effective pressure range will be 【3690-3700】. If the price encounters resistance and falls back at the 3650 line, then it will look down to the 3570 line.

August has begun, a month of market fluctuations is often a season of on-chain activity.

In July, we saw

The rise of the Bonk ecosystem on Solana $Ani counterattacking $Uranus
The NFT token $REKT on ETH skyrocketing beyond imagination
$Zora at the bottom with 10x on Base
$Totakeke, the dark Cheems on BSC

We also saw other new chain opportunities
Abs chain $Abster
SEI chain $MAD
IP chain $LARRY

Let's charge into August!

Last night's spot-futures divergence indeed had some effect, with prices breaking down to a new short-term low once again. What happened behind the scenes is that Trump has once again taken on the role of 'Mr. Tax'...

However, as the pullback unfolds, the spot premium has once again shown a bottom divergence, releasing short-term risks...

The market over the past three weeks still looks like a descending wedge, so it can be considered a volatile market. There should be a demand for a rebound in the short term, but there is still no significant trend direction in the long term. Let's continue to wait~

Together emmm, this IP is pretty good, a hippo on the BSC chain, and easier to fomo, with a market cap of around 9m now, has been rising since launch, a bit of a conspiratorial flavor, ambushing a wave

ca: 0x11471f07151142960b2c008d86865798d69c4444

Currently, there is a serious divergence between bulls and bears. I have made a hedging trade, going long on ETH and shorting a basket of altcoins, with a position approximately 1:1. I would like to discuss and share my thoughts with everyone.

My logic is that ETH is the engine of this round of increase that started at the end of June, with two main driving forces: first, institutions emulating MicroStrategy by purchasing ETH through stock and cryptocurrency financing; second, the stablecoin narrative, where ETH is the core infrastructure and settlement layer involved.

Referring to MicroStrategy's previous purchase of BTC, which drove the price up, most altcoins ended up far behind Bitcoin. The funds that stocks and institutions use to buy ETH are also unlikely to spill over into other altcoins.

According to data from CMC, in the past 30 days, only 20 of the Top 200 tokens have increased more than ETH, including Bonk, Zora, CFX, ENA, which are clearly driven by favorable events.

In terms of altcoin selection, following the logic of previous short positions, I prioritize those with relatively high market caps, non-leading tokens, weak performance, and low presence, while diversifying shorts and setting stop-loss orders to prevent a single asset from surging.

If the market continues to go bullish in the second half of the year, I believe there is a high probability that it will still be driven by ETH. If it goes bearish, I also don't think altcoins can stand alone, while ETH at least has institutional buying power to support it. The scenarios that could lead to this hedging strategy becoming ineffective are either the arrival of an altcoin season where most altcoins consistently outperform ETH, or ETH experiencing fluctuations or leading declines, while other altcoins don't drop much. Based on my experience in the past few months, I believe this likelihood is quite low.

Coinbase Causing Chaos in the Crypto Sphere
1. Coinbase's Q2 report fell short of expectations, plunging 8% in after-hours trading
2. BTC fell below 116,500 for the first time yesterday but could not recover, which is a very dangerous signal for short-term market trends, indicating that the balance of bulls and bears after more than ten days of consolidation has been broken, leaning towards a bearish trend; if BTC cannot return to 118,000, it will face a deeper correction
3. ETH's medium to long-term trend remains very healthy and will also follow BTC's correction in the short term.

The narrative climax of this wave of increase has ended, and it did not occur in the cryptocurrency circle, but in the US stock market, where the explosive rise of cryptocurrency stocks has replaced altcoins.

Since April 7, BTC has risen by a maximum of 65%, US stock SBET has risen by a maximum of 5000%, BMNR by 4000%, and various US stocks that have been converted to cryptocurrency stocks have surged, resembling the market frenzy of inscriptions and MEME across various public chains at that time.

Recently, there has been a bullish sentiment towards ETH, while a bearish sentiment towards SOL. SOL is forming a weekly head and shoulders pattern, and its eventual decline may exceed everyone's expectations.