The market is facing selling pressure, potentially laying the groundwork for price declines.
XRP has officially fallen below the dollar today, marking an unexpected bearish milestone for many. Its current trading price is around $2.92, having steadily declined from above $3.70 in July. The trend is evident: $3 is no longer the bottom as it once was, and bulls are no longer in control.
The price has now broken through the 26-day moving average, with little resistance to downward pressure. The moderate trading volume during this pullback may indicate that the market is not panicking, but it also suggests that buying interest is low. The RSI is currently hovering around the low 40s, indicating that momentum is weakening, having fallen below the neutral zone, confirming a downward trend.
What does this mean for investors? First, the narrative around $3 needs to be discarded. Clinging to this threshold will obscure traders' view of the market's true structure, but it is a crucial psychological milestone in the rebound process. Several retests have failed to hold $3, which should be seen as evidence that this area is currently acting as resistance rather than support. A small cluster of historical support and the 50-day moving average are converging in the $2.70 to $2.60 range, which is the next area to watch.
If XRP finds support in the $2.30 to $2.20 range, it may retest that range, but if it breaks below this level, it may stabilize. The upward momentum of XRP has weakened. Holding above the $3 price point will only delay rational position allocation. If buyers do not appear soon, the downward trend may intensify. Instead of clinging to broken price points, it is better to adjust based on chart trends.
Ethereum is under pressure.
Ethereum once peaked just below $4,000 and has now entered a necessary correction phase. Given that the RSI indicator is overheated (peaking at 78, which is uncommon in trending markets), the recent downward trend is not entirely surprising. However, the 26-day moving average (EMA) is entering the market and may become the first significant support level since this breakout.
Ethereum has dropped nearly 10% from its local high and is currently trading close to $3,620. Despite the accumulation of bearish candles, the asset remains well above its major moving averages. The 26-day moving average is closing in rapidly. If selling pressure begins to ease, the 26-day moving average (around $3,480) could provide a lifeline for ETH, offering a chance for consolidation rather than further declines.
The volume curve shows that selling pressure persists but has not surged, indicating that this is more of a market cooling off rather than a panic sell-off. Additionally, the RSI has retreated to 61, pulling ETH out of the danger zone and into a more neutral position, with the potential for a rebound.
If the 26-day moving average (EMA) holds, ETH may find a new support level or lay the groundwork for the next upward move. Conversely, if the 26-day moving average (EMA) fails to hold, the $3,000 level (where the 50-day moving average is located, historically a reliable support level during correction phases) will be the next area to watch. Ethereum is currently in a cooling phase, but it has not collapsed.
The 26-day moving average is currently a critical technical indicator that can determine whether ETH can maintain a healthy pullback or faces further decline risks. In the coming days, the $3,480 to $3,500 range should be the focus.
Bitcoin has plummeted.
The $120,000 threshold now appears more like a ceiling than a stepping stone, as Bitcoin has officially fallen below it. Failing to strongly break through the resistance level, Bitcoin's price has dropped over 7% from its local high and is currently trading around $114,798.
At least for the time being, the retreat from this psychological level signifies a shift in bullish sentiment. The evident weakening of momentum is more concerning for bulls. With each attempt to break the $120,000 barrier resulting in shrinking trading volume, buying interest has declined. The bullish momentum is no longer effective, as the relative strength index (RSI) has dropped below 60, confirming this.
The 26-day moving average is just above $111,800, serving as the next line of defense. During the recent uptrend in Bitcoin, this level has been a reliable short-term support. If Bitcoin can rebound significantly from the 26-day moving average, it may attempt to approach the resistance level again. However, if it fails to hold the resistance level, the pullback may further test the 50-day moving average, which is around $107,000, where there may be stronger support. Currently, the $120,000 level remains uncertain.
This rejection is not only technical but also supported by macro factors such as the U.S. economy regaining strength. Unless Bitcoin shows a strong rebound at the 26-day moving average support level, investors should prepare for consolidation or further declines.
Without a significant rebound, it will be challenging to support another upward move in the short term, but a rebound may maintain a bullish structure. In summary: $120,000 has temporarily become history. Before investors start looking for new highs, Bitcoin must regain balance and maintain crucial support levels.
