交易者林潇

Repost! Don't miss the treasure post

Don't let the current market fluctuations shake your confidence. I firmly believe: the current sluggish situation is merely the darkness before dawn, and soon my predictions will be validated! The subtle movements in the market are already clear, and the big players are sparing no effort to use various strategies to lower prices, intending to force retail investors to sell in panic. However, if we look towards a broader future, it is not difficult to find that this pullback is just a trivial setback in the rising curve of the 'big market'!

The essence of the market reveals: the pullback actually hides secrets, it is a bait set by the big players, while the real rebound wave is ready to surge. The little cleverness of the big players, trying to profit from short-term fluctuations, often overlooks the power of the market's long-term trends.

Many fans are curious why you focus on Bitcoin, the reason is that I have deeply cultivated in the Bitcoin field, adhering to the principle of 'professional matters lead to excellence'. For others, it is not that I do not dabble, but due to considerations of market stability and my own professional expertise, I choose to concentrate my efforts on the skill of Bitcoin, striving to achieve the realm of mastery. After all, each profession has its specialization, and focus is essential to achieve excellence. #特朗普暂停新关税 $BTC

Evening Analysis of Bitcoin Operations on June 25

Bitcoin fell from the high of 1060, showing a clear downtrend. The EMA30 moving average has been pressing down, and the price is operating below the moving average, which is turning downward, confirming the downtrend signal. However, after hitting the bottom, a rebound began, and the price crossed above the EMA30 moving average. The moving average is gradually flattening and turning upward; now the price is above the moving average, which has become short-term support for the bulls. The MACD indicator is also cooperating; during the downtrend, the low green bars were long and persistent, dominated by bears; after the rebound, the green bars shortened and disappeared, while the red bars lengthened, with the MACD line crossing upward, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening, and there are signs of a trend reversal.

Resistance: The current price is around 1051. Looking upward, there are selling pressures at previous levels of 1060 and 1089. If it attempts to rise, it may easily encounter resistance from bears.
Support: The recent bottom of 9818 is a key defense level for the bulls; in the short term, the corresponding level of EMA30 at 1034 is the trend support. When the price falls back, it can also find support between 1030 and 1040. If it cannot hold, the rebound momentum may weaken.

Long Position: If the price can stabilize above 1051, the first resistance to watch is at 1060. If it retraces, consider entering a long position near 1034, relying on the moving average support to bet on a rebound.

Short Position: If the price breaks below 1051 and cannot hold 1034, look down at support levels around 1015. When the rebound lacks strength, you can plan to open short positions; additionally, if it rebounds to around 1060 and meets resistance, you can also try to short, capturing the pullback at the resistance level.

June 24 Morning Operation Analysis

The 4-hour candlestick pattern shows a typical consolidation. This stage is often a key point for both bulls and bears to build momentum.
The midline of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands is currently at this position, serving as the "dividing line" between bulls and bears in a volatile market. If the price rebounds but fails to hold above the midline, it will continue the weak trend and may even trigger a new round of decline. The persistent death cross, which has been below the zero axis for 8 cycles, indicates that the short-term downtrend remains unchanged. Although the histogram is in the negative range, the recent continuous decrease in volume suggests that bearish momentum is waning. However, there has not yet been a "bullish divergence" signal where the price makes a new low while the MACD histogram rises, so we cannot prematurely determine a reversal. If the histogram expands downwards again, the bears will restart their offensive; conversely, if the histogram narrows for two consecutive days and the price breaks through 106,000, it may trigger a bullish counterattack.

Short Selling: If the price breaks below 1031 and the MACD histogram accelerates downwards again, forming a "second bottom" pattern, it is recommended to target 1014-998 with a stop loss at 1045.

Going Long: If it breaks 106 with volume and holds the 4-hour closing price, and the MACD histogram narrows for two consecutive days, it is recommended to try going long with light positions at 1058-106, taking profit at 108-104, with a stop loss at 104. If it falls below 104,000, exit decisively to avoid being deeply trapped, as this is a continuation of the downtrend.

Dear friends! Look at the accuracy of the evening strategy! Every key point is clearly marked and backed by evidence, and the market trend completely verifies the prediction! Fans following the strategy have already reaped a bountiful harvest, this wave of dividends is securely in hand, and the strength of the verification shows that we are here to share the profits with everyone! #以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC

Evening Operation Analysis for June 23

Although the price touched a low of 981 yesterday and closed with a long lower shadow, followed by a series of small upward candles, it appears to indicate a rebound. However, in essence, this is a technical correction after an oversold condition, not a signal of a trend reversal. The bearish trend remains evident, with 1025-103 acting as a moving average resistance. If a rebound hits this resistance, it indicates that the bearish strength is still strong. The short-term support at 9818 is the recent low and also the starting point for the oversold rebound. If it breaks down, it will likely test the previous lows of 95000 - 96000, and the bears can continue to look for further declines. However, if the price falls back to the strong support zone of 98-10, there will definitely be attempts to buy the dip, which might trigger a minor rebound. But under the overall downward trend, such rebounds are unlikely to gain momentum and are more likely to be 'small skirmishes'. The MACD dual lines continue to hover at low levels, and although the green bars have shortened, there has been no golden cross. What does this indicate? The bearish momentum has not been completely released, and the current rebound feels more like a struggle at the 'end of a strong bow'. The bullish momentum is weak, making it difficult to drive a trend reversal.

During the rebound process, the trading volume of K-line has not significantly increased, showing low willingness for capital entry. Without substantial inflows of real money, this rebound is like 'a duckweed without roots', leaning more towards a technical oversold pullback rather than a trend reversal signal; do not be fooled by small upward candles.

Short Position: If the price rebounds to around 1025-103 and shows a top divergence, decisively set up a short position, targeting first at 99-98. If it breaks down, look towards 9818. Stop-loss at 104.

Long Position: Wait for a breakout above 104, and confirm a trend reversal signal with a MACD golden cross before entering a long position. Target 1055-107. Otherwise, the current rebound may just be a 'continuation of the decline', and blindly trying to buy the dip may easily result in 'catching falling knives', leading to substantial losses. Stop-loss at 102#以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC .

June 22 Midday Operation Analysis

From the 4-hour candlestick chart, there are recent signs of a rise followed by a pullback and oscillating downward. The MACD indicator's green bars have not significantly shortened, and the bearish momentum has not yet weakened; combined with the current price hovering around 1025, if it can quickly increase volume and stabilize above 1025, the rebound is expected to continue to test the upper resistance; conversely, if it breaks down, it is likely to explore lower support levels. In terms of operations, strictly monitor 1025, and make corresponding long or short positions based on the breakthrough/breakdown situation, while controlling positions and stop losses.

Long Position: If the price stabilizes above 1025, a minor upward rebound is possible, with upper resistance levels at 1032 and 1041. If these levels are stabilized, we can gradually look for higher levels. A long position can be attempted with a light position after stabilizing at the key level, with the stop loss set below the key level.

Short Position: If it breaks below 1025, and the minor upward rebound lacks strength, the lower support levels are at 1013, 1002, and 995. After breaking the key level, consider taking a light short position when the rebound faces resistance, with the stop loss set above the key level.

#波段交易策略 $BTC

June 22nd Big Pancake Morning Operation Analysis

From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the Big Pancake has recently been in a volatile downward trend. A few days ago, it surged to 1089 and has since declined, with some minor rebounds, but the overall focus has been consistently moving downwards, with bearish forces dominating the market recently. However, around 10086, there has been some support signaling a temporary stabilization, with a slight rebound action. 1042 is showing a downward inclination, currently operating below the EMA30 moving average, indicating a bearish mid-term trend.

Going Long: If it pulls back to around 1008 - 1015 and shows a clear stop-loss signal, consider taking a light long position. Target towards 1042-106, stop-loss at 1005.

Going Short: When it rebounds to around 1042 and shows signs of stagnation, consider taking a light short position. Target 1015-10086 breaking down to look at 10, stop-loss at 1045. Regardless of long or short operations, strictly manage profit-taking and stop-loss.

#美国国债 $BTC 6 June 21 Evening Operation Analysis

From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the recent trend of Bitcoin has shown a pattern of fluctuating downward followed by a weak rebound. From June 11 to 13, there was a rapid decline, followed by a period of range-bound trading. After a brief surge on June 17, it fell back again, with the overall bearish sentiment dominating recently. However, during the decline, there were also attempts from bulls to counterattack, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. It can be seen that the EMA30 is currently at the 1046 position, while Bitcoin at 1037 is below the moving average, indicating a short-term bearish trend. The moving averages continue to operate downward, exerting pressure on prices. If the price wants to rebound, it needs to break through the pressure of the EMA30 moving average. Although the MACD has shown slight convergence, it remains in the bearish range overall, indicating that bearish momentum has shown signs of weakening but has not completely reversed yet.

Short-term strong support: 1022 is the recent low point of the decline, where the price has gained significant support for a rebound, making it a key defensive level for bulls. If it tests this level again and holds, it may trigger a rebound; if it breaks down effectively, the lower space may open further, looking at the previous low of the range.

Short-term pressure: 1046 is the current moving average pointing downward, and the price is operating below it. A short-term rebound that touches this moving average is likely to encounter bearish selling pressure. The trading volume during the breakout can be observed; if it breaks out with increased volume, the pressure level can turn into support, with the upper space looking towards the next pressure level.

Going Long: If the price retraces to the 1022 support level and the candlestick forms clear reversal signals like a hammer or morning star, while the MACD green bars continue to shorten. A light long position can be attempted in the 1023 - 1025 range, with a stop-loss set near 1022 and a target towards 1046-106.

Going Short: If the price rebounds to the 1046 pressure level and the candlestick forms bearish signals like a hanging man or evening star, with the MACD red bars shortening or turning. A light short position can be attempted in the 1045 - 1047 range. The stop-loss can be set at 105, with a protective stop-loss at 1052 in case of a low probability breakout to the upside, targeting towards 103-1022 for staggered profit-taking.

Evening Operation Analysis on June 19

Current price of Bitcoin is 1047, and the market is showing a downward trend with price in a consolidation phase, under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band. However, the support below is currently effective. The MACD indicates a slight increase in bullish strength, but no strong reversal signal has formed yet, and the overall trend remains to be further clarified.
Support Level: 103, near today's low; if broken, watch for 102-1025. If it retraces again, it will receive strong support. Resistance Level: 1053, near today's high; if broken here, it may encounter resistance. Second Resistance Level: 1062 - 1065, this area is under pressure from the 20/50/100 moving averages and is also an important resistance level from earlier.

Long Position: When it stabilizes near 1035 during a pullback, a light position can be taken to go long, with a stop loss set at 103, targeting 1045 - 1053.

Short Position: If it rebounds and encounters resistance near 1053, a light position can be taken to go short, with a stop loss set above 1058, targeting 104 - 1035.

#鲍威尔发言 $BTC

Evening Operational Analysis on June 18

Currently, Bitcoin is at 1044, down 0.52% from the previous K-line. In the last 24 hours, it reached a high of 1053 and a low of 1041, showing a 'volatile downward' trend, with short-term bearish sentiment dominating the market. Among the last 5 four-hour K-lines, there are 3 bearish lines and 2 bullish lines, with bearish line bodies generally larger than bullish ones, indicating the strength of the bears. The first resistance level is 1051; if the price breaks this level, it will test the dense area of positions near 1056, which may trigger short-seller stop-losses. The second resistance level is 1067, which forms a medium-term trend resistance; a volume breakthrough is needed to confirm a bullish reversal. The first support level is 1042, a low point and the intraday bullish defense line; if this level is broken, it may trigger short-term bullish stop-losses and accelerate the decline. The second support level is 1031#我的交易风格 $BTC

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Bitcoin Says Goodbye to the Bear Market: A Shift in Investment Logic for a New Era

Bitcoin's market capitalization has surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, and after more than a decade of development, it is迎来 a critical turning point. Industry insiders represented by Michael Saylor assert that: Bitcoin is no longer in a bear market. This perspective is based on a multi-dimensional transformation of the market.

The institutional wave reshapes the supply and demand landscape. After the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted substantial funds, with quarterly inflows far exceeding miner production, fundamentally changing the market supply-demand relationship. The continuous influx of institutional funds has eliminated the traditional basis for bear markets driven by retail panic and miner sell-offs. Today, price corrections of 20% - 30% are more akin to normal market fluctuations rather than systemic collapses.

The operational logic of the market has also undergone fundamental changes. The early volatility in Bitcoin prices was driven by speculative games; now, long-term holding strategies by companies like MicroStrategy have severed the risk chain of "forced selling." At the same time, the market's expectations for "halving" have been fully digested, significantly reducing its impact on prices. From market data, Bitcoin's historical and implied volatility has significantly decreased, and the magnitude of corrections is much smaller than in past bear markets, with price movements increasingly resembling those of mature assets.

Network effects and regulatory environments further consolidate Bitcoin's stability. An increasing number of institutions view it as an inflation hedge and a risk diversification asset, leading to a rise in the proportion of long-term holders and a decrease in selling pressure. The global regulatory framework is gradually becoming clearer, and the policy risk premium continues to decline.

For ordinary investors, Bitcoin's "bull market norm" offers a robust investment option, but the short-term potential of altcoins should not be overlooked. Altcoins have the potential for high multiples of growth in the short term, complementing Bitcoin's long-term value investment. Investors should reasonably allocate these two types of assets based on their goals, positions, and timing to seize new opportunities in the digital asset market. #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC

June 17th Afternoon Operation Analysis

Let's first look at the 4-hour chart. The price of Bitcoin is hovering around 1074. The key point is whether it can break through 1077. This is a turning point on the 1-2 hour level; if it stabilizes, then the pullback is considered complete; otherwise, it will still be stuck below.

The market now resembles a triangular convergence, nearing its end. I estimate that in the next 3-5 four-hour candlesticks, a direction will need to be chosen. Remember that a breakout must be accompanied by volume; breakouts without volume are false. When trading, don't exceed a 5% position; wait for a clear breakout before taking action. Being cautious isn't a bad thing. Strong support is at 105, which is supported by the low from April; if it breaks below, be careful. The upper range of 108-1086 is a dense area of positions; breaking through here signifies strength.
From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the MACD has been reducing volume for two days, resembling the feeling before a big move in a battle; a trend change may be imminent.

Going Long: To go long, wait for a volume breakout above 1076, and the 4-hour close must be above 1086 to be considered stable. You can enter in batches between 1076-108, with an initial target of 1095, then aiming for 111, and if it's aggressive, it could reach 1125. However, if it falls below 1068, withdraw quickly; don't hold on stubbornly.

Going Short: To go short, wait for a drop below 1068, and the MACD must confirm a death cross. You can enter when it rebounds between 1065-107, with an initial target of dropping to 105, then looking further down to 1035. However, if it rebounds and breaks above 1076, cut losses and exit; don't linger in the battle.

Evening operation analysis on June 16

From the 4-hour candlestick chart, a double bottom structure has formed in the 1053 area over the last 8 periods, and the current price has broken through the short-term downtrend line (previous high 107061). In terms of volume, the contraction during the decline and the increase during the rebound is a relatively positive signal. The current price is 1071, and it is building a bottom for a rebound. The current short-term resistance is at 1076 and 1086, while the key support levels are 1053 and 1046.

Going long: If it stabilizes above 1076, enter at 1077 - 108, targeting 1086, 1097, and 1112. However, if it falls below 1065, remember to cut losses in time.

Going short: Action can be taken if it breaks below the neck line at 1053. Set a position at 105 - 104, targeting 1035 and 1015, and cut losses if it rebounds above 106.

Risk control: The ultimate defense level is the 1046 double bottom neck line, while 1065 - 107 is a dynamic buffer zone, and 1086 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. The meat is already on the plate; whether to eat it or not is your choice #Metaplanet增持比特币 $BTC

June 16 Morning Operation Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 1052 with narrow movements, and the last 6 candlesticks have been oscillating between 105K and 105.5K. The bulls and bears are locked in a stalemate, having tested the 105 support level three times without breaking it. It’s just a matter of who will make the first move to break the deadlock! The bearish pressure points are firmly defending the two lines at 1055 and 1062, while the bullish support levels are at 1049 and 1042, with the critical bottom at 104-1042 being verified multiple times.

Long Position: Enter when stabilizing above 106, can buy at 1056-1058, initially targeting 1062 and 107. If it drops below 105, cut losses!

Short Position: If it breaks below 1049, can short at 1048-105, targeting 1042 and 1035. If it rebounds above 105, set a stop loss at 105.300!

In a fluctuating market, don't chase blindly; wait for an effective breakout before taking action, and always maintain a stop loss! The overall trend is still upward, and any pullback could be an opportunity to enter.

The market has started again, the short position opened at 105 on Friday, 104 didn't move, and it just shot up to 106, which brought the average price to 1053. Is the market giving me a chance to escape, or is it going to test the bottom again? Brothers, what do you think, should I run or not? I will share my thoughts later! #特朗普比特币金库 $BTC

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 $BTC 6 June 15 Midday Operation Analysis

From the 4-hour K-line perspective, the price is 1055, in a slow recovery state. The key resistance level above is at 1060, which is the resistance formed by the recent highs; the support level below is at 1046, where a triple bottom structure has formed, providing strong support.

At the weekly level, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after a 5.5% pullback from a high of 1117. The MACD indicator shows that the histogram is converging for the third time below the zero axis, which is usually a signal that the market may change direction. Meanwhile, there is a potential divergence at the 4-hour level—when the price made a new low, the MACD indicator did not make a new low simultaneously, which is a typical bottom signal. The resistance zone is between 1046-1053, with resistance at 1060 and 1065; only a breakout of this range can confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.

Operation Strategy

Long Position: If the Bitcoin price closes steadily above 1059, after breaking through the 1059-1062 price range, further upward movement is expected. The target levels are 1068, 1075, 1082; if the price falls below 105, it is recommended to stop loss and exit.

Short Position: When the price's body falls below 1046, the previous support levels of 104 and 1045 will turn into resistance after the price breaks below. The target levels are 1032 and 102; if the price rebounds to 1053, it is recommended to stop loss and exit.

Morning Operation Analysis on June 15

Current price is 105,472.8, slightly rising, overall showing a fluctuating upward trend. Yesterday, it rebounded from 104,287, confirming a breakthrough of the short-term descending channel, turning into a fluctuating upward movement; currently forming a small W bottom pattern, with a neck line breakthrough being the key signal for bulls to attack. The MACD dual lines are converging near the zero axis, with an unclear direction; although there was a bottom divergence three days ago, the current green bars are weakly expanding, and caution is needed for a potential bearish counterattack. The neck line position of the small W bottom at 105,650 is also the most direct resistance level now, at 105,65, this position will become an important resistance for bulls to further rise. The support level of the triple bottom structure at 104,650 has been tested three times without breaking, serving as a key defense line for bulls, while 103,8 serves as a lower level support; if 104,650 is lost, the price may drop further. Note: The current price is at the end of a triangular convergence, with narrowing fluctuations, it is recommended to test with a light position (1-2%) and add positions after a breakout;

Operation Ideas

Long: Can enter around 1057-106, target: first target at 1068, second target at 107;
Stop Loss: Exit decisively if it falls below 105.

Short: Can enter around 1043-1046, target: first target at 1035, second target at 1028, stop loss if it rebounds and breaks above 1052 immediately.

If you follow along, give a thumbs up, and stay tuned for real-time market updates in the comments section.

June 14th Afternoon Analysis

This afternoon, let's analyze the 4-hour K-line trend of Bitcoin. The current Bitcoin price is 1054, down 0.56% from before, and it is in a narrow range of fluctuations. From the chart, it is clear that the bears are significantly stronger, with the MACD indicator's dual lines below the zero axis, and the energy bars have been negative for 8 consecutive periods and are continuously lengthening, indicating that the bearish trend is strengthening.

Key levels to watch: Bear Fortress (Resistance Level) 1067, a breakthrough is necessary to turn bullish; key support at 1042, a drop below this level essentially means a bear frenzy. The 20-period moving average is at 1063, and the price is currently 'underwater', which is not very optimistic.

Operational strategy:
Short: If the closing price falls below 1049, enter around 105 - 1054, with the target set at 1043-1035-1028, and stop loss at 106;

Long: Unless there is a significant breakout above 1068 + MACD golden cross, a try can be made between 1065-1068, with a target of 1076-1087 and a stop loss at 1058.

#加密市场回调 $BTC

I'm still too greedy, 1000 points of space isn't enough for me to eat
As a result, it rebounded, so thrilling like a roller coaster～

Moreover, I added to my position, and now it's just about the opening price

Today I am optimistic about around 104, feeling that the sideways market tomorrow won't be big
It may rebound to 105 again, I need to patiently wait for the right moment to act
When I act, I must grasp it firmly!

#加密市场回调 $BTC